The need for judgement in geotechnical reliability studies

ABSTRACT

A core principle of geotechnical engineering practice is the need to exercise judgement in evaluating soil and site conditions and in performing analyses. The requirement for considering judgement applies equally to performing deterministic or probabilistic analyses. In addition, for probabilistic analyses, choices must be made among the possible methods of analysis and the method of characterising variables. Consequently, geotechnical reliability studies inevitably involve significant uncertainties, and judgement is needed to perform reliability analyses and to evaluate the results. Two case histories, briefly described here, show that judgement and experience are essential prerequisites for meaningful assessment of geotechnical reliability.     

Accurate GPS measurement of the location and orientation of a floating platform

Abstract

This article describes the design and initial tests of the GPS portion of a system for making seafloor geodesy measurements. In the planned system, GPS antennas on a floating platform will be used to measure the location of an acoustic transducer, attached below the platform, which interrogates an array of transponders on the seafloor. Since the GPS antennas are necessarily some distance above the transducer, a short‐baseline GPS interferometer consisting of three antennas is used to measure the platform's orientation.

A preliminary test of several crucial elements of the system was performed at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) in December 1989. The test involved a fixed antenna on the pier and a second antenna floating on a buoy about 80 m away. GPS measurements of the vertical component of this baseline, analyzed independently by two groups using different software, agree with each other and with an independent measurement within a centimeter.

The first test of an integrated GPS/acoustic system took place in the Santa Cruz Basin off the coast of southern California in May 1990. In this test a much larger buoy, designed and built at SIO, was equipped with three GPS antennas and an acoustic transducer that interrogated a transponder on the ocean floor. Preliminary analysis indicates that the horizontal position of the transponder can be determined with a precision of about a centimeter. Further analysis will be required to investigate the magnitude of systematic errors.     

Land‐use impacts and water quality targets in the intensive dairying catchment of the Toenepi Stream,New Zealand

Water quality monitoring in Toenepi Stream, New Zealand, started in 1995 in a study of dairy farming influences on lowland stream quality and has continued since then with brief interruptions. Surveys have provided information about changes in farm and soil management practices as they relate to environmental sustainability. Although average water quality in Toenepi Stream has changed little during 1995–2004, there have been some notable improvements. Water clarity measured by black disc has improved from 0.6m to 1.5m, and median ammonia‐N and nitrate‐N concentrations have declined by 70% and 57%, respectively. The frequency and magnitude of extreme concentrations have declined—most notably for nitrogen (N) forms, which also had decreased mean values. Specific yields for suspended solids (SS) and phosphorus (P) forms in 2002–04 were 47–67% of 1995–97 values, mainly because of lower water yields. Reduced specific yields for N forms in 2002–04 (34–37% of 1995–97 yields) were also attributable to lower mean concentrations in stream water. Faecal bacteria concentrations have not abated and are on average 2–3 times recommended guideline values for contact recreation. Fewer dairy farms and an increased proportion irrigating dairyshed effluent to land, rather than discharging it to the stream via two‐pond systems, were likely causes of improvement in water quality. Water quality targets were developed for Toenepi Stream to achieve contact recreation criteria for the Piako River (downstream) and for intrinsic habitat values for Toenepi Stream. A range of mitigation measures has been formulated to meet these targets, but substantial uptake of sustainable farming practices is needed to improve water quality in Toenepi Stream.     

