中国土地利用变化遥感研究的回顾与展望——基于陈述彭学术思想的引领

20世纪80年代以来中国社会经济快速发展带来的工业化、城市化正深刻影响着中国土地利用空间格局并影响到区域和国家生态与环境状况。在陈述彭先生指导下,1992年以来中国科学院建立起了完整的土地利用/覆盖变化遥感监测与数据分析技术路线,以及独特的分类体系和动态区划体系,奠定了中国LUCC信息平台的基础。本文在系统回顾陈述彭学术思想指导中国LUCC研究的基础上,面向国家需求与国际科技前沿梳理了我国LUCC研究的核心科学问题,并总结了中国科学院团队在最近20年LUCC研究取得的成果,包括土地利用/覆盖动态时空表征与分析模型、土地利用/覆盖变化过程及驱动机制、基于大数据和云计算的土地利用/覆盖变化探测方法、城市土地利用变化的区域气候/生态效应、气候变化与土地利用变化对农田生态系统的影响、林业活动的区域气候/生态效应,在此基础上对未来LUCC研究的前景进行了展望。     

Land Use Change During 1960-2000 Period and its Eco-environmental Effects in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River： a Case Study in Yiliang County, Yunnan, China

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is a focus of the research of global environmental changes.The middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River,which are the most ecologically fragile mountainous area in China as well as one of the areas in China with most notable LUCC, have been on the Chinese Government‘s list of priority areas for ecological restoration. This paper is to reveal the trend of LUCC and the ecological degradation arising from it, and to provide a basis for the future sustainable use of land resources in the region based on a detailed analysis of Yiliang County. Based on the county‘s land use/cover maps in 1960, 1980 and 2000 drawn with the aid of aerial photograph interpretation, field investigation and GIS based spatial-temporal data analysis, LUCC during 1960-2000 period and the ecological degradation arising from it were analyzed. Using the Markv model, the paper brings out a forecast of what the county‘s LUCC would be like if the county‘s current land use continues, as well as the reasons and countermeasures for restoring degraded ecosystems.     

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARST MOUNTAINOUS AREA——A Case Study of Du＇an Yao Autonomous County in Guangxi

Ecological security is the main task and applied field of present geography, resources and environment sciences and ecology. Ecological security evaluation will efficiently promote ecological security and environmental construction in regional land use. In this thesis, the authors put forward the index system of ecological security evaluation in karst mountainous area on three aspects, the pressure of resources and eco-environment, the quality of resources and eco-environment, and the ability of environmental protection and ecological improvement. Using the evaluation method with single index, based on the case study ofDu‘an Yao Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the system ofsynthetic regionalization ofecological agricultural economy was formed, which includes three regions, south region with basic security and synthetic agricultural development, east region with critical security and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry balanced development, mid-west and south region with ecological insecurity and compounded agriculture and forestry management. Meanwhile, for these regions, the countermeasures of sustainable agricultural development were pointed out, which provide the basis and example for ecological regulation and control of sustainable agricultural development in counties of karst mountainous area.     

ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN KARST MOUNTAINOUS AREA—A Case Study of Du'an Yao Autonomous County in Guangxi

Ecological security is the main task and applied ficld of present geography, resources and environment sciences and ecology. Ecological security evaluation will efficiently promote ecological security and environmental construction in regional land use. In this thesis, the authors put forward the index system of ecological security evaluation in karst mountainous area on three aspects, the pressure of resources and eco-environment, the quality of resources and eco-environment, and the ability of environmental protection and ecological improvement. Using the evaluation method with single index, based on the case study of Du'an Yao Autonomous County of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the system of synthetic regionalization of ecological agricultural economy was formed, which includes three regions, south region with basic security and synthetic agricultural development, east region with critical security and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry balanced development, mid-west and south region with eco     

