GIS在洪涝灾害监测评估中的应用

中国国土辽阔,自然地理条件复杂,是一个自然灾害发生较频繁的国家,尤其是洪涝灾害。随着社会和国民经济的迅速发展,洪涝灾害所造成的损失越来越大。洪涝灾害监测评估是抗洪减灾中一个重要组成部分,也是电子政务的组成部分,GIS则是最主要的技术支撑之一。中国已建成了洪涝灾害监测评估的业务运行系统。本文介绍了洪涝灾害监测评估业务运行的基本要求、技术流程、基于GIS的基础背景数据库以及GIS在洪涝灾害监测评估中的发展现状和应用实例。     

SNOW COVER MONITORING BY REMOTE SENSING AND SNOWMELT RUNOFF CALCULATION IN THE UPPER HUANGHE RIVER BASIN

The upper Huanghe(Yellow) River basin is situated in the northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau of China.The melt-water from the snow-cover is main water supply for the rivers in the region during springtime and other arid regions of the northwestern China, and the hydrological conditions of the rivers are directly controlled by the snowmelt water in spring .So snowmelt runoff forecast has importance for hydropower,flood prevention and water resources utilize-tion.The application of remote sensing and Geographic Information System(GIS) techniques in snow cover monitoring and snowmelt runoff calculation in the upper Huanghe River basin are introduced amply in this paper.The key parame-ter-snow cover area can be computed by satellite images from multi-platform,multi-templral and multi-spectral.A clus-ter of snow-cover data can be yielded by means of the classification filter method.Meanwhile GIS will provide relevant information for obtaining the parameters and also for zoning .According to the typical samples extracting snow covered moun-tained in detail also.The runoff snowmelt models based on the snow-cover data from NOAA images and observation data of runoff,precipitation and air temperature have been satisfactorily used for predicting the inflow to the Longyangxia Reser-voir,which is located at lower end of snow cover region and is one of the largest reservoirs on the upper Huanghe River, during late March to early June.The result shows that remote sensing techniques combined with the ground meteorological and hydrological observation is of great potential in snowmelt runoff forecasting for a large river basin.With the develop-ment of remote sensing technique and the progress of the interpretation method,the forecast accuracy of snowmelt runoff will be improved in the near future .Large scale extent and few stations are two objective reality situations in Chian,so they should be considered in simulation and forecast.Apart from dividing ,the derivation of snow cover area from satellite images would decide the results of calculating runoff.Field investigation for selection of the learning samples of different snow patterns is basis for the classification.     

Impact of future sea level rise on flood and water logging disasters in lixiahe region

Lixiahe region is one of the susceptible area to flood and waterlogging disasters in China due to its low topographic relief and having difficulty in draining floodwater away. The condition will be more serious if sea level rises in the future. The estimated results by some scientists indicate that the sea level could rise probably 20–100 cm by 2050. However, what the effect will future sea level rise exerts on flood drainage and on flood or waterlogging disasters? A hydrological system model has been developed to study the problem in the lower reaches of the Sheyang River basin. Predicted results from the model show that, if sea level rises, drainage capacity of each drainage river will decrease obviously, and the water level will also rise. From the change of drainage capacity of drainage rivers the trends of flood and waterlogging disasters are analyzed in the paper if the severe flood that happened in the past meets with future sea level rise. Some countermeasures for disaster reduction and prevention against sea-level rise are put forward.     

IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON FLOOD AND WATER LOGGING DISASTERS IN LIXIAHE REGION

ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩＳＡＳＴＥＲＳＩＮＬＩＸＩＡＨＥＲＥＧＩＯＮ许朋柱ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩ...     

全国山洪灾害调查评价成果及规律初探

山洪灾害调查评价是1949年来水利行业最大的非工程措施项目,是规模最大的全国性防灾减灾基础信息普查工程,历时4年,涉及全国30个省305个市2138个防治县（区）,国土面积755万km²,人口近9亿。运用普查、详查、外业测量、分析计算等多种手段,掌握了中国山洪灾害防治区范围、人员分布、下垫面条件、社会经济、历史山洪灾害等基本情况,科学分析了山丘区小流域的暴雨洪水特性,评价了现状防洪能力,计算了预警指标,划定了危险区,为山洪灾害预警预报和应急救援决策提供了基础信息支撑。本文系统介绍了全国山洪灾害调查评价的核心要点,综述了调查评价成果,归纳了调查评价成果要素类型,揭示了全国山洪灾害防治区、人口、历史山洪灾害事件与预警能力的空间分布一致性,即山洪灾害各要素集中分布于青藏高原-四川盆地过渡带、川滇交界地区、黄土高原区、东部沿海地区及华北等地区,最后初步探讨了该成果的应用前景。全国山洪灾害调查评价成果将为中国山洪灾害监测预警预报体系建设及防灾减灾能力提升提供丰富的基础数据支撑。     

