1998～2000年狮子座流星雨的预报和观测

“1998年狮子座流星雨可能是暴雨，最佳观测地在东亚”的预报，客观上加速了中国对流星雨的现代研究。几年来，对狮子座流星雨的观测和研究，是在全国狮子座流星雨联测小组的组织和领导下发展起来的。这包括使用目视方法、照相方法和无线电方法的观测，以及组织广大天文爱好者在全国范围内的观测。我们的确也观测到了很多重要的现象，如流星雨的纤维结构、尺度分布和质量密度分布的变化等等。我们发展了数据处理方法，将处理其它天文观测数据的“时间窗”方法移植到了流星雨的数据处理中。这一方法如今在流星雨研究中已经在世界上普遍使用了。我们还提出了流星雨的质量流参量ZHMR，它对于今后流星雨的观测比较和预报可能更加有用。在雷达观测方面，我们观测到了1998年所期待的流星雨强度主峰。在此主峰过了大约18h之后，又观测到了地球电离层的反常爆发。从1998年连续两天狮子座流星雨不同的表现，以及从全国不同地区的观测得到的流星质量分布系数的差异，我们提出了大、小2种不同粒子的混合流模型，很好地解释了观测到的现象。从天体力学的基本公式出发，我们发现流星群轨道升交点和其母彗星轨道升交点之差，不仅与当时的抛射速度，而且与彗星抛出这些尘埃粒子时在轨道上的位置有关。对于1998年的观测，最可能的是这些粒子是彗星在1933年回归的时候、在距离太阳1．44A．U．距离的时候抛射出来的。按照传统的统计图分析方法，我们还对1999—2001年的狮子座流星雨强度进行了预报。事实证明，我们对1999和2000年的预报的准确性还是很高的。此外，我们还在狮子座流星雨的照相观测、轨道计算以及其它方面做了一些工作，本文仪仅是对我们所做的一些主要工作进行了一个小结。     

1998～2000年狮子座流星雨的预报和观测

"1998年狮子座流星雨可能是暴雨,最佳观测地在东亚"的预报,客观上加速了中国对流星雨的现代研究。几年来,对狮子座流星雨的观测和研究,是在全国狮子座流星雨联测小组的组织和领导下发展起来的。这包括使用目视方法、照相方法和无线电方法的观测,以及组织广大天文爱好者在全国范围内的观测。我们的确也观测到了很多重要的现象,如流星雨的纤维结构、尺度分布和质量密度分布的变化等等。我们发展了数据处理方法,将处理其它天文观测数据的"时间窗"方法移植到了流星雨的数据处理中。这一方法如今在流星雨研究中已经在世界上普遍使用了。我们还提出了流星雨的质量流参量ZHMR,它对于今后流星雨的观测比较和预报可能更加有用。在雷达观测方面,我们观测到了1998年所期待的流星雨强度主峰。在此主峰过了大约18h之后,又观测到了地球电离层的反常爆发。从1998年连续两天狮子座流星雨不同的表现,以及从全国不同地区的观测得到的流星质量分布系数的差异,我们提出了大、小2种不同粒子的混合流模型,很好地解释了观测到的现象。从天体力学的基本公式出发,我们发现流星群轨道升交点和其母彗星轨道升交点之差,不仅与当时的抛射速度,而且与彗星抛出这些尘埃粒子时在轨道上的位置有关。对于1998年的观测,最可能的是这些粒子是     

近20年来狮子座流星雨预报进展

对近20年来狮子座流星雨的预报工作，进行了系统的阐述和分析。1998年Tempel-Tuttle彗星的回归，再度带来了狮子座流星雨的观测热，也大大促进了对狮子座流星雨预报工作的研究与验证。有的研究在时间预报准确度方面已显示出其模型的优越性，有的在流星雨的强度方面显示出一定的准确度。指出了两大类不同的方法实际上是在三维空间强调了不同的方面。将不同方法的优势结合起来，可能会使流星雨的预报更加成熟。     

举办2001年狮子座流星雨摄影赛通知

鉴于2001年11月19日前后,在中国东部、中部,有可能观测到每小时标准天顶计数峰值达到一万颗以上流星的狮子座流星暴雨。为促进这一可能的、罕见的流星雨观测和保留珍贵的流星雨资料,我们决定举办《2001狮子座流星雨摄影赛》。我们在全国范围内(包括港、澳、台)征集狮子座流星雨的观测照片。来稿要求为: 1.提供拍摄有狮子座流星的5对以上     

1998—1999年国际狮子座流星雨观测研究评述

1998－1999年的狮子座流星雨观测研究取得了十分丰富的成果，概要介绍了在此期间目视观测，雷达观测，航空观测，气球观测，卫星安全检测星撞击月球和月球钠尾观测方面取得的成果和进展。     

偶见天龙座流星雨

我曾经作多次流星雨的观测,可一直没见过令人兴奋的场面。１９６５年我就曾观测过狮子座流星雨,可就只见到几颗流星。去年的狮子座流星雨,我们在严寒难耐的冬夜坚守观测了４个小时,也只见到１７颗流星。１９９８年６月２７日夜晚,我们偶然和天龙座流星雨相遇,一颗接...     