环长株潭城市群湿地生态安全研究

本文选取环长株潭城市群为研究区域,以Landsat TM影像解译后的土地利用数据、MODIS影像计算的植被指数,以及人口、经济和气候数据等为数据源,基于“压力-状态-响应”框架模型构建湿地生态安全评价指标体系对该区域2000-2010年湿地生态安全进行综合评价。结果表明：（1）环长株潭城市群2000、2005、2010年湿地生态安全指数均值分别为0.7268、0.7151和0.7196,湿地生态安全状态“良好”,生态安全等级程度为“较安全”。（2）环长株潭城市群区域差异性明显,一级湿地生态安全区主要分布在洞庭湖周边,二级湿地生态安全区沿主要河流分布,三级湿地生态安全区主要分布在2个或3个城市之间的交界区域。（3)研究期间环长株潭城市群湿地面积变化明显,该区域湿地总面积逐年减少;森林沼泽、草本沼泽、湖泊、河流、水田的斑块分维数均呈增加趋势;水库/坑塘、河流破碎度指数明显高于其他景观类型,湿地生态系统服务价值总体减少。在此基础上,从土地利用变化与转型、湿地景观结构与功能、自然因素等方面对影响该区域湿地生态安全的主要驱动因子进行了分析。结果表明,人类社会经济活动直接作用于湿地生态环境,通过改变区域景观和土地利用结构使湿地面积发生变化,直接影响湿地生态安全。气温、降水等气候因素通过改变水热状况和植被覆盖,间接影响湿地生态安全。针对该区域湿地生态安全存在的问题,建议在发展过程中正确处理好经济与生态环境之间的关系,尽可能减少人类活动对湿地生态环境的干扰。     

Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation of Land use and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,China

Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns, and the land use/cover change(LUCC) can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment. Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area, four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015. The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS) model, and the geographically weighted regression(GWR) model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI) and socio-economic driving forces. Results showed that: 1) From 2005 to 2015, the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km~2) mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km~2). The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886, indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA. 2) Gross domestic production(GDP) and population density(POP) showed a positive effect on the ERI, and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP. The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend, and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%, with the largest increase. 3) Under different developmental scenarios, the land use and ecological risk patterns varied. The construction land is increased by 5.76%, 7.41%, 5.25% and 6.06%, respectively. And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%, 15.06%, 11.89%,and 12.94%, correspondingly. In Scenario D, the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection. This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types, grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas, and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future.     

LAND COVER CHANGES AND LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT IN LOWER REACHES OF TARIM RIVER IN CHINA

The Tarim River Basin, located in the typical arid region, is one of the key regions of LUCC research in China and plays an important role in maintaining the sustainable development of the westem China. In recent years, the ecological environment of the Tarim River Basin has degraded greatly. In the lower reaches, in particular,the riverbed has been dried up for more than 20 years, which accelerated the desertification and has been a great threat to people‘s lives. Taking the section of the Tarim River between Qiala Lake and Taitema Lake as a typical region, an investigation on land cover changes was carried out with the support of remote sensing information of 1988 and 2000 respectively. The changes of land cover in this region were obtained: 1) Cropland tended to increase. 2)Urban or Built-up Area in 2000 was 324.4ha more than that in 1988.3) Waters expanded by 3476.51ha. 4) Woodland and Grassland decreased, while Barren Land increased by 3824.9ha. The total amount of land use/land cover change between 1988 and 2000 is small, which is only 0.355% of the total area. It shows that the developmental pace of the lower reaches of the Tarim River is relative slow. Based on these results, the authors assessed the landscape dynamics of this region and pointed out that the degree of desertification was strengthened and the landscape dominated by sand land was further characterized by salt desert.     

