Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar

This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data (including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity ZDR) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar (2018). Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong, China after its final landfall. Two experiments are performed, one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and ZDR. Assimilation of ZDR together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields, and improves the intensity, shape and position of rainbands. Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall ≥250 mm is significantly improved. Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance. The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, which deserves more researches in the future.     

花岗岩风化料弃土快速堆填过程中不排水抗剪强度评估

沿海沿江城市地下开挖产生的工程渣土含泥量大、含水率高且较松散,主要运往渣土场进行堆填处置。由于产量巨大而处置场地有限,许多渣土场在运营过程中存在堆填速度快、缺乏排水设施、超高超库容堆填等问题,容易引发堆填体失稳事故。目前对于非饱和工程渣土堆体在快速堆填过程中的失稳机制认识尚不清晰,尤其是对这一过程中的高饱和度工程渣土强度增长规律缺乏足够的认识。以深圳红坳渣土场填料——花岗岩风化料(CDG)填土为研究对象,对不同初始饱和度土样进行三轴不排水不排气等向压缩和剪切试验,结果表明:非饱和CDG填土不排水抗剪强度随围压增大呈非线性增长,增长速率与试样初始饱和度密切相关;当土样压缩后的饱和度超过0.7,不排水强度随围压的增长速率显著降低。基于有效固结应力法的原理,结合Hilf孔压公式和修正剑桥模型,提出了一种工程渣土不排水抗剪强度估算方法,并通过与试验结果对比验证了该方法对初始饱和度高于0.6的CDG填土的适用性。利用该方法确定的不排水强度cu与正应力σn的关系可应用于高饱和度工程渣土快速堆填中的稳定性分析。     

西秦岭中—晚三叠世构造属性:来自将其那梁侵入杂岩体的年代学及地球化学证据

西秦岭造山带印支早期的构造环境仍存在较多争论,选择西秦岭将其那梁杂岩体进行详细的年代学、岩石学及地球化学分析,以期对该科学问题进行深入探讨。将其那梁杂岩体由石英闪长岩和花岗斑岩组成,石英闪长岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄为(240.0±1.5) Ma,形成时代为中三叠世,属于早印支期。将其那梁杂岩体具有富钾(K₂O=3.09%~3.54%)、富碱(K₂O+Na₂O=6.44%~7.20%)和过铝质(A/CNK=1.05~1.56)特征,Mg^#值(54~67)较高,属于过铝质高钾钙碱性岩类。将其那梁杂岩体石英闪长岩和花岗斑岩具有相似的微量元素及稀土元素组成,轻重稀土元素分馏明显(LREE/HREE=8.19~14.63),呈右倾特征,显示无或弱负Eu异常(δEu=0.87~1.03),具有亏损Nb、Ta、Zr等高场强元素和富集Ba、Rb、Sr等大离子亲石元素的地球化学特征。岩石地球化学特征指示,将其那梁杂岩体主要源于下地壳高钾变基性岩的部分熔融,且有幔源物质参与其中。结合区域地质背景,认为将其那梁杂岩体形成于火山弧构造环境,可能与中—晚三叠世阿尼玛卿—勉略洋向北俯冲有关,反映了中—晚三叠世西秦岭地区具有活动大陆边缘的属性。     

甘肃“马衔山玉”的宝石学特征研究

“马衔山玉”是近几年甘肃玉石市场上时常出现的一种玉石品种,由于数量少且价格昂贵。采用常规宝石学仪器测试、偏光显微镜薄片观察、红外光谱仪等测试方法进行测试,结果表明,“马衔山玉”的主要组成矿物为透闪石,次要矿物主要为透辉石。马衔山软玉颜色多为青绿、黄绿色且籽料常见灰白色伴有“水草花”杂质的石皮。马衔山软玉透闪石颗粒细小,主要呈纤维交织结构,质地较新疆软玉稍差,油润度较青海、俄罗斯软玉强。     

CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

花垣县李梅地区早寒武世清虚洞期碳酸盐岩中的风暴沉积

扬子地台东南缘的花垣李梅地区,早寒武世晚期清虚洞组钙质风暴岩分布广泛,表现为层数众多,剖面类型丰富,识别标志清楚,颇具特色。风暴作用强度和侵蚀力按地层层序自下而上有由弱到强的规律性变化,与本区清虚洞期陆棚浅滩化演变过程相对应。早寒武世晚期的风暴事件与本区岩相、岩性的分布,均有密切联系。     

冬半年500hpa月平均格点资料与内蒙古夏季雨量的关系

本文用模糊聚类分析把全区夏季降水分成四个区域，分别计算出每区的平均降水距平百分率和覆盖率。并以500hpa相关区域高度和降水自身周期作因子，用逐步回归双重分析方法建立起8个预报方程，其历史拟合率较高且试用效果较好。