DE303／LE303星历表在激光测月资料分析中的应用

本文介绍了利用美国喷气推进实验室（JPL）的星历磁带DE303，在计算机内存在中创建DE303／LE303星历表和月球天平动LLB303文件的过程，并应用这一最新历表处理了1987年10月至1990年12月的全球4个测月站的观测资料，求得了UT0－UTC序列SHA90M01。同时，对不同历表解逄的UT0－UTC结果也作了比较，计算结果表明，采用DE303／LE303星历表LLB303天平动历表照片得到的UT0－UTC序列的外部精度略好于用DE200／LE200星历表及LLB200天平动历表归算所得结果序列的外部精度。     

灰色模型用于卫星钟差长期预报的性能研究

利用灰色模型对GPSRb钟和Cs钟进行了长期预报,并与常用的二阶多项式模型预报进行比较,结果表明:灰色模型对GPSCs钟进行长期210d(天)预报时精度高达ns量级,对GPSRb钟的预报精度在10ns量级,明显高于二阶多项式模型的预报精度,满足实际应用中的精度要求。     

两种样本输入方式下基于GRNN的日长变化预报结果的比较

针对广义回归神经网络用于日长变化预报过程中,样本的输入方式对预报结果的影响进行了研究。采用2种输入方式:即样本按不同跨度输入以及按连续输入,对日长变化进行预报。最终证明不同的样本输入方式对日长变化预报精度的影响较大,样本按跨度输入在超短期预报中预报精度较高,样本采用连续输入的方式在短期和中期预报中预报精度较高。     

样本输入方式对极端学习机预报日长变化的影响

针对极端学习机(Extreme Learning Machine,ELM)用于日长(Length-Of-Day,LOD)变化预报过程中,样本输入方式对预报结果的影响进行了研究。采用跨度、连续和迭代3种样本输入方式对日长变化进行预报。结果表明,不同的样本输入方式对预报结果有很大影响,样本按跨度输入的预报精度最低;样本采用连续输入方式在短期和中长期预报中预报精度较高,但计算速度较慢,较适合中长期预报;样本按迭代输入方式的短期预报精度稍优于连续输入方式,而中长期预报精度则不如连续输入方式,但具有较高的预报效率。这对于日长变化的实时快速预报有着较高的现实意义。     

考虑LS+AR模型基础数据量的极移预报研究

针对目前极移最小二乘(Least Square, LS)+自回归(AutoRegressive, AR)预报模型的单一数据选取方案, 提出分别考虑LS模型数据量和AR残差数据量的组合数据模式, 并对极移预报时单一数据和组合数据预报结果精度进行分析, 探讨模型输入数据量对极移预报精度的影响. 结果表明, 模型输入数据量的变化对极移预报结果影响较大. 采用组合数据预报的方式相比较于单一数据量预报方式精度更高, 特别是针对30--360 d跨度内的中长期预报, 组合数据量的极移预报精度可比单一数据量预报精度有较大改善. 结论证明组合数据在极移预报时具有一定的优势, 可为以后极移预报数据量选取提供一定的借鉴参考意义.     

基于GM(1,1)和MECM组合模型的GPS卫星钟差中短期预报

针对卫星钟差呈现趋势项和随机项变化的特点,提出了基于GM(1,1)(灰色预报模型)和修正指数曲线法(Modified Exponential Curve Method,MECM)的组合预报模型.该模型首先采用GM(1,1)预报钟差的趋势项,然后利用MECM模型对GM(1,1)残差序列进行建模和预报,最后将GM(1,1)和MECM模型的预报结果相加得到钟差的最终预报值.此外,采用IGS(International Global Navigation Satellite System Service)公布的精密卫星钟差进行预报试验,通过与卫星钟差预报中常用的二次多项式和MECM模型预报结果的对比分析,结果表明:该方法可以对GPS卫星钟差进行高精度的中短期预报.使用12 h钟差建模时,预报6 h、12 h、18 h和24 h的平均预报精度分别为0.43 ns、0.63 ns、0.74 ns和0.79 ns,相比于二次多项式的平均预报精度分别提高了57.43%、69.71%、80.47%和86.74%,相比于MECM模型的平均预报精度分别提高了50.57%、64.41%、76.80%和84.20%;使用24 h钟差建模时,预报6 h、12 h、18h和24 h的平均预报精度分别为0.57 ns、0.61 ns、1.02 ns和1.48 ns,相比于二次多项式的平均预报精度分别提高了32.94%、55.47%、55.07%和53.16%,相比于MECM模型的平均预报精度分别提高了92.98%、66.30%、65.42%和63.99%.     