肥城市土地生态系统安全评价研究

在分析土地生态系统安全内涵的基础上,以肥城市为研究区域,选取24个指标构建土地生态系统安全评价指标体系,采用熵值法、综合指数法和GIS相结合的方法,对肥城市2000—2013年的土地生态系统安全状况进行分析。研究结果表明:14年来,肥城市土地生态系统安全状况处于波动状态,土地生态系统安全面临着诸多压力。最后提出了提高土地生态系统安全状况的对策建议。     

我国北方农牧交错带西段退耕对土壤保持功能影响研究

退耕还林（草）等生态工程对区域用地结构及生态系统服务功能产生了重要影响。本研究基于RUSLE模型,并辅以遥感监测与GIS空间分析方法,对北方农牧交错带西段2000-2015年退耕状况及其引起的土壤保持功能变化分3个时段（2000-2005年、2005-2010年及2010-2015年）进行了探究。结果表明：北方农牧交错带西段地区2000-2015年耕地面积净减少1663.83 km²,以转为林地、草地、建设用地为主,其中耕地转林、草地净减少面积为1113.64 km²,草地和未利用地是新增耕地的主要来源;15年间土壤保持功能提升显著,退耕还林（草）工程的实施使土壤保持量增加了56.50×10⁴ t,2005-2010年由退耕所带来的土壤保持增加量在3段时期中最高;不同坡度等级的生态退耕引起的土壤保持增加量差别较大,总体随着坡度升高呈下降趋势,但在25°以上的陡坡耕地由退耕还林（草）带来的土壤保持效益又有所升高。研究对于评估北方农牧交错带西段地区实施退耕还林（草）等工程的生态效益具有重要意义,并能为区域生态保护与修复工程的建设规划提供科学依据。     

基于改进Markov-CA模型的黄土高原土地利用多情景模拟

土地利用/覆被的时空变化研究能为区域生态环境恢复和生态系统集成管理提供科学支持。集成Logistic回归模型、改进的Markov与FLUS模型模拟黄土高原2020—2050年3种典型情景土地利用变化。发现各情景土地利用面积变化及空间置换转移主要集中在农用地、草地和城镇用地;历史趋势延续情景下农用地减少15 205 km²,草地、城镇用地分别增加2742 km²和16 007 km²;生态保育管护情景中草地增加7076 km²,林草用地增长存在权衡关系（r_{主要林地-草地}=-0.66）,在典型区域的生态恢复管理中应加以重视;城镇发展建设情景中农用地减少20 256 km²,城镇用地增加22 032 km²,变化均达到极值,其中,南部城镇扩张与农用地减少存在强权衡关系（r_{农用地-城镇用地}=-1）。改进的Markov-FLUS模型适用于黄土高原地区的土地利用模拟,情景分析可有效揭示区域生态保护与城镇扩张的阈值变化,为区域土地利用政策权衡管理和水土保育提供科学依据。     

Spatial-temporal pattern and population driving force of land use change in Liupan Mountains region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains is located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, which forms an important dividing line between landforms and bio-geographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountains region has suffered tremendous ecological damages over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. In this paper, datasets of land use between 1990 and 2000 were obtained from Landsat TM imagery, and then spatial models were used to characterize landscape conditions. Also, the relationship between the population density and land use/cover change （LUCC） was analyzed. Results indicate that cropland, forestland, and urban areas have increased by 44,186ha, 9001ha and 1550ha, respectively while the grassland area has appreciably decreased by 54,025ha in the study period. The decrease in grassland was most notable. Of the grassland lost, 49.4% was converted into cropland. The largest annual land conversion rate in the study area was less than 2%. These changes are attributed to industrial and agricultural development and population growth. To improve the eco-economic conditions in the study region, population control, urbanization and development of an ecological friendly agriculture were suggested.     

APPLICATION OF FUZZY OPTIMIZATION MODEL IN ECOLOGICAL SECURITY PRE-WARNING

1INTRODUCTIONAs the basis of the human existence and sustainable de-velopment, the ecological security has become a prob-lem increasingly inviting the attention of the whole so-cietyand the government. Ecological security pre-warn-ing is a kind of early i…     

