水稻种植环境综合适宜性评价方法研究

开展特定区域水稻种植产业布局是科学制定区域农业种植产业规划的重要内容,而水稻种植适宜性评价是水稻种植产业布局的前提。本文以中国好粮油示范县——福建省浦城县为研究区,基于层次分析模型构建土壤条件、立地条件、灌排条件、气候条件和机械耕作条件5大类共21个指标的水稻种植适宜性评价体系,利用地学模型、回归模型和空间插值等方法计算、模拟评价指标空间分布数据,形成5 m×5 m分辨率的评价指标栅格数据集,基于经验指数法建立适宜度指数模型,开展精细尺度下的水稻种植环境综合适宜性评价。利用实测样点水稻产量与水稻种植环境综合适宜度指数进行分析,发现二者呈显著正相关,验证了本研究评价工作的正确性和可行性。最后利用K-means属性聚类法识别研究区水稻种植多维环境适宜性的空间模式。结果表明：① 研究区水稻种植高度适宜、较适宜、中度适宜耕地面积占全县耕地面积的84.4%,次适宜耕地仅占15.6%,耕地整体适宜性较高;② Ⅰ类集聚区水稻种植综合适宜性和各类指标适宜性均较高;Ⅱ类集聚区水稻种植综合适宜性较高,但灌排条件适宜性很低;Ⅲ类集聚区水稻种植综合适宜性较高,但立地、土壤条件适宜性较低;Ⅳ类集聚区水稻种植综合适宜性较低,灌排条件适宜性最低。本研究可为水稻种植适宜性评价提供方法借鉴,并为浦城县更合理科学地开展农业种植规划提供依据。     

峨眉山旅游气候研究

气候资源是旅游事业开发中极为重要的一种自然资源，通过分析峨眉山地区基本气候特征，以及特色景观出现的季节、时段和条件，得出峨山山旅游气候的优势，提出要大力发展峨眉山的旅游业，应充分利用和开发旅游气候资源。     

基于栅格的安徽省人居环境人文适宜性评价

新时期新型城镇化建设对适宜的人居人文环境提出了切实要求。运用GIS技术,基于夜间灯光遥感影像、交通矢量、兴趣点（POI）、统计年鉴等多源数据,以500 m×500 m栅格为基础单元,选取经济水平、交通通达、历史文化、公共服务等因子（权重分别为0.36、0.27、0.17、0.20）,采用综合指数法构建人居环境人文适宜性评价模型,定量评价2017年安徽省人居环境人文适宜性。结果表明：① 安徽省人居环境人文适宜性指数介于0.83~87.10之间,划分为高度适宜区、较高适宜区、中度适宜区、一般适宜区及临界适宜区5种类型区,以中度适宜区面积最大,占全省总面积68.72%,高度适宜区面积最小,仅占总面积的1.24%,整体呈现“多核心”、“条带式”空间分异格局;② 交通通达和公共服务是造成全省人居环境人文适宜性分异的主要因子,其指数均值在中度适宜区皆达到了94.18,且贡献率均值在各类型区均在34.00%以上;历史文化对较高及临界适宜区影响明显,贡献率均值分别为10.51%和11.93%;经济水平对高度适宜区的作用最显著,其贡献率均值高达22.02%;③ 全省近90.86%的人口集中分布在人居环境人文适宜性指数43.00~66.00之间,属于中度至较高适宜区的范围,人居环境人文质量与人口分布较为匹配。测评结果较为客观地反映了安徽省人居环境的人文本底。     

基于ArcGIS空间分析的土地开发建设适宜性评价——以桂西为例

文章以桂西为研究区域,以土地开发建设适宜性评价为研究对象,依据土地适宜性评价原则和评价因子,基于地理信息系统（GIS）技术强大的空间分析功能建立土地适宜性评价模型,统计桂西适宜开发建设土地的空间位置、分布与面积,为国土资源管理提供参考。     