最小二乘和自回归模型方法联合预报天极偏差序列

为更好地实现天极偏差序列的预报,采用了最小二乘(least-squares,LS)拟合外推与自回归模型(autoregressive,AR)联合预报方法 (LS+AR),并对预报精度进行评估。结果表明,LS+AR模型对CPO序列1～5 d的短期预报有较高的精度,而对5～90 d的预报,dx方向大约为110μas,dy方向大约为130μas。而国际上常用的Lambert模型的预报精度比较平稳,其中dx方向在120μas左右,dy方向在220μas左右。结果表明,LS+AR模型的预报精度总体上优于Lambert模型。     

多站联合星地时间同步及预报性能分析

无线电双向法通过上行与下行观测量比对实现星载钟与地面站时间同步,比对过程中消除或削弱了绝大多数的公共误差项,因此时间比对精度高。卫星不可视时该方法不能实施,此时卫星钟预报精度只能依赖卫星钟自身的物理性能,不可视弧长越长卫星钟预报精度衰减越快。为了削弱因卫星不可视带来的精度损失,多站联合星地时间同步是一种有效的解决方案。给出了多站联合星地时间同步的基本原理、推导了时间比对模型,并利用COMPASS实测数据分析了多站联合时间同步及预报性能,实验结果表明,多站联合观测有效延长了卫星的可视弧长,为提升卫星钟预报精度提供了数据基础。由于观测设备之间的系统性偏差,各站得到的星地钟差结果可能存在跳变,影响卫星钟预报精度。因此系统性偏差成为制约多站联合星地时间同步性能的关键性因素,系统性偏差的精确标定能确保多站联合星地时间同步及预报精度的大幅提升。     

基于误差发散规律的低轨卫星大气阻力系数计算方法

低轨卫星轨道预报精度受到大气模型和大气阻力系数精度的制约,给一些高精度的空间和航天任务带来不利影响.提出了一种基于沿迹方向误差发散规律的大气阻力系数计算新方法.首先通过理论推导给出低轨卫星轨道预报中沿迹误差发散的分析表达式,定量描述初值误差和模型误差对沿迹误差的综合影响;提出利用定轨段的基本信息,优选预报段所采用的阻力系数,抑制沿迹误差的发散速率,从而降低沿迹方向预报误差的最大值,提高短期预报精度.以400 km附近的GRACE-A卫星的全弧段星载GPS高精度资料为基础,检验了方法的精度和成功率.结果表明:相对于传统的定轨预报方法,新方法能提高24 h短期预报精度约45%,成功率约71%,总体有效率约86%;方法对低、中、高等3种太阳辐射水平均有效,对于中低等级的地磁扰动也有效,具备较好的应用价值.     

基于Vondrák滤波1阶差分灰色模型的卫星钟差预报方法

为了提高卫星钟差预报的精度,提出基于Vondrák滤波1阶差分的灰色模型算法.首先,对原始钟差数据序列采用Vondrák滤波处理后,得到1组新的钟差数据序列.然后,对相邻历元的钟差数据序列作1阶差分处理.最后,基于Vondrák滤波后的1阶差分的钟差差值数据序列,建立了GPS钟差预报的灰色模型.此外,采用了IGS(International Global Navigation Satellite System Service)公布的精密卫星钟差数据进行了预报试验,通过与卫星钟差预报中常用的2次多项式模型和直接采用原始钟差数据建立灰色预报模型预报结果的对比分析,结果表明:该方法可以对GPS卫星钟差进行高精度的中短期预报.在12 h、16 h、20 h和24 h的平均预报精度分别为0.50 ns、0.85 ns、1.08 ns和1.27 ns,相比于2次多项式模型的平均预报精度分别提高了24.24%、15.84%、12.90%和11.81%;相比于直接采用原始钟差数据建立灰色预报模型的平均预报精度分别提高了56.14%、49.40%、48.82%和47.80%.     

