某一级公路路基填土膨胀性试验

通过对某一级公路路基填土的天然含水量、液限、塑限、颗粒组成、矿物成分、自由膨胀率、胀缩总率等试验研究,运用塑性图,并综合各项指标对路基填土的膨胀性做了评价。结果认为,此路基填土为高液限和塑限的淤泥质软土,天然状态下具有弱膨胀性。通过对路基填土的击实试验和承载比试验表明,填土压实之后具有一定的膨胀性,在含水量变化差异性影响下的胀缩变形可能导致路基开裂。     

湖北省阳新县基岩滑坡变形因子及其破坏模式

斜坡变形受众多因子综合控制, 不同因子的敏感性与作用规律在变形过程中差异明显。以湖北省阳新县顺层基岩滑坡为研究对象, 通过正交试验结合离散元数值模拟的方法, 研究多个影响因子对应顺层滑坡变形的敏感性并确立主导因素, 随后基于响应面拟合主导因素与滑坡不同部位变形程度间的量化关系, 揭示主导因素交互作用对滑坡变形破坏模式的影响规律。结果表明, 在研究区内坡度与岩层倾角分别为影响顺层滑坡变形的主导与次主导因素, 滑坡的变形破坏模式受控于二者的交互作用。在中-陡倾顺层滑坡中, 当坡度小于岩层倾角时, 滑坡变形主要集中在坡顶, 且变形程度随岩层倾角的增加而增大, 表现出滑移-弯曲的变形破坏模式; 在缓倾顺层滑坡中, 当坡度大于岩层倾角时, 滑坡坡脚位移较坡顶显著, 其坡脚变形程度随坡度的增加而增大, 以滑移-拉裂变形为主。研究成果可为该类滑坡的防治工作提供参考。      

海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响评价

【目的】阐述海平面上升对我国沿海地区影响机理和当前11个沿海地区发展脆弱性概况,为进一步研究和地区发展政策制定提供科学依据。【方法】在运用"源―路径―受体―影响"(SPRC)模型分析海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响机理的基础上,从暴露性、敏感性、适应性等3个方面构建海平面上升对沿海地区发展脆弱性影响评价指标体系,并且尝试运用多层次模糊优选、组合确定权重评价方法,对沿海地区发展脆弱性等级进行划分。【结果与结论】从2006至2016年,我国沿海地区发展脆弱性等级水平整体呈上升趋势,而从脆弱性等级空间分布情况来看,沿海地区发展脆弱性水平整体呈现出南、中部高,北部低特点。     

矿产预测中的不确定性评估方法与应用——以广西大瑶山矿区为例

由于矿床类型的多样性,矿床成因的复杂性,控矿因素的隐蔽性和找矿信息的多解性,成矿预测结果具有不确定性,并常常因人而异[1]。矿产预测评价是由多个阶段组成的复杂系统工程,每个环节都会产生不确定性,并且不确定性还会传播积累,致使技术评价的不确定性,最终会导致经济评价的不确定性。在找矿难度越来越大,矿业经济风险越来越突出的今天,对矿产预测评价中的不确定性加强认识,并尝试研究富有成效的不确定性评估方法已日显重要,它也是从根本上改进现行矿产预测评价方法的出路之一。本文先对矿产预测评价的特点作了简要说明,对技术评价的不确定性作了系统总结,并基于模糊集值统计的不确定性信息处理方法,提出了矿产预测中不确定性的一般评估方法,最后,以广西大瑶山西侧铜、铅、锌矿的预测评价为背景,对不确定性的评估方法作了应用分析。     

陕南膨胀土判别与分类的模糊综合评判

用模糊数学方法,选用与膨胀土胀缩特性有关的指标:粘粒含量(m_(0.005))、液限(W_L)、液性指数(I_L)、线缩率(e_u)、自由膨胀率(δ_(ef)),对陕南地区膨胀土进行了模糊综合评判。其结果可分为3类:一类是灰白、灰绿色强膨胀潜势膨胀土;二类是三级以上阶地上黄褐-棕红色的中等膨胀潜势的膨胀土;三类是二级阶地上褐黄-黄褐色弱膨胀潜势的膨胀土。     

