Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS

This study introduces the operational data assimilation (DA) system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) to the numerical weather prediction community. Its development history and performance are addressed with experimental illustrations and the authors’ previously published studies. Milestones in skill improvements include the initial operational implementation of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar), the ingestion of additional satellite observations, and changing the DA scheme to a hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational DA using forecasts from an ensemble based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). In the hybrid system, determining the relative contribution of the ensemble-based covariance to the resultant analysis is crucial, particularly for moisture variables including a variety of horizontal scale spectra. Modifications to the humidity control variable, partial rather than full recentering of the ensemble for humidity further improves moisture analysis, and the inclusion of more radiance observations with higher-level peaking channels have significant impacts on stratosphere temperature and wind performance. Recent update of the operational hybrid DA system relative to the previous 3DVar system is described for detailed improvements with interpretation.     

Wave Climatology in Coastal Maine for Aquaculture and Other Applications

Wind waves represent a significant hydrodynamic factor affecting many oceanographic studies such as sediment transport, design of structures, etc. In coastal Maine, wave information is needed, among other applications, for aquaculture-related activities. As few data sources exist, a question that confronts scientists pertains to the magnitudes of typical and extreme wave conditions at various times. To address this, numerical modeling was performed for a period of six and a half years (7/99–12/05) on a continuous basis by coupling National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outer ocean predictions to two coastal, high-resolution, regional domain grids encompassing the Penobscot Bay and Machias Bay regions where aquaculture activity is prevalent and expanding. As the modeling involves uncertainties because of bathymetric and wind field representations, their effect on the results was explored. It was found that although the uncertainties could create inaccuracies in real-time forecasts, their effect on the development of climatogies was minimal. Average modeled significant wave heights are found to vary between 0.6 and 1.5 m in the sub-domains. The maximum conditions are of the order of 6.5 m in the outer parts of the sub-domains and occurred in September and December. Estimated wave-induced bottom velocities were found in many areas to be in excess of the published estimates of resuspension thresholds for net-pen wastes. Estimates of “extreme” wave conditions, corresponding to a recurrence interval of 30 years (representing the nominal design life of the cage), were found to vary between 2 and 7 m in the modeled areas. Detailed contour maps have been developed for site-specific characterization of the wave climate.     

Characterization of synthetic nanocrystalline mackinawite: crystal structure, particle size, and specific surface area

Iron sulfide was synthesized by reacting aqueous solutions of sodium sulfide and ferrous chloride for 3 days. By X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD), the resultant phase was determined to be primarily nanocrystalline mackinawite (space group: P4/ nmm) with unit cell parameters a = b = 3.67 Å and c = 5.20 Å. Iron K-edge XAS analysis also indicated the dominance of mackinawite. Lattice expansion of synthetic mackinawite was observed along the c-axis relative to well-crystalline mackinawite. Compared with relatively short-aged phase, the mackinawite prepared here was composed of larger crystallites with less elongated lattice spacings. The direct observation of lattice fringes by HR-TEM verified the applicability of Bragg diffraction in determining the lattice parameters of nanocrystalline mackinawite from XRPD patterns. Estimated particle size and external specific surface area (SSA_ext) of nanocrystalline mackinawite varied significantly with the methods used. The use of Scherrer equation for measuring crystallite size based on XRPD patterns is limited by uncertainty of the Scherrer constant (K) due to the presence of polydisperse particles. The presence of polycrystalline particles may also lead to inaccurate particle size estimation by Scherrer equation, given that crystallite and particle sizes are not equivalent. The TEM observation yielded the smallest SSA_ext of 103 m²/g. This measurement was not representative of dispersed particles due to particle aggregation from drying during sample preparation. In contrast, EGME method and PCS measurement yielded higher SSA_ext (276-345 m²/g by EGME and 424 ± 130 m²/g by PCS). These were in reasonable agreement with those previously measured by the methods insensitive to particle aggregation.     

Prediction of nonstationary climatic series

Summary Most of the stochastic prediction methods are developed for stationary time series. However, many climatic series show clear evidence of non-stationarity. In such cases, methods based on the stationarity assumptions would be inappropriate. Alternative methods such as those based on stochastic approximation are preferable in these cases because they are based on adaptive learning principles. These methods have not been applied and their suitability not tested with nonstationary climatic time series.In the stochastic approximation method, the deterministic component of a nonstationary time series is estimated by first predicting the two steps ahead value of a time series. The two steps-ahead forecast may involve a term characterizing the trend in the time series. The two steps-ahead predictor is corrected to obtain the one step ahead prediction by using a gain sequence.The dynamic stochastic approximation method is used herein to predict non-stationary climatic time series. Daily minimum temperature series at West Lafayette, Indiana, U.S.A. and seasonal temperature and precipitation series at Evansville, Indiana, U.S.A. are used in the study. For data trends, an improved dynamic stochastic approximation method, called the modified dynamic stochastic approximation method gives more accurate predictions. If the method is used for seasonal data, then it can be used to track the time varying mean value.With 6 Figures     

