基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.     

两行根数辅助的SLR单站定轨

单站测距资料定轨的困难限制了漫反射SLR(Satellite Laser Ranging)测距资料的应用.为此,提出利用两行根数模拟多站SLR测距资料作为辅助,实现单站SLR测距资料定轨的方法.该方法对卫星Ajisai单站SLR测距资料定轨并生成5 d预报轨道,误差小于40 m,实现利用单站测距资料的轨道改进,验证了方法的可行性.     

Study on the Orbit Prediction Errors of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE Data

Two line element (TLE) released by the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information about its accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application of the TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate the orbit error data, based on the historical TLE data obtained from the Space-Track website and the SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of the variation of orbit prediction error with time are given for each space object, and the characteristics of the error evolution are further discussed for the different types of orbits. The mean analytic model of the orbit prediction error evolution with time is given respectively for the four orbit types of space objects, which provides a valuable reference for extending the application of the TLE data.     

Space Event and Outlier Detection Based on Expectation Maximization Algorithm

The United States provide Element Sets (ELSET) database in Two-Line Element (TLE) format for public use, which plays an important role in the inversion of atmospheric density in the thermosphere, ballistic coefficient estimation, early-warning and so on. Due to large uncertainties existing in the TLE generation process, space environment changes, and space events, ELSET database contains a large number of abnormal TLE data to be filtered, such as corrected TLE, orbital element outlier, and Bstar outlier. The existing methods to filter out the outliers lack general applicability and are very complicated, which are only applicable to a few space targets in certain orbit regions. To overcome the shortcomings of the existing methods, a filtering method is proposed based on Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm employing a sliding window and polynomial fitting method, which can detect outliers for different orbital elements and space events. The research shows that the algorithm can effectively single out the outliers in TLE sequences and is suitable for all orbital debris.     

Resonant forcing of Mercury's libration in longitude

The period of free libration of Mercury's longitude about the position it would have had if it were rotating uniformly at 1.5 times its orbital mean motion is close to resonance with Jupiter's orbital period. The Jupiter perturbations of Mercury's orbit thereby lead to amplitudes of libration at the 11.86 year period that may exceed the amplitude of the 88 day forced libration determined by radar. Mercury's libration in longitude may be thus dominated by only two periods of 88 days and 11.86 years, where other periods from the planetary perturbations of the orbit have much smaller amplitudes.     

Gravitational Radiation Damping and Evolution of the Orbit of Compact Binary Stars (Solution by the Second Perturbation Method)

The influence of the gravitational radiation damping on the evolution of the orbital elements of compact binary stars is examined by using the method of perturbation. The perturbation equations with the true anomaly as an independent variable are given. This effect results in both the secular and periodic variation of the semi-major axis, the eccentricity, the mean longitude at the epoch and the mean longitude. However, the longitude of periastron exhibits no secular variation, but only periodic variation. The effect of secular variation of the orbit would lead to collapse of the system of binary stars. The deduced formulae are applied to the calculation of secular variation of the orbital elements for three compact binary stars: PSR19 13 + 16, PSR J0737-3039 and M33X-7. The results obtained are discussed.     

The Effect of C22 on Orbit Energy and Angular Momentum

The effect of the C₂₂ gravity field term on a particle is evaluated analytically over one orbit to find the change in orbit energy and angular momentum as an explicit function of the orbital inclination, argument of pericenter, longitude of the ascending node, orbit parameter and eccentricity. Changes in orbit energy and angular momentum are shown to be proportional to a family of integrals which can be parameterized in terms of eccentricity and non-dimensional pericenter radius. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Use of Lie Series in the Construction of a Perturbation Theory and Some Recent Results in the Theory of the Motion of Hyperion

This paper begins with a brief review of a form of the Lie series transformation, and then reports some new results in the study, using Lie series methods, of the orbit of Saturn's satellite Hyperion. In particular, improved expressions are given for the long-period perturbations of the orbital elements which describe the motion in the orbit plane, and also first results for expressions for the short-period perturbations in the apse longitude, derived from the Lie series generating function. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Satellite resonance with longitude-dependent gravity—II Effects involving the eccentricity

For a satellite in a nominally circular orbit at arbitrary inclination whose mean motion is commensurable with the Earth's rotation, the dependence of gravity on longitude leads to a resonant variation in eccentricity as well as the long-period oscillation in longitude. Provided forces capable of processing perigee are present, it is shown that the change in eccentricity for a satellite captured in librational resonance is not secular but periodic.

There are corresponding resonance effects for a satellite in a nominally equatorial but eccentric orbit. Here the commensurability condition is that the longitudes of the apses shall be nearly repetitive relative to the rotating Earth. There will be a long-period oscillation in longitude which can take the form of either a libration (trapped) or a circulation (free), and there will also be an oscillation of the orbital plane having the same period as the precession of perigee relative to inertial space.     

