Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods. Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made. At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels. Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996–2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of threshold-exceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3- and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of high-resolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates.     

Rates of rockwall slope erosion in the upper Bhagirathi catchment,Garhwal Himalaya

Rockwall slope erosion is defined for the upper Bhagirathi catchment using cosmogenic Beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) concentrations in sediment from medial moraines on Gangotri glacier. Beryllium-10 concentrations range from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.7 ± 0.3 × 10⁴ at/g SiO₂, yielding rockwall slope erosion rates from 2.4 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 1.9 mm/a. Slope erosion rates are likely to have varied over space and time and responded to shifts in climate, geomorphic and/or tectonic regime throughout the late Quaternary. Geomorphic and sedimentological analyses confirm that the moraines are predominately composed of rockfall and avalanche debris mobilized from steep relief rockwall slopes via periglacial weathering processes. The glacial rockwall slope erosion affects sediment flux and storage of snow and ice at the catchment head on diurnal to millennial timescales, and more broadly influences catchment configuration and relief, glacier dynamics and microclimates. The slope erosion rates exceed the averaged catchment-wide and exhumation rates of Bhagirathi and the Garhwal region on geomorphic timescales (10³−10⁵ years), supporting the view that erosion at the headwaters can outpace the wider catchment. The ¹⁰Be concentrations of medial moraine sediment for the upper Bhagirathi catchment and the catchments of Chhota Shigri in Lahul, northern India and Baltoro glacier in Central Karakoram, Pakistan show a tentative relationship between ¹⁰Be concentration and precipitation. As such there is more rapid glacial rockwall slope erosion in the monsoon-influenced Lesser and Greater Himalaya compared to the semi-arid interior of the orogen. Rockwall slope erosion in the three study areas, and more broadly across the northwest Himalaya is likely governed by individual catchment dynamics that vary across space and time. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetic properties as indicators of pedogenic and pyrogenic processes at the Upper Paleolithic site of Kostenki 14

In geoarchaeological studies, there is an issue with distinguishing between natural and anthropogenic signals in pedological paleoarchives. With the pedostratigraphy of the Upper Paleolithic site of Kostenki 14, this issue is reflected by problems with the determination of features of pedogenic and pyrogenic processes. This issue was addressed by means of a thorough analysis of the magnetic properties of paleosols accompanied by micromorphological observations. Most of the humic samples were shown to be a result of pedogenesis, but two samples (a Paleolithic hearth sample and a sample from paleosol IIc) had features of intensely burnt material. The difference in the typical intensity of large-scale (natural or human-induced) and local-scale anthropogenic fire allowed for suggesting that the magnetic properties of the burnt sample were the result of an anthropogenically controlled fire event, that is, a hearth. This study shows that the magnetic properties of paleosols can be used to differentiate anthropogenic activity, in particular—burning, from pedogenic processes. This indicator is especially helpful in finding disturbed combustion features when the hearth structure is lost. This methodology used to demonstrate the local human-induced pyrogenic effect at the Upper Paleolithic site can contribute to the discussion of the niche construction effect of human activities in the Pleistocene.     

Wetland Loss Patterns and Inundation-Productivity Relationships Prognosticate Widespread Salt Marsh Loss for Southern New England

Tidal salt marsh is a key defense against, yet is especially vulnerable to, the effects of accelerated sea level rise. To determine whether salt marshes in southern New England will be stable given increasing inundation over the coming decades, we examined current loss patterns, inundation-productivity feedbacks, and sustaining processes. A multi-decadal analysis of salt marsh aerial extent using historic imagery and maps revealed that salt marsh vegetation loss is both widespread and accelerating, with vegetation loss rates over the past four decades summing to 17.3 %. Landward retreat of the marsh edge, widening and headward expansion of tidal channel networks, loss of marsh islands, and the development and enlargement of interior depressions found on the marsh platform contributed to vegetation loss. Inundation due to sea level rise is strongly suggested as a primary driver: vegetation loss rates were significantly negatively correlated with marsh elevation (r ²?=?0.96; p?=?0.0038), with marshes situated below mean high water (MHW) experiencing greater declines than marshes sitting well above MHW. Growth experiments with Spartina alterniflora, the Atlantic salt marsh ecosystem dominant, across a range of elevations and inundation regimes further established that greater inundation decreases belowground biomass production of S. alterniflora and, thus, negatively impacts organic matter accumulation. These results suggest that southern New England salt marshes are already experiencing deterioration and fragmentation in response to sea level rise and may not be stable as tidal flooding increases in the future.     

