Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia

A comparison of two approaches for determining probabilistic climate change impacts is presented. In the first approach, ensemble climate projections are applied directly as inputs to an impact model and the risk of impact is computed from the resulting ensemble of outcomes. As this can involve large numbers of projections, the approach may prove to be impractical when applied to complex impact models with demanding input requirements. The second approach is to construct an impact response surface based on a sensitivity analysis of the impact model with respect to changes in key climatic variables, and then to superimpose probabilistic projections of future climate onto the response surface to assess the risk of impact. To illustrate this comparison, an impact model describing the spatial distribution of palsas in Fennoscandia was applied to estimate the risk of palsa disappearance. Palsas are northern mire complexes with permanently frozen peat hummocks, located at the outer limit of the permafrost zone and susceptible to rapid decline due to regional warming. Probabilities of climate changes were derived from an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections using a re-sampling method. Results indicated that the response surface approach, though introducing additional uncertainty, gave risk estimates of area decline for palsa suitability that were comparable to those obtained using multiple simulations with the original palsa model. It was estimated as very likely (>90% probability) that a decline of area suitable for palsas to less than half of the baseline distribution will occur by the 2030s and likely (>66%) that all suitable areas will disappear by the end of the twenty-first century under scenarios of medium (A1B) and moderately high (A2) emissions. For a low emissions (B1) scenario, it was more likely than not (>50%) that conditions over a small fraction of the current palsa distribution would remain suitable until the end of the twenty-first century.     

Impact of increasing CO2 on monthly-to-annual precipitation extremes: analysis of the CMIP2 experiments

The impact of increasing atmospheric CO₂ on high and low extremes of monthly-to-annual precipitation is studied using 20 model experiments participating in the second phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP2). In marked contrast with previous research on daily precipitation extremes, the simulated changes in extremes on these longer time scales are well correlated with the changes in the long-term mean precipitation: wet extremes become more severe especially where the mean precipitation increases, and dry extremes where the mean precipitation decreases. Changes in relative variability play a smaller but discernible role. In an ensemble-mean sense, the variability increases slightly in most areas, so that the contrast between the high and low precipitation extremes grows larger with increasing CO₂. The changes in the frequency of extremes (fraction of cases with precipitation above a high or below a low predefined threshold) are much larger than the changes in their magnitude. Most of the ensemble-averaged changes in the frequency of extremes can be reconstructed by using the changes in time mean precipitation alone, provided that the variation in time mean precipitation change between different models is taken into account. The nonlinear relationship between the mean precipitation and the frequency of extremes complicates the interpretation of the frequency changes, especially when averaging frequencies over different models.     

A case study of airborne and satellite remote sensing of a spring bloom event in the Gulf of Finland

The concentrations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a), total suspended solids (TSS) and the absorption coefficient of colored dissolved organic matter (a_CDOM(400)) are estimated in Case II waters using medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) satellite (full resolution [FR] level 1b, 300 m resolution) and AISA airborne spectrometer data acquired during a spring bloom in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea on April 27, 2004. The accuracy of the estimation is analyzed using empirical band-ratio algorithms together with in situ observations that include water samples analyzed in a laboratory (variation ranges: 22–130 μg/l, 2.9–20 mg/l, and 1.29–2.61 m⁻¹ for chl-a, TSS and a_CDOM(400), respectively). Additional in situ estimates (transects) on these characteristics are available through absorption and scattering coefficients measured with an ac-9 absorption and attenuation meter installed in a flow-through system. The retrieval accuracy (R²) of all three water quality characteristics with MERIS data is close to or above 0.9, while the RMSE is 7.8 μg/l (22%), 0.74 mg/l (16%) and 0.08 m⁻¹ (5%), for chl-a, TSS and a_CDOM(400), respectively. The validity of the chl-a algorithm is tested using nine additional data points. The BIAS-error for these points is 5.2 μg/l and the RMSE is 10.6 μg/l. The effects of changes in the atmospheric characteristics on band-ratio algorithms in cases where no concurrent in situ reference data are available are analyzed using the MODerate spectral resolution atmospheric TRANSmittance algorithm and computer model (MODTRAN). The additional error due to these changes is estimated to be below 20% for the applied ratio algorithms. The water quality data available in the level 2 MERIS-product distributed by the European Space Agency did not include valid results for the date investigated here.     

