It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Reindeer Herders Without Reindeer. The Challenges of Joint Knowledge Production on Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic

Kolguev Island in the Russian Arctic has a unique tundra ecosystem and an indigenous Nenets population whose livelihood is traditionally based on reindeer herding. The Nenets faced a major crisis in 2013–2014 when the reindeer population collapsed. Widely different explanations for this collapse were put forward. This lack of a shared perspective points at the failure of genuine joint knowledge production (JKP) in the island’s UNEP–GEF’s ECORA project (2004–2009). The ECORA project aimed to achieve integrated ecosystem management by stimulating dialog and mutual learning among indigenous people, state agencies, and scientists. This paper analyses the failure of ECORA’s JKP, using a recently developed framework of conditions for successful JKP. The results suggest that ECORA met none of these conditions. It failed at bringing the scientific and indigenous knowledge systems together, and the produced knowledge did not resonate with indigenous people’s perception of living in Kolguev.     

Inter‐population differences in feeding ecology under nitrogen‐limited diets: Field growth and the role of cannibalism in limiting/improving reserve accumulation

Growth is determined by an organism's physiology, physical environment, and biological conditions, including food availability and any intra‐ and inter‐specific interactions that can affect feeding activity. To analyse how all these factors interact to produce final growth in the herbivorous/detritivorous crab Neohelice granulata, we performed field and laboratory experiments with juveniles and adults from three populations which differed genetically as well as in their physical environment and the organic matter (OM) content in the soil that serves as food. We evaluated (a) growth in the field: Juveniles of the three populations were cross‐transplanted in exclusion cages; (b) effect of the presence of adults on juvenile feeding: We measured the feeding activity of small juveniles in presence/absence of an adult male as potential predator in the field; and (c) effect of diet on cannibalism: We analysed the cannibalistic behavior of adult males from two of the populations in the laboratory after they had received protein‐rich (24%) and protein‐poor (3%) diets. In experiment (a), final size was similar for the crabs from all three origins but growth differed between sites. Experiment (b) showed that the presence of adults interfered with feeding activity at the two sites with lower weight indicators. In experiment (c), we observed that low protein diet increased the cannibalistic behavior of adult males, and this effect was more intense in crabs from the poorest food site. Our results contribute to understanding the set of factors and interactions involved in the response of individuals to the prevailing conditions in natural environments in order to maintain a growth rate, perhaps at the expense of different reserve accumulation. They also enable discussion of the limitations of approaches used in laboratory experiments.     

Small‐Scale ASR Between Flow Barriers in a Saline Aquifer

Regular aquifer storage recovery, ASR, is often not feasible for small‐scale storage in brackish or saline aquifers because fresh water floats to the top of the aquifer where it is unrecoverable. Flow barriers that partially penetrate a brackish or saline aquifer prevent a stored volume of fresh water from expanding sideways, thus increasing the recovery efficiency. In this paper, the groundwater flow and mixing is studied during injection, storage, and recovery of fresh water in a brackish or saline aquifer in a flow‐tank experiment and by numerical modeling to investigate the effect of density difference, hydraulic conductivity, pumping rate, cyclic operation, and flow barrier settings. Two injection and recovery methods are investigated: constant flux and constant head. Fresh water recovery rates on the order of 65% in the first cycle climbing to as much as 90% in the following cycles were achievable for the studied configurations with constant flux whereas the recovery efficiency was somewhat lower for constant head. The spatial variation in flow velocity over the width of the storage zone influences the recovery efficiency, because it induces leakage of fresh water underneath the barriers during injection and upconing of salt water during recovery.     

The role of carbon plantations in mitigating climate change: potentials and costs

A methodology is presented to construct supply curves and cost–supply curves for carbon plantations based on land-use scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE 2). A sensitivity analysis for assessing which factors are most important in shaping these curves is also presented. In the IPCC SRES B2 Scenario, the carbon sequestration potential on abandoned agricultural land increases from 60 MtC/year in 2010 to 2,700 MtC/year in 2100 for prices up to 1,000 $/tC, assuming harvest when the mean annual increment decreases and assuming no environmental, economical or political barriers in the implementation-phase. Taking these barriers into consideration would reduce the potential by at least 60%. On the other hand, the potential will increase 55 to 75% if plantations on harvested timberland are considered. Taking into account land and establishment costs, the largest part of the potential up to 2025 can be supplied below 100 $/tC (In this article all dollar values are in US dollars of 1995, unless indicated otherwise.). Beyond 2050, more than 50% of the costs come to over 200 $/tC. Compared to other mitigation options, this is relative cheap. So a large part of the potential will likely be used in an overall mitigation strategy. However, since huge emission reductions are probably needed, the relative contribution of plantations will be low (around 3%). The largest source of uncertainty with respect to both potentials and costs is the growth rate of plantations compared to the natural vegetation.     

Sources of dissolved oxygen in monitoring and pumping wells

Groundwater monitoring and pumping wells set in anoxic aquifers require attention to keep the groundwater free of dissolved oxygen (DO). In properly constructed monitoring or pumping wells, two processes can however still introduce oxygen to anoxic groundwater: (1) permeation of oxygen through polymer materials such as silicone, PVC, HDPE or Teflon, and (2) thermally driven convection, which can occur in all types of piezometers or wells, regardless of construction material, when the water table or pressure head is close (<10 m) to the land surface. Here, field measurements (temperature and DO well loggings) from a monitoring well in Bilthoven, the Netherlands, are combined with analytical and numerical modelling to investigate the role of both processes on oxygenation of anoxic groundwater in wells. The results of numerical and analytical modeling show that both permeation and convection can introduce oxygen into anoxic wells to near saturation concentrations. In the field data gathered, convection is primarily responsible for oxygen intrusion up to a depth of around 12 m. Oxygen intrusion through convection and permeation in monitoring and pumping wells may influence groundwater sampling and analyses, and may contribute to well clogging, depending on site conditions. The combination of field and modelling provides new insights into these processes, which can be used for both groundwater sampling and pumping well design.     

