On 50th Anniversary of the Global Carbon Dioxide Record

The 50-year global CO₂ record led the way in establishing a scientific fact: modern civilization is changing important properties of the global atmosphere, oceans and biosphere. The evidence on which this scientific fact is based will be refined further, but the next challenge for scientists is broader. In addition to its traditional role in providing discovery, diagnosis, and prediction of the changes that are taking place on our planet, science has now also a role in helping society mitigate emissions by objectively quantifying them, and in helping adaptation by providing environmental forecasts on regional scales. Science is also expected to provide new options for society to tackle the transition to a new energy system, and to provide thorough environmental evaluation of all such options. This is what the meeting recognized as planetary responsibilities for scientists in the next 50 years.     

Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.     

紫硫镍矿交代镍黄铁矿的水热反应机理及动力学

本工作首次在实验室条件下对浅生区紫硫镍矿(Ni,Fe)3S4交代镍黄铁矿(Ni,Fe)9S8水热反应的机理及动力学进行了研究。起始反应矿物采用高纯自然镍黄铁矿,合成纯镍黄铁矿或合成镍黄铁矿-磁黄铁矿集合体。反应pH值采用0.2M醋酸-醋酸纳缓冲溶液控制在3～5的范围内。反应进程由X-射线衍射物相定量分析及扫描电镜观察进行跟踪。结果表明,当反应温度恒定在80℃时,交代20(4)%的镍黄铁矿需792h。相同条件下加入少量H2S可将反应速率提高一倍。当反应在125℃饱和蒸汽压水热环境下进行时,完全交代纯镍黄铁矿需约168h。此过程由于磁黄铁矿的存在而被催化,交代集合体中的镍黄铁矿仅需68h,进一步反应磁黄铁矿被交代成白铁矿。磁黄铁矿的催化作用可能源于溶解产生的微裂纹加速了流体的传质过程。当反应温度升高至145℃时,速率反而下降,不遵循Arrhenius经验规律。动力学分析得80℃速率常数介于5.8×10-8～3.0×10-7/s之间,125℃及145℃速率常数分别介于2.8×10-6～2.08×10-5/s及1×10-6～5.1×10-6/s之间,远高于同温度下固相扩散反应的速率常数,表明该反应在地质时标上为一快速反应。此外,用背散射电子显微技术对矿物表面形貌进行了分析,发现交代产物紫硫镍矿具有颗粒细小及存在微裂纹等特征,与自然界浅生矿床中的紫硫镍矿非常相似;电镜实验还表明该交代作用是一个典型的耦合溶解-再沉淀反应。其耦合机制的驱动力可能与反应界面处微空隙对流体饱和度的控制有关。     

A transboundary study of urban sprawl in the Pacific Coast region of North America: The benefits of multiple measurement methods

Sprawling urban development has emerged as a primary concern of policy makers, land preservationists and both urban and rural communities in developing regions across the globe. For the first time in history, more global residents lived in urban areas than not and the trend to urbanization is in full force at the start of the 21st century. An understanding of the nature and character of urban sprawl is complicated by a failure to satisfactorily define it and by the limitations of measurement techniques designed to characterize complex landscape forms. Like other landscape patterns, the quantification of urban sprawl is highly spatially and temporally scale-dependent. This paper summarizes a recent project to measure urban sprawl in the transboundary region of the Pacific Coast of North America. The metropolitan centers of Portland, OR, Seattle, WA and Vancouver, BC, span two nations, three state/provincial governments and dozens of cities. As a region, this was a global leader in population growth in the 1990s. The study relied on three separate methods – an impervious surface metric, a neighborhood density metric and a building permit metric – for quantifying urban growth. The results provide insight on the strengths and shortcomings of different methods with respect to the challenges posed by data availability and format. Taken together they demonstrate the richer understanding that combined methods may offer in characterizing phenomena as difficult to communicate and agree upon as urban sprawl.     