狮子座流星暴雨真的来了

根据国际流星组织和狮子座流星雨研究中心的初步统计显示,11月18日在中东和欧洲地区都观测到狮子座流星雨的大规模爆发,极大就发生在预测地球通过坦普尔塔特尔彗星轨道面时的格林尼治时间18日凌晨2点钟。狮子座流星暴雨真的来了。欧洲和中东的观测　天文学家和天文爱好者?..     

从中国目视资料分析1998年狮子座流星雨

本文分析了１９９８ 年狮子座流星雨的一部分中国目视资料。资料启示：１９９８ 年狮子座流星雨来自两股不同组成的流星体颗粒的不均匀混合流。按照这种观点进行了以这些目视资料为基础的计算,从而解释了目视观测与雷达观测所得结果之间的矛盾。     

冬夜迎狮王——北京天文同好会观测狮子座流星雨纪实

１９９８年狮子座流星雨期间,北京天文同好会有组织地进行了观测,取得了有价值的数据,并拍摄了大量的摄影作品。１１月２２日国际流星组织目视观测委员会主席给同好会发来贺信,感谢这来自中国的数据记录。同好会取得的成绩不断地得到专家和社会的肯定。     

流星雨爆发的反响

2001年11月19日凌晨,曾经让爱好者们悲观失望的狮子座流星雨,出色地表现了一回。其实,几年来有关狮子座流星雨的预报和观测过程就是一个生动的科学探索过程。天文学家在不懈地探索总结流星雨的预报理论,今年又坚定地对狮子座流星雨的爆发作出判断,我们《天文爱好者》也及时作了报导;而广大爱好者中,所有坚持者都饱尝了成功的欢乐。 喜悦的心情总是希望能和大家分享。最近,观测这次流星雨的总结报告、摄影作品、心得体会等等,像雪片一样纷纷飞到我们编辑部。但是由于版面限制,我们只能选择其中的一小部分发表在这里(而且还不得不作了大量的删节)。我们还用“流星雨爆发的反响”为题,写了一篇摘编报导。挂一漏万,不妥之处,只能请求您的谅解了。至于流星雨观测数据,敬请及时上报有关组织。     

Leonids 2006 observations of the tail of trails: Where is the comet fluff?

In 2006, Earth encountered a trail of dust left by Comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle two revolutions ago, in A.D. 1932. The resulting Leonid shower outburst was observed by low light level cameras from locations in Spain. The outburst peaked on 2006 Nov. 19d 04h39m ± 3m UT (predicted: 19d 04h50m ± 15m UT), with a FWHM of 43 ± 10 min (predicted: 38 min), at a peak rate of ZHR=80±10/h (predicted: 50-200 per hour). A low level background of older and brighter Filament Leonids (χ∼2.1) was also present, which dominated rates for Leonids brighter than magnitude +4. The 1932-dust outburst was detected among Leonids of +0 magnitude and brighter. These outburst Leonids were much brighter than expected, with a magnitude distribution index χ=2.60±0.15 (predicted: χ=3.47 and up). Trajectories and orbits of 24 meteors were calculated, most of which are part of the Filament component. Those that were identified as 1932-dust grains penetrated just as deep as Leonids in past encounters. We conclude that larger meteoroids than expected were present in the tail of the 1932-dust trail and meteoroids did not end up there because of low density. We also find that the radiant position of meteors in the Filament component scatter in a circle with radius 0.39°, which is wider than in 1998, when the diameter was 0.09°. This supports the hypothesis that the Filament component consists of meteoroids in mean-motion resonances.     

VIDEO AND PHOTOGRAPHIC SPECTROSCOPY OF 1998 AND 2001 LEONID PERSISTENT TRAINS FROM 300 TO 930 nm

Spectra of persistent meteor trains were observed at wavelength between 300 and 930 nm. Two obtained train spectra during the 1998 and 2001 Leonid meteor showers are reported here. During the 1998 Leonids, one train was detected by a photographic camera with a spectrograph covering 370–640 nm region. On the other hand, during the 2001 Leonids, video observations were carried out using image intensified cameras in ultraviolet (UV), visible and near infrared (near-IR) wavelengths. Temperatures in persistent trains have been measured by atmospheric O₂ A(0,1) band at the wavelength near 864.5 nm. From a video spectrum obtained just 7 s after parent fireball’s flare, a rotational temperature of 250 K at altitude of 88.0±0.5 km was estimated. We can say that the cooling time scale of train strongly depends on the initial mass of its fireball at least for Leonids. Based on cooling constant calculated from our results, we estimated a temperature of ∼ ∼130 K as a final exothermic temperature at early stage of persistent trains.     