内蒙古自治区人居环境综合适宜性评价及空间优化

科学评价区域人居环境适宜性,是开展国土空间开发适宜性评价的前提,对提高区域资源环境承载能力,促进人与自然和谐发展至关重要。本文以内蒙古自治区为案例,基于栅格尺度从自然与人文2个方面对人居环境适宜性进行评价;将适宜性因子作为城乡建设用地扩展的限制条件,采用MCR模型对城乡建设用地进行模拟,提出区域人居环境空间优化方案,主要结论有：水文与气候条件对内蒙古自治区人居环境的整体限制作用较强;内蒙古自治区人居环境临界适宜与不适宜区占比最高,达到52.8%;高度适宜区占比最低为9%,主要分布在前套平原及西辽河平原,全区人居环境适宜性水平整体偏低。内蒙古自治区城乡建设用地人居环境比较适宜与高度适宜区占绝对优势,适宜比例超过73%,从适宜性空间分布来看,南部整体优于北部,东部整体优于西部,地带性特征明显。内蒙古自治区城乡人居环境不适宜与临界适宜主要表现为自然条件不适宜及对自然保护区的不合理占用。内蒙古自治区城乡建设用地模拟结果显示远期呼包地区一体化连片趋势明显,内蒙古自治区可逐步形成以呼包鄂都市区、赤通都市区为主体,以文化特色鲜明、公共设施完善的中心城镇及中心乡村为依托,以人居环境不适宜区为间隔,城乡融合的人居环境空间格局。     

低丘缓坡荒滩等未利用地开发利用宜建适宜性评价——以山东青州市为例

以青州市为例,对低丘缓坡荒滩等未利用地开发利用宜建进行适宜性评价,选取自然、社会、生态等因素的指标作为参评因子,确定标准值及权重,得出4种评价结果:最适宜建设、适宜建设、基本适宜和不适宜。     

斯堪的纳维亚半岛及周边地区城镇发展适宜性评价

城镇发展适宜性研究有助于了解城镇发展的优势条件,为确定城镇建设规划的扩展方向提供依据。在北极与亚北极开展研究对中国开展在城镇化、重大基础设施、廊道建设方面的国际合作有重大意义。本文使用多源数据,在采样的基础上利用逐步法的思想进行变量筛选,共筛选出5个显著指标,用logistic方法拟合出最终的模型进行城镇发展适宜性评价,最终得到研究区城镇发展适宜性分级图。研究结果表明：筛选后的显著指标对研究区城镇分布的影响作用大小排序为,温度（正向）、交通网密度（正向）、海拔高度（反向）、人口密度（正向）、距港口距离（反向）;温度、交通网密度、海拔高度、人口密度、距最近港口距离增加1个单位,城镇发展的几率分别比原来增加了38.4%、16.7%、9%、0.4%、0.1%;研究区的Ⅰ（不适宜）、Ⅱ（中度适宜）、Ⅲ（高度适宜）的城镇发展适宜性均值分别为0.03、0.16、0.68（分别约占研究区总面积的76.82%、21.82%、1.37%）;城镇发展适宜性总体呈现出随纬度升高而降低、随经度升高而增加的趋势,适宜城镇发展的气候地理条件是温带大陆性湿润气候带和温带海洋性气候带以及平原与低地地区;研究区的城镇发展适宜性俄罗斯西北部为0.08、瑞典为0.07、芬兰为0.06、挪威为0.03。俄罗斯西北部城镇发展适宜性整体上呈现出北低南高,南部呈现两边高中间低的空间布局;瑞典呈现出西北低东南高,沿海大于内陆的空间布局;芬兰呈现出北（高原）低南（沿海）高,中部次高的空间布局;挪威呈现出南部沿海高,西部沿海次高,其他区域低的空间布局。     

定西市气候资源特点与开发利用

对定西市近50年的气候资源进行分析.结果表明定西市具有光照充足、光能资源丰富、气候温凉、热量分布差异大、降水少变率大、光热水匹配基本合理等特点.根据其气候资源的特点,提出了农业气候资源开发利用途径.     

