基于PSR-WSVM模型的边坡位移预测

为建立高精度的边坡位移预测模型，采用相空间重构（PSR）将边坡位移时间序列数据转换为多维数据，同时构造小波核函数改进的支持向量机模型，建立PSR-WSVM模型并应用于边坡位移预测。将PSR-WSVM模型预测结果与传统支持向量机（SVM）模型、小波支持向量机（WSVM）模型和基于相空间重构的支持向量机（PSR-SVM）模型预测结果进行对比，通过平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对误差百分比（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）3个精度评价指标验证PSR-WSVM模型的可行性。工程实例结果表明，PSR-WSVM模型预测结果的3个精度评价指标都优于另外3种模型，边坡位移预测的精度明显提升。     

一次西南低涡过程的地面场中尺度分析

本文运用带通滤波分析方法,对四川省1981年7月由西南低涡等天气系统引起的大暴雨过程作了地面气象要素场的中尺度诊断分析。结果表明,带通滤波后的场具有明显的中尺度特征,其中一些物理量场的适当配置与6小时后的暴雨中心有较好的对应关系。说明了此带通滤波方法在实际业务预报中具有一定的使用价值。     

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕     

γ射线暴的研究进展（Ⅳ：特强γ射线暴和软γ重复暴

最近CGRO上的仪器观测到了两个迄今为止发现的最强的λ暴GB930131和GB940217,其光子最高能量均达GeV量级;GB930131的峰值计数率达2×10~6个光子s~(-1);而GB940217的持续时间竟长达90min。另外沉寂了多年的软重复暴源SGR1900 14和SGR1806-20的再次爆发也由BATSE发现。一系列的观测还发现这些软重复暴均与X射线源对应且与超新星遗迹成协。文中对特强暴和软重暴(SGR)的性质及研究进展作了较为详细的评述。     

Theory of stability, and regulation and control of ecological system in oasis

Starting with analysis on the evolving course of oasis and the characteristics and evolution of transitional zone between oasis and desert, in consideration of ecological elements including plant stomata resistance, area covered by vegetation, and physical elements including albedo of vegetation and bare soil, atmosphere temperature, and humidity, under the condition of the balance among net radiation flux, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux, the following are calculated: temperatures of vegetation and bare soil in different conditions, as well as the evapotranspiration rate of ecosystem. Analysis on evapotranspiration rate indicates that it depends on both the climate of environment and the physiological and ecological conditions of plants. On certain conditions, the evapotranspiration rate of transitional zone between oasis and desert (i.e. area covered by vegetation less than 20%), in some parameter domains, appears in bifurcation or multiequilibrium state. Meanwhile, in such area, ecosystem is extremely unstable. Any minor change to the balance will cause either increase or reduction of area covered by vegetation in ecosystem, on the basis of discussion on the emergency of these phenomena. This paper is attempting to propose an effective way of destruction and rebuilt ecosystem in transitional zone. The way is to control the evaporation of plant through selecting anti-drought country plant with big stomata resistance, and modify the roughness of the underlying surface in ecosystem by establishing rational interspace structure of plant community, so as to put the degenerative ecosystem into the natural succession track. This primary theory is being verified through observation and analysis on historical data.     

Timing of the Nihewan formation and faunas

Magnetostratigraphic dating of the fluvio-lacustrine sequence in the Nihewan Basin, North China, has permitted the precise timing of the basin infilling and associated Nihewan mammalian faunas. The combined evidence of new paleomagnetic findings from the Hongya and Huabaogou sections of the eastern Nihewan Basin and previously published magnetochronological data suggests that the Nihewan Formation records the tectono-sedimentary processes of the Plio-Pleistocene Nihewan Basin and that the Nihewan faunas can be placed between the Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic reversal and the onset of the Olduvai subchron (0.78-1.95 Ma). The onset and termination of the basin deposition occurred just prior to the Gauss-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal and during the period from the last interglaciation to the late last glaciation, respectively, suggesting that the Nihewan Formation is of Late Pliocene to late Pleistocene age. The Nihewan faunas, comprising a series of mammalian faunas (such as Maliang, Donggutuo, Xiaochangliang, Banshan, Majuangou, Huabaogou, Xiashagou, Danangou and Dongyaozitou), are suggested to span a time range of about 0.8-2.0 Ma. The combination of our new and previously published magnetostratigraphy has significantly refined the chronology of the terrestrial Nihewan Formation and faunas.     

鱼卡煤田大煤沟组高分辨率层序地层特征及聚煤规律

利用高分辨率层序地层学理论和技术方法,综合地震、测井、岩芯和煤质资料对柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡煤田中下侏罗统大煤沟组地层河湖三角洲沉积体系进行高分辨率层序地层学分析,从中识别出短期、中期、长期3个级别的基准面旋回层序,划分出向上"变深"非对称型、向上"变浅"非对称型及对称型3种短期基准面旋回基本结构类型。依据等时地层对比法则进行不同级次基准面旋回层序的联井对比,建立了大煤沟组的等时地层格架,在等时地层格架内进行了煤层对比,并在等时地层格架内分析了聚煤规律。