城市时空大数据驱动的新型冠状病毒传播风险评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

2019年末至2020年初新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的快速传播对中国与世界的公共卫生带来巨大的挑战。如何科学合理地评估新型冠状病毒传播风险并制定相应防疫管控措施,是各国所面临的难题,也是科学防治与精准施策的重要依据之一。作为我国最重要的城市群之一,粤港澳大湾区受本次新型冠状病毒影响较大,且春节假期后大量的复工回流人口进一步带来潜在的传播风险。本文面向粤港澳大湾区新型冠状病毒传播风险评估的紧迫需求,结合大湾区多源城市时空大数据与流行病动力学模型,构建适宜大湾区的改进模型,并对新型冠状病毒在大湾区的传播风险和各类防疫管控措施效果进行评估与模拟。首先,引入动态复工回流人口和聚集热点改进现有动力学模型(SEIR模型),对现有动力学模型在不同空间评估单元的传播参数进行纠偏,加强模型在大湾区评估中的适宜性;利用手机信令等多源城市大数据,构建更精细化的人口、疾病流动矩阵和相应的传染病动力学模型,以满足各级防疫部门精细化(如村(社区)级)风险评估的迫切需求。模拟结果表明,相对经典SEIR模型,改进模型在大湾区的传播风险评估中具有更强的适宜性;大湾区高强度的人口流动为病毒的传播带来较高的风险;防疫部门所采取各类管控措施对病毒在大湾区的传播具有较强的抑制作用。     

枣庄地区寒武纪_早奥陶世层序地层特征

枣庄地区寒武纪-早奥陶世处于被动大陆边缘陆棚环境,沉积序列受海平面的周期性变化所控制.由寒武系底部不整合面和怀远运动间断面所限定的地层组合,可划分为A,B两个二级层序和12个三级层序,其中张夏组底界面与二级层序底界面一致,为一个由陆源浑水沉积环境向碳酸盐清水沉积环境演化的转换面.     

The possible influences of the increasing anthropogenic emissions in India on tropospheric ozone and OH

A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the influences of the increasing anthropogenic emission in India. The model is capable of reproducing the observational results of the INDOEX experiment and the measurements in summer over India well. The model results show that when NOx and CO emissions in India are doubled, ozone concentration increases, and global average OH decreases a little. Under the effects of the Indian summer monsoon, NOx and CO in India are efficiently transported into the middle and upper troposphere by the upward current and the convective activities so that the NOx, CO, and ozone in the middle and upper troposphere significantly increase with the increasing NOx and CO emissions. These increases extensively influence a part of Asia, Africa, and Europe, and persist from June to September.     

陇西民和黄土CaCO3和有机碳总量的含量变化及其气候指标的局限性

民和黄土地处黄土高原与青藏高原东北缘的交接部位,对气候反应较敏感,对该黄土1.87-0.70Ma BP段进行了CaCO3和有机碳总量（TOC）的采样分析。民和黄土CoCO3含量在5.89%-18.63%之间变化,平均11.41%;有机碳含量较低,在0.007%-0.452%之间,平均0.088%。民和黄土中的CaCO3含量明显高于兰州、洛川和西安等地,而有机碳含量则远低于上述地区。黄土中CaCO3和有机碳含量变化反映了该区1.87Ma BP以来气候变干冷的趋向。分别受复杂的CaCO3来源与类型、困难的采样、地区上的差异对比等和有机碳保存条件、沉积速率以及“埋藏效应”的影响,黄土中的CaCO3和有机碳的波动变化作为气候变化的替代性指标存在一定的局限性。文章最后指出,在实际应用中,黄土（特别是黄土高原西北部）中CaCO3和有机碳气候指标应结合其他环境指标共同使用,才能从中提取正确的古气候信息。     

电吸附元素异常来源及找矿模式

电吸附元素异常来源于深部矿体,主要是在各种后期地质作用下溶解了矿体中的矿质成分,并扩散迁移至地表,形成能反映矿体的电吸附晕。电吸附找矿方法在金属矿上所捕获到的异常是在矿体中心垂直投影位置以块状异常出现的称“顶部晕”。在大红山铜矿和李坝金矿上异常也反映了这种异常特征。     