金沙江流域生态保护与建设决策支持系统

利用地理信息系统对生态保护与建设相关的地理信息进行采集、管理、分析,对政府部门的决策是一种有效的技术支撑。本文主要介绍“金沙江流域(云南部分)生态保护与建设决策支持系统”的体系结构设计和系统实现。     

利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星探测黄河流域水储量能力及极端气候发生的可能性

基于2004~2021年GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据反演黄河流域陆地水储量时空变化,并构建干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型,对黄河流域的极端气候现象进行分析研究。结果表明,2004~2021年黄河流域的陆地水储量以0.56 cm/a的速度减少,具有明显的季节周期性特征,在夏季和秋季呈盈余状态,春季和冬季呈亏损状态;干旱指数模型监测到期间黄河流域发生极度干旱事件22次、重度干旱事件37次,干旱事件范围涵盖整个黄河流域;洪水因子模型探测到黄河流域共发生洪水事件118次,多出现在夏季和秋季雨水较为丰沛的时候,期间黄河流域陆地水储量能力较弱,降雨量增大。利用GRACE/GRACE-FO重力卫星数据构建的干旱指数模型和洪水因子模型探测的气象结果与实际观测结果较为符合,能真实反映黄河流域发生的极端气候,可为极端气候研究提供有利工具。     

Evaluating Functions of Reservoirs′ Storage Capacities and Locations on Daily Peak Attenuation for Ganjiang River Basin Using Xinanjiang Model

Flooding is the most prevalent and costly natural disaster in the world and building reservoirs is one of the major structural measures for flood control and management. In this paper, a framework was proposed to evaluate functions of reservoirs′ locations and magnitudes on daily peak flow attenuation for a large basin of China, namely Ganjiang River Basin. In this study, the Xinanjiang model was adopted to simulate inflows of the reservoirs and flood hydrographs of all sub-catchments of the basin, and simple reservoir operation rules were established for calculating outflows of the reservoirs. Four reservoirs scenarios were established to analyze reservoirs′ locations on daily peak flow attenuation. The results showed that: 1) reservoirs attenuated the peak discharges for all simulated floods, when the flood storage capacities increase as new reservoirs were built, the peak discharge attenuation by reservoirs showed an increasing tendency both in absolute and relative measures; 2) reservoirs attenuated more peak discharge relatively for small floods than for large ones; 3) reservoirs reduced the peak discharge more efficiently for the floods with single peak or multi peaks with main peak occurred first; and 4) effect of upstream reservoirs on peak attenuation decreased from upper reaches to lower reaches; upstream and midstream reservoirs played important roles in decreasing peak discharge both at middle and lower reaches, and downstream reservoirs had less effect on large peak discharge attenuation at outlet of the basin. The proposed framework of evaluating functions of multiple reservoirs′ storage capacities and locations on peak attenuation is valuable for flood control planning and management at basin scale.     