区域土地利用变化的多情景分析——以内蒙古自治区太仆寺旗为例

区域土地利用变化的情景分析涉及到影响土地利用变化的诸多因素,引起了目前学术界的广泛关注与重视。论文利用系统动力学模型与CLUE-S模型的理论框架,构建了太仆寺旗土地利用变化系统动力学模型及其时空变化模拟模型,通过对太仆寺旗土地利用变化的情景设计,实现了土地利用变化的多情景分析。研究表明,太仆寺旗在人口增长、经济发展与农牧业生产发展等宏观背景下,各种土地利用类型在诸驱动因子的综合作用下处于一个动态变化过程之中。不同的模式下,各用地类型间的竞争导致区域土地利用演替的差异较大,但参考模式、生态模式与经济模式的设计及其模拟出的土地利用变化情景,都显示出太仆寺旗县城东北部和西北部的未利用土地的集中分布区将成为未来近20年时间内土地利用变化的敏感地带。     

The dynamics of landscape-scale ecological connectivity based on least-cost model in Dongshan Island,China

As a hot topic in Landscape Ecology study, ecological connectivity is an important indicator for regional land sustainable use and biological protection. This paper conducted a systematic assessment of ecological connectivity using remote sensing images of Dongshan Island in 1994, 2003 and 2011. Based on least-cost modelling, the method takes into consideration the type of barrier, the distance impact, and the adjacent land use types to obtain the Barrier Effect Index (BEI) and Ecological Connectivity Index (ECI). The application of this method to Dongshan Island showed the ecological connectivity index (ECI) was low in 1994, improved in 2003, and decreased significantly in 2011. The results of the dynamic analysis of landscape structure showed farmland and roads were the main landscape classes that caused the low observed ECI in 1994 and 2003; these tended to divide the landscape and cause fragmentation. Construction land and roads were the main landscape classes resulting in low ECI in 2011, while forest and grassland had a high ECI. Trajectory analysis showed ECI tended to decrease in the low mountain forest zone of the northwestern and southeastern parts of Dongshan Island as well as in the coastal protection forest area. The areas where ECI became high were located in the northeastern part of Dongshan Island where cities and towns are concentrated with high human populations. Therefore, rapid urbanization has been the most important factor driving changes in landscape structure and patterns during the last 17 years on Dongshan Island. The approach not only assists us in revealing the driving mechanism of landscape dynamics from another aspect, but also can assess the impacts of regional and urban plans on landscape structure and function.     

近20年黄土高原土地利用/覆被变化特征分析

本文根据黄土高原地区20世纪80年代末、2000年、2008年3期土地利用/覆被空间数据集,计算2个时段（20世纪80年代末-2000年,2000-2008年）土地利用/覆被转类方向及其幅度、土地利用/覆被转类指数、土地利用/覆被状况指数及其变化率,分析黄土高原地区自20世纪80年代末以来土地利用/覆被时空变化特征以及宏观生态状况的变化趋势。结果显示：黄土高原地区近20年来平均土地利用/覆被状况指数为24.07,其中土石山区生态系统综合功能最好,其次为河谷平原区,最差的为农灌区。20世纪80年代末-2000年,黄土高原地区主要土地利用/覆被转类是森林和草地转为耕地,生态级别由高级向低级转移,2000-2008年主要土地利用/覆被转类是耕地转为林地和草地,低覆盖草地转为中高覆盖草地,生态级别由低级向高级转移。近20年来黄土高原地区地覆被状况指数变化以及土地利用/覆被转类指数表明,该区域的宏观生态状况总体上经历了转差（20世纪80年代末-2000年土地利用/覆被转类指数为-1.08）,后转好（2000-2008年土地利用/覆被转类指数为2.66）2个过程。这一变化过程前期受区域气候变化以及人口增长共同驱动,后期则叠加了生态工程的影响。     

