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1.
Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NOx), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NOx have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions. 相似文献
2.
In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming
at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis
of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,
‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE
spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of
their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the
direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion
of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s−1, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated
as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the
onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8
and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the
relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method
is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude
of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation
thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency. 相似文献
3.
Based on the δ13C and δ18O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO3 content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages
of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate
isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental
changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ18O, δ13C and CaCO3 appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ18O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ13C, pollen and CaCO3 analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred
at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P.,
10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature
of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P.
−5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid
area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism
of palaeoclimatic changes. 相似文献
4.
北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于50年代,60~70年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后,油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造6个,含油面积超过40km2,石油地质储量约4亿t,已开发油田2个,揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕 相似文献
5.
Spencer John Buie Marc Young Leslie Guo Yanping Stern Alan 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2003,92(1-4):483-491
Development of the New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper Belt is now fully funded by NASA (Stern and Spencer, this volume). If all goes well, New Horizons will be launched in January 2006, followed by a Jupiter gravity assist in 2007, with Pluto arrival expected in either 2015 or 2016, depending on the launch vehicle chosen. A backup launch date of early 2007, without a Jupiter flyby, would give a Pluto arrival in 2019 or 2020. In either case, a flyby of at least one Kuiper Belt object (KBO) is planned following the Pluto encounter, sometime before the spacecraft reaches a heliocentric distance of 50 AU, in 2021 or 2023 for the 2006 launch, and 2027 or 2029 for the 2007 launch. However, none of the almost 1000 currently-known KBOs will pass close enough to the spacecraft trajectory to be targeted by New Horizons, so the KBO flyby depends on finding a suitable target among the estimated 500,000 KBOs larger than 40 km in diameter. This paper discusses the issues involved in finding one or more KBO targets for New Horizons. The New Horizons team plans its own searches for mission KBOs but will welcome other U.S, or international team who wish to become involved in exchange for mission participation at the KBO. 相似文献
6.
Hong-Qi Zhang Xing-Ming Bao Yin Zhang Ji-Hong Liu Shu-Dong Bao Yuan-Yong Deng Wei Li Jie Chen Jin-Ping Dun Jiang-Tao Su Juan Guo Xiao-Fan Wang Ke-Liang Hu Gang-Hua Lin Dong-Guang WangNational Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2003,3(6):491-494
We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle. 相似文献
7.
本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果 相似文献
8.
从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说,这是一种新的学术思想。 相似文献
9.
Corrosion behavior of steel in the juncture area of sea clay and sand was studied. The results show that galvanic corrosion occurred between steel samples buried in sea clay and sand, and that the polarity of the galvanic cell reversed after some testing later. The cause of reversing of polarity is discussed. 相似文献
10.