川滇M≥6.7强震的二维坐标系与时间预测研究

20世纪以来,川滇地区M≥6.7强震时间间隔具有良好的规律性,其地震发生的年份可组成一个二维时间坐标系,并据此建立川滇地区的强震时间预测模型。预测分析表明：未来16年,川滇地区可能存在发生4次6.7级以上地震发生的风险,2012-2021及2025-2029年均有M≥6.7强震信号,且未来强震可能发生在2014-2015、2019与2027年前后。     

一种改进的SAR影像边缘检测方法

由于SAR影像具有乘性相干斑噪声,某些对光学影像有较好检测性能的边缘检测算子,对于SAR影像并不适用,因此本文提出了一种将改进后的Ratio算子与Canny算子相组合的新方法。首先采用多种客观评价指标,得出经典方法中的Lee滤波能有效去除噪声,且最大限度保留了梯度信息,适用于边缘检测;然后对边缘检测具有恒虚警特性的Ratio算子进行改进,改进后的算子更利于影像归一化处理;最后利用改进后的Ratio算子与Canny算子组合成新方法。试验结果证明,组合后的新方法显著提高了边缘检测正确率和定位精度,改善了边缘连续性,具有一定的有效性和实用性。     

中国格点化日降水极值统计模型及阈值的选取

采用年最大值法（AM）及超阈值峰量法（POT）分别构建基于0.5°×0.5°网格的全国地面日降水极值序列,建立基于广义极值分布（GEV）和广义帕累托分布（GPD）的降水极值统计模型,通过K-S检验评估模型拟合效果,研究全国日降水极值的统计规律及其空间分布特征,提出适用于不同地区极端日降水的极值分布模型与阈值选取标准,结果表明：(1)POT序列比AM序列更符合降水极值序列的要求;(2)为便于比较并提高模型拟合效果,POT序列的阈值由百分位数法确定效果较好;(3)阈值方案优选结果在空间分布上与中国干湿区域的划分有很好的相关性,在湿润地区宜将第90～94百分位数作为阈值,在半湿润和半干旱地区宜将第94～97百分位数作为阈值,在干旱地区则使用第97～99百分位数较为合适。     

通化盆地下白垩统烃源岩石油地质特征及生烃潜力研究

通化盆地是松辽盆地东部外围的油气远景区之一,烃源岩发育特征和生烃潜力等问题未知,制约着盆地基础油气资源研究和后续油气资源勘探部署工作。为揭示通化盆地下白垩统烃源岩生烃潜力和页岩油气的赋存状态,在盆地内部署通地1井,对岩芯样品进行系统取样,完成了暗色泥岩有机质丰度、类型和成熟度的测试工作。实验结果表明,通化盆地下白垩统亨通山组暗色泥岩有机质丰度较高,有机质类型以Ⅰ-Ⅱ1型为主,局部含有Ⅲ型,镜质组反射率分布范围为0.972%~1.127%,已进入大量生烃的成熟阶段;下桦皮甸子组暗色泥岩有机质丰度较高,有机质类型以Ⅰ型为主,局部含有Ⅱ和Ⅲ型,镜质组反射率在0.986%~1.399%之间,已进入大量生烃的成熟阶段。其地球化学特征和世界上许多页岩油气田的烃源岩有相似之处,综合研究表明通化盆地下白垩统具有较好的常规油气和页岩气生成潜力。     

桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的构造变形特征研究

桐柏杂岩北界剪切带是桐柏—大别造山带发育的一条大型的左行走滑韧性剪切带,发育糜棱岩、超糜棱岩以及强直片麻岩等强变形岩石。通过对剪切带内岩石的矿物共生组合、剪切带的位移量计算、石英的分维数计算、石英颗粒的差异应力以及应变速率的估算等多种方法分析结果显示:桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的位移量为38.3~41.1km;动态重结晶石英颗粒边界统计数据的相关系数R均大于0.96,动态重结晶颗粒边界具有统计意义上的自相似性;分维数为1.207~1.302之间,从剪切带的核部向边部,颗粒粒径和分维值的变化是逐渐变大的。石英的分维值反映出石英的动态重结晶与剪切带密切相关,变质变形由剪切带核部向边部逐渐减弱。桐柏杂岩北界剪切带的差异应力值为23.583~46.983 MPa之间,应变速率为1.70×10~(-11)~9.74×10~(-11)s~(-1)。通过对比剪切带内动态重结晶石英颗粒的粒径、差异应力和应变速率可以发现,差异应力与应变速率表现出一定的正相关性,都随着从剪切带的核部到边部慢慢变小;而石英的粒径则与差异应力和应变速率表现出负相关性,从剪切带核部到边部,随着石英粒径的变大,差异应力和应变速率变小。差异应力越大,导致石英颗粒的受力强度越大,变形越强,表现出来的就是应变速率越强。从显微构造变形角度来研究认识该剪切带,对揭示桐柏—大别造山带的构造演化以及构造模型的建立有着重要的构造意义。     

Spatial and temporal evolution of community resilience to natural hazards in the coastal areas of China

With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.     