基于SAR影像后向散射特性的中俄黑龙江流域洪水监测

黑龙江（又称为阿穆尔河）是中国和俄罗斯之间的国际界河,近年来洪水事件频发,给流域内中俄两国带来巨大的人口伤亡和经济损失,加强该流域的洪水监测是两国面临的共同紧迫需求。传统的光学遥感影像受制于洪水期间多云多雨的天气状况,难以及时获得无云影像。本文充分利用全天候雷达数据的优势,提出了一种基于哨兵1号（Sentinel-1）合成孔径雷达数据监测大面积区域洪水的方法。通过Gamma分布和高斯分布拟合SAR影像后向散射系数的概率密度分布,迭代后验概率差值,自动获得全局阈值来分割初始的水体,基于辅助数据细化去除了初始水体中与水体相似的误分类型,并由形态学操作后处理提高了提取的洪水的均匀性。结果表明：① 与传统的分割算法相比,本文提出的方法基于SAR影像后向散射系数的分布规律进行概率密度函数分段拟合,将全局统计划分为局部关系,显著地改善了常规分割算法在水体和非水体像素量级相差过大而表现不佳的情况;② 研究获得了2017—2020年逐年的洪水分布,结果总体精度在87.78%~94.89%之间,Kappa系数在0.76~0.89之间;③ 特别是对于大面积半干旱地区,本文结合了后向散射特性、地形和其他辅助信息的关系,使得能够有效地保留水体并去除与水体后向散射系数相似的地物;④ 结果显示黑龙江（阿穆尔河）中下游沿岸城市哈巴罗夫斯克、阿穆尔斯克等地区为经常性泛洪区域,洪水面积整体呈增加趋势。研究表明,基于雷达数据对洪水空间范围进行时间序列监测,可以为中俄黑龙江流域洪水发展动态监测提供科学支撑。     

Hydrologic/hydraulic modelling and flood risk analysis for the West Tiaoxi Catchment, Taihu Lake Region, China

Located in the headwater upstream of the Taihu Lake region, which is a densely populated and economically developed area in China, the West Tiaoxi River catchment is a frequently food-hit area due to its nature and climatic characteristics. During the last several decades, more than ten catastrophic floods happened in this area, causing huge economic losses. Since 1990, due to the increasing property vulnerability to flood hazard, the disasters were even more serious than before, and economic losses increased year by year. Thus, there have great importance to study flood behaviors, flood risks and their consequences. In this paper the hydrologic/hydraulic modelling is presented firstly. It is the method to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff and the flood propagation process. Secondly, the author gives the summary of the current study methods for flood risk assessment. The West Tiaoxi River catchment has a long history of the construction of polders and hydraulic engineering. Most farmlands have been protected against floods. So the combination method has been used to obtain the real risk area. The results have been obtained by using this method, which, the authors think, will be used in disaster preparedness, property insurance etc. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49671028) and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). Biography: XU Peng-zhu (1965 —), male, a native of Funing County of Jiangsu Province, associate researcher. His research interests include hydrology and water resources, numerical modelling, and application of GIS to hydrology.     

青岛市大沽河流域防汛信息系统

随着计算机信息技术在水利学科中应用的深入,以及数字水利、数字流域概念的提出,水利信息化已经成为这一行业领域的主要发展方向,各种流域模型在与地理信息系统平台结合后在数据的收集、存储,提取与处理的基础上都有了很大的发展,在水利工程的规划设计、防洪减灾、水量分配等方面有更为广泛的应用。青岛市大沽河流域内洪水有来势猛、峰高量大和暴涨暴落的特性,为满足防汛管理部门对洪水预测及相关信息快速浏览查询的需求,建立了青岛市大沽河流域防汛信息系统。该系统在MAPX地理信息系统开发软件、数据库存储技术和水流数学模型的支持下,实现了大沽河流域的地理信息、水文信息以及其他信息的综合管理,同时通过水流数学模型对一维和二维洪水进行预测预报,并根据用户的需要完成所需的查询与分析功能,以最直观简洁的方式向用户展示系统的输出结果。系统数据库的开发在满足系统要求的基础上完成了与青岛市雨情水情自动监测系统的对接,保证了水文数据的实时性、完整性和准确性。系统集成了一维非恒定流模型与平面二维非恒定流水流模型,可以根据大沽河流域降雨量计算干流的水位变化以及发生溃堤后洪水的淹没过程。应用表明,该系统界面友好、功能完善、性能良好,具有很强的实用性。     

福建东圳库区淹没及水土流失的3D-VRGIS构建与应用

本文应用VRGIS(Virtual Reality Geographical Information System)技术,建立水库工程水土流失三维可视化动态仿真模型,实现库区的空间信息可视化。以福建省东圳水库为研究对象,建立水土流失区域三维虚拟地理信息系统(3D-VRGIS),生成水土流失现状以及库区生态环境三维场景。并结合水土流失中水淹分析要素与三维空间的数据可视化技术,实现水土流失监测预报及其区域定位监控的可视化处理,为减少水土流失危害,提供可靠的信息资源。     