基于可持续性视角的建设用地适宜性评价及其应用

建设用地适宜性是土地资源利用与管理决策的依据。本文基于土地利用可持续性界定建设用地适宜性内涵,从灾害风险、地形地貌、生态环境和区位条件4个维度,构建了较规范的适宜性指标体系;针对已有评价方法的不足,构建了整合极值法、条件函数法、线性加权综合的“多要素分布式算法——情景矩阵”评估框架;进而基于适宜性识别冲突空间,以空间冲突面积占总建设用地面积的比重作为空间冲突强度来刻画区域建设空间布局的合理性与可持续性。本文以新疆玛纳斯县为例开展研究,结果表明玛纳斯县适宜建设空间（达230 km²以上）约占全县总面积的26%;最适宜和比较适宜性建设用地主要分布于中部及中北部乡镇及农（团）场驻地附近,基本适宜建设区主要分布在比较适宜建设空间的外围及中南部山前平原地带;该县冲突空间达4.21 km²,占建成区面积的22.74‰;冲突空间主要分布在河流沿岸和中部城镇化发展区;南部、北部的生态脆弱区及中部工业化发展区的乡镇空间冲突强度也较高。研究表明,本文提出的建设用地适宜性评估框架与方法逼近客观现实,简单易行,能弥补以往评价方法的不足;适宜性在空间冲突分析与可持续性土地利用管理中具有较好的应用价值。     

随机森林算法在区域生态旅游适宜性评价中的应用研究

生态旅游适宜性评价是评估生态旅游发展潜力、制定生态旅游规划和进行生态旅游开发的基础和重要参照。本文引入机器学习方法,从方法可行性、数据映射和预测实现等方面进行探讨,应用随机森林算法对湖南武陵山片区生态旅游适宜性展开实证研究。湖南武陵山片区旅游资源丰富,脱贫后亟需开展生态旅游来巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果实现与乡村振兴有效衔接以及促进可持续发展。研究结果表明：(1)将机器学习算法引入到区域生态旅游适宜性评价领域作为一种新方法,可为之后改进生态旅游适宜性评价方法提供新思路与新方案;(2)随机森林算法可以有效应用在区域生态旅游适宜性评价方面,可作为适宜性评价研究的一种新方法,模型优化后的平均测试精度达86.49%,受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）与坐标围成的面积（AUC）达0.95,评价结果能够准确反映湖南武陵山片区生态旅游适宜性程度;(3)特征重要性排序结果显示土地利用类型影响最大,占比达到28.98%,人口密度、距景点距离和生物丰富度等因子的影响也较大,分别为16.34%、12.2%和10.65%,在进行生态旅游开发时应重点考虑这些因素;(4)生态旅游适宜性结果表明,高度适宜与适度适宜区占比高,研究...     

Climate change and its effects on runoff of Kaidu River,Xinjiang, China: A multiple time-scale analysis

This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Maj or findings are as follows： 1） Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, av- erage temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipitation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2） From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipitation showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we observed nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3） The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.     

Wavelet analysis and nonparametric test for climate change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang during 1959–2006

Using wavelet analysis, regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, this paper analyzed time-series (1959–2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Major findings are as follows: 1) In the 48-year study period, average annual temperature, annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends. 2) At the 16-year time scale, all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter. At the 8-year time scale, an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices. Incidentally, they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards. The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases. 3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale, which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001. 4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend, as represented by the rising average annual temperature, was remarkable, but the climate wetting trend, as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity, was not obvious.     

