Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia

Natural Hazards - This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included...     

The interdecadal variation characteristics of arctic sea ice cover-Enso-East asian monsoon and their interrelationship at quasi-Four years time scale

l.Introducti0nTheclimateformationandvariabilityisnotonlythereflectionofatmosphericinternalbe-havi0rbutalsotheinnuencefromtheinteractionexistSintheclimatesystem.Becausetherela-tivecooIingandheatingsourcesofatmospherearelocatedinthePOlarandtropicalregionrespectively,itiseasytounderstandthattheArcticseaicecoverandSSTanomalieswhichim-pocttheatmosphericheatingtosomeextentcanexerttheirinfluenceontheremotCatmosphericcirculation-Inthisregard,thefocusrelatedtheinflueneeofArcticseaicecoverandtropica…     

Longitudinal variability of the equatorial counter electrojet during the solar cycle 24

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica - Ground and space-based geomagnetic data were used in the investigation of the longitudinal, seasonal and lunar phase dependence of the equatorial counter...     

Forecast of Tsunamis from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region

This paper describes an investigation of the subfault distribution along the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone for the implementation of a far-field tsunami forecast algorithm. Analyses of seismic data from 1900 to 2000 define the subduction zone, which in turn is divided into 222 subfaults based on the fault characteristics. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of mareograms at water-level stations along the subduction zone and at warning points in the North Pacific. When a tsunami occurs, an inverse algorithm determines the slip distribution from near-source water-level records and predicts the waveforms at the warning points using the pre-computed mareograms. A jackknife resampling scheme uses combinations of input water-level records to provide a series of waveform predictions for the computation of the confidence-interval bounds. The inverse algorithm is applied to hindcast two major tsunamis generated from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka source and the computed tsunami heights show good agreement with recorded water-level data.     

A perturbed parameter ensemble of HadGEM3-GC3.05 coupled model projections: part 1: selecting the parameter combinations

This is the first of two papers that describe the generation of a 25-member perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of high-resolution, global coupled simulations for the period 1900–2100, using CMIP5 historical and RCP8.5 emissions. Fifteen of these 25 coupled simulations now form a subset of the global projections provided for the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18). This first paper describes the selection of 25 variants (combinations of 47 parameters) using a set of cheap, coarser-resolution atmosphere-only simulations from a large sample of nearly 3000 variants. Retrospective 5-day weather forecasts run at climate resolution, and simulations of 2004–2009 with prescribed SST and sea ice are evaluated to filter out poor performance. We opted for a single design choice and sensitivity tests were done after the PPE was generated to demonstrate the effect of design choices on the filtering. Given our choice, only 38 of the parameter combinations were found to have acceptable performance at this stage. Idealised atmosphere-only simulations were then used to select the subset of 25 members that were as diverse as possible in terms of their CO₂ and aerosol forcing, and their response to warmer SSTs. Using our parallel set of atmosphere-only and coupled PPEs (the latter from paper 2), we show that local biases in the atmosphere-only experiments are generally informative about the biases in the coupled PPE. Biases in radiative fluxes and cloud amounts are strongly informative for most regions, whereas this is only true for a smaller fraction of the globe for precipitation and dynamical variables. Therefore, the cheap experiments are an affordable way to search for promising parameter combinations but have limitations.

     

South Asian monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr revealed by rock magnetic proxies

A rock magnetic investigation was carried out on a sedimentary core taken from the distal portion of the Bengal Fan in order to reconstruct the South Asian monsoon variability during the past 800 kyr. The 10.2 m long piston core MR0503-PC3, recovered at a water depth of 4400 m, consists of clay to silty clay with minor amounts of nannofossils. An age model for the MR0503-PC3 core is established by correlating a relative paleointensity record of the core [Suganuma Y., Yamazaki, T., Kanamatsu, T., Hokanishi, N., 2008. Relative paleointensity record during the last 800 kyr from the equatorial Indian Ocean: implication for relationship between inclination and intensity variations. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems. 9, Q02011. doi:10.1029/2007GC001723.] to the global paleointensity stack “Sint-800” [Guyodo, Y., Valet, J.P., 1999. Global changes in intensity of the Earth's magnetic field during the past 800 kyr. Nature. 399, 249–252.]. The age model is consistent with the published ages of tephra layers intercalated in the core, and shows continuous sedimentation during the past 800 kyr.Temporal variations in rock magnetic proxies for the magnetic concentration (ARM, IRM, and HIRM), the grain size (Mrs/Ms), and the composition (S_?0.3T and S_?0.1T) show that the amount of fine-grained magnetite increased during interglacial stages, and then gradually decreased toward the following glacial maxima. This indicates that the supply of fine-grained magnetite probably originated from areal expansion and/or increased pedogenic activity in the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers catchment. Increases during warmer periods suggest intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon during interglacial stages. During marine isotope stages (MIS) 15–11, enhancement of fine-grained magnetite and increased hematite and maghemite contributions are observed. These suggest a significant intensification of the South Asian summer monsoon during this period. Our record and other paleoclimatic reconstructions mainly from the low and mid-latitudes suggest that a major climatic event possibly occurred prior to the mid-Brunhes event (MBE), but the timing is not synchronous.     

Further characterization of carbonaceous materials in Hayabusa‐returned samples to understand their origin

Carbonaceous materials in the sample catcher of the Hayabusa spacecraft were assigned as category 3 particles. We investigated the category 3 particles with a suite of in situ microanalytical methods. Possible contaminants collected from the cleanrooms of the spacecraft assembly and extraterrestrial sample curation center (ESCuC) were also analyzed in the same manner as category 3 particles for comparison. Our data were integrated with those of the preliminary examination team for category 3 particles. Possible origins for the category 3 particles include contamination before and after the operation of the Hayabusa spacecraft.     

Evaluation and forecast of human impacts based on land use changes using multi-temporal satellite imagery and GIS: A case study on Zanjan,Iran

Land use and land cover changes due to human activities in a time sequence. Detection of such changes may help decision makers and planners to understand the factors in land use and land cover change in order to take effective and useful measures. Remote sensing and GIS techniques may be used as efficient tools to detect and assess land use change.     

Tsunamis from the Arica-Tocopilla source region and their effects on ports of Central Chile

The last great earthquake in northern Chile took place in 1877, and the ensuing tsunami affected not only that region but also Central Chile. For example, the Bay of Concepción, which is located 1,500 km south of the tsunami source, experienced an inundation height of around 3 m. Ports are important in the Chilean economy, due to the fact that a large percentage of Chilean exports (excluding copper) use ports located in Central Chile. With this in mind, the authors investigated the potential effect of an 1877-like tsunami on the main ports of Central Chile. To do this, the dispersive wave model Non-hydrostatic Evolution of Ocean WAVEs was used. In addition, the first tsunami forecast model for Talcahuano, inside the Bay of Concepción, was developed by means of numerical simulation of several events of different moment magnitudes. The results showed that most of the important ports (Valparaiso, San Antonio, San Vicente and Coronel) had inundation heights on the order of just 1 m, while inundation levels in Talcahuano reached up to 3.5 m. The forecast model for Talcahuano uses only earthquake magnitude, focal depth and tide level to determine tsunami inundation heights. In addition, the tsunami arrival time was computed to be 3 h, and the maximum tsunami amplitude takes place at 4 h and 45 min after the earthquake.