Lunar Clinopyroxene and Plagioclase: Surface Distribution and Composition

The Clementine UVVIS images and the spectral and chemical (mineral) characteristics of lunar soil samples previously measured by the Lunar Samples Characterization Consortium were used to map the plagioclase and clinopyroxene abundance in the lunar surface material. An excess of plagioclase was found in young highland craters (e.g., in the crater Tycho) and in their ray systems. For clinopyroxenes, analogous behavior was observed in mare craters (e.g., in the crater Aristarchus). The maps for the FeO and Al₂O₃ bulk contents and the contents of these oxides in plagioclase and clinopyroxene were estimated by the same technique. These maps were compared to each other and to the predicted distribution of the lunar regolith maturity. The regolith of highland ray systems (e.g., the Tycho crater system) is characterized not only by low maturity but also by peculiar iron and aluminum contents: the lower the soil maturity degree, the smaller the iron content and the greater the aluminum content. This is confirmed by the data for the lunar soil samples from the Apollo 16 landing site. A cluster analysis of the “clinopyroxene content-maturity” and “plagioclase content-maturity” correlation diagrams allowed the mineral mapping of the lunar surface to be performed.__________Translated from Astronomicheskii Vestnik, Vol. 39, No. 4, 2005, pp. 291–303.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shkuratov, Kaydash, Pieters.     

The ellipsoidal and dumbbell-shaped inclusions within particulate lunar globules

The centrifugal motion of liquid, solid, and gaseous particles within the symmetrical lunar dumbbell and prolate droplets is studied. The migration of dense particles away from the rotational axis and light particles towards the axis has been observed in many cases. A method for determining the temperatures of formation of the globules is presented which depends on the comparison between the prediction of simple models, and the observed position of the particles within a globule. The globules examined show initial formation temperatures in the range 1800–2000 K. The study strongly supports the hypothesis that most lunar globules result from meteorite impact.     

Effects of the physical libration of the moon on lunar orbiters

Lunar physical libration, which is true oscillation of lunar equator in the space, alters the lunar gravitational field in the space coordinate system and affects the orbiting motion of lunar orbiters (hereafter called as lunar satellites) correspondingly. The effect is very similar to that of the precession and nutation on the earth satellites, and a similar treatment can be used. The variations in the gravitational force and in the orbit perturbation solution are clearly given in this paper together with numerical illustrations.     

On the accuracy of lunar ephemerides using the data provided by the future Russian lunar laser ranging system

The potential effect of the future Russian lunar laser ranging system (LLRS) on the accuracy of lunar ephemerides is discussed. In addition to the LLRS in Altai, several other observatories suitable for the LLRS installation are considered. The variation of accuracy of lunar ephemerides in the process of commissioning of new LLRS stations is estimated by mathematical modeling. It is demonstrated that the error in the determination of certain lunar ephemeris parameters may be reduced by up to 16% after seven years of operation of the Altai LLRS with a nearly optimal observational program.     

Primary and secondary magnetizations in lunar rocks - Implications for the ancient magnetic field of the Moon