福建永安雷暴气候特征分析

通过统计福建省永安市1958—2007年逐日雷暴观测资料,找出雷暴发生时空分布、年际、月际和日变化特征。结果表明：永安市雷暴日50年平均68．12日,年际变化呈波动减少趋势,3—9月是雷暴发生的高发期,占全年雷暴的95．3％,月际雷暴发生次数呈单峰型特征,峰值出现在8月,16—17时是一天中发生雷暴的最高期,西南方向发生的雷暴略多于其它方向。     

普通Kriging法的参数设置及变异函数模型选择方法——以福建省一月均温空间内插为例

通过对普通Kriging法理论的深入理解,在ARCGIS和GS+软件平台上,以福建省一月均温为例,进行了深入的探索性空间数据分析,从数据的特征和规律出发探讨了普通Kriging插值法主要参数设置的依据和变异函数模型选择的方法。并用研究所获得的参数和变异函数模型对福建省一月均温的空间分布进行模拟,为合理的空间插值提供了一种较为清晰的思路。     

白银市气温年代际变化及均生函数预测模型的应用

讨论了白银市气温突变及年代际变化特征,并利用均生函数预测模型对白银市气温进行预测试验.在1997～2003年预测试验中,结果表明,均生函数预测模型可以较好地拟合气温的气候变化趋势,对季、年气温有较好的预测能力.     

Advance in Application of Regional Climate Models in China

Regional climate models have become the powerful tools for simulating regional climate and its change process and have been widely used in China. Using regional climate models, some research results have been obtained on the following aspects： 1） the numerical simulation of East Asian monsoon climate, including exceptional monsoon precipitation, summer precipitation distribution, East Asian circulation, multi-year climate average condition, summer rain belt and so on; 2） the simulation of arid climate of the western China, including thermal effect of the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau, the plateau precipitation in the Qilian Mountains; and the impacts of greenhouse effects （CO2 doubling） upon climate in the western China; and 3） the simulation of the climate effect of underlying surface changes, including the effect of soil on climate formation, the influence of terrain on precipitation, the effect of regional soil degradation on regional climate, the effect of various underlying surfaces on regional climate, the effect of land-sea contrast on the climate formulation, the influence of snow cover over the plateau regions on the regional climate, the effect of vegetation changes on the regional climate, etc. In the process of application of regional climate models, the preferences of the models are improved so that better simulation results are gotten. At last, some suggestions are made about the application of regional climate models in regional climate research in the future.     

1954-2014年云南省降水变化特征与潜在的旱涝区域响应

本文基于云南省1954-2014年32个气象站点逐月降水量资料,采用线性倾向估计法、径向基函数空间插值法、小波分析法、R/S分析法、Z指数法,分析了61年的云南省降水序列、旱涝情态的时间特征和空间格局。结果表明：在此期间除春季外,其余各季节降水量均呈现减少态势,年降水量总体以8.1 mm/10 a的速率减少,并且在未来一段时间内将保持减少趋势。多年平均降水量由云南省南部的西双版纳州向西北部的丽江市-迪庆州一带逐步减少;年降水量存在准2 a、准6 a、准8 a、准18 a、准28 a的周期性特征,且以准28 a为主周期;干旱化趋势增加速率较快（K_L=0.359）,印证了降水减少态势,洪涝化趋势减小速率相对较慢（K_I= -0.071）;旱灾易发地区主要涉及5个州,分别为迪庆州、德宏州、西双版纳州、红河州、楚雄州;洪涝易发地区涉及3州2市,依次为怒江州、大理州、文山州、普洱市及邵通市。     

Projections of wind changes for 21st century in China by three regional climate models

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models(RCMs),i.e.,RegCM3(the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model),PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)and CMM5(the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA,NCAR Mesoscale Model)to simulate the near-surface-layer winds(10 m above surface)all over China in the late 20th century.Results suggest that like global climate models(GCMs),these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country.However,RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed.In view of their merits,these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century.The results show that 1)summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China; 2)annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China; and 3)the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain.As a result,although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come,there are great uncertainties in projections,especially for wind speed,and these issues need to be further explored.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori-A conservation approach

Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy(MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC(Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of 1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.     

Sensitivity of penman-monteith reference crop evapotranspiration in Tao’er River Basin of northeastern China

A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration （ET0） to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao＇er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that： 1） Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air temperature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao＇er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air temperature. 2） Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3） Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4） Among all sensitivity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative humidity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.