科学大洋钻探中的新技术

大洋钻探诸多科学目标的实现与包括钻探、取芯、测试和海底观测技术在内的各种新技术的开发和革新密不可分。即将开展的IODP计划,将对各种技术提出新的要求。在钻探技术上,将联合使用多平台,以实现区域更广深度更大的钻探作业;在取芯技术上,取样范围更广,从各种岩石取样到地下流体的取样,并要求样品保持原始状态,同时确保获得更高的岩芯采收率;在测试上,要求采用随钻测试技术,以适时地获得地下真实信息;在观测技术上,要求开发各种工具,去除由于钻探造成的扰动,使得各种观测仪器能够进行长期的跟踪观测。     

CLOBAL CHARM OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER DELTA

1SPLENDOROFHISTORICALCULTURE InChina,theChangjiang(Yangtze)RiverDelta①gen-erallymeansanadvancedproductivityandculture,whichaffectsdeeplynotonlythewholeChinabutal-sotheAsian-Pacificregion,evenEuropeandAfrica. 1.1CradlefortheCommunicationandPropagationofCivilization ThedevelopmentcourseoftheChangjiangRiverDelta'scultureisdevious,buttheNeolithicHemuduCultureexcavatedinYuyaoCityofZhejiangProvinceindicatestheadvancedpaddyriceculture;MajiabangCulture5000aB.P.andEastBridgeRuin…     

Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CH<Subscript>4</Subscript> and N<Subscript>2</Subscript>O from alpine grassland in the Tibetan Plateau

Using static chamber technique,fluxes of CO2,CH4 and N2O were measured in the alpine grassland area from July 2000 to July 2001,determinations of mean fluxes showed that CO2 and N2O were generally released from the soil,while the alpine grassland accounted for a weak CH4 sink.Fluxes of CO2,CH4 and N2O ranged widely.The highest CO2 emission occurred in August,whereas almost 90?of the whole year emission occurred in the growing season.But the variations of CH4 and N2O fluxes did not show any clear patterns over the one-year-experiment.During a daily variation,the maximum CO2 emission occurred at 16:00,and then decreased to the minimum emission in the early morning.Daily pattern analyses indicated that the variation in CO2 fluxes was positively related to air temperatures(R^2=0.73)and soil temperatures at a depth of 5 cm(R^2=0.86),whereas daily variations in CH4 and N2O fluxes were poorly explained by soil temperatures and climatic variables.CO2 emissions in this area were much lower than other grasslands in plain areas.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> processes in an alpine grassland ecosystem on the Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, the CO2 concentrations profile from 1.5 m depth in soil to 32 m height in atmosphere were measured from July 2000 to July 2001 in an alpine grassland ecosystem located in the permafrost area on the Tibetan Plateau, which revealed that CO2 concentrations varied greatly during this study period. Mean concentrations during the whole experiment in the atmosphere were absolutely lower than the CO2 concentrations in soil, which resulted in CO2 emissions from the alpine steppe soil to the atmosphere. The highest CO2 concentration was found at a depth of 1.5 m in soil while the lowest CO2 concentration occurred in the atmosphere. Mean CO2 concentrations in soil generally increased with depth. This was the compositive influence of the increasing soil moistures and decreasing soil pH, which induced the increasing biological activities with depth. Temporally, the CO2 concentrations at different layers in air remained a more steady state because of the atmospheric turbulent milking. During the seasonal variations, CO2 concentrations at surface soil interface showed symmetrical patterns, with the lowest accumulation of CO2 occurring in the late winter and the highest CO2 concentration in the growine seasons.     

香格里拉生态旅游资源的开发初探

1933年英国作家詹姆斯·希尔顿的小说《失去的地平线》出版 ,从此香格里拉 (Shangri-la)在人们心灵深处传播。香格里拉是迪庆藏族人民“心中的日月” ,它象征人神共有的自然和谐的美好境界 ,是天地人合一的意境。通过对香格里拉县的生态旅游资源进行梳理 ,总结了香格里拉生态旅游资源的组合特征 ,对生态旅游资源的现状进行了分析 ,并进一步探讨生态旅游产品开发过程中存在的问题 ,提出了香格里拉旅游可持续发展的对策和措施 ,以便更好地促进香格里拉旅游业的可持续发展。