The nature of the ancient magnetic field of the Moon, in which lunar rocks acquired their remanent magnetism, has emerged as an important potential source of evidence, if somewhat controversial, for a lunar core which at a period in the Moon's history was the source of the magnetic field. Many of the lunar rocks possess a stable, primary remanence (NRM) with characteristics consistent with and indicative of thermo-remanent magnetization, acquired when the rocks cooled in an ambient magnetic field. Also present are secondary components of magnetization, one type of which appears to have been acquired between collection on the Moon and reception in the laboratory and others which were apparently acquired on the Moon.An important question to be answered is whether meteorite impacts play any part in lunar magnetism, either in modifying pre-existing magnetizations or by imparting a shock remanent magnetism (SRM) in a transient magnetic field associated with the impact. With current knowledge, SRM, in either a global lunar magnetic field of a transient field, and TRM cannot be distinguished, and in the paper the secondary magnetization characteristic of lunar rocks are examined to investigate whether their nature favours the presence of a permanent lunar magnetic field or whether they are consistent with an origin as a transient field-generated SRM.Besides terrestrial processes of secondary magnetization, such as viscous, chemical and partial thermoremanent magnetization, possible processes peculiar to the Moon are discussed and their likely importance assessed in relation to lunar sample history. The nature of the secondary magnetizations appear to be best explained on the assumption that they are due to one or more of the processes that require an ambient lunar field, namely viscous, partial thermoremanent and shock magnetization. When associated with other types of evidence obtained from lunar magnetism studies, investigations of lunar sample remanent magnetism now favours the existence of an ancient lunar magnetic field.     

Properties of the Hermean regolith: V. New optical reflectance spectra, comparison with lunar anorthosites, and mineralogical modelling

We present new optical (0.4-0.65 μm) spectra of Mercury and lunar pure anorthosite locations, obtained quasi-simultaneously with the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) in 2002. A comparative study is performed with the model of Lucey et al. (2000, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 20297-20305, and references therein) between iron-poor, mature, pure anorthosite (>90% plagioclase feldspar) Clementine spectra from the lunar farside and a combined 0.4-1.0 μm mercurian spectrum, obtained with the NOT, calculated for standard photometric geometry. Mercury is located at more extreme locations in the Lucey ratio-reflectance diagrams than any known lunar soil, specifically with respect to the extremely iron-poor mature anorthosites. Though quantitative prediction of FeO and TiO₂ abundances cannot be made without a more generally applicable model, we find qualitatively that the abundances of both these oxides must be near zero for Mercury. We utilize the theory of Hapke (2002, Icarus 157, 523-534, and references therein), with realistic photometric parameters, to model laboratory spectra of matured mineral powders and lunar soils, and remotely sensed spectra of lunar anorthosites and Mercury. An important difference between fabricated and natural powders is the high value for the internal scattering parameter necessary to interpret the spectra for the former, and the requirement of rough and non-isotropically scattering surfaces in the modelling of the latter. The mature lunar anorthosite spectra were well modelled with binary mixtures of calcic feldspars and olivines, grain sizes of 25-30 μm and a concentration of submicroscopic metallic iron (SMFe) of 0.12-0.15% in grain coatings. The mercurian spectrum is not possible to interpret from terrestrial mineral powder spectra without introducing an average particle scattering function for the bulk soil that increases in backscattering efficiency with wavelength. The observed spectrum is somewhat better predicted with binary mixture models of feldspars and pyroxenes, than with single-component regoliths consisting of either albite or diopside. Correct spectral reflectance values were predicted with a concentration of 0.1 wt% SMFe in coatings of 15-30 μm sized grains. Since reasonable cosmogonical formation scenarios for Mercury, or meteoritic infall, predict iron concentrations at least this high, we draw the conclusion that the average grain size of Mercury is about a factor of two smaller than for average returned lunar soil samples. The 0.6-2.5 μm spectrum of McCord and Clark (1979, J. Geophys. Res. 178, 745-747) is used to further limit the possible range of mineralogical composition of Mercury. It is found that an intimately mixed and matured 3:1 labradorite-to-enstatite regolith composition best matches both the optical and near-infrared spectra, yielding an abundance of ∼1.2 wt% FeO and ∼0 wt% TiO₂.     

New Trends in the Development of the Lunar Physical Libration Theory

A review of the modern state of the lunar libration theory is presented. A significant progress in the lunar investigation is achieved due to the simultaneous processing of results of the satellite Doppler tracing and of the lunar laser ranging. The data evidencing existence of a small iron core in the Moon are discussed. In this connection, the further development of the theory of rotation of the Moon presents the study of internal structure and dynamics of a lunar body. A model of a two-layer Moon can have a very advanced application to explain some observed phenomena and to be as a first approach in the modelling of internal processes determining the lunar rotation.     

