On the Mátern covariance family: a proposal for modeling temporal correlations based on turbulence theory

Current variance models for GPS carrier phases that take correlation due to tropospheric turbulence into account are mathematically difficult to handle due to numerical integrations. In this paper, a new model for temporal correlations of GPS phase measurements based on turbulence theory is proposed that overcomes this issue. Moreover, we show that the obtained model belongs to the Mátern covariance family with a smoothness of 5/6 as well as a correlation time between 125–175 s. For this purpose, the concept of separation distance between two lines-of-sight introduced by Schön and Brunner (J Geod 1:47–57, 2008a) is extended. The approximations made are highlighted as well as the turbulence parameters that should be taken into account in our modeling. Subsequently, fully populated covariance matrices are easily computed and integrated in the weighted least-squares model. Batch solutions of coordinates are derived to show the impact of fully populated covariance matrices on the least-squares adjustments as well as to study the influence of the smoothness and correlation time. Results for a specially designed network with weak multipath are presented by means of the coordinate scatter and the a posteriori coordinate precision. It is shown that the known overestimation of the coordinate precision is significantly reduced and the coordinate scatter slightly improved in the sub-millimeter level compared to solutions obtained with diagonal, elevation-dependent covariance matrices. Even if the variations are small, turbulence-based values for the smoothness and correlation time yield best results for the coordinate scatter.     

Sea surface temperatures at tide gauges: Case study of San Francisco,California, from 1855 to 1993

Tide gauge observations usually include temperature and density measurements. As an example of such data, a time series of sea surface temperature (SST) from 1855 to 1877 and from 1921 to 1993 at Fort Point, San Francisco, California (the longest U.S. record), and mean air temperature at Mission Dolores (San Francisco), California, from 1936 to 1990, were analyzed. Annual mean Fort Point SST increased at a rate of 0.3°C per century, but the coefficient of determination (r²) was below 0.06; for air temperature the results were 1.6°C per century and r² = 0.16 respectively. Evidence of El Niño were found in the periodogram of the mean annual SST but not in the air temperature. The annual and semiannual peaks in the monthly time‐series analysis of SST and air temperature dominate their periodograms, and the cross‐correlation between them has r² = 0.47. Of the 1.3 mmlyr sea level rise over the same time period. 0.003°C/yr accounts for 0.04 mmlyr in thermal expansion if the upper 100 m of the water column were uniformly warmed.     

The solar photospheric abundance of zirconium

Zirconium (Zr), together with strontium and yttrium, is an important element in the understanding of the Galactic nucleosynthesis. In fact, the triad Sr‐Y‐Zr constitutes the first peak of s‐process elements. Despite its general relevance not many studies of the solar abundance of Zr were conducted. We derive the zirconium abundance in the solar photosphere with the same CO⁵BOLD hydrodynamical model of the solar atmosphere that we previously used to investigate the abundances of C‐N‐O. We review the zirconium lines available in the observed solar spectra and select a sample of lines to determine the zirconium abundance, considering lines of neutral and singly ionised zirconium. We apply different line profile fitting strategies for a reliable analysis of Zr lines that are blended by lines of other elements. The abundance obtained from lines of neutral zirconium is very uncertain because these lines are commonly blended and weak in the solar spectrum. However, we believe that some lines of ionised zirconium are reliable abundance indicators. Restricting the set to Zr II lines, from the CO⁵BOLD 3D model atmosphere we derive A (Zr) = 2.62 ± 0.06, where the quoted error is the RMS line‐to‐line scatter (© 2011 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The use of bioluminescent dinoflagellates as an environmental risk assessment tool

A novel toxicity method to determine sublethal and lethal effects of manmade contaminants on the bioluminescence output from marine dinoflagellates has been developed and tested over the course of 16 years. The toxicity system, QwikLite™, was developed for the sole purpose of evaluating the potential toxicity of various materials used in bay sediments, storm water discharges, industrial discharges from Naval facilities, and antifoulant paints. Bioluminescence inhibition was observed in the following dinoflagellates: Lingulodinium polyedrum (formerly known as Gonyaulax polyedra), Ceratocorys horrida, Pyrocystis noctiluca, Pyrocystis lunula, Pyrocystis fusiformis, and Pyrophacus steinii. Cultured cells were exposed to various concentrations of contaminants from hours through 10 days. Further application with bioluminescent dinoflagellates in a variety of toxicity testing schemes have shown that these species can be used as a screening assay organism in lieu of the more costly, labor intensive bioassays presently in use.     

Early Holocene environmental history of sunken landscapes: pollen, plant macrofossil and geochemical analyses from the Borkum Riffgrund, southern North Sea

A vibrocore from the sea floor of the southern North Sea provides a ~1,500-year record of early Holocene vegetation history and mire development in a landscape now 33 m below sea-level. Pollen, plant macrofossil and geochemical analyses of an AMS ¹⁴C dated sand–peat–marine mud sequence document the paludification on Pleistocene sands ~10,700 cal BP, the subsequent development of eutraphentic carr vegetation and the gradual inundation by the transgressing sea ~9,350 cal BP. Pinus–Corylus woodland prevailed on terrestrial grounds after hazel had immigrated ~10,700 cal BP. Salix dominated the carr vegetation throughout 1,300 years of peat formation, because Alnus did not spread in the Borkum Riffgrund area until 9,300 BP. Brackish reed vegetation with Phragmites established after inundation and siliciclastic marine sediments were being deposited. This article also examines the detection and suitability of key horizons indicative of marine influence. XRF-Scanning provides the most detailed results in the briefest possible time to pinpoint spectra best suitable for AMS ¹⁴C dating of classical key horizons such as start of peat formation and transgressive contact. The combined application of botanical and geochemical methods allows determining new key horizons indicative of marine influence, namely the earliest marine inundation and the onset of sea-level influence on coastal ground water level.     

