Preliminary Analysis of V and Hp Light Curves of 26 Carbon Miras

Light variations of a representative sample of 26 more or less periodically variable carbon stars were analyzed on the basis of 2220 individual observations made by the Hipparcos satellite and 33 544 visual observations listed in AFOEV and VSOLJ databases within the interval JD = 2 448 000 (1988) ±6 cycles. We found the osculating linear ephemerides of all stars and their mean light curves, as well. We found that the light curves of the carbon Miras in our set can be satisfactorily expressed as a linear combination of only two basic light curves. The analysis was done by an own method combining robust regression and principal component analysis.     

Flare activity variations on stars of different ages comparable to those of the sun

Photometric data collected by wide-field photographic telescopes with medium time resolution provided the raw material for this study. More than 1500 flare-ups of stars of the Tauri fields were statistically investigated and flare activity variations of the most active objects were analyzed. Such variations seem to be usual rather than exceptional.Although observational selection effects raised difficulties, a new method developed in order to exempt from dubious data was tested successfully and used regularly. It was found that activity variations of dwarf stars are common on younger and older objects too.Time-dependence of these phenomena is reminiscent of the solar white-light flare occurrence.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.     

An analysis of surges triggered by a small flare

On 22 October, 1980, near the solar central meridian in the western vicinity of a large spot group, a subflare of the two-ribbon type was observed. Three surges were associated with this flare. Their starting points were situated close to the principal flare patches on both sides of a short filament that was visible for only a few hours. True flow velocities and decelerations along the arch-shaped surge trajectories have been determined for two of the surges. The highest velocities were found at the onset of the surges.The event was studied from a series of H on- and off-band flltergrams taken with the Debrecen coronagraph of 53 cm aperture.     

Observed and projected climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries according to Feddema

Climate change in the European region during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries is analyzed according to Feddema’s method. Precipitation and air temperature data from the twentieth century are taken from the Climatic Research Unit, while data for the twenty-first century are taken from the ENSEMBLES climate change project. The latter were bias-corrected to ensure homogeneity across the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Climate classes based on monthly and annual values of potential evapotranspiration, precipitation and their ratio, are defined for 30-year averages, from which trend and spatial agreement analysis are calculated. There are separate classes for annual values and for intra-annual variation. The results indicate that the change of annual climate characteristics will be much more intense in the twenty-first than it was in the twentieth century. The dominant process in the projections is warming, mostly via cold to cool (about 45% of grid points) in north Europe and cool to warm (about 8% of grid points) transformations. The second most important process is the drying of moderately moist classes affecting about 10% of the grid points in south Europe. Changes in intra-annual variability classes are more common than changes in the annual ones during the twentieth century. The chance of increase in intra-annual temperature variation from high to extreme is about 5% during the course of the twentieth century, and about 10% in the following century.     

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

Climate change in Hungary during the twentieth century according to Feddema

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change in Hungary during the twentieth century is analyzed using Feddema’s original scheme suitable for global scale applications (F-GS) and...     

Testing spatial heterogeneity in geographically weighted principal components analysis

We propose a method to evaluate the existence of spatial variability in the covariance structure in a geographically weighted principal components analysis (GWPCA). The method, that is extensive to locally weighted principal components analysis, is based on performing a statistical hypothesis test using the eigenvectors of the PCA scores covariance matrix. The application of the method to simulated data shows that it has a greater statistical power than the current statistical test that uses the eigenvalues of the raw data covariance matrix. Finally, the method was applied to a real problem whose objective is to find spatial distribution patterns in a set of soil pollutants. The results show the utility of GWPCA versus PCA.     

Galileo Constellation Design

A significant effort has been carried out in Europe to define the European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), named Galileo Satellites flying in Medium Earth Orbits (MEO) will compose the system (according to the most recent architecture definition baseline); a regional complement of geosynchronous satellites may be required to increase performances over Europe and maybe also to provide some specific communication services. Nominal medium performances are envisaged, but they will be increased by means of augmentation systems (local or wide area), or even by using simultaneously other GNSSs such as GPS. All the involved requirements make the design process quite complex. A powerful software tool, Elcano, has been developed for this purpose; its capabilities will be outlined, and the results of the design process will be presented. ? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Timing of low-temperature metamorphism and cooling of the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations of the Bükkium,innermost Western Carpathians,Hungary

K-Ar ages of illite-muscovite and fission track ages of zircon and apatite were determined from various lithotypes of the Bükkium, which forms the innermost segment of the Western Carpathians. The stratigraphic ages of these Dinaric type formations cover a wide range from the Late Ordovician up to the Late Jurassic. The grade of the orogenic dynamo-thermal metamorphism varies from the late diagenetic zone through the anchizone up to the epizone (chlorite, maximally biotite isograd of the greenschist facies). The K-Ar system of the illite-muscovite in the < 2 m grain-size fraction approached equilibrium only in epizonal and high-temperature anchizonal conditions. The orogenic metamorphism culminated between the eo-Hellenic (160-120 Ma) phase connected to the beginning of the subduction in the Dinarides, and the Austrian (100-95 Ma) phase characterized by compressional crustal thickening. No isotope geochronological evidence was found for proving any Hercynian recrystallization. The stability field of fission tracks in zircon was approached using the thermal histories of the different tectonic units. A temperature less than 250°C and effective heating time of 20–30 Ma had only negligible effects on the tracks, whereas total annealing was reached between 250 and 300°C. Apatite fission track ages from the Paleozoic and Mesozoic formations show that the uplift of the Bükk Mountains occurred only in the Tertiary (not earlier than ca. 40 Ma ago). Thermal modeling based on apatite fission track length spectra and preserved Paleogene sediment thickness data proved that the Late Neogene burial of the recently exhumed plateau of the Bükk Mountains exceeded 1 km.