Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Successional changes in soil and hyporheic nitrogen fertility on an alluvial flood plain: implications for riparian vegetation

In floodplain primary succession, vegetation colonizes nitrogen-poor alluvial deposits and fertility improves as soil nitrogen accumulates over time. It is generally assumed that vegetation assimilates the vast majority of its nitrogen from the soil; however, recent studies have suggested that the hyporheic zone also may be an important nitrogen source. We investigated the potential relative importance of hyporheic nitrogen by comparing fertility indices, specifically total (TN), dissolved inorganic (DIN), potentially mineralizable (PMN) and ion exchange resin nitrogen (IERN) in both soils and the hyporheic zone at early, mid and late succession stands on an expansive river flood plain. We also constructed mesocosms to assess growth of cottonwood cuttings with access to soil and/or hyporheic water. We found TN and PMN increased from early to mid succession in both the soil (to 10 cm) and hyporheic zone (in a 10 cm layer). While TN, DIN and PMN were an order of magnitude higher in the soil than in the hyporheic zone, IERN was higher in the hyporheic zone, indicating that subsurface flow through the flood plain may be important in delivering nitrogen to the root zone. However, even when flux was added to the hyporheic PMN pool, nitrogen availability in the hyporheic zone (in a 10 cm layer) was vastly lower than soil PMN (to 10 cm). Further, the instantaneous standing stock of DIN in the surface soil alone was about equal to the sum of the DIN pool, the mean subsurface flux and the PMN pool in a 10 cm layer of hyporheic zone. In the mesocosm experiment, cottonwood cuttings with access to both soil and hyporheic water grew fastest; however, they also had the lowest foliar nitrogen concentrations, indicating that this was not due to greater nitrogen availability. In the field, nitrogen content of cottonwood foliage increased along with soil (but potentially hyporheic as well) nitrogen accumulation during succession, suggesting the vegetation responded to increasing nitrogen fertility. We conclude that at least on a per unit-volume basis, the hyporheic zone probably provides little nitrogen relative to the surface soil, except on new alluvial bars that characteristically are nitrogen poor. Therefore, the hyporheic zone is probably a much smaller nitrogen source for mature forests relative to the surface soil unless the vegetation exploits a much larger volume of the hyporheic zone than surface soil.     

Mixed Land Use and Obesity: An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Land Use Measures and Geographic Scales

Obesity is a growing epidemic in the United States. Walkable neighborhoods, characterized as having the three Ds of walkability (population Density, land use Diversity, and pedestrian-friendly Design), have been identified as a potentially promising factor to prevent obesity for residents. Past studies examining the relationship between obesity and walkability vary in geographic scales of neighborhood definitions and methods of measuring the three Ds. To better understand potential influences of these sometimes arbitrary choices, we test how four types of alternative measures of land use diversity measured at three geographic scales relate to body mass index for 4,960 Salt Lake County adults. Generalized estimation equation models demonstrate that optimal diversity measures differed by gender and geographic scale and that integrating walkability measures at different scales improved the overall performance of models.     

The practicalities of using CFCs and SF6 for groundwater dating and tracing

Knowledge of groundwater residence time is important in understanding key issues in the evolution of water quality, whether this occurs due to water–rock interaction or simply by mixing or contamination. The build-up in the atmosphere of the trace gases chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) from the middle of the last century offers a convenient way of dating waters up to ∼60 a old. The gases are well-mixed in the atmosphere so their input functions are not area-specific as is the case with ³H. While any one of these trace gases can in principle provide a groundwater age, when two or more are measured on water samples the potential exists to distinguish between different modes of flow including piston flow, exponential flow and simple end-member mixing. As with all groundwater dating methods, caveats apply. Factors such as recharge temperature and elevation must be reasonably well-constrained. Primarily for SF₆, the phenomenon of ‘excess air’ also requires consideration. Primarily for the CFCs, local sources of contamination need to be considered, as do redox conditions. For both SF₆ and the CFCs, the nature and thickness of the unsaturated zone need to be factored into residence time calculations. However, as an inexpensive dating method, the trace gases can be applied to a wide range of groundwater problems where traditional age indicators might once have been used more sparingly. Examples include tracing flowlines, detecting small modern inputs in ‘old’ waters, and pollution risk assessment. In the future, with the main CFCs already declining in the atmosphere, new anthropogenic trace gases are likely to take their place.     

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.     

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of ‘high-level marine objectives’ which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.     

