近地小行星发现数目与发现场景的统计分析

近地小行星是一类可能对地球安全造成潜在威胁的太阳系小天体, 目前绝大部分的近地小行星是由地基望远镜发现的, 且数目仍在不断增加. 为了对我国未来开展近地小行星发现监测提供参考和借鉴, 利用国际小行星中心公开的数据库对所有近地小行星首次发现时刻的观测资料开展了多维度统计分析. 发现望远镜探测能力的限制会对近地小行星的发现造成选择效应, 导致不同轨道类型近地小行星发现的相对比例逐年变化且与直径有关. 另外, 结合数值模拟获得的轨道数据, 对近地小行星首次发现时的观测场景进行了还原, 获得了发现时刻近地小行星位置在不同天球坐标系的分布, 分析了其分布特征与季节、测站纬度和小行星直径的依赖关系. 最后, 通过分析数据定量考察了太阳、月球和银道面对近地小行星发现的影响, 发现地基望远镜一般难以发现来自太阳方向90$^\circ$范围内直径140m以下的近地小行星, 并且随着小行星直径的减小该限制范围也将变大; 月光污染对近地小行星发现的影响也非常显著, 望月前后几天的观测限制可导致约29%的目标无法被发现, 而且分析表明农历上半月发现的目标一般比下半月发现的更难以被跟踪观测; 银道面特别是银心方向会对近地小行星发现产生影响, 使得黄道面附近存在与季节相关的观测``盲区''.     

如何应对近地小行星撞地的威胁

2012年1月27日,一颗公共汽车大小的小行星与地球擦肩而过,距离地球最近时只有6万千米。这颗名为“2012BX34”的小行星位列20颗最接近地球的小行星之首。尽管它没有对地球造成威胁。但再次向地球人敲响了警钟,要加速研究如何防止近地小行星撞击地球的方法和技术了,因为小行星撞击地球是世界上四大突发巨大灾难之一,早晚有一天会撞击地球。     

地月DRO星载光学测量近地小行星轨道确定

针对地基光学监测系统对近地小行星在近太阳方向的监测存在盲区的问题,提出了远距离逆行轨道(Distant Retrograde Orbit,DRO)天基光学平台对近地小行星进行跟踪定轨的方法.通过可视性分析,筛选仿真观测数据,利用美国宇航局喷气推进实验室(Jet Propulsion Laboratory,JPL)公布的小行星初始轨道信息对不同轨道类型的目标天体进行轨道确定,将计算结果与参考轨道对比分析.仿真结果表明:在测量精度2角秒,定轨弧长3年的情况下,DRO平台对仿真算例中所选择的近地小行星的定轨精度可以达到几十公里量级,其中Atira型轨道精度可达10公里以内.由此可见,DRO天基平台对近地小行星具有较好的监测能力,定轨精度能实现对目标小行星的精确跟踪,并对其进行轨道预报.     

不同测站近地小行星地基观测效能评估研究

目标的完备性搜索是开展近地小行星预警和防御的前提. 为量化评价近地小行星观测效能, 提高监测设备使用效率, 提出一种综合望远镜参数和测站天文条件的观测效能评估方法. 以观测目标信噪比作为检测指标, 设定检测条件形成目标检测方法, 定义评价指标用于评估近地小行星观测效能. 再基于近地小行星轨道数据和尺度分布模型, 建立近地小行星轨道数据模拟样本库. 最后选取中国科学院紫金山天文台盱眙观测站和中国科学院国家天文台冷湖观测台址, 仿真分析近地天体望远镜对直径0.01--30km近地小行星的观测效能, 结果表明: 不考虑两观测站年有效观测时间差异, 近地天体望远镜在冷湖观测全尺寸模拟样本的效能比在盱眙提高了5.21倍, 其中对1km以上直径目标的观测效能相当, 对1km以下直径目标的观测效能差异开始显现, 对0.1km以下直径目标冷湖优势更显著.     