A geo-ontology-based approach to decision-making in emergency management of meteorological disasters

Ontology as a kind of method for knowledge representation is able to provide semantic integration for decision support in emergency management activities of meteorological disasters. We examine a meteorological disaster system as composed of four components: disastrous meteorological events, hazard-inducing environments, hazard-bearing bodies, and emergency management. The geospatial characteristics of these components can be represented with geographical ontology (geo-ontology). In this paper, we propose an ontology representation of domain knowledge of a meteorological disaster system descending from an adapted geospatial foundation ontology, designed to formally conceptualize the domain terms and establish relationships between those concepts. The class hierarchy and relationships of the proposed ontology are implemented finally at top level, domain level/task level, and application level. The potential application of the ontology is illustrated with a case study of prediction of secondary disasters and evacuation decision of a typhoon event. The multi-level ontology model can provide semantic support for before-, during-, after-event emergency management activities such as risk assessment, resource preparedness, and emergency response where the formed concepts and their relationships can be incorporated into reasoning sentences of these decision processes. Furthermore, the ontology model is realized with a universally used intermediate language OWL, which enables it to be used in popular environments. This work will underlie the semantic integration among human beings, between heterogeneous systems and between human beings and systems, enable spatial semantic reasoning, and will be useful in guiding advanced decision support in emergency management of meteorological disasters.     

1980-2010年石羊河流域生态服务类型变化与分析

根据石羊河流域1980年、1990年和2010年三期遥感影像数据,基于GIS技术方法,分析了石羊河流域各县市的土地利用方式变化情况。评估了流域主要生态系统生态服务价值量,分析了30 a来流域生态系统服务价值在时间和空间上的变化。结果表明：过去30 a来,石羊河流域的土地利用变化主要以耕地、草地、未利用土地的变化为主。石羊河流域生态系统服务的总价值呈减少趋势,生态服务价值在空间分布上表现为下游呈增加趋势、中上游表现为减少趋势。流域下游生态服务价值增加的主要原因是流域生态保护与恢复措施取得了显著成效。     

西藏安多早侏罗世火山岩岩石成因及对班公湖-怒江特提斯洋俯冲消减的制约

拉萨地块广泛分布着中生代的岩浆活动,研究它们对于认识特提斯洋的演化过程有着重要的启示。本文报道安多地区新识别出的早侏罗世岛弧型火山岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄、锆石原位Hf同位素、全岩主微量元素分析和Sr-Nd同位素结果。英安岩206Pb/238U年龄为180.7±4.7Ma(MSWD=0.22,n=10),指示其形成时代为早侏罗世。这些火山岩的SiO_2含量为62.50%~76.15%,MgO含量为0.33%~3.05%,Fe_2O_3T含量为2.35%~6.69%;所有样品都显示轻稀土元素相对富集,具有铕的弱负异常,具有富集大离子亲石元素、亏损高场强元素的地球化学特征;同时这些火山岩锆石原位εHf(t)值均为正值(+15.1~+17.1);全岩Sr-Nd同位素εNd(t)值也均为正值(+7.1~+13.2),指示这些火山岩很可能是特提斯洋俯冲消减过程中新生下地壳部分熔融的产物。结合区域地质资料,认为安多火山岩不可能是龙木错-双湖古特提斯洋或雅鲁藏布江新特提斯洋俯冲消减的产物,而是班公湖-怒江特提斯洋俯冲消减的产物,区域上很可能与改则北、日土地区的侏罗纪侵入岩一起构成了班公湖-怒江特提斯洋北侧的岩浆弧带。由此本文认为安多早侏罗世岛弧型火山岩是班公湖-怒江特提斯洋北向俯冲消减的产物,从而为班公湖-怒江特提斯洋的俯冲消减过程提供了直接的火山岩证据。     

Recent Process in Near-Space Gravity Wave Analysis Based on Satellite Measurements

This article focused on the research progress in the gravity wave analysis based on satellite measurements including MODIS, AIRS, AMSU, MLS, DNB, COSMIC,HIRDLS and SOFIE. Besides, a few ground-based observation results and numerical models were briefly introduced and some cases of joint applications of satellite observations with ground-based observations and numerical models in the gravity waves were listed. In general, the satellite remote sensing data play an important role in the study of the characteristics in near-space environment, which can be applied to analyze the scales of gravity waves induced by different sources, correlations between the instabilities and waves as well as their patterns, the impacts in the climate process, wave-wave interactions and wave-flow interactions with other data.