Bidirectional reflectance spectrometry of gravel at the Sjökulla test field

The Sjökulla test site is used for testing and calibrating aerial images. The permanent test field is made of four types of gravel (dark gabbro, grey granite, red granite, white limestone) in two sizes (diameters 8–16 mm and 4–8 mm) set in various patterns. The bidirectional reflection properties of the targets together with their temporal changes must be known in order to carry out radiometric and spectral evaluation and calibration.The bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRF) of the gravel have been measured several times in the test fields using portable field goniospectrometers belonging Finnish Geodetic Institute (FGI), and once using the European Goniometic Facility (EGO) of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra, Italy. Detailed BRFs have been obtained, showing features typical to particulate media, e.g. a small bowl shape, strong backscattering, and smooth wavelength dependence. Temporal range measurements over several years show that the black gabbro and red granite are fairly stable, while the grey granite has changed somewhat over the years and the white limestone has experienced dramatic darkening effects, requiring action to be taken.The measured BRF data have increased the usability of the test field considerably. The results are also useful in the development and validation of scattering models for particulate media. The site has proved to be a good test bench for goniospectrometric instruments, too.     

Evaluation of snow products over the Tibetan Plateau

Four satellite‐based snow products are evaluated over the Tibetan Plateau for the 2007–2010 snow seasons. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua snow cover daily L3 Global 500‐m grid products (MOD10A1 and MYD10A1), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) daily Northern Hemisphere snow cover product and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System Daily Snow Water Equivalent were validated against Thematic Mapper (TM) snow cover maps of Landsat‐5 and meteorological station snow depth observations. The overall accuracy of MOD10A1, MYD10A1 and IMS is higher than 91% against stations observations and than 79% against Landsat TM images. In general, the daily MODIS snow cover products show better performance than the multisensor IMS product. However, the IMS snow cover product is suitable for larger scale (~4km) analysis and applications, with the advantage over MODIS to allow for mitigation for cloud cover. The accuracy of the three products decreases with decreasing snow depth. Overestimation errors are most common over forested regions; the IMS and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System Snow Water Equivalent products also show poorer performance that the MODIS products over grassland. By identifying weaknesses in the satellite products, this study provides a focus for the improvement of snow products over the Tibetan plateau. The quantitative evaluation of the products proposed here can also be used to assess their relative weight in data assimilation, against other data sources, such as modelling and in situ measurement networks. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Migrating to tackle climate variability and change? Insights from coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh

There is an on-going debate about climate-induced migration but little empirical evidence. We examine how climate-induced migration has impacted vulnerability and adaptation of a coastal fishing community in Bangladesh. We used household surveys, interviews and focus group discussions to compare fishery dependent households who migrated from Kutubdia Island to mainland with those who stayed behind. Our results suggest that the resettled households are less exposed to floods, sea-level-rise and land erosion than those who stayed behind. They also have more livelihood assets, higher incomes and better access to water supply, health and educational services, technology and markets. In our case study migration has thus been a viable strategy to respond to climate variability and change.     

Warmer climate: less or more snow?

Changes in snow amount, as measured by the water equivalent of the snow pack (SWE), are studied using simulations of 21st century climate by 20 global climate models. Although the simulated warming makes snow season to shorten from its both ends in all of Eurasia and North America, SWE at the height of the winter generally increases in the coldest areas. Elsewhere, snow decreases throughout the winter. The average borderline between increasing and decreasing midwinter SWE coincides broadly with the ?20°C isotherm in late 20th century November–March mean temperature, although with some variability between different areas. On the colder side of this isotherm, an increase in total precipitation generally dominates over reduced fraction of solid precipitation and more efficient melting, and SWE therefore increases. On the warmer side, where the phase of winter precipitation and snowmelt are more sensitive to the simulated warming, the reverse happens. The strong temperature dependence of the simulated SWE changes suggests that projections of SWE change could be potentially improved by taking into account biases in simulated present-day winter temperatures. A probabilistic cross verification exercise supports this suggestion.     