Iron,calcium, and potassium atom densities in the trails of Leonids and other meteors: Strong evidence for differential ablation

Abstract— We report on studies of the Fe, Ca, and K atom densities in the trails of meteors. The measurements of the densities were taken simultaneously and in a common volume by three ground-based lidars. We report and analyze the data obtained during two nights of Leonid showers (1996 and 1998 November 16/17) and of one night five days after the 1998 Leonids. The lidar-observed trails of Leonids differ from those of other meteor showers in both their mean altitude and in mean metal composition. The Leonid trails show a highly depressed Ca/Fe abundance ratio in comparison to CI meteoritic composition. Our observations are interpreted with the help of a numerical model that describes the ablation processes occurring during the high-speed entry of meteoroids into the Earth's atmosphere. We conclude that for the lidar-observed meteoroids, the ablation process occurs differentially for the three elements. This leads to a mixture of metals in the meteor trails, the composition of which is strongly altitude dependent and at any one altitude deviates significantly from a CI meteoritic composition. The model predicts differing altitudes and durations of trail observations for different showers, allowing us to tentatively assign the origin to the observed trails.     

Meteoric Activities of the Last Millennium

We have analyzed the meteor records in the chronicles of the east Asian countries, especially the Korean records. Our results show that the seasonal variation of sporadic meteors has persisted at least for the last two millennia. We also observed the prominent showers such as the Perseids and the Leonids, which are formed by Halley-type comets. We obtained the regression rate of nodal points for the Leonids to be approximately 1.52± 0.04 days per century.     

Matching cometary ejection processes to the Leonids 1998–2001 using a hybrid numerical model

A new scheme for simulating meteor showers is introduced, based on a hybridization of current numerical modelling techniques. It involves an iterative method that generates particles which hit a real-scale Earth, removing the spatial and temporal blurring common to other modelling techniques. The scheme is applied to the activity profile of the Leonids 2001 using three different models of meteoroid ejection velocity and then applied to the Leonids 1998–2000 using the most favourable models. It is shown that to reproduce the observed meteor activity profiles there must be a strong concentration of ejection around perihelion. The modelling also implies that meteoroid density must be towards the higher end of the currently acceptable range, although the derived limits are not independent of the ejection velocity model. We also find that the extreme narrowness of Leonid activity peaks is not easily reproduced with outgassing over the entire day side of the comet but it is fitted well by outgassing in a restricted direction as one would expect from an outgassing jet. In addition, we show that double-peaked features, corresponding to a semihollow meteoroid streamlet, can arise in a meteor shower activity profile from outgassing during a single perihelion passage of the parent comet. It is suggested that this process caused the double-peaked feature in the first maxima of the 2001 Leonids.     

Mixed Particle Stream Model Of The Main Peak Of 1998 Leonids

On the basis of the radar observational data of the Leonids obtained in China in November of 1998, we found that the characteristics of the meteor population index γ during the main peak could not be explained well with a one-component magnitude distribution. Moreover, according the visual observational data obtained in China and other districts of Asia, γ also presents the property of non-uniformity. In this paper, we set forth a mathematical model of mixed particle streams. From this, the observed phenomenon of rarity of visual meteors and abundance of radar meteors during the main peak is interpreted. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

流星暴的航天定义

定义ZHR^*以每小时穿过1000平方公里天顶截面的，能在铝质表面打出直径不小于1厘米的弹坑的流星体数，作为流星群对航天安全威胁强度的定量标志，给出了从ZHR到ZHR^*的换算公式．用ZHR^*取代ZHR来评价20世纪90年代以来的一些强流星雨，发现1998年的贾可比尼(天龙座)流星雨对航天安全来说，是比公认的1999、2001、2002年3次狮子座流星暴强数倍的更强流星暴．     

Johnson Space Center's Leonids optical observations

Abstract— The 1998 Leonid meteor shower was videotaped by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) personnel, Jim Pawlowski and Jerry Winkler, at Houston, Texas, and Anna Scott at Cloudcroft, New Mexico. The videotapes were screened and the Leonid meteors in the videotapes were analyzed. The outcome of this effort was tables of counts per hour over the viewing period and a comparison to the Leonids meteors mass distribution model (Matney, 1998, unpubl. data) used for risk assessment calculations associated with space shuttle missions. The comparison exhibited a difference between the observed data and the model. Perhaps this difference can be resolved when observations from other parts of the Earth are assimilated with JSC observations.     

Photographic Observations of the 1996 Leonid Fireballs in Japan

Several Leonid fireballs were successfully photographed by the Japanese Fireball Network and by other observers in Japan on 16 November, 1996. A totals of seven of these were simultaneously observed from two or more stations, from which the orbital and physical data were deduced. The radiant of these fireballs were very small, only 0.1°, similar to that of the 1991 Perseids. The 1996 Leonids showed a lower magnitude distribution index similar to those obtained in the 1961 and 1965 Leonids. All of these showers occurred before perihelion passage of the parent comet. We conclude that we have already encountered the elongated front part of the dust trail of the Leonid parent comet, where the trail is probably composed of larger dust particles. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.