Profile response of a lacustrine multiple barred nearshore to a sequence of storm events

Profile change in a lacustrine multiple-barred nearshore was investigated over the ice-free season of 2001/2002 at Burley Beach on the southeastern shore of Lake Huron in order to identify the feedback mechanisms between the pre-existing morphology and the wave forcing and the consequence of those feedbacks to the behaviour of the nearshore environment. The characteristics of the offshore wave field were monitored using a Falmouth Scientific combined 3D-ACM wave recorder and pressure transducer. Supplemental wave data were downloaded from a 3-m discus buoy operated by the National Data Buoy Center, 75 km to the NW of the study site. The three nearshore bars were in a quasi-equilibrium state through a large part of the ice-free season, with dramatic changes occurring during relatively moderate storm events that followed much larger storms in late October. A comparison of the incident wave field with changes in the nearshore profile through canonical correlation analysis indicates that the morphology responds to the distribution of the significant, root-mean-square (rms) and average wave heights between surveys. The threshold between bar decay and onshore bar migration and growth is associated with the onset of breaking of the rms wave at the bar crest (H_rms h_cr⁻¹ ≈0.3–0.4). The threshold between onshore and offshore migration is associated with the onset of breaking of the average wave at the bar crest (H_avg h_cr⁻¹ ≈0.3–0.4), coincident with complete dissipation of the significant wave over the lakeward slope of the bar (H_s h_cr⁻¹ >0.6). Inshore wave data collected during an instrumented study at the same site revealed that the middle and inner bars remained at the threshold of onshore and offshore migration over a wide range of offshore significant wave heights (0.8 to 2.4 m) prior to the October storms. This self-organised equilibrium is a result of changes to the incident wave distribution through breaking on the outer bar. It is concluded that the prediction of bar response requires an understanding of the feedback between the bar and the local wave distribution in addition to an understanding of the feedback associated with the profile as a whole.     

Application of the Maslov Seismogram Method in Three Dimensions

Asymptotic methods provide an efficient way to compute seismograms in heterogeneous media. However, zeroth-order ray theory, the simplest of the asymptotic methods, often fails because of the presence of caustics. Maslov theory is an extension of zeroth-order ray theory, which gives a uniformly valid expression of the wavefield everywhere, including the caustics. This result is given in terms of an integral of ray data over one or two ray parameters. It is shown in this paper how geometrical arrivals are constructed in the one and two-parameter Maslov integrals.In practice Maslov seismograms have been computed using only one ray parameter. However, in three-dimensional media two parameters are needed to uniquely define a ray. In this paper we present an efficient algorithm to compute two-parameter Maslov integrals. The Maslov integral is evaluated by computing the frequency-to-time Fourier transform prior to integration over the ray parameters. The wavefield is then discretized by smoothing with a boxcar function. The resulting expression, which only requires the results of ordinary kinematic and dynamic ray tracing, cen be computed efficiently and robustly. A numerical example is given that illustrates the use of this algorithm.     

Crop water relationships and thermal adaptation of kathika beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and green grams (Vigna radiata L. Wilczek) with special reference to temporal patterns of potential growth in the drylands of SE-Kenya

High soil temperatures influence seedling emergence as well as the performance of plant organs and yields. Temperatures of above 40°C were recorded in the topsoil of the Ferralsols of the semi-arid areas of SE-Kenya during the rainy season. Experiments were conducted in the climatological laboratory of the University of Trier, Germany, on two legumes (green grams and common beans var. kathika), grown by smallholder farmers in the study area under varying soil temperature conditions. The main objective was to examine the effect of soil temperature on various parameters: seedling emergence, crop water requirements, leaf area index and phenology of the two legumes. The simulated climatological laboratory conditions were similar to those at Kiboko, SE-Kenya. This study confirmed that under high soil temperature conditions, green grams are well adapted to semi-arid and hot tropical lowlands as well as lower midlands due to low water requirements, high seedling emergence rates and good yield performance. However, kathika beans were very susceptible to the simulated extreme climatic environment. By means of crop simulation modelling, a temporal differentiation for potential growth of green grams is presented for the long and short rains according to different rainfall conditions (ENSO, antiENSO, normal) over a period of 31 years.     

Geotechnical engineering practice for collapsible soils

Conditions in arid and semi-arid climates favor the formation of the most problematic collapsible soils. The mechanisms that account for almost all naturally occurring collapsible soil deposits are debris flows, rapid alluvial depositions, and wind-blown deposits (loess). Collapsible soils are moisture sensitive in that increase in moisture content is the primary triggering mechanism for the volume reduction of these soils. One result of urbanization in arid regions is an increase in soil moisture content. Therefore, the impact of development-induced changes in surface and groundwater regimes on the engineering performance of moisture sensitive arid soils, including collapsible soils, becomes a critical issue for continued sustainable population expansion into arid regions.In practicing collapsible soils engineering, geotechnical engineers are faced with (1) identification and characterization of collapsible soil sites, (2) estimation of the extent and degree of wetting, (3) estimation of collapse strains and collapse settlements, and (4) selection of design/mitigation alternatives. Estimation of the extent and degree of wetting is the most difficult of these tasks, followed by selection of the best mitigation alternative.