Comparison of surface and borehole locations of induced seismicity

Monitoring of induced microseismic events has become an important tool in hydraulic fracture diagnostics and understanding fractured reservoirs in general. We compare microseismic event and their uncertainties using data sets obtained with surface and downhole arrays of receivers. We first model the uncertainties to understand the effect of different acquisition geometries on location accuracy. For a vertical array of receivers in a single monitoring borehole, we find that the largest part of the final location uncertainty is related to estimation of the backazimuth. This is followed by uncertainty in the vertical position and radial distance from the receivers. For surface monitoring, the largest uncertainty lies in the vertical position due to the use of only a single phase (usually P‐wave) in the estimation of the event location. In surface monitoring results, lateral positions are estimated robustly and are not sensitive to the velocity model. In this case study, we compare event location solutions from two catalogues of microseismic events; one from a downhole array and the second from a surface array of 1C geophone. Our results show that origin time can be reliably used to find matching events between the downhole and surface catalogues. The locations of the corresponding events display a systematic shift consistent with a poorly calibrated velocity model for downhole dataset. For this case study, locations derived from surface monitoring have less scatter in both vertical and horizontal directions.     

Aridity changes in the Temperate-Mediterranean transition of the Andes since ad 1346 reconstructed from tree-rings

The Andes Cordillera acts as regional ??Water Towers?? for several countries and encompasses a wide range of ecosystems and climates. Several hydroclimatic changes have been described for portions of the Andes during recent years, including glacier retreat, negative precipitation trends, an elevation rise in the 0° isotherm, and changes in regional streamflow regimes. The Temperate-Mediterranean transition (TMT) zone of the Andes (35.5°?C39.5°S) is particularly at risk to climate change because it is a biodiversity hotspot with heavy human population pressure on water resources. In this paper we utilize a new tree-ring network of Austrocedrus chilensis to reconstruct past variations in regional moisture in the TMT of the Andes by means of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The reconstruction covers the past 657?years and captures interannual to decadal scales of variability in late spring?Cearly summer PDSI. These changes are related to the north?Csouth oscillations in moisture conditions between the Mediterranean and Temperate climates of the Andes as a consequence of the latitudinal position of the storm tracks forced by large-scale circulation modes. Kernel estimation of occurrence rates reveals an unprecedented increment of severe and extreme drought events during the last century in the context of the previous six centuries. Moisture conditions in our study region are linked to tropical and high-latitude ocean-atmospheric forcing, with PDSI positively related to Ni?o-3.4 SST during spring and strongly negatively correlated with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during summer. Geopotential anomaly maps at 500-hPa show that extreme dry years are tightly associated with negative height anomalies in the Ross?CAmundsen Seas, in concordance with the strong negative relationship between PDSI and AAO. The twentieth century increase in extreme drought events in the TMT may not be related to ENSO but to the positive AAO trend during late-spring and summer resulting from a gradual poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. This first PDSI reconstruction for South America demonstrates the highly significant hindcast skill of A. chilensis as an aridity proxy.     

The long term operation of a biologically based treatment system that removes As, S and Zn from industrial (smelter operation) landfill seepage

Passive treatment systems have a long history in the remediation of mining impacted water. The functioning of these systems is poorly understood, in particular the microbial processes that underpin metal removal. A biologically based engineered wetland treatment system that has operated in Trail, B.C. to treat seepage from a historic Pb and Zn smelter landfill, was investigated. The system has functioned for more than a decade, an unusually long life span for a passive bioreactor design. The study focuses on the 5a of operation from 2003 until 2007. Arsenic is a major contaminant in the ore that is processed in Trail, which has caused high As concentrations in the seepage. In addition to As, Zn and Cd removal were investigated. During the 5-a period, the system sequestered 2990 kg of As, 7700 kg of Zn and 85 kg of Cd. Nearly 90% of these elements were removed in two biochemical reactors (BCRs) that comprise the first two components of the six cell system, with the remainder removed in plant-based polishing cells. Average input concentrations over the 5-a period were 2.3 and 4.1 mM for As and Zn, respectively and 0.45 μM for Cd. Final output concentrations were reduced to 0.01 mM for As, 0.05 mM for Zn and 0.18 μM for Cd. Sulfur removal averaged 34% of input concentration. Analysis of mineral formation in the system using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy indicated kottigite (Zn₃(AsO₄)₂⋅8H₂O) and sphalerite (ZnS) as the major mineral phases controlling As and Zn sequestration; Cd appears to be immobilized as CdS. Evidence for orpiment was obtained from X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XANES) studies, and arsenopyrite was not detected. Although microbial activity dominates the removal of Zn, As and Cd from the soluble phase, abiotic removal mechanisms contribute including sorption of As and Zn to biosolids and filtration of metal precipitates by the solid matrix. The removal of toxic elements over the period appeared to be relatively consistent. Seasonal fluctuations, a large spike in input element concentrations over a 2-month period, and removal of the two biochemical reactors during a period of reconstruction appeared to have relatively little impact on the system as a whole.     

