Risk analysis of possible impacts of climate change on South Australian wheat production

This study presents a model-based risk assessment of wheat production under projected climate change by 2080 in eight locations of South Australia. The vulnerability of wheat production under future climate change was quantitatively evaluated via a risk analysis in which the identification of critical yield thresholds applies. Research results show that risk (conditional probability of not exceeding the critical yield thresholds) increased more or less across all locations under the most likely climate change. Wheat production in drier areas such as Minnipa, Orroroo and Wanbi will not be economically viable under the most likely climate change. Intensive studies on adaptation are now required.     

A Customization of the Arc Marine Data Model to Support Whale Tracking via Satellite Telemetry

The Arc Marine data model is a generalized template to guide the implementation of geographic information systems (GIS) projects in the marine environment. It developed out of a collaborative process involving research and industry shareholders in coastal and marine research. This template models and attempts to standardize common ocean and coastal data types to facilitate data sharing and analytical tool development. In this study, Arc Marine is extended from its core model to fit the research goals of the whale satellite-telemetry-tagging program of the Oregon State University Marine Mammal Institute (MMI). The study sought the best customization of the generic Arc Marine data model to enhance the key advantages of satellite telemetry for mapping the distribution and movement of endangered marine mammal species. It was found that three new groups of object classes were needed (Animal, Telemetry, and Operations). Further customization involved the development of a comprehensive framework for animal tracking with Argos satellite telemetry data. A new multidimensional data cube model was also devised, showing how this extension of Arc Marine serves as an appropriate target schema for the application of on-line analytical processing (OLAP) tools and spatial data mining of satellite telemetry tracking datasets.     

Probabilistic seismic source inversion from regional landslide evidence

Landslides - In regions of infrequent but potentially damaging seismicity, modern earthquake inventories may be insufficient to provide inputs to seismic hazard analyses (i.e., fault locations and...     

Express delivery of fossil meteorites from the inner asteroid belt to Sweden

Our understanding of planet formation depends in fundamental ways on what we learn by analyzing the composition, mineralogy, and petrology of meteorites. Yet, it is difficult to deduce the compositional and thermal gradients that existed in the solar nebula from the meteoritic record because, in most cases, we do not know where meteorites with different chemical and isotopic signatures originated. Here we developed a model that tracks the orbits of meteoroid-sized objects as they evolve from the ν₆ secular resonance to Earth-crossing orbits. We apply this model to determining the number of meteorites accreted on the Earth immediately after a collisional disruption of a D∼200-km-diameter inner-main-belt asteroid in the Flora family region. We show that this event could produce fossil chondrite meteorites found in an ≈470 Myr old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, the L-chondrite meteorites with shock ages ≈470 Myr falling on the Earth today, as well as asteroid-sized fragments in the Flora family. To explain the measured short cosmic-ray exposure ages of fossil meteorites our model requires that the meteoroid-sized fragments were launched at speeds >500 m s⁻¹ and/or the collisional lifetimes of these objects were much shorter immediately after the breakup event than they are today.     

Channel response to a dam-removal sediment pulse captured at high-temporal resolution using routine gage data

In this study, we captured how a river channel responds to a sediment pulse originating from a dam removal using multiple lines of evidence derived from streamflow gages along the Patapsco River, Maryland, USA. Gages captured characteristics of the sediment pulse, including travel times of its leading edge (~7.8 km yr⁻¹) and peak (~2.6 km yr⁻¹) and suggest both translation and increasing dispersion. The pulse also changed local hydraulics and energy conditions, increasing flow velocities and Froude number, due to bed fining, homogenization and/or slope adjustment. Immediately downstream of the dam, recovery to pre-pulse conditions occurred within the year, but farther downstream recovery was slower, with the tail of the sediment pulse working through the lower river by the end of the study 7 years later. The patterns and timing of channel change associated with the sediment pulse were not driven by large flow or suspended sediment-transporting events, with change mostly occurring during lower flows. This suggests pulse mobility was controlled by process-factors largely independent of high flow. In contrast, persistent changes occurred to out-of-channel flooding dynamics. Stage associated with flooding increased during the arrival of the sediment pulse, 1 to 2 years after dam removal, suggesting persistent sediment deposition at the channel margins and nearby floodplain. This resulted in National Weather Service-indicated flood stages being attained by 3–43% smaller discharges compared to earlier in the study period. This study captured a two-signal response from the sediment pulse: (1) short- to medium-term (weeks to months) translation and dispersion within the channel, resulting in aggradation and recovery of bed elevations and changing local hydraulics; and (2) dispersion and persistent longer-term (years) effects of sediment deposition on overbank surfaces. This study further demonstrated the utility of US Geological Survey gage data to quantify geomorphic change, increase temporal resolution, and provide insights into trajectories of change over varying spatial and temporal scales.     