Multiscale structure of UXO site characterization: spatial estimation and uncertainty quantification

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) site characterization must consider both how the contamination is generated and how we observe that contamination. Within the generation and observation processes, dependence structures can be exploited at multiple scales. We describe a conceptual site characterization process, the dependence structures available at several scales, and consider their statistical estimation aspects. It is evident that most of the statistical methods that are needed to address the estimation problems are known but their application-specific implementation may not be available. We demonstrate estimation at one scale and propose a representation for site contamination intensity that takes full account of uncertainty, is flexible enough to answer regulatory requirements, and is a practical tool for managing detailed spatial site characterization and remediation. The representation is based on point process spatial estimation methods that require modern computational resources for practical application. These methods have provisions for including prior and covariate information.     

The feasibility of isolation and detection of fullerenes and carbon nanotubes using the benzene polycarboxylic acid method

The incorporation of fullerenes and carbon nanotubes into electronic, optical and consumer products will inevitably lead to the presence of these anthropogenic compounds in the environment. To date, there have been few studies isolating these materials from environmental matrices. Here we report a method commonly used to quantify black carbon (BC) in soils, the benzene polycarboxylic acid (BPCA) method, for measurement of two types of single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), two types of fullerenes and two forms of soot. The distribution of BC products (BPCAs) from the high pressure and high temperature oxidation illustrates the condensed nature of these compounds because they form predominantly fully substituted mellitic acid (B6CA). The conversion of carbon nanoparticles to BPCAs was highest for fullerenes (average of 23.2 ± 4.0% C recovered for both C₆₀ and C₇₀) and lowest for non-functionalized SWCNTs (0.5 ± 0.1% C). The recovery of SWCNTs was 10 times higher when processed through a cation-exchange column, indicating the presence of metals in SWCNTs compromises the oxidation chemistry. While mixtures of SWCNTs, soot and sediment revealed small losses of black carbon during sample processing, the method is suitable for quantifying total BC. The BPCA distribution of mixtures did not agree with theoretical mixtures using model polyaromatic hydrocarbons, suggesting the presence of a matrix effect. Future work is required to quantify different types of black carbon within the same sample.     

The ISO-SWS detectors: Performance trends and space radiation effects

We present a trend analysis of the ISO-SWS detector performance and a study of the space radiation effects on the SWS detectors. In particular, dark currents, dark current noise and detector responses have been checked as a function of time through the mission and as a function of time in arevolution. The results show that these parameters were stable during the mission in all bandsbut for band 3 (Si:As). Dark currents and responses were found to be higherin the first hours following the start of the science window,especially in band 2 (Si:Ga). We have studied the impacts of cosmic rays and radiation belt particles on the SWS detectors, as well as of the only large solar proton event on November 6, 1997,that occurred during the ISO mission (operated during solar minimum).The observed glitch rates in all SWS bands are found to be between 2 and4 times higher than the value predicted by the CREME96 model for the cosmic ray flux in the period considered. The bands that registered the highest glitch rates showed also a correlation with the electron fluxes measured on theGOES 9 spacecraft. From the distribution of glitchheights (voltage jumps in the detector signal), we have derived the deposited energy distributions of the particles hits. Our results lead to the conclusion that secondaryparticles produced in the shield and the detectors contributed at least as much as cosmic rays to the observed glitch rate. The effects on the detectors of the November 6, 1997 event, which caused that all observationsin a revolution were declared failed, are described in detail.     

Adaptive optics near-infrared imaging of NGC 2992 – unveiling core structures related to radio figure-of-8 loops

We present near-infrared adaptive optics, Very Large Array (VLA) radio and Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) optical imaging of the nearby Seyfert galaxy NGC 2992. Spiral structure and an extension to the west are traced down to the core region at the limiting resolution of our near-infrared images. A faint, diffuse loop of near-infrared and radio emission is also observed to the north, embedded within the prominent 2-arcsec radio loop previously observed to the north-west. Near-infrared colour maps and CO narrow-band imaging are then used to identify which regions may not be purely reddened stellar populations. Our new data provide evidence that the VLA radio-loop morphology in the shape of a figure of 8 represents two components superimposed: (1) outflow bubbles out of the plane of the disc, coincident with the extended emission-line region (EELR); (2) star formation along the spiral arm within the galaxy disc and through the dust lane. The near-infrared continuum emission associated with the outflowing radio bubbles suggests that the radio loops are driven by the active nucleus.