小行星(469219) Kamo`oalewa轨道的确定与误差分析

作为一颗与地球共轨道的小行星,(469219)Kamo'oalewa是一个具有很高研究价值的近地小天体,也是中国首次小行星探测计划的目标天体之一.针对其轨道特性,建立了兼顾太阳、地球和月球非球形引力作用的小行星动力学模型.并在该模型的基础上,利用国际小行星中心(Minor Planet Center,MPC)提供的2004|2018年间的光学观测数据对该小行星的轨道进行确定.拟合后观测残差的均方根误差约为0:2″(与美国喷气推进实验室的Horizons在线历表系统相当),其中2004年期间数据的观测残差有所改进.最后,对小行星(469219)Kamo'oalewa的轨道误差进行了详细分析,并预报了2020-2025年期间该小行星的轨道误差.     

小行星YORP效应的可探测候选体

YORP (Yarkovsky-O''Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack)效应是小行星长期动力学演化的机制之一. 与碰撞、引力摄动等因素相比, YORP效应作用量级小, 短时标观测效应不明显, 这给直接测量YORP效应带来了很大的困难. 利用小行星光变数据库中已知的小行星数据, 统计了小行星的自转速率分布, 使用核密度估计以及Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验分别分析了近地小行星和主带小行星自转速率的分布特性, 分别给出了在近地小行星和主带小行星中寻找受YORP效应影响减速自转的最佳样本群; 基于7颗已被探测到YORP旋转加速度的近地小行星, 利用YORP强度估计方法和光变探测条件建立了筛选模型, 给出了未来可直接通过光变数据探测\lk YORP效应的10颗近地小行星.     

近地小行星轨道演化的研究现状

近地小行星由于与地球的特殊关系为世人所瞩目, 对其研究始于５０ 年代, 近年来已成为太阳系动力学中的一个热门课题。全面地介绍了近年来关于近地小行星（ 小天体） 的研究状况, 包括对近地小行星轨道演化的研究方法和主要结果。阐明了在轨道演化过程中相应力学模型的选取、有关数值方法的引用以及积分步长变化的处理等具体问题, 并介绍了轨道长期共振的作用以及对这种共振的处理方法, 最后给出了根据目前研究所知的与地球轨道距离最近的一些小行星的轨道特征等。     

宇宙信息

WISE首次发现近地小行星 美国宇航局的大视场红外巡天探测器（WISE）新发现了它的首颗近地小行星,而预计在整个工作寿命中它总共会发现大约数百颗。：这颗直径1千米的小行星编号为2010 AB78,发现于2010年1月12日。发现时它距离地球大约1．58亿千米,不会对地球构成威胁,在未来的几个世纪中它也不会接近地球。这颗小行星在一条椭圆轨道上绕太阳运动,而它的轨道面也并不和地球公转轨道面重合。     

评估潜在威胁小行星

美国宇航局大视场红外巡天探测器的观测对太阳系中的潜在：威胁小行星进行了迄今最好的评估,其结果给出了有关它们总数、起源和可能危险性的新信息。潜在威胁小行星是近地小行星中的一类。它们到地球轨道的距离非常小,不足800万千米;同时它们还足够大,可以穿过地球大气,引发区域性甚至更大范围的破坏。这些新的结果来自红外巡天探测器的小行星观测项目,它采样了107颗潜在威胁小行星,并由此对其整个族群进行了评估。     

皖小行星轨道演化的研究现状

近地小行星由于地球的特殊关系为世人所瞩目,对其研究始于５０年代,近年来已成为太阳系动力学中的一个热门课题。全面地介绍了近年来关于近地小行星的研究状况,包括对近地小行星轨道演化的研究的方法和主要结果。     

Short-term Hazardous Asteroid

In order to clarify the early warning and response requirements of near-Earth asteroids impact, the concept of “short-term hazardous asteroids” is proposed, that is, near-Earth asteroids with an equivalent diameter greater than 10 meters that may pose a threat to the Earth in the next 100 years. Based on the 756 short-term hazardous asteroids that have been discovered so far, the orbital distribution characteristics of short-term hazardous asteroids are analyzed, and the study shows that their orbital distribution differs from that of general near-Earth asteroids: the semi-major axis of the short-term hazardous asteroids is more concentrated in 1 au, and the orbital plane is more concentrated in the ecliptic plane. On the basis of the quantity model of near-Earth asteroids, a preliminary estimation model for the quantity of short-term hazardous asteroids is established, and the population of short-term hazardous asteroids with potential threat in the next 100 years is predicted. Some specific research on short-term hazardous asteroids is of great significance to the development of near-Earth asteroid search and monitoring strategies.     