城市内涝灾害模拟与灾情风险评估研究进展

随着我国城市化建设进程的加快,城市水系和绿地面积不断缩减,地表硬质化现象持续加重,城市扩张所带来的问题正日益凸显,尤其是汛期强降雨导致的内涝灾害日渐成为亟需解决的城市顽疾。城市内涝灾害模拟及风险评估是推进城市内涝灾害管理,减少内涝灾害损失的有效途径。本文在综合近年来国内外相关研究的基础上,从城市内涝产生机理、模型及风险评估的角度对城市内涝的研究进行了详细阐述。在模型方面重点介绍了两种应用广泛的雨洪模拟模型:SCS和SWMM模型,对两者的优缺点进行了分析,同时简单归纳了其他雨洪模型。在灾情风险评估方法方面,重点介绍了基于历史灾情数理统计、遥感图像和GIS技术耦合分析和基于指标体系评估等的风险评估方法,并对比分析了各自的优缺点及适用范围。最后对城市内涝模型及风险评估的未来发展方向进行了展望,提出集成多模型耦合的城市雨洪模拟模型以及多学科联合的灾害风险评估研究将成为今后的发展趋势。     

湖南省山丘区小流域山洪灾害危险性评价

本文采用信息量模型法研究湖南省山丘区小流域山洪灾害的危险性程度。信息量模型的最大意义是能从影响山洪灾害发生的众多因素中找到“最佳因素组合”。基于湖南省1955-2015年近60年的历史山洪灾害数据,结合地形、下垫面以及降雨条件,利用信息量模型按危险性程度高低划分出湖南省山丘区山洪灾害危险性的分布情况。研究结果表明,湖南省山丘区山洪灾害容易发生在坡度小于10°,高程小于100 m,起伏度小于30 m,土地覆被为人工表面,土壤类型为粘土以及降雨量在1584.3~1662.0 mm之间的区域。湖南省山丘区危险等级较高的地级市有永州市、郴州市、株洲市、岳阳市、娄底市以及长沙东部山区,经过混淆矩阵验证后,通过信息量方法建立的山洪灾害危险性评价模型准确率为75.36%,基本可信。     

THE FLOOD OF THE NENJIANG RIVER AND THE SONGHUA RIVER IN 1998 AND THE COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE RIVER BASINS

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基于元胞自动机模型的河道汇流过程模拟

对河道汇流过程进行模拟可为洪水灾害预警预报提供参考。利用水力水文学方法能很好地模拟河道汇流过程,但需要输入的参数多,运算过程复杂,对数据精度要求高,而且在无资料区流域无法确定河道上断面流量情况下,该方法具有一定局限性。本文将元胞自动机模型与水文模型相结合,构建了河道汇流过程中的元胞自动机模型和产流汇流规则。通过建立河道坡面拓扑关系,利用SCS-CN（Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number）模型逐个计算河道元胞上的坡面入流,并利用曼宁方程模拟河道汇流过程,最后在ArcEngine平台下进行二次开发,实现了河道汇流可视化。本文以厦门市茂林溪流域为研究区,对1997年5月6日至7日的一场降雨进行了模拟。将本文模拟结果与该流域其他学者的研究进行了对比分析,结果表明在输入数据与水文模型参数相同的情况下,本文不仅模拟出每次降雨间隔产生的较小洪峰,并且整场降雨产生的最大洪峰流量精度与时间精度均提高了5倍,可以更准确地模拟河道汇流过程,适用于河道汇流可视化,该模拟可以为洪水灾害预警预报提供一定参考。     

基于WebGIS的城市财产保险洪灾损失评估研究

WebGIS是Internet技术与GIS技术相结合的产物。本项研究在WebGIS支持下,从洪涝灾害的成灾机理出发,针对保险公司对具体受灾体理赔的需求,提出了每个投保户洪灾损失率的计算方法,建立起基于WebGIS的城市财产保险洪涝灾害损失评估模型。结合广东省深圳城市洪灾数据进行模型验证。验证结果表明,WebGIS可以快速方便地进行投保户洪涝灾害损失评估,并对于各个投保户均能得到较好的精度。     

九寨沟旅游景观资源保护和规划中GIS的应用

本文通过介绍九寨沟灾害预测、岩溶管道空间分析、水资源预测模型的建立与应用 ,阐述地理信息系统在九寨沟旅游资源保护和规划中应用的重要意义.     

基于AO的洪水灾害风险分析模型设计与构建

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