Precession of the lunar core

Goldreich (Goldreich, P. [1967]. J. Geophys. Res. 72, 3135) showed that a lunar core of low viscosity would not precess with the mantle. We show that this is also the case for much of lunar history. But when the Moon was close to the Earth, the Moon’s core was forced to follow closely the precessing mantle, in that the rotation axis of the core remained nearly aligned with the symmetry axis of the mantle. The transition from locked to unlocked core precession occurred between 26.0 and 29.0 Earth radii, thus it is likely that the lunar core did not follow the mantle during the Cassini transition. Dwyer and Stevenson (Dwyer, C.A., Stevenson, D.J. [2005]. An Early Nutation-Driven Lunar Dynamo. AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts GP42A-06) suggested that the lunar dynamo needs mechanical stirring to power it. The stirring is caused by the lack of locked precession of the lunar core. So, we do not expect a lunar dynamo powered by mechanical stirring when the Moon was closer to the Earth than 26.0-29.0 Earth radii. A lunar dynamo powered by mechanical stirring might have been strongest near the Cassini transition.     

The evolution of the moon

The thermal evolution of the Moon as it can be defined by the available data and theoretical calculations is discussed. A wide assortment of geological, geochemical and geophysical data constrain both the present-day temperatures and the thermal history of the lunar interior. On the basis of these data, the Moon is characterized as a differentiated body with a crust, a 1000-km-thick solid mantle (lithosphere) and an interior region (core) which may be partially molten. The presence of a crust indicates extensive melting and differentiation early in the lunar history. The ages of lunar samples define the chronology of igneous activity on the lunar surface. This covers a time span of about 1.5 billion yr, from the origin to about 3.16 billion yr ago. Most theoretical models require extensive melting early in the lunar history, and the outward differentiation of radioactive heat sources.Thermal history calculations, whether based on conductive or convective computation codes define relatively narrow bounds for the present day temperatures in the lunar mantle. In the inner region of the 700 km radius, the temperature limits are wider and are between about 100 and 1600°C at the center of the Moon. This central region could have a partially or totally molten core.The lunar heat flow values (about 30 ergs/cm²s) restrict the present day average uranium abundance to 60 ± 15 ppb (averaged for the whole Moon) with typical ratios of K/U = 2000 and Th/U = 3.5. This is consistent with an achondritic bulk composition for the Moon.The Moon, because of its smaller size, evolved rapidly as compared to the Earth and Mars. The lunar interior is cooling everywhere at the present and the Moon is tectonically inactive while Mars could be and the Earth is definitely active.     

Solar-wind interactions with the moon: Nature and composition of nitrogen compounds

The lunar atmosphere and magnetic field are very tenuous. The solar wind, therefore, interacts directly with the lunar surface material and the dominant nature of interaction is essentially complete absorption of solar-wind particles by the surface material resulting in no upstream bowshock, but a cavity downstream. The solar-wind nitrogen ion species induce and undergo a complex set of reactions with the elements of lunar material and the solar-wind-derived trapped elements. The nitrogen concentration indigeneous to the lunar surface material is practically nil. Therefore any nitrogen and nitrogen compounds found in the lunar surface material are due to the solar-wind implantation of nitrogen ions. The flux of the solar-wind nitrogen ion species is about 6×10³ cm^–2 s^–1. Since there is no evidence for accumulation of nitrogen species in the lunar surface material, the outflux of nitrogen species from the lunar material to the atmosphere is the same as the solar-wind nitrogen ion flux. The species of the outflux are primarily NO and NH₃, and their respective concentrations in the near surface lunar atmosphere are found by calculation to be 327 and 295 cm^–3. The calculated concentration of NH₃ seems to be consistent with the sunrise concentration results of the mass spectrometer implanted on the lunar surface. This is not the case for the concentration of NO. According to the presently calculated concentration value of NO, the mass spectrometer should have detected NO at sunrise, but no report was made for its detection. There is also discrepancy about the concentration of N₂ which is explained in this paper. The concentrations of nitrogen species in the lunar material at the time of sample collection on the Moon remained about the same when the samples were analyzed on the Earth. However, no specific experiment was planned to detect the nitrogen species in the lunar material samples.