Microearthquakes and seismotectonic analysis for a nuclear plant area in southeastern Finland

Microearthquake observations are used to study the local seismicity and seismotectonics in the Precambrian Rapakivi Granite, in the Loviisa area, SE Fi around the nuclear power plant in Loviisa, is limited to a radius of 100 km.

The results from a local microearthquake network in the Loviisa area showed that, during 6 years of measuring there were 29 micro- and ultra-microearth 0.1–1.2) in the area. The events identify active faults in the area.

The estimated value of the peak slip is an important parameter connecting microearthquakes to geodynamical processes. The peak slip gives an approximat and aseismic movement on a certain fault and thus an indication of ongoing tectonic processes. The movements on the active fault may continue for thous

Source parameters were computed for a simple circular source model, giving peak slips less than 0.25 mm, stress drop values less than 2 × 10⁵N/m² and source radii generally less than 50 m. The earthquakes occurred at depths of less than 5 km.     

Twenty-first century changes in snowfall climate in Northern Europe in ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Changes in snowfall in northern Europe (55–71°N, 5–35°E) are analysed from 12 regional model simulations of twenty-first century climate under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. As an ensemble mean, the models suggest a decrease in the winter total snowfall in nearly all of northern Europe. In the middle of the winter, however, snowfall generally increases in the coldest areas. The borderline between increasing and decreasing snowfall broadly coincides with the ?11 °C isotherm in baseline (1980–2010) monthly mean temperature, although with variation between models and grid boxes. High extremes of daily snowfall remain nearly unchanged, except for decreases in the mildest areas, where snowfall as a whole becomes much less common. A smaller fraction of the snow in the simulated late twenty-first century climate falls on severely cold days and a larger fraction on days with near-zero temperatures. Not only do days with low temperatures become less common, but they also typically have more positive anomalies of sea level pressure and less snowfall for the same temperature than in the present-day climate.     

Can CDM finance energy access in Least Developed Countries? Evidence from Tanzania

Policy documents and academic literature suggest that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) finance could complement traditional ‘energy access’ (EA) funding in developing countries, including the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Yet these propositions have not been empirically tested. This study helps fill this gap by examining constraints to CDM project passage through five stages of an idealized project development cycle (PDC) in Tanzania, and their implications for the ability of the CDM to contribute to financing energy access in LDCs. Twenty-five semi-structured interviews and documentary material were analysed using an analytical framework developed for systematic investigation of constraints. Institutional constraints such as the under-performance of Tanzania's Designated National Authority were the most often mentioned obstacles for project development. Yet non-institutional constraints such as limited energy sector mitigation potential, indigenous skill shortages, and low carbon market prices also hinder project development. Institutional constraints buttress, rather than supersede, pre-existing non-institutional constraints, and together they prevent energy projects from completing the PDC and accessing CDM finance. The number and severity of constraints suggest that the situation is unlikely to change rapidly, and that the CDM sustains and exacerbates existing global inequalities. Since traditional energy access funding is insufficient to address these inequalities, new funding and policy mechanisms are required.

Policy relevance

The CDM fails to fill the EA financing gap in Tanzania. This is also true for other LDCs where comparable project development challenges prevail. The CDM therefore appears to sustain uneven development patterns overlooking those most in need. Claims about its potential to enhance EA are misplaced, and the situation is unlikely to change rapidly. CDM and carbon market projects more widely will have limited ability to help financing EA in LDCs, even if the institutional setting within which they are implemented were reformed in the future. Yet traditional energy funding will be inadequate on its own. The debate over extending the CDM post-2017, when the second Kyoto Protocol commitment period expires, should be informed by honest appraisal of its merits and defects. Policy makers should revisit lessons provided by this article and wider research to help ensure that new EA mechanisms are not hampered by constraints and can benefit those most in need.