Trilobite Biostratigraphy of the lower Paleozoic (Cambrian–Ordovician) Joseon Supergroup, Taebaeksan Basin, Korea

In Korea,trilobites are among the most intensively studied fossil groups in the past century and provide invaluable information about lower Paleozoic stratigraphy,paleogeography,and tectonics of the Korean Peninsula. Trilobites occur in the lower Paleozoic Joseon Supergroup of the Taebaeksan Basin which was part of the Sino-Korean Craton in the Paleozoic. The Joseon Supergroup is divided into the Taebaek,Yeongwol,and Mungyeong groups. The Taebaek and Yeongwol groups are richly fossiliferous,while the Mungyeong Group is poorly fossiliferous. Contrasting trilobite faunal contents of the Taebaek and Yeongwol groups resulted in two separate biostratigraphic schemes for the Cambrian–Ordovician of the Taebaeksan Basin. A total of 22 biozones or fossiliferous horizons were recognized in the Taebaek Group; 19 zones were established in the Yeongwol Group; and four biozones were known from the Mungyeong Group. These trilobite biozones of the Taebaeksan Basin indicate the Joseon Supergroup ranges in age from the Cambrian Series 2 to Middle Ordovician and can be correlated well with the formations of North China,South China,and Australia.     

Variations in the abundance of fisheries resources and ecosystem structure in the Japan/East Sea

Evidence supports the hypothesis that two climatic regime shifts in the North Pacific and the Japan/East Sea, have affected the dynamics of the marine ecosystem and fisheries resources from 1960 to 2000. Changes in both mixed layer depth (MLD) and primary production were detected in the Japan/East Sea after 1976. The 1976 regime shift appears to have caused the biomass replacement with changes in catch production of major exploited fisheries resources, including Pacific saury, Pacific sardine and filefish. Both fisheries yield and fish distribution are reflected in these decadal fluctuations. In the 1960s and 1990s, common squid dominated the catches whereas in the 1970s and 1980s, it was replaced by walleye pollock. In the post-1988 regime shift, the distribution of horse mackerel shifted westward and southward and its distributional overlap with common mackerel decreased. The habitat of Pacific sardine also shifted away from mackerel habitats during this period. To evaluate changes in the organization and structure of the ecosystem in the Japan/East Sea, a mass-balanced model, Ecopath, was employed. Based on two mass-balanced models, representing before (1970–75) and after (1978–84) the 1976 regime shift, the weighted mean trophic level of catch increased from 3.09 before to 3.28 after. Total biomass of species groups in the Japan/East Sea ecosystem increased by 15% and total catch production increased by 48% due to the 1976 regime shift. The largest changes occurred at mid-trophic levels, occupied by fishes and cephalopods. The dominant predatory species shifted from cephalopods to walleye pollock due to the 1976 regime shift. It is concluded that the climatic regime shifts caused changes in the structure of the ecosystem and the roles of major species, as well as, large variations in biomass and production of fisheries resources.     

The stratigraphic evolution of the Indus Fan and the history of sedimentation in the Arabian Sea

The Indus Fan records the erosion of the western Himalayas and Karakoram since India began to collide with Asia during the Eocene, 50 Ma. Multi-channel seismic reflection data from the northern Arabian Sea correlated to industrial well Indus Marine A-1 on the Pakistan Shelf show that sedimentation patterns are variable through time, reflecting preferential sedimentation in deep water during periods of lower sea-level (e.g., middle Miocene, Pleistocene), the diversion of sediment toward the east following uplift of the Murray Ridge, and the autocyclic switching of fan lobes. Individual channel-levee systems are estimated to have been constructed over periods of 10⁵–10⁶ yr during the Late Miocene. Sediment velocities derived from sonobuoys and multi-channel stacking velocities allow sections to be time-depth converted and then backstripped to calculate sediment budgets through time. The middle Miocene is the period of most rapid accumulation, probably reflecting surface uplift in the source regions and strengthening of the monsoon at that time. Increasing sedimentation during the Pleistocene, after a late Miocene-Pliocene minimum, is apparently caused by faster erosion during intense glaciation. The sediment-unloaded geometry of the basement under the Pakistan Shelf shows a steep gradient, similar to the continent-ocean transition seen at other rifted volcanic margins, with basement depths on the oceanward side indistinguishable from oceanic crust. Consequently we suggest that the continent-ocean transition is located close to the present shelf break, rather than >350 km to the south, as previously proposed.