塔里木河下游生态环境变化时序监测与对比分析

塔里木河下游地区是我国西部干旱区生态环境问题比较突出的区域。本文主要从地表水(湖泊、河流和湿地)、地下水、地表植被覆盖的角度,基于多源遥感和长时间序列数据,监测和分析生态输水前后区域环境变化和生态响应。首先,采用基于知识迁移的专题图斑更新技术,实现了1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年区域湿地遥感制图和植被覆盖度等生态因子指标提取;然后,以2000年为基准（生态输水起始年）,结合地下水位观测数据,对比分析了人工生态输水前后区域生态环境动态变化过程。结果显示：① 生态输水前（1990-2000年）,塔河下游的生态环境持续恶化,流域范围内一半以上的沼泽湿地消失、河道干涸,地下水位下降,区域植被覆盖大幅度下降;② 生态输水后（2000-2017年）,区域生态环境明显好转,改变了下游河道长期断流状态,区域地下水位明显抬升,地表水域（湖泊和沼泽）面积呈现“V”型逆转增加,区域植被覆盖区和覆盖度均呈现显著增加趋势,曾经一度干涸的塔河尾闾台特玛湖水域面积2017年8月达到147.87 km²。以上研究结果综合表明人工生态输水工程对塔河下游生态环境拯救和治理发挥了重要作用,遏制了生态输水前塔河下游生态环境继续恶化局面,流域生态环境正在逐步恢复。     

基于土地利用格局变化的胶东半岛生境质量时空演变特征研究

生境质量受人类活动引起的土地利用变化影响日益严重,因此,对于生境质量的监测与评估具有重要意义。基于2000、2005、2010、2015和2020年土地利用数据,利用GIS空间分析技术和InVEST-Habitat Quality模型,对胶东半岛土地利用和生境质量时空特征进行定量化描述,甄别生境质量变化的热点区域,探究胶东半岛土地利用格局变化对生境质量的影响。结果表明：耕地一直是胶东半岛的主要土地利用类型,该地区整体土地转移的速率呈缓慢上升趋势,建设用地的转入和耕地的转出尤为突出;胶东半岛5个年份的生境质量平均值分别为0.565、0.560、0.552、0.548、0.545,总体上呈下降趋势;不同等级区域的面积占比大小依次为：中等、高、低、较高、较低;中等生境质量区域面积减少最多,而低等生境质量区域面积增加最多,内陆区域生境质量高值区面积小且分散,而生境质量低值区分布相对集中且呈块状、片状;生境质量指数变化速率在减缓;不同区域中,生境质量对于土地利用变化的响应不同,建设用地增加是胶东半岛地区生境质量整体下降的主要原因,而滨海湿地增加提高了局部区域的生境质量。本研究将为胶东半岛地区土地的规划管理和生态环境保护提供相关科学参考。     

RESPONSES OF WETLAND ECO-SECURITY TO LAND USE CHANGE IN WESTERN JILIN PROVINCE, CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NEco-security is the state in w hich the resources,envi-ronm entand ecosystem s thatconcern people are secure(M Aetal.,2004;SH Ietal.,2004).O therw ise,w e calliteco-security problem or ecologicalrisk.The eco-se-curity isdraw ing the in…     

Application of land-use change model in guiding regional planning: A case study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in the Hun-Taizi River watershed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend (HT), urban planning (UP) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios considering urban planning and ...     

ANALYSIS ON SPATIAL FEATURES OF LUCC BASED ON REMOTE SENSING AND GIS IN CHINA

In view of the large quantities of areas,complex landform and dynamic change of resources and environ-ment in China,China has already funded abundantly a series of macro remote sensing investigation projects in land use cover change(LUCC) since 1990.Supported by the achievements of such projects,Chinese resources,environmental and remote sensing database(CRERS) was created.In this paper,we standardized the LUCC dataset of CRERS at scale of 1km,which facilitated the study of spatial features of LUCC in China.The analysis on the spatial features of LUCC and their causes of formation in China are based on the CRERS supported by the technologies of Geographic Information System(GIS) .The whole research was based on the grade index of land use,ecological environmental index and index of population density.Based on the correlation analysis,we found that the special features of LUCC were closely related with those of ecological environment and population density,which resulted form that areas with better ecological environ-ment and high production potential of land were easy and convenient for human being to live,which,furthermore,led to the aggravation of excessive exploitation of land resources there.