Triaxial shear testing of polished slickensided surfaces

A series of consolidated-drained triaxial tests were performed on precut and polished clay specimens to measure their drained residual strength. Two soils were tested during this research program: Rancho Solano Clay and San Francisco Bay Mud. Specimens were tested using a specially modified triaxial compression device which was developed to minimize the effects of end-platen restraint on the measured strengths. Special attention was paid to the influence of changing specimen area and membrane effects during the test. Triaxial test results were compared with baseline measurements of drained residual shear strength that were made for each of the clay soils using Bromhead ring shear tests and polished-specimen direct shear tests. Residual strength values measured in the triaxial device were higher than the drained residual strengths measured in the Bromhead ring shear apparatus and the direct shear device, indicating that this test approach is more challenging than the use of direct shear tests conducted on polished slickensided surfaces. Comparison of single stage and multistage triaxial test data indicates that multistage triaxial testing may work well for specimens that fail along a well-defined plane, provided that careful attention is given to the effects of end platen restraint, membrane restraint, and changes in specimen area during shear.     

Microbial mats implicated in the generation of intrastratal shrinkage (‘synaeresis’) cracks

Intrastratal shrinkage (often termed ‘synaeresis’) cracks are commonly employed as diagnostic environmental indicators for ancient salinity‐stressed, transitional fluvial‐marine or marginal‐marine depositional environments. Despite their abundance and use in facies interpretations, the mechanism of synaeresis crack formation remains controversial, and widely accepted explanations for their formation have hitherto been lacking. Sedimentological, ichnological, petrographic and geochemical study of shallow marine mudstone beds from the Ordovician Beach Formation of Bell Island, Newfoundland, has revealed that crack development (cf. synaeresis cracks) on the upper surface of mudstone beds is correlated with specific organic, geochemical and sedimentological parameters. Contorted, sinuous, sand‐filled cracks are common at contacts between unbioturbated mudstone and overlying sandstone beds. Cracks are absent in highly bioturbated mudstone, and are considered to pre‐date firmground assemblages of trace fossils that include Planolites and Trichophycus. The tops of cracked mudstone beds contain up to 2·1 wt% total organic carbon, relative to underlying mudstone beds that contain around 0·5 wt% total organic carbon. High‐resolution carbon isotope analyses reveal low δ¹³C_org values (?27·6‰) on bed tops compared with sandy intervals lacking cracks (?24·4 to ?24·9‰). Cracked mudstone facies show evidence for microbial matgrounds, including microbially induced sedimentary structures on bedding planes and carbonaceous laminae and tubular carbonaceous microfossils in thin section. Non‐cracked mudstone lacks evidence for development of microbial mats. Microbial mat development is proposed as an important prerequisite for intrastratal shrinkage crack formation. Both microbial mats and intrastratal shrinkage cracks have broad palaeoenvironmental distributions in the Precambrian and early Phanerozoic. In later Phanerozoic strata, matgrounds are restricted to depositional environments that are inhospitable to burrowing and surface‐grazing macrofauna. Unless evidence of synaeresis (i.e. contraction of clay mineral lattices in response to salinity change) can be independently demonstrated, the general term ‘intrastratal shrinkage crack’ is proposed to describe sinuous and tapering cracks in mudstone beds.