Study on the Spin Characteristics of the Flora Asteroid Family

Asteroid families are the remnants of catastrophic collisions, and their fundamental physical properties provide us the information of their parent bodies and thereafter dynamical evolutions. Especially, the orbit and spin characteristics can reveal the influences of the Yarkovsky effect and the Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect on the evolution of the asteroid family, respectively. Based on the Asteroid Lightcurve Database (LCDB), the spin rate distribution of the Flora asteroid family is studied, and a tendency that the spin rates of the small Flora family members concentrate primarily in the range of 3–5 d^?1 is found. The analysis on the spin states of the Flora family asteroids tells that most of these asteroid family members are in the prograde spinning state. However, for the Flora family members with an orbital semi-major axis smaller than 2.2 au, the ratio between the number of prograde spinning members and that of retrograde ones is close to that of the near-Earth asteroids, namely 1 : 3. Furthermore, for those prograde spinning Flora family asteroids with an orbital semi-major axis larger than 2.2 au, a portion of them exhibit the aggregation in the distribution of orbital semi-major axis against the absolute magnitude, and in which nine members show the features similar to the Slivan state.     

On the detection of the Yarkovsky effect on near-Earth asteroids by means of Gaia

The Yarkovsky effect, which causes a slow drifting of the orbital elements (mainly the semimajor axis) of km-sized asteroids and meteors, is the weak non-gravitational force experienced by these bodies due to the emission of thermal photons. This effect is believed to play a role in the delivery of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) from the main belt, in the spreading of the orbital elements of asteroid families, and in the orbital evolution of potentially hazardous asteroids.Here we present preliminary results of simulationing indicating that the perturbations induced by the Yarkovsky effect on the positions of some tens of NEAs can be observed by means of the high-precision astrometric observations that will be provided by the ESA mission Gaia.     

Numerical Simulation of the Orbital Evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids Close to Mean Motion Resonances

The dynamics of near-Earth asteroids near mean motion resonances with the Earth or other planets is considered. The probability domains of the motion of some near-Earth asteroids close to low-order resonances are presented. The investigations have been carried out by means of a numerical integration of differential equations, taking into account the perturbations from the major planets and the Moon. For each investigated object an ensemble of 100 test particles with orbital elements nearby those of the nominal orbit has been constructed and its evolution has been retraced over the time interval (–3000, +3000 years). The initial set of orbits has been generated on the basis of probable variations of the initial orbital elements obtained from the least square analysis of observations.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The surface properties of small asteroids: Peculiar Betulia—A case study

We present the results of extensive thermal-infrared observations of the C-type near-Earth Asteroid (1580) Betulia obtained in June 2002 with the 3-m NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii. Betulia is a highly unusual object for which earlier radiometric observations, interpreted on the basis of simple thermal models, indicated a surface of high thermal inertia. A high thermal inertia implies a lack of thermally insulating regolith. Radiometric observations of other asteroids of comparable size indicate that regolith is present in nearly all cases. Knowledge of the surface thermal properties of small near-Earth asteroids is crucial for meaningful calculations of the Yarkovsky effect, which is invoked to explain the delivery of collisional fragments from the main belt into near-Earth orbits, and apparently has a significant influence on the orbital evolution of potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroids. Furthermore, apart from being an indicator of the presence of thermally insulating regolith on the surface of an asteroid, the thermal inertia determines the magnitude of the diurnal temperature variation and is therefore of great importance in the design of instrumentation for lander missions to small asteroids. In the case of Betulia our database is sufficiently broad to allow the use of more sophisticated thermal models than were available for earlier radiometric observations. The measured fluxes have been fitted with thermal-model emission continua to determine the asteroid's size and geometric albedo, pv. Fits obtained with a new thermophysical model imply an effective diameter of 4.57±0.46 km and an albedo of 0.077±0.015 and indicate a moderate surface thermal inertia of around 180 J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹. It is difficult to reconcile our results with earlier work, which indicate a larger diameter for Betulia and a high-thermal-inertia surface of bare rock.     

