The most extensive Holocene advance in the Stauning Alper, East Greenland, occurred in the Little Ice Age

We present glacial geologic and chronologic data concerning the Holocene ice extent in the Stauning Alper of East Greenland. The retreat of ice from the late-glacial position back into the mountains was accomplished by at least 11 000 cal years B.P. The only recorded advance after this time occurred during the past few centuries (the Little Ice Age). Therefore, we postulate that the Little Ice Age event represents the maximum Holocene ice extent in this part of East Greenland.     

Hollow bridge-pier properties for response spectrum analysis

The present paper proposes equivalent stiffness and energy dissipation properties of reinforced concrete hollow bridge piers to be used in the context of response spectrum performance based assessment and design. The work is carried out by performing parametric numerical analysis using a 2D fibre model calibrated against experimental results and by varying the longitudinal steel reinforcement ratio, height over width ratio, normalised axial force, level of confinement and concrete class of a rectangular hollow section reinforced with Tempcore B500C steel. The results of the analysis are given in the form of charts and closed form expressions for the yield curvature and moment, ultimate ductility, post yielding stiffness ratio and energy dissipated of the section, and are translated to the member level through the plastic hinge length approach. Likewise, the parameters of a Takeda model derived from the parametric analysis are given for use in nonlinear time history analysis.     

Models of interacting pairs of thin,quasi-geostrophic vortices: steady-state solutions and nonlinear stability

We study pairwise interactions of elliptical quasi-geostrophic (QG) vortices as the limiting case of vanishingly thin uniform potential vorticity ellipsoids. In this limit, the product of the vertical extent of the ellipsoid and the potential vorticity within it is held fixed to a finite non-zero constant. Such elliptical “lenses” inherit the property that, in isolation, they steadily rotate without changing shape. Here, we use this property to extend both standard moment models and Hamiltonian ellipsoidal models to approximate the dynamical interaction of such elliptical lenses. By neglecting non-elliptical deformations, the simplified models reduce the dynamics to just four degrees of freedom per vortex. For simplicity, we focus on pairwise interactions between identical elliptical vortices initially separated in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The dynamics of the simplified models are compared with the full QG dynamics of the system, and show good agreement as expected for sufficiently distant lenses. The results reveal the existence of families of steadily rotating equilibria in the initial horizontal and vertical separation parameter space. For sufficiently large vertical separations, equilibria with varying shape exist for all horizontal separations. Below a critical vertical separation (stretched by the constant ratio of buoyancy to Coriolis frequencies N / f), comparable to the mean radius of either vortex, a gap opens in horizontal separation where no equilibria are possible. Solutions near the edge of this gap are unstable. In the full QG system, equilibria at the edge of the gap exhibit corners (infinite curvature) along their boundaries. Comparisons of the model results with the full nonlinear QG evolution show that the early stages of the instability are captured by the Hamiltonian elliptical model but not by the moment model that inaccurately estimates shorter-range interactions.     

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

Seismic vulnerability of bridges in transport networks subjected to environmental deterioration

This paper investigates the problem of management, maintenance and planning of interventions in transport networks located in seismic zones, in relation to the actual state of degradation of their most vulnerable elements, as bridges. The study consists in two phases: the first phase is concerned with definition of the seismic vulnerability of a typical bridge in the network, through the construction of fragility curves calculated taking into account the corrosion of the reinforcing steel as the main cause of environmental deterioration. Once the fragility curves of the deteriorated bridges are computed, the second phase consists in the analysis of the vulnerability of the transport network in which the bridges are included taking into account the modification of the traffic flows when bridge infrastructures are damaged. The results of this pilot study can be used as a first step for a proper allocation of economic resources in the planning of seismic retrofit interventions to minimize the overall risk and manage the immediate post-earthquake emergency phase and guide rescuers in reaching the affected and critical areas.     

Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello-Presanella Massif (Italian Alps)

Tree rings from temperature-limited environments are highly sensitive climate proxies, widely used to reconstruct past climate parameters for periods prior to the availability of instrumental data and to analyse the effect of recent global warming on tree growth. An analysis of the climatic signal in five high-elevation tree-ring width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the tops of five different glacial valleys in the Italian Central Alps revealed that they contain a strong summer-temperature signal and that tree-ring growth is especially influenced by June temperatures. However, a moving correlation function analysis revealed a recent loss of the June temperature signal in the tree-ring chronologies. This signal reduction primarily involves the two lowest-altitude chronologies. It is probable that the observed increasing importance of late-summer temperature for tree-ring growth over the past 50 yr is an effect of the lengthening growing season and of the variations in the climate/tree-ring relationship over time. All the chronologies considered, especially those at the highest altitudes, show an increasing negative influence of June precipitation on tree-ring growth. The climatic signal recorded in tree-ring chronologies from the Italian Central Alps varies over time and is also differentially influenced by climatic parameters according to site elevation.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

The impact of dredge-fill on Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: regression and patterns of recovery

Posidonia oceanica meadows can be severely damaged by dredge-fill operations. We report on the construction of gas pipelines that occurred between 1981 and 1993 in SW Sicily, Italy. A large portion of the meadow was mechanically removed, and the excavated trench was filled with a mosaic of substrates, ranging from sand to consolidated rock debris. Meadow loss and recovery were quantified over 7 years after the end of operations. We recorded an overall loss of 81.20 ha of meadow. Substrate strongly affected recovery as the percent cover by P. oceanica consistently increased on calcareous rubble, reaching values of 44.37 ± 3.05% in shallow sites after 7 years, whereas no significant increase occurred on other substrates. As in the Mediterranean Sea exploitation of coastal areas continues to grow with consequent impacts on P. oceanica meadows, this case study illustrates how artificial rubble-like materials could be employed to support the restoration of damaged meadows.