Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

The best fitting distribution of annual maximum rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia based on methods of L-moment and LQ-moment

This paper discusses patterns of annual and monthly precipitation variability at seven weather stations in east central Europe (1851–2007). Precipitation patterns were compared to three simple regional indices of atmospheric circulation, i.e., western circulation, southern circulation and the cyclonicity (C) index and a relationship between precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation index was identified. Correlations of the monthly records and multiple regression, using a principal components’ analysis, helped determine the statistical significance of the dependence of precipitation on the circulation indices. The Mann–Kendall test revealed no trend to change in any of the precipitation series, but a certain spatial regularity could be discerned in the phase of the annual periodic component. A common feature of the variability in central European annual precipitation is the dry period identified in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. In the northern part of the region, above-average precipitation was noted from the 1960s through to the mid-1970s as a result of the frequent prevalence of depressions. South of the divide, the wettest period was recorded at the turn of 1930s/1940s. After a number of very wet years in the last decade of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century, precipitation began to fall at all of the region’s weather stations. The C index is the strongest circulation-linked factor influencing precipitation in central Europe and it accounts for more than 40% of the variance in spatially averaged wintertime precipitation.     

Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A...     

The effectiveness of the very low frequency electromagnetic method (VLF-EM) in the exploration of sulphide mineralization in arid environments,case study from South Sinai Peninsula,Egypt

Very low frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM) measurements were carried out in Wadi Isbayia area, south Sinai Peninsula, to test the efficiency of the VLF-EM method in the exploration of sulphide mineralization in arid environments. The VLF-EM field measurements, including tilt angle, real and imaginary components of the received VLF field, were carried out along fifteen profiles covering a quartz monzonite bedrock. Interpretation of the VLF measurements, in the light of geological information, has showed that sulphide minerals in the Wadi Isbayia area extend from the ground surface to a depth of about 200 m. However, the structural lineaments, especially faults, have controlled the distribution of the sulphide mineralization. A few of polished sections for rock samples, collected from the sites of the VLF-EM anomalies in the study area, have been prepared and examined by ore microscopy which confirmed the presence of pyrite and chalcopyrite as well as iron oxides, disseminated in the quartz monzonite bedrock. These results showed that the VLF-EM method is an effective tool in the exploration of sulphide minerals in the arid environments.     

Multi-criteria decision-making analysis in selecting suitable plotting positions for IDF curves of storm events

Selecting suitable distributions for rainfall data is usually subjective and complex since it requires decision-makers to consider results from various measures of goodness-of-fit indices. In this study, the VIKOR method in multi-criteria decision-making analysis is modified to select the most suitable plotting positions to represent extreme storm intensities in order to build the intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves of storm events. This is done by considering the rankings provided by all goodness-of-fit indices used to obtain a compromise solution. Nine plotting positions are considered: Weibull (W), Adamowski (A), Gringorten (G), Hazen (H) and Gumbel (EV I) and two known plotting positions for generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution using Pearson’s skewness and another two using L-skewness. The IDF curves obtained are compared to a reference IDF curves which was found using the GEV distribution. The mean and median for three goodness-of-fit indices, the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, CV_RMSE, the mean percentage of difference, Δ, and the coefficient of determination, R ², are taken as the criteria for selection process. The results show that six plotting positions, A, H, W, G and the two plotting positions with L-skewness, are equally superior compared to the other three plotting positions.     

Morphotectonic controls of groundwater flow regime and relating environmental impacts in Northwest Sinai,Egypt

The frequent appearance of some hydro-environmental hazard features, such as waterlogging and soil salinization along the susceptible zones at Northwest Sinai area (NWSA), has put serious challenges and obstacles for a correct and efficient land use planning of this region, for several decades. Although previous studies have shown that the whole region of Northern Sinai is greatly affected by the tectonic movements associated with the Syrian Arc folding system (SAS), NWSA is barren of any obvious surficial structures. The current work aims to investigate the effect of subsurface tectonic features on the hydrogeologic regime of NWSA.Hydrogeological and remote sensing data were integrated with ground geophysical gravity and magnetic measurements, using the geographic information system. Data integration asserts the role played by buried tectonic features not only in governing the landforms of the upper water-bearing quaternary formations but also in controlling their flow regime.Two major subsurface structures were identified through interpreting the geophysical measurements. A buried dome-like structure, dominating the central part of the mapped area, coincides with the radial flow pattern observed on the water table map. At the southwestern corner of the study area, an elevated groundwater level, caused by continuous groundwater accumulation at the discharge boundary, is superimposing a subsurface block-faulted depression. The waterlogging features (saturation of the soil by groundwater and inundation of local depressions due to rising of water table) dominating the discharge lowlands of NWSA support the conclusion that a buried block-faulted structure exerts a strong influence on the thickness and groundwater flow regime of the shallow quaternary aquifer.     