Relating 27-Day Averages of Solar,Interplanetary Medium Parameters,and Geomagnetic Activity Proxies in Solar Cycle 24

Solar Physics - During solar minimum, the Sun is relatively inactive with few sunspots observed on the solar surface. Consequently, we observe a smaller number of highly energetic events such as...     

Evaluating Renewable Groundwater Stress with GRACE Data in Greece

Groundwater is a resilient water source and its importance is even greater in periods of drought. Areas such as the Mediterranean where adverse climate change effects are expected are bell‐weather locations for groundwater depletion and are of considerable interest. The present study evaluates renewable groundwater stress (RGS) as the ratio of groundwater use to groundwater availability, quantifying use as the trend in gravity recovery and climate experiment‐derived (GRACE) subsurface anomalies (ΔGW_trend) and renewable groundwater availability as mean annual recharge. Estimates for mean annual recharge for the various regions in Greece have been derived using numerical models. Our results highlight two RGS regimes in Greece (variable stress and unstressed) of the four characteristic stress regimes, that is, overstressed, variable stress, human‐dominated stress, and unstressed, defined as a function of the sign of use and the sign of groundwater availability (positive or negative). Variable stress areas are found in Central Greece (Thessaly region), where intensive agriculture results in negative ΔGW_trend values combined with positive mean annual recharge rates. RGS values range from ?0.05 to 0, indicating a low impact area. Within this region, adverse effects of groundwater overexploitation are already evident based on the negative GRACE anomalies; however, recharge is still positive, mitigating the effects of over‐pumping. The rest of Greek aquifers fall within the unstressed category, with RGS values from 0.02 to 0.05, indicating that the rate of use is less than the natural recharge rate.     

The first post‐injection seismic monitor survey at the Ketzin pilot CO2 storage site: results from time‐lapse analysis

The injection of CO₂ at the Ketzin pilot CO₂ storage site started in June 2008 and ended in August 2013. During the 62 months of injection, a total amount of about 67 kt of CO₂ was injected into a saline aquifer. A third repeat three‐dimensional seismic survey, serving as the first post‐injection survey, was acquired in 2015, aiming to investigate the recent movement of the injected CO₂. Consistent with the previous two time‐lapse surveys, a predominantly west–northwest migration of the gaseous CO₂ plume in the up‐dip direction within the reservoir is inferred in this first post‐injection survey. No systematic anomalies are detected through the reservoir overburden. The extent of the CO₂ plume west of the injection site is almost identical to that found in the 2012 second repeat survey (after injection of 61 kt); however, there is a significant decrease in its size east of the injection site. Assessment of the CO₂ plume distribution suggests that the decrease in the size of the anomaly may be due to multiple factors, such as limited vertical resolution, CO₂ dissolution, and CO₂ migration into thin layers, in addition to the effects of ambient noise. Four‐dimensional seismic modelling based on dynamic flow simulations indicates that a dynamic balance between the newly injected CO₂ after the second repeat survey and the CO₂ migrating into thin layers and being dissolved was reached by the time of the first post‐injection survey. In view of the significant uncertainties in CO₂ mass estimation, both patchy and non‐patchy saturation models for the Ketzin site were taken into consideration.     

Late Palaeozoic red beds elucidate fluvial architectures preserving large woody debris in the seasonal tropics of central Pangaea

Fluvial red beds containing anatomically preserved large woody debris shed new light on seasonally dry biomes of the Pennsylvanian–Permian transition and elucidate the concurrence of river depositional systems and vegetation. As a result, the occurrence, distribution and preservation of petrified large woody debris accumulations are considered crucial to understanding the role of arborescent vegetation in shaping fluvial environments. This study reports sizeable silicified trunks and corresponding fluvial architectures from the uppermost Pennsylvanian (upper Gzhelian) Siebigerode Formation (Kyffhäuser, central Germany). The origin, taphonomy and depositional environment of the fossil woods are elucidated by using a multidisciplinary approach including geological mapping, lithofacies analysis, sediment petrography, wood anatomical studies and microstructure analyses. Results reflect the gradual burial of a gentle basement elevation by sand-bed to gravel-bed braided rivers at the north-western margin of the perimontane Saale Basin. Facies architectures resulted from a complex interplay of syndepositional tectonics, repeated palaeorelief rejuvenation, high-frequency channel avulsion, seasonally dry climate and woody debris–sediment interactions. The alluvial influx and cut-bank erosion recruited trunks from adjacent semi-riparian slope habitats vegetated by up to 40 m tall cordaitaleans and conifers. High discharge in wide braids facilitated uncongested transport of large woody debris. Trunk entombment and initial preservation resulted from grounding on barforms, anchoring by attached roots and subsequent burial. The post-depositional two-phase silicification was influenced by hydrothermal hematite mineralization and determined a selective wood preservation pattern known as ‘pointstone’. Large woody debris-induced sedimentary structures (‘LWDISS’) are introduced as a class of sediment structures formed by the biogenic impact on terrestrial deposition.     

Biodiversity Conservation in the REDD

Background

Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.

Results

We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.

Conclusions

The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.