An Algorithm on Convective Weather Potential in the Early Rainy Season over the Pearl River Delta in China

This paper describes the procedure and methodology to formulate the convective weather potential （CWP） algorithm. The data used in the development of the algorithm are the radar echoes at 0.5° elevation from Guangzhou Doppler Radar Station, surface observations from automatic weather stations （AWS） and outputs of numeric weather prediction （NWP） models. The procedure to develop the CWP algorithm consists of two steps： （1） identification of thunderstorm cells in accordance with specified statistical criteria; and （2） development of the algorithm based on multiple linear regression. The thunderstorm cells were automatically identified by radar echoes with intensity greater than or equal to 50 dB（Z） and of an area over 64 square kilometers. These cells are generally related to severe convective weather occurrences such as thunderstorm wind gusts, hail and tornados. In the development of the CWP algorithm, both echo- and environment-based predictors are used. The predictand is the probability of a thunderstorm cell to generate severe convective weather events. The predictor-predictand relationship is established through a stepwise multiple linear regression approach. Verification with an independent dataset shows that the CWP algorithm is skillful in detecting thunderstorm-related severe convective weather occurrences in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of South China. An example of a nowcasting case for a thunderstorm process is illustrated.     

CO2湍流通量误差的修正和不确定性研究进展

目前国内外对能量和CO₂涡动相关通量的测量误差的谱修正缺乏一致性，导致各测量站之间的资料对比难以进行，给全球尺度资料的合成造成很大困难。因此在强调长期CO₂通量测量精度的同时，还应该注重确定对测量误差修正的首选方法和研究重点。该文主要介绍了两种用于修正测量仪器误差的谱方法；二维和三维的气流运动对通量误差的影响；资料处理中的误差；夜间CO₂通量的测量问题。     

北京大气边界层中风和温度廓线的观测研究

为了研究冬季北京城区大气边界层结构的特征,分别在城区和郊区4个观测点利用系留气艇在2001年1月5～13日和2月21～28日进行了大气廓线探测,并分析了温度和风廓线垂直变化的基本特征.初步结果显示城市热岛效应十分明显,热岛强度随高度增加而递减,近地层热岛强度在晴天最大可达到4℃左右.除了近地层郊区的风速大于城区外,城区和郊区风速的垂直分布特征有较大差异.在100～200m高度以下,城区和郊区风速和风向随高度分布都出现了明显的拐点,300 m以上高度风向和风速基本趋于一致,表明城区和郊区的风廓线均受到城市覆盖层的影响.随着北京市区的规模不断扩大,在今后探测中应考虑郊区测点的代表性.     

涡度相关仪倾斜订正方法的比较及应用

利用973暴雨项目2002年在安徽肥西观测的涡度相关资料,针对目前涡度相关法中存在的仪器倾斜误差问题,采用两种倾斜订正方法计算湍流参数并进行对比分析.结果表明,三次坐标轴旋转倾斜订正方法和平面拟合方法均可以对仪器倾斜引起的误差进行坐标旋转订正,有效剔除仪器倾斜引起的侧向应力的影响,以及仪彝倾斜时水平方向风速引起的虚假湍流通量,提高了湍流通量的计算精度.两种倾斜订正方法各有一定适用条倬,平面拟合方法优于三次坐标轴旋转倾斜订正方法.