Hydrochemical assessment of groundwater from shallow aquifers in parts of Wadi Al Hamad,Madinah, Saudi Arabia

The present study was carried out in the Mulaylih area which forms a part of Wadi Al Hamad in the Madinah Province of Saudi Arabia. Thirty groundwater samples from agricultural farms were collected and analyzed for various physio-chemical parameters including trace elements. The area is occupied by the Quaternary alluvium deposits which form shallow unconfined aquifers. Evaporation and ion exchange are the major processes which control the major ion chemistry of the area. The extreme aridity has results in high total dissolved solid values (average of 9793.47 mg/l). Trace element concentrations are low and are mainly attributed to geogenic sources (silicate weathering). Na-Cl groundwater type is the main hydrochemical facies found in the area. The waters are found to be oversaturated with calcite/aragonite and dolomite. The average nitrate concentration was found to be 134.10 mg/l and is much higher than the WHO recommended limit of 50 mg/l in drinking water. Their high values are mainly associated with the application of N-fertilizers on the agricultural farms. The average fluoride concentration in the study was found to be 1.54 mg/l. The relation between F and Cl and Cl and Na reveals that the fluoride concentrations are mainly attributed to geogenic sources. A comparison of the groundwater quality with the Saudi drinking water standards shows that the water is unfit for drinking. The high salinity and sodicity of the groundwater make it unfit for irrigation. Principal component analysis resulted in extraction of four principal components accounting for 79.5% of the total data variability and supports the fact that the natural hydrochemical processes (evaporation and ion exchange) control the overall groundwater chemistry.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of shallow alluvial aquifers in Daudkandi upazila in the Meghna flood plain, Bangladesh

The shallow alluvial aquifers of the delta plains and flood plains of Bangladesh, comprises about 70% of total land area are mostly affected by elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in groundwater exposing a population of more than 35 million to As toxicity. Geochemical studies of shallow alluvial aquifer in the Meghna flood plain show that the uppermost yellowish grey sediment is low in As (1.03 mg/kg) compared to the lower dark grey to black sediment (5.24 mg/kg) rich in mica and organic matter. Sequential extraction data show that solid phase As bound to poorly crystalline and amorphous metal (Fe, Mn, Al)-oxyhydroxides is dominant in the grey to dark grey sediment and reaches its maximum level (3.05 mg/kg) in the mica rich layers. Amount of As bound to sulphides and organic matter also peaks in the dark grey to black sediment. Vertical distributions of major elements determined by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) show that iron (Fe₂O₃), aluminum (Al₂O₃) and manganese (MnO) follow the general trend of distribution of As in the sediments. Concentrations of As, Mn, Fe, HCO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻ and NO₃ ⁻ in groundwater reflect the redox status of the aquifer and are consistent with solid phase geochemistry. Mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fitted with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) revealed dominance of crystalline iron oxides and hydroxides like magnetite, hematite and goethite in the oxidised yellowish grey sediment. Amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxides identified as grain coating in the mica and organic matter rich sediment suggests weathering of biotite is playing a critical role as the source of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxides which in turn act as sink for As. Presence of authigenic pyrite in the dark grey sediment indicates active reduction in the aquifer.     

A New Equation for the Shear Strength of Cable Bolts Incorporating the Energy Balance Theory

The application of cable bolts as a secondary support system is an increasing trend in underground coal mines worldwide. The performances of cable bolts have been evaluated under both axial and shear loading conditions. Two methods of testing cables for shear, single and double shear, have been recognised. This paper examines the shear behaviour of a variety of cable bolts under different pre-tension loads by double shear testing. Plain, spiral and the combination of both cable types were used in this study. The initial axial load and the type of cable bolts are the main factors affecting their shear strength. By increasing the axial pre-tension load, the peak shear load occurs at lower shear displacement. The failure angle due to cable bending across the joint at different pre-tension loads varied between 41° and 49°. This demonstrates that the ratio of axial and perpendicular displacements is almost constant and on average the failure occurs at about 45°. A novel analytical model is proposed to evaluate the shear behaviour of pre-tensioned fully grouted cable bolts subjected to double shearing. Energy and Fourier Series methods were incorporated in the model to simulate the shear behaviour of cable bolts. The comparison of the experimental results with the proposed model shows a good agreement.