TLE-Aided Orbit Determination Using Single-Station SLR Data

It is difficult to use the single-station satellite laser ranging (SLR) data for orbit determination, due to the singular geometrical distribution of the observations. The single-station data produced by performing the diffuse- reflection SLR on the earth-orbiting space debris are therefore ineffective for orbit improvement. To solve this problem, we propose an orbit determination method by using single-station SLR data in aid of the two-line element set (TLE). For verifying its feasibility, this method is implemented and applied to the orbit determination of the satellite Ajisai, using the single-station SLR data of five passes in one day and the corresponding TLE. And on this basis, the five-day orbit prediction is generated, the result indicates that the errors of predicted positions are less than 40 m. In addition, the potential application of this method in the orbit improvement of space debris is discussed.     

Nodal regression of the quadrantid meteor stream: An analytic approach

The mean orbit of the Quadrantid meteor stream has a high eccentricity and inclination with an aphelion close to the orbit of Jupiter. The nodal regression rate, a quantity which has been well determined from observations, cannot be calculated with sufficient accuracy using standard low-order expansions of the disturbing function. By using a high-order expansion of the disturbing function we show how the behavior of the longitude of ascending node of the Quadrantid stream is a result of both secular and resonant effects. Our analysis illustrates how the proximity of the stream's orbit to the 2: 1 commensurability with Jupiter dominates the short-term variations in orbital elements.     

The motion of charged dust particles in interplanetary space—I. The zodiacal dust cloud

The problem of electromagnetic perturbations of charged dust particle orbits in interplanetary space has been re-examined in the light of our better understanding of the large scale spatial and temporal interplanetary plasma and field topology. Using both analytical and numerical solutions for particle propagation it was shown that: (1) stochastic variations induced by electromagnetic forces are unimportant for the zodiacal dust cloud except for the lowest masses, (2) systemetic variations in orbit inclinations are unimportant if orbital radii are larger than 10 a.u. This is due to the solar cycle variation in magnetic polarity which tends to cancel out systematic effects, (3) systematic variations in orbital parameters (inclination, longitude of ascending node, longitude of perihel) induced by electromagnetic forces inside 1 a.u. tend to shift the plane of symmetry of the zodiacal dust cloud somewhat towards the solar magnetic equatorial plane, (4) inside 0.3 a.u. there is a possibility that dust particles may enter a region of “magnetically resonant” orbits for some time. Changes in orbit parameters are then correspondingly enhanced, (5) the observed similarity of the plane of symmetry of zodiacal light with the solar equatorial plane may be the effect of the interaction of charged interplanetary dust particles with the interplanetary magnetic field. Numerical orbit calculation of dust particles show that one of the results of this interaction is the rotation of the orbit plane about the solar rotational axis.     

日月轨道计算对TLE深空编目目标预报精度的影响

双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)作为一类广泛使用的空间物体编目数据, 其预报精度和误差特性是TLE编目 在空间碎片研究中所要关注的问题之一. TLE编目需要配合SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbations 4/Simplified Deep Space 4)模型进行轨道预报, 对深空物体来说, 主要考虑带谐项$J_2$、$J_3$、$J_4$摄动、 第三体日月摄动和特殊轨道共振问题修正等. 其中, SGP4/SDP4模型第三体摄动计算时, 对日月轨道近似采用了长期进动根数和 简单平运动的方式, 在外推10d时存在约2$^\circ$--3${^\circ     

A timing formula for main-sequence star binary pulsars

In binary radio pulsars with a main-sequence star companion, the spin-induced quadrupole moment of the companion gives rise to a precession of the binary orbit. As a first approximation one can model the secular evolution caused by this classical spin-orbit coupling by linear-in-time changes of the longitude of periastron and the projected semi-major axis of the pulsar orbit. This simple representation of the precession of the orbit neglects two important aspects of the orbital dynamics of a binary pulsar with an oblate companion. First, the quasiperiodic effects along the orbit, owing to the anisotropic 1/ r ³ nature of the quadrupole potential. Secondly, the long-term secular evolution of the binary orbit, which leads to an evolution of the longitude of periastron and the projected semi-major axis, which is non-linear in time.   In this paper a simple timing formula for binary radio pulsars with a main-sequence star companion is presented which models the short-term secular and most of the short-term periodic effects caused by the classical spin-orbit coupling. I also give extensions of the timing formula that account for long-term secular changes in the binary pulsar motion. It is shown that the short-term periodic effects are important for the timing observations of the binary pulsar PSR B1259–63. The long-term secular effects are likely to become important in the next few years of timing observations of the binary pulsar PSR J0045–7319. They could help to restrict or even determine the moments of inertia of the companion star and thus probe its internal structure.   Finally, I reinvestigate the spin-orbit precession of the binary pulsar PSR J0045–7319 since the analysis given in the literature is based on an incorrect expression for the precession of the longitude of periastron. A lower limit of 20° for the inclination of the B star with respect to the orbital plane is derived.     