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷北斜坡玛131井区块三叠系百口泉组储层敏感性评价

玛湖凹陷斜坡区三叠系百口泉组为低孔低渗砂砾岩储层,储层敏感性对储集性能影响较大,因此进行储层敏感性研究对于防止储层损害和制定合理的开发方案具有重要意义。在分析研究区百口泉组砂砾岩储层基本特征基础上,参照碎屑岩储层评价标准,采用敏感性流动实验对百口泉组扇三角洲砂砾岩储层敏感性进行了研究。结果表明:研究区百口泉组黏土矿物类型以伊/蒙混层为主(占38.74%),其次为绿泥石(占29.46%)、高岭石(占21.96%)和伊利石(占9.83%);敏感性流动实验表明百口泉组储层具有中等偏强盐敏、中等偏弱水敏、弱速敏、弱碱敏的特征;影响储层敏感性的主要原因是储层中黏土矿物类型以及储层孔喉结构。通过研究结果建议油气勘探开发施工过程中应重点防止盐敏、水敏,有针对性地采取措施保护储层。      

地动噪声RMS值计算方法的适用性及误差概率分析

对比两种计算RMS值的方法，结合误差概率统计给出结果的误差概率分布。在使用有限脉冲响应（FIR）带通滤波器进行滤波并计算RMS值的过程中，滤波器窗口函数和阶数是影响计算结果误差的主要因素，其中阶数的作用更大。通过计算功率谱密度（PSD）反算RMS值的误差主要受pwelch函数的窗口函数类型、窗口长度及重叠率等参数影响，其中窗口长度作用更大。从同等误差水平的概率分布看，在合理设置参数的前提下，使用PSD反算RMS值的方法更优。     

基于C、φ值的滑坡稳定性及敏感性分析

滑带抗剪强度参数(C、φ值)是影响滑坡体稳定性的主要因素,本文以某滑坡为例,根据岩土物理力学性质指标的试验结果以及滑坡稳定性反演分析结果,采用传递系数法,分不同的工况条件进行滑坡稳定性计算。以C、φ值作敏感性分析,研究其对滑坡稳定性的影响,为下步防治提供依据。     

模糊综合评判法在多层气层测试井产能劈分中的应用

多层测试井的产能劈分是油气藏勘探开发中的一个关键问题。影响产能的储层参数很多,不同的物性参数对储层产能影响的大小不同;模糊系统理论将综合评价的定性问题转化为定量问题,层次分析法将不同因素按照相关性大小计算其权值。利用综合评价系数对多层试气中的小层进行综合评判和优选,进而对产能进行合理劈分。给出了评价因素对等级区间隶属度的求取方法以及不同因素之间相对权值的计算方法。通过实例给出了模糊综合评判法进行产能劈分的原理和具体步骤,进一步验证了该方法在鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格气田的应用效果。     

甘肃省县域经济差异时空分异及影响因子研究

不同因子对区域经济差异的影响一直是国内外学者关注的重点及热点问题,探究县域经济时间过程演变和空间格局分异的主导影响因子,科学揭示各因子的作用机制,将为区域经济发展战略的制定提供重要指导依据。本文以甘肃省县域为研究单元,利用空间化表达、标准差椭圆分析县域经济空间分异现象,借助多元线性逐步回归和地理探测器对县域经济时空分异影响因素进行探讨。研究结果表明：① 甘肃省县域经济之间的总体差异明显,随时间波动较大;② 县域经济空间分布重心不稳定,变动较大;③ 财政收入、城镇化率和工业产业比重是主导的时间影响因子;④ 铁路密度、公路密度、河流密度是甘肃省县域经济空间分异的主要地理因子,且因子之间的交互作用强于单因子对经济空间分异的作用。在协调县域经济发展过程中,应根据主要影响因素精准实施发展策略,合理利用因子之间的交互作用,加快经济协调发展。     

Dynamic changes in lakes in the Hoh Xil region before and after the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake

Zonag, Kusai, Hedin Noel and Yanhu Lakes are independent inland lakes in the Hoh Xil region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In September2011, Zonag Lake burst after the water level had increased for many years. Floods flowed through Kusai and Hedin Noel Lakes into Yanhu Lake; since then, the four small endorheic catchments merged into one larger catchment. This hydrological process caused the rapid shrinkage of Zonag Lake and continuous expansion of Yanhu Lake. In this study,based on satellite images, meteorological data and field investigations, we examined the dynamic changes in the four lakes and analyzed the influencing factors. The results showed that before 2011, the trends in the four lake areas were similar and displayed several stages. The change in the area of Zonag Lake corresponded well to the change in annual precipitation(AP), but the magnitude of the change was less than that of a non-glacier-fed lake. Although increased precipitation was the dominant factor that caused Zonag Lake to expand, increased glacier melting and permafrost thawing due to climate warming also had significant effects. After the 2011 outburst of Zonag Lake, due to the increasing AP and accelerating glacier melting, the increases in water volume of the three lakes were absorbed by Yanhu Lake, and Yanhu Lake expanded considerably. According to the rapid growth rates in water level and lake area, Yanhu Lake is likely to burst in 1-2 years.     