Yarkovsky detection opportunities: II. Binary systems

We consider the possibility of detecting the Yarkovsky orbital perturbation acting on binary systems among the near-Earth asteroids. This task is significantly more difficult than for solitary asteroids because the Yarkovsky force affects both the heliocentric orbit of the system's center of mass and the relative orbit of the two components. Nevertheless, we argue these are sufficiently well decoupled so that the major Yarkovsky perturbation is in the simpler heliocentric motion and is observable with the current means of radar astrometry. Over the long term, the Yarkovsky perturbation in the relative motion of the two components is also detectable for the best observed systems. However, here we consider a simplified version of the problem by ignoring mutual non-spherical gravitational perturbations between the two asteroids. With the orbital plane constant in space and the components' rotation poles fixed (and assumed perpendicular to the orbital plane), we do not examine the coupling between Yarkovsky and gravitational effects. While radar observations remain an essential element of Yarkovsky detections, lightcurve observations, with their ability to track occultation and eclipse phenomena, are also very important in the case of binaries. The nearest possible future detection of the Yarkovsky effect for a binary system occurs for (66063) 1998 RO₁ in September 2006. Farther out, even more statistically significant detections are possible for several other systems including 2000 DP₁₀₇, (66391) 1999 KW₄ and 1996 FG₃.     

The collisional and dynamical evolution of the main-belt and NEA size distributions

The size distribution of main belt of asteroids is determined primarily by collisional processes. Large asteroids break up and form smaller asteroids in a collisional cascade, with the outcome controlled by the strength-size relationship for asteroids. In addition to collisional processes, the non-collisional removal of asteroids from the main belt (and their insertion into the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population) is critical, and involves several effects: strong resonances increase the orbital eccentricity of asteroids and cause them to enter the inner planet region; chaotic diffusion by numerous weak resonances causes a slow leak of asteroids into the Mars- and Earth-crossing populations; and the Yarkovsky effect, a radiation force on asteroids, is the primary process that drives asteroids into these resonant escape routes. Yarkovsky drift is size-dependent and can modify the main-belt size distribution. The NEA size distribution is primarily determined by its source, the main-belt population, and by the size-dependent processes that deliver bodies from the main belt. All of these effects are simulated in a numerical collisional evolution model that incorporates removal by non-collisional processes. We test our model against a wide range of observational constraints, such as the observed main-belt and NEA size distributions, the number of asteroid families, the preserved basaltic crust of Vesta and its large south-pole impact basin, the cosmic ray exposure ages of meteorites, and the cratering records on asteroids. We find a strength-size relationship for main-belt asteroids and non-collisional removal rates from the main belt such that our model fits these constraints as best as possible within the parameter space we explore. Our results are consistent with other independent estimates of strength and removal rates.     

E–ELT: Expected Applications to Asteroid Observations in the Thermal Infrared

Applications of the 42m European Extremely Large Telescope (E–ELT) for the physical characterization of asteroids is presented. In particular, this work focuses on the determination of sizes and other physical properties of asteroids from measurements of their heat emission in the thermal infrared (>5 μm). Here we show that E–ELT will be best suited for the physical characterization of some selected asteroids of particular interest, as for instance: (i) targets of sample return missions to near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs); (ii) km and sub-km binary asteroids for which size information will allow their bulk density to be derived; (iii) sizes and values of the thermal inertia of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs). These two parameters both affect the Yarkovsky effect, which plays a role in the orbital evolution of km sized asteroids and represents a large source of uncertainty in the Earth impact probability prediction of some PHAs. Thermal inertia is also a sensitive indicator for the presence or absence of thermal insulating regolith on the surface of atmosphere-less bodies. Knowledge of this parameter is thus important for the design and the development of lander- and sample return-missions to asteroids. The E–ELT will also be able to spatially resolve asteroids and detect binaries in a range of sizes that are at present not accessible to present day adaptive optics.