环月飞行器精密定轨的模拟仿真

以中国正在实施的探月计划“嫦娥1号”工程为背景，分析了在中国联合S波段(USB)测控网和甚长基线射电干涉(VLBI)跟踪网的现有空间分布、观测精度水平下的环月飞行器精密定轨．采用的方法是模拟仿真计算，即首先模拟观测数据，然后在计入各误差源的影响后进行求解，并对解算结果进行比较．模拟仿真的工具是美国宇航局哥达德飞行中心的空间数据分析软件系统GEODYN．环月飞行的主要误差源是月球重力场，为此首先讨论了目前精度最高的月球重力场模型JGL165P1的(形式)误差．在模拟了测距、测速以及VLBI的时延、时延率数据后，计入月球重力场的误差进行精密轨道确定．定轨时采用了减缩动力学(reduced dynamic)方法，即选用合适的经验加速度参数吸收重力场误差对定轨的影响．结果表明对于一个不将月球重力场作为主要科学目标的探月计划(如“嫦娥1号”)，减缩动力学方法是一个简单、有效地提高环月飞行器定轨精度的方法．     

Orbital dynamics and equilibrium points around an asteroid with gravitational orbit–attitude coupling perturbation

The strongly perturbed dynamical environment near asteroids has been a great challenge for the mission design. Besides the non-spherical gravity, solar radiation pressure, and solar tide, the orbital motion actually suffers from another perturbation caused by the gravitational orbit–attitude coupling of the spacecraft. This gravitational orbit–attitude coupling perturbation (GOACP) has its origin in the fact that the gravity acting on a non-spherical extended body, the real case of the spacecraft, is actually different from that acting on a point mass, the approximation of the spacecraft in the orbital dynamics. We intend to take into account GOACP besides the non-spherical gravity to improve the previous close-proximity orbital dynamics. GOACP depends on the spacecraft attitude, which is assumed to be controlled ideally with respect to the asteroid in this study. Then, we focus on the orbital motion perturbed by the non-spherical gravity and GOACP with the given attitude. This new orbital model can be called the attitude-restricted orbital dynamics, where restricted means that the orbital motion is studied as a restricted problem at a given attitude. In the present paper, equilibrium points of the attitude-restricted orbital dynamics in the second degree and order gravity field of a uniformly rotating asteroid are investigated. Two kinds of equilibria are obtained: on and off the asteroid equatorial principal axis. These equilibria are different from and more diverse than those in the classical orbital dynamics without GOACP. In the case of a large spacecraft, the off-axis equilibrium points can exist at an arbitrary longitude in the equatorial plane. These results are useful for close-proximity operations, such as the asteroid body-fixed hovering.     

Perturbed orbital elements of close binary systems due to tidal lag in longitude

This paper deals with the perturbations which tidal lag in longitude can produce to the orbital elements of a close binary system. The expressions obtained for the six elements of the orbit have been presented as functions of the unperturbed true anomaly, measured from the periastron. Our study includes the effects produced by the second, third, and fourth tidal harmonic distortions. In order to save space these extremely lengthy equations are given in the compact form of summations, by means of Hansen coefficients. Various recurrence relations, which hold good for Hansen coefficients, are also presented. Finally, this paper includes a second-order approximation only for the secular terms of first-order approximation.     

The geometry of impacts on a synchronous planetary satellite

We consider a satellite in a circular orbit about a planet that, in turn, is in a circular orbit about the Sun; we further assume that the plane of the planetocentric orbit of the satellite is the same as that of the heliocentric orbit of the planet. The pair planet–satellite is encountered by a population of small bodies on planet-crossing, inclined orbits. With this setup, and using the extension of Öpik’s theory by Valsecchi et al. (Astron Astrophys 408:1179–1196, 2003), we analytically compute the velocity, the elongation from the apex and the impact point coordinates of the bodies impacting the satellite, as simple functions of the heliocentric orbital elements of the impactor and of the longitude of the satellite at impact. The relationships so derived are of interest for satellites in synchronous rotation, since they can shed light on the degree of apex–antapex cratering asymmetry that some of these satellites show. We test these relationships on two different subsets of the known population of Near Earth Asteroids.     

Variations in the atmospheric neutral density at 145km

A least-squares multiple linear regression is performed on orbital decay density data obtained from precise orbital analysis of 22 low-perigee (130–160 km) Air Force satellites. Variations related to solar activity, the semi-annual effect, geomagnetic activity, and the zenith angle of the Sun are in agreement with the model of Jacchia (1971). Density variations in longitude and latitude are also deduced and compared with recent results from other investigations within this altitude regime.     

伽利略卫星的等势面和正常重力场

给出了轨道面接近赤道面的轨旋同步卫星的正常重力场在等势面上分布的展开式，并讨论了潮汐对其正常重力场的影响，利用这一方法，讨论了伽利略卫星正常重力场及其在等势面上的分布，以及木星的潮汐对伽利略卫星的正常重力场的影响，计算表明，潮汐对伽利略卫星的正常重力场影响不大，其径向的影响grt大约是10^-3-10^-5m/s^2的量级，与重力场在经度和纬度方向的分量接近，通过估算，月球的重力场所受到的潮汐影响要比绝大多数伽利略卫星受到的潮汐影响小。