Swelling characteristics of soils derived from black shales heightened by cations in Northern Chongqing,China

Black shale is widely distributed in southern and western China. The swelling and breakdown characteristics of black shale are important physicomechanical properties in engineering activities. Aqueous solutions with different compositions exert various influences on the swelling characteristic of black shale because of the complexity of its composition. Soils derived from black shale are most commonly developed on black shales with bedded horizons that generally have cutting and weathering profiles. This paper reports an axial free swelling study for soils derived from black shales and developed in the Lower Cambrian black shales in Chengkou County, Chongqing Municipality, Southwest China. To discuss the swelling characteristics of black shale under the influence of cations, an axial free swelling test was conducted on black shale samples while considering the initial water content, weathering stage of black shale, and different cationic solutions with various concentrations. Results showed that the swelling deformation curve of black shale could be divided into three phases: acceleration, deceleration, and stability. The axial swelling ratio eventually decreased with increasing water content, and the axial free swelling rate changed with the free expansion model of the exponential relationship. Under a constant initial water content, the axial swelling rate increased with the intensity of black shale weathering in the same immersion solution. When different types of immersion solutions were used, the cationic price was high and the axial swelling rate increased with rising cation valence. The changes in the swelling ratio were significant at a valence of one or two. The results of this study provide further understanding of the engineering geological characteristics of black shale and the geological hazards caused by the swelling characteristics of black shale.     

Spatial Impact of High-speed Railway on the Urban Scale:An Empirical Analysis from Northeast China

The emergence of rapid transit, primarily represented by high-speed railway(HSR), while reshaping the regional traffic patterns, leads to the reconstruction and redistribution of population and industry. This leads to either shrinkage or expansion of urban scale. However, research on the influence mechanisms of the urban scale has mostly concentrated on historical, economic and social factors. The influence of traffic factors is rarely mentioned in current research. Therefore, this study examines Northeast China, where the change in urban scale is most significant, to discuss the spatial impact of high-speed railway on the urban scale. This is of great significance in terms of enriching current understanding of the factors affecting the urban scale. The results included the following: 1) The high-speed railway produced considerable space-time convergence effects, however, simultaneously aggravated the imbalance in traffic development in Northeast China. The increase in accessibility presents attenuation characteristics from the high-speed railway. Additionally, the high-speed railway has changed the mode of cooperation between cities in the provinces, inter-regional and inter-provincial cooperation models gradually become popular. 2) The change rate of accessibility and the urban scale present significant spatial coupling phenomena, with the change rate of the Harbin-Dalian trunk lines and its surroundings being more significant. 3) There are predominantly four modes of the influence of high-speed railway on the urban scale, which make difference city present expansion or shrinkage.     

Volume expansion rates of seismic landslides and influencing factors: A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

When a big landside occurs, source material can change into loose deposit during its runout, causing the increase of the total landslide volume to some extent. Such changes can influence the quantification of seismic landslides. The objective of this paper was to study the volume expansion rate of landslides based on the data of 1417 co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9 earthquake. We also analyzed the correlations between this rate and landslide geometric parameters(volume, height(H), length-width ratio(L/W), length-height ratio(L/H)), and environmental factors(peak ground acceleration(PGA), lithology, slope angle and aspect). The results show that the total source volume of the 1417 landslides is 1248 million m3, while the total volume of the deposit is 1501 million m3, which means the total volume expanding rate(Et) is 20.3% with the average volume expansion rate(Ea) 22.6%. The analysis indicates that volume expansion rate generally decreases with the increasing volume and height of landslides, while becoming larger with increasing L/H and L/W. Besides, the volume expansion rate is closely related to the landslide type and the volume scale of landslides. This study analyses volume change of co-seismic landslides deeply, permitting to help the correct quantification of the source volume and deposit volume of seismic landslide and a useful reference for the correct quantification of landslide volume.     

Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the central Himalayas since 1990

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.     

Effects of soil shrinkage in permanent gullies formation: The case of Benggang erosion in the granite area of southern China

Soil shrinkage is an important factor in slope destabilization in granitic areas, which is also one of the most important conditions for the formation of permanent gullies. This study explored the effect of soil shrinkage on permanent gullies, and Benggang erosion in granitic areas in southeastern China was used as an example. Three types of Benggang in granitic area were selected to examine the soil shrinkage of three soil layers(the lateritic, transitional and sandy layers) and their effect on the development of Benggang erosion was studied. The results show that the maximum values of COLEH and COLEV(coefficient of linear extensibility in horizontal and vertical directions, respectively) are 3.09% and 1.60% in the laterite layers, 2.71% and 2.13% in transition layers, and 1.10% and 1.82% in sandy layers, indicating that the shrinkage potential of the soil layers exhibits the following order, from highest to lowest: the laterite layer, transition layer, and sandy layer. With a decreasing volumetric water content, the linear shrinkage ratio increases gradually and eventually stabilizes, and in the laterite, transition and sandy layers, the average values of the maximum linear shrinkage are 1.50%, 2.09%, and 1.74%, respectively. Axial shrinkage is most obvious in the transition layers, in which the volume change in the form of subsidence is greater than that in other layers. The soil shrinkage curves fit the trilinear model(R20.9), and the soil shrinkage characteristic curves were divided into structural, basic, and residual sections. The correlation analysis shows that the soil shrinkage rate is positively correlated with clay and Fe_2 O_3 content and negatively correlated with sand content. Clay and sand contents are the most important factors influencing soil shrinkage. Soil oxides can influence soil shrinkage by affecting the particle composition of the soil, so soil shrinkage is closely related to soil clay minerals. Our findings can provide a theoretical basis for revealing the mechanism of Benggang erosion and its control.     

城市地铁站点商业价值数字化评价方法

地铁站点商业价值是地铁改变城市交通方式基础上城市商业业态价值的体现,对其科学和量化的评价是地铁站点建设重要的方面。本文首先对地铁站点商业价值的评价从商业等级与商业规模两个方面进行了体系构建,然后以广州地铁八号线为研究对象基于此体系进行了商业价值的评估。在地铁站点商业等级评价中,选取5个空间因子与2个非空间因子进行多因子评价。在进行空间因子评价中的商圈因子分析时,基于市级和区级商圈周边商业用地基准地价具有一致性的距离衰减特征,创新性的构建了商业地价的空间衰减函数,并据此将这一衰减函数转换为商圈距离衰减因子评价值的函数与量化定义,有效解决专家赋值存在的主观性问题。以此方法对八号线地铁站点商业等级进行评价,在完成空间因子评价以及非空间因子校核后,发现上下九-文化公园区域的商业等级最高,次一级则分布在荔湾区中部。对于商业规模的评价,则以商业建筑面积需求平衡方法,基于地铁站点服务半径内人口规模的评估以预测潜在的商业人口数量,并据此估算未来的商业建筑面积需求。以此方法,对地铁八号线以陈家祠站为例对该站点进行了商业建筑面积需求的预测。本研究提出了基于地价距离衰减与量化评价的因子评价方法完善的相关的方法体系,以数字化模型构建商业等级与商业规模的量化评价提高了地铁站点商业价值评估方法的合理性和科学性。     

A High Precision Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Flood Disaster Loss Based on Improved Genetic Programming

Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming （GP） solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss （EGFD） on the basis of improved genetic programming （IGP） is presented （IGP-EGFD）. The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.     

Using modified Soil Conservation Service curve number method to simulate the role of forest in flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River in China

To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding, the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River (URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario, namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35 km² is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75 km² bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest, the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically, flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event, and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover, the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods, respectively. The results suggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR, the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.     

论广西红粘土的胀缩性能

文章从由碳酸盐岩溶余堆积形成的红粘土引起产生的地裂、房裂等不良工程地质现象入手,以大量的实验资料为基础,指出广西红粘土的胶粒含量,可塑性指标高,具有较强的吸附能力和较强的亲水性,自由膨胀率接近或等于27%.论述了红粘土液限和塑限值在塑性图上的分布规律与一般膨胀土的分布规律相吻合,这种粘土应属于弱至中等级膨胀性粘土,并以收缩变形为其主要特征.