Downstream effects of stream flow diversion on channel characteristics and riparian vegetation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains,USA

Flow diversions are widespread and numerous throughout the semi‐arid mountains of the western United States. Diversions vary greatly in their structure and ability to divert water, but can alter the magnitude and duration of base and peak flows, depending upon their size and management. Channel geometry and riparian plant communities have adapted to unique hydrologic and geomorphic conditions existing in the areas subject to fluvial processes. We use geomorphic and vegetation data from low‐gradient (≤3%) streams in the Rocky Mountains of north‐central Colorado to assess potential effects of diversion. Data were collected at 37 reaches, including 16 paired upstream and downstream reaches and five unpaired reaches. Channel geometry data were derived from surveys of bankfull channel dimensions and substrate. Vegetation was sampled using a line‐point intercept method along transects oriented perpendicular to the channel, with a total of 100 sampling points per reach. Elevation above and distance from the channel were measured at each vegetation sampling point to analyze differences in lateral and vertical zonation of plant communities between upstream and downstream reaches. Geomorphic data were analyzed using mixed effects models. Bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area decreased downstream from diversions. Vegetation data were analyzed using biological diversity metrics, richness, evenness and diversity, as well as multivariate community analysis. Evenness increased downstream from diversions, through reduced frequency of wetland indicator species and increased frequency of upland indicator species. Probability of occurrence for upland species downstream of a diversion increases at a greater rate beginning around 0·5 m above active channel. The results suggest that channel morphology and riparian plant communities along low‐gradient reaches in montane environments in the Colorado Rocky Mountains are impacted by diversion‐induced flow alteration, with the net effect of simplifying and narrowing the channel and homogenizing and terrestrializing riparian plant communities. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles on the decadal scale suspended sediment behavior of a coastal dry‐summer subtropical catchment

Rivers display temporal dependence in suspended sediment–water discharge relationships. Although most work has focused on multi‐decadal trends, river sediment behavior often displays sub‐decadal scale fluctuations that have received little attention. The objectives of this study were to identify inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in the suspended sediment–discharge relationship of a dry‐summer subtropical river, infer the mechanisms behind these fluctuations, and examine the role of El Niño Southern Oscillation climate cycles. The Salinas River (California) is a moderate sized (11 000 km²), coastal dry‐summer subtropical catchment with a mean discharge (Q_mean) of 11.6 m³ s^?1. This watershed is located at the northern most extent of the Pacific coastal North America region that experiences increased storm frequency during El Niño years. Event to inter‐annual scale suspended sediment behavior in this system was known to be influenced by antecedent hydrologic conditions, whereby previous hydrologic activity regulates the suspended sediment concentration–water discharge relationship. Fine and sand suspended sediment in the lower Salinas River exhibited persistent, decadal scale periods of positive and negative discharge corrected concentrations. The decadal scale variability in suspended sediment behavior was influenced by inter‐annual to decadal scale fluctuations in hydrologic characteristics, including: elapsed time since small (~0.1 × Q_mean), and moderate (~10 × Q_mean) threshold discharge values, the number of preceding days that low/no flow occurred, and annual water yield. El Niño climatic activity was found to have little effect on decadal‐scale fluctuations in the fine suspended sediment–discharge relationship due to low or no effect on the frequency of moderate to low discharge magnitudes, annual precipitation, and water yield. However, sand concentrations generally increased in El Niño years due to the increased frequency of moderate to high magnitude discharge events, which generally increase sand supply. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Selenium and mercury concentrations in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from central California: Health implications in an urbanized estuary

We measured total selenium and total mercury concentrations ([TSe] and [THg]) in hair (n = 138) and blood (n = 73) of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from California to assess variation by geography and sex, and inferred feeding relationships based on carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur stable isotopes. Harbor seals from Hg-contaminated sites had significantly greater [THg], and lesser [TSe] and TSe:THg molar ratios than seals from a relatively uncontaminated site. Males had significantly greater [THg] than females at all locations. Sulfur stable isotope values explained approximately 25% of the variability in [THg], indicating increased Hg exposure for seals with a greater use of estuarine prey species. Decreased [TSe] in harbor seals from Hg-contaminated regions may indicate a relative Se deficiency to mitigate the toxic effects of Hg. Further investigation into the Se status and the potential negative impact of Hg on harbor seals from Hg-contaminated sites is warranted.     