A New Model for Sampling of Particulate Materials and Determination of the Minimum Sample Size

A novel model for the sampling of particulate materials is presented. In this model, the sampling error in concentration estimates due to the random packing of the particles in the batch is distributed according to the recently developed mass-based multinomial distribution. Using the model and assuming ideal sampling, a scheme to estimate the minimum sample mass is verified with computer simulation.     

Anthropogenic changes in the sediment composition of Lake Gości& aogon;ż (central Poland), during the last 330 yrs*

According to historical sources, the development of settlement around Lake Goci& aogon; during the last 330 yrs was intense at two time periods: the second half of the 1700's, and from ca. 1880 until 1944. The small farms were then abandoned, following which the lake surroundings were planted with forest trees. The presented study of human influence on the lake ecosystem and surrounding vegetation has been based on analyses of general sediment composition and its chemistry, pollen, Cyanobacteria, Chlorophyceae, Rotatoria, Cladocera, and a preliminary diatom survey. The history of human impact has been divided into four phases: 1. Phase of small local hamlets (before ca. 1770): The human impact was rather moderate then, but the cultivation of Canabis sativa, Secale cereale and later of Fagopyrum is evidenced from that time. 2. Phase of Hollandii settlement (ca. 1770-1863). Its influence is indicated first by the recession of deciduous wood (Corylus, Carpinus) stands, which triggered drastic drop of calcium in sediments. The development of rural economy in the area, including, an extension of agriculture (Secale and other cereals, crucifers, potatoes), and animal breeding based partly on grazing in the forest, is evidenced only after 1820. 3. Phase of German colonization (1863-1944): In the early periods (before 1910) the pollen spectra do not document any essential change in the type of farming, however, a serious disturbance of the lake ecosystem and sediment chemistry is evidenced by the blooms of Araphidinae diatoms and Tetraedron minimum, a maximum frequency of Bosmina longirostris, disturbances of the regular spring blooms of Chrysophyceae, appearance of vivianite, distinct maxima of organic matter, potassium, and iron concentration in sediments and an increase of the sedimentation rate. An intensification of agricultural activities commenced around 1910; woods, including also pinewoods, were then heavily devastated, and farming extended on poor soils, what was symptomatic for the general poverty of population. Coincidently in the lake, Centriceae showed blooms, Araphidinae diatoms and Tetraedron minimum developed, and the content of potassium, iron and phosphorus increased substantially, indicating altogether rising eutrophication. 4. Phase of restoration of the natural landscape (after 1945): The farm degradation from ca. 1944 is very weakly expressed in pollen data, which show a substantial fall of farming indicators from 1953/6 only, when the whole area was used for forest plantation. It was accompanied by a certainly spontaneous development of Betula and Alnus woods, this process progressing till recent time. The gradual extinction of farming activity near Lake Goci was accompanied by abrupt changes in the lake ecosystem, expressed by the restored blooms of Chrysophyceae expansion of planktonic Cladocera, rapid decline of phosphorus and extinction of vivianite from sediments. As documented by the drop of Cu/Zn ratio, lake hypolimnion has been weakly oxidized since 1949, what was probably responsible for the drop of Fe and Mn content in sediments. Increasing strength of overturns affected preservation of laminae in sediments, which almost completely disappeared after 1966.     

A rare earth element-rich carbonatite dyke at Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, North China

Summary ?A carbonatite dyke, extremely enriched in rare earth elements (REE), is reported from Bayan Obo, Inner Mongolia, North China. The REE content in the dyke varies from 1 wt% to up to 20 wt%. The light REEs are enriched and highly fractionated relative to the heavy REEs, and there is no Eu anomaly. Although carbon isotope δ¹³C (PDB) values of the carbonatites (−7.3 to −4.7‰) are within the range of normal mantle (−5±2‰), oxygen isotope δ¹⁸O (SMOW) (11.9 to 17.7‰) ratios apparently are higher than those of the mantle (5.7±1.0‰), indicating varying degrees of exchange with hydrothermal fluids during or after magmatic crystallization. The carbonatite is the result of partial melting followed by fractional crystallization. Primary carbonatite melt was formed by less than 1% partial melting of enriched mantle, leaving a garnet-bearing residue. The melt then rose to a crustal magma chamber and underwent fractional crystallization, producing further REE enrichment. The REE and trace element distribution patterns of the carbonatites are similar to those of fine-grained dolomite marble, the ore-host rock of the Bayan Obo REE–Nb–Fe giant mineral deposit. This fact may indicate a petrogenetic link between the dykes described here and the Bayan Obo mineral deposit. Received November 1, 2001; revised version accepted June 16, 2002     

Comparison of Theories for the Variance Caused by the Sampling of Random Mixtures of Non-Identical Particles

When sampling a random mixture of non-identical particles, the minimum sample size can be determined once the relationship between the sample size and the variance is known. Many different theories have been proposed to describe this relationship. This article provides a novel and systematic comparison of existing theories based on a set of objective criteria. It is found that none of the existing theories meet all criteria, making further research into the development of a suitable theory necessary.