The effects of in-cloud mass production on atmospheric light scatter

Direct physical measurements of particle mass and number concentration indicate an increase in overall aerosol mass resulting from cloud processing, most likely through aqueous-phase chemistry (e.g., SO₂ oxidation). Measurements conducted in the Pennines of Northern England reveal an average increase of 14 to 20% in dry aerosol mass (0.003<particle diameter<0.9 μm) after aerosol passage through an orographic cloud. The rate of in-cloud mass production is most sensitive to changes in upwind particle size distributions, SO₂ concentration, and cloud water acidity. Newly-formed mass appears in size range between 200 and 600 nm and enhances the bimodality of the particle number distribution after cloud processing. Furthermore, the cloud-produced mass is estimated to increase total light scattering, b_sp, by 18 to 24%. The scattering efficiency of the dry, cloud-generated aerosol is 5.0±0.3 m² g⁻¹ and increases to 7.4±0.7 m² g⁻¹ when adjusted to 90% relative humidity by incorporating particle hygroscopicity data.     

Predicting gravel bed river response to environmental change: the strengths and limitations of a regime‐based approach

Rivers respond to environmental changes such as climate shifts, land use changes and the construction of hydro‐power dams in a variety of ways. Often there are multiple potential responses to any given change. Traditionally, potential stream channel response has been assessed using simple, qualitative frameworks based largely on professional judgement and field experience, or using some form of regime theory. Regime theory represents an attempt to use a physically based approach to predict the configuration of stable channels that can transport the imposed sediment supply with the available discharge. We review the development of regime theory, and then present a specific regime model that we have created as a stand‐alone computer program, called the UBC Regime Model (UBCRM). UBCRM differs from other regime models in that it constrains its predictions using a bank stability criterion, as well as a pattern stability criterion; it predicts both the stable channel cross‐sectional dimensions as well as the number of anabranches that the stream must have in order to establish a stable channel pattern. UBCRM also differs from other models in that it can be used in a stochastic modelling mode that translates uncertainty in the input variables into uncertainty in the predicted channel characteristics. However, since regime models are fundamentally based on the concept of grade, there are circumstances in which the model does not perform well. We explore the strengths and weaknesses of the UBCRM in this paper, and we attempt to illustrate how the UBCRM can be used to augment the existing qualitative frameworks, and to help guide professionals in their assessments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Channel stability in steep gravel–cobble streams is controlled by the coarse tail of the bed material distribution

Researchers have associated channel-forming flows with reach-average shear stresses close to the entrainment threshold for the surface D₅₀ . We conducted experiments using a model of a generic steep, gravel–cobble stream to test this association. Our results suggest that channel-forming flows fully mobilize the D₅₀ , and produce shear stresses close to the entrainment threshold for the largest grains in the bed. The channel dimensions were set by flows capable of mobilizing between 85% and 90% of the bed surface, which produced a brief period of lateral instability lasting about 1 h, followed by a prolonged period of relative stability during which modest adjustments occurred, but during which the reach-average hydraulics remained about the same. The adjustments during the unstable phase of the experiments are characterized by rapid bank erosion, extensive deposits on the channel bed and a restructuring of the major morphologic elements of the stream. The adjustments during the stable phase of the experiments involved barform migration and bed surface coarsening but did not appreciably modify the physical template established by the end of the unstable phase. The behaviour we observed is not consistent with the concept of a dynamic equilibrium associated with a formative flow that is just capable of entraining the bed surface D₅₀ . Instead, it suggests that rapid adjustments occur once a stability threshold is exceeded, which creates a template that constrains channel activity until another event drives the system across the stability threshold, and re-sets the template. While we believe that it is probably too simplistic to associate a channel-forming discharge with the entrainment threshold for a single grain size, our results suggest that the D₉₅ is a more logical choice than the D₅₀ © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.