Comparing flow regime,channel hydraulics,and biological communities to infer flow–ecology relationships in the Mara River of Kenya and Tanzania

Abstract

Equatorial rivers of East Africa exhibit unusually complex seasonal and inter-annual flow regimes, and aquatic and adjacent terrestrial organisms have adapted to cope with this flow variability. This study examined the annual flow regime over the past 40 years for three gauging stations on the Mara River in Kenya and Tanzania, which is of international importance because it is the only perennial river traversing the Mara-Serengeti ecoregion. Select environmental flow components were quantified and converted to ecologically relevant hydraulic variables. Vegetation, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected and identified at target study sites during low and high flows. The results were compared with available knowledge of the life histories and flow sensitivities of the riverine communities to infer flow–ecology relationships. Management implications are discussed, including the need to preserve a dynamic environmental flow regime to protect ecosystems in the region. The results for the Mara may serve as a useful model for river basins of the wider equatorial East Africa region.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. Acreman     

Effects of watershed land use on sources and nutritional value of particulate organic matter in temperate headwater streams

Suspended particulate organic matter (POM) in headwater streams is an important source of food and energy to stream food webs. In order to determine the effects of watershed land use on the sources and characteristics of POM, we compared the lipid composition of POM (fatty acid, aliphatic alcohol and sterol) from streams influenced by different types of watershed land use. Eight first-order streams discharging to the York River Estuary (Virginia, USA) were sampled during baseflow conditions bi-monthly from February to November 2009, including streams draining forest-dominated, pasture-dominated, cropland-dominated, and urban land-dominated watersheds. Allochthonous vs. autochthonous lipids showed that POM in most of these streams was dominated by allochthonous sources (59.5 ± 14.2 vs. 39.6 ± 14.5 % for aliphatic alcohols and 52.9 ± 11.5 vs. 34.1 ± 10.3 % for sterols). The relative abundance of allochthonous vs. autochthonous lipid inputs to POM varied as a function of land use type. POM in streams draining forest-dominated watersheds contained a higher proportion of allochthonous lipids and a lower proportion of autochthonous lipids than the streams influenced by human land use. The contribution of bacterial fatty acids differed significantly among sampling times (P = 0.003), but not among land use types (P = 0.547). Stepwise linear regression model selected nitrate and temperature as the best predictors of variation in bacterial inputs to POM. Proxies used to assess the nutritional value of POM potentially available to stream consumers included C:N ratios, and the concentrations of total long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, eicosapentaenoic acid, arachidonic acid, and cholesterol. None of these nutritional proxies differed among sampling months (P ≥ 0.171), but the proxies showed that the nutritional value of POM in forest streams was lower than in urban streams. Collectively, these findings suggest that human land use in upstream watersheds alters the source composition and nutritional value of stream POM, which not only impacts food quality for stream biota, but also potentially changes the characteristics of OM reaching downstream ecosystems.     

A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

We present an overview of the data and models collected for the Whole Heliosphere Interval, an international campaign to study the three-dimensional solar?Cheliospheric?Cplanetary connected system near solar minimum. The data and models correspond to solar Carrington Rotation 2068 (20 March??C?16 April 2008) extending from below the solar photosphere, through interplanetary space, and down to Earth??s mesosphere. Nearly 200 people participated in aspects of WHI studies, analyzing and interpreting data from nearly 100 instruments and models in order to elucidate the physics of fundamental heliophysical processes. The solar and inner heliospheric data showed structure consistent with the declining phase of the solar cycle. A closely spaced cluster of low-latitude active regions was responsible for an increased level of magnetic activity, while a highly warped current sheet dominated heliospheric structure. The geospace data revealed an unusually high level of activity, driven primarily by the periodic impingement of high-speed streams. The WHI studies traced the solar activity and structure into the heliosphere and geospace, and provided new insight into the nature of the interconnected heliophysical system near solar minimum.