Effect of climate change on seasonal water use efficiency in subalpine <Emphasis Type="Italic">Abies fabri</Emphasis>

Abies fabri is a typical subalpine dark coniferous forest in southwestern China. Air temperature increases more at high elevation areas than that at low elevation areas in mountainous regions, and climate change ratio is also uneven in different seasons. Carbon gain and the response of water use efficiency (WUE) to annual and seasonal increases in temperature with or without CO₂ fertilization were simulated in Abies fabri using the atmospheric-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). Four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were selectively investigated. The results showed that warmer temperatures have negative effects on gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) in growing seasons and positive effects in dormant seasons due to the variation in the leaf area index. Warmer temperatures tend to generate lower canopy WUE and higher ecosystem WUE in Abies fabri. However, warmer temperature together with rising CO₂ concentrations significantly increase the GPP and NPP in both growing and dormant seasons and enhance WUE in annual and dormant seasons because of the higher leaf area index (LAI) and soil temperature. The comparison of the simulated results with and without CO₂ fertilization shows that CO₂ has the potential to partially alleviate the adverse effects of climate warming on carbon gain and WUE in subalpine coniferous forests.     

Simulating Carbon Sequestration and GHGs Emissions in Abies fabric Forest on the Gongga Mountains Using a Biogeochemical Process Model Forest-DNDC

The process-oriented model Forest-DNDC describing biogeochemical cycling of C and N and GHGs (greenhouse gases) fluxes (CO2, NO and N2O) in forest ecosystems was applied to simulate carbon sequestration and GHGs emissions in Abies fabric forest of the Gongga Mountains at southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The results indicated that the simulated gross primary production (GPP) of Abies fabric forest was strongly affected by temperature. The annual total GPP was 24,245.3 kg C ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 26,318.8 kg C ha-1 yr-1 for 2006, respectively. The annual total net primary production (NPP) was 5,935.5 and 4,882.2 kg C ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 2006, and the annual total net ecosystem production (NEP) was 4,815.4 and 3,512.8 kg C ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 2006, respectively. The simulated seasonal variation in CO2 emissions generally followed the seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. The annual total CO2 emissions were 3,109.0 and 4,821.0 kg C ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 2006, the simulated annual total N2O emissions from forest soil were 1.47 and 1.36 kg N ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 2006, and the annual total NO emissions were 0.09 and 0.12 kg N ha-1 yr-1 for 2005 and 2006, respectively.     

Effects of Environmental Conditions and Aboveground Biomass on CO_2 Budget in Phragmites australis Wetland of Jiaozhou Bay,China

Estuarial saline wetlands have been recognized as a vital role in CO_2 cycling.However,insufficient attention has been paid to estimating CO_2 fluxes from estuarial saline wetlands.In this study,the static chamber-gas chromatography(GC) method was used to quantify CO_2 budget of an estuarial saline reed(Phragmites australis) wetland in Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao City of Shandong Province,China during the reed growing season(May to October) in 2014.The CO_2 budget study involved net ecosystem CO_2 exchange(NEE),ecosystem respiration(Reco) and gross primary production(GPP).Temporal variation in CO_2 budget and the impact of air/soil temperature,illumination intensity and aboveground biomass exerted on CO_2 budget were analyzed.Results indicated that the wetland was acting as a net sink of 1129.16 g/m~2 during the entire growing season.Moreover,the values of Reco and GPP were 1744.89 g/m~2 and 2874.05 g/m~2,respectively;the ratio of Reco and GPP was 0.61.Diurnal and monthly patterns of CO_2 budget varied significantly during the study period.Reco showed exponential relationships with air temperature and soil temperature at 5 cm,10 cm,20 cm depths,and soil temperature at 5 cm depth was the most crucial influence factor among them.Meanwhile,temperature sensitivity(Q10) of Reco was negatively correlated with soil temperature.Light and temperature exerted strong controls over NEE and GPP.Aboveground biomass over the whole growing season showed non-linear relationships with CO_2 budget,while those during the early and peak growing season showed significant linear relationships with CO_2 budget.This research provides valuable reference for CO_2 exchange in estuarial saline wetland ecosystem.     

Simulating carbon sequestration and GHGs emissions in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Abies fabric</Emphasis> forest on the Gongga Mountains using a biogeochemical process model Forest-DNDC

The process-oriented model Forest-DNDC describing biogeochemical cycling of C and N and GHGs （greenhouse gases） fluxes （CO2, NO and N2O） in forest ecosystems was applied to simulate carbon sequestration and GHGs emissions in Abies fabric forest of the Gongga Mountains at southeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. The results indicated that the simulated gross primary production （GPP） of Abies fabric forest was strongly affected by temperature. The annual total GPP was 24,245.3 kg C ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 26,318.8 kg C ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2006, respectively. The annual total net primary production （NPP） was 5,935.5 and 4,882.2 kg C ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 2006, and the annual total net ecosystem production （NEP） was 4,815.4 and 3,512.8 kg C ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 2006, respectively. The simulated seasonal variation in CO2 emissions generally followed the seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. The annual total CO2 emissions were 3,109.0 and 4,821.0 kg C ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 2006, the simulated annual total N2O emissions from forest soil were 1.47 and 1.36 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 2006, and the annual total NO emissions were 0.09 and o.12 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 for 2005 and 2006, respectively.     

Exploring the influence of environmental factors in partitioning evapotranspiration along an elevation gradient on Mount Gongga,eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Platea,China

Evapotranspiration(ET) is a crucial part of the global hydrological cycle, and quantifying ET components is significant for understanding the global water cycle and energy balance. However, there is no consensus on the value of ET components, especially in topographic abrupt change zone, such as eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Platea, where values of ET changes along the altitudinal gradients. Our aim is to explore the influencing factors in partitioning evapotranspiration and how ET components change with increasing elevations. A novel approach was proposed to estimate ET components by adding net solar radiation(Rn) instead of the vapor pressure deficit(VPD) into the underlying water use efficiency(u WUE) model based on one-year continuous measurements of flux data along the elevation gradient on Mount Gongga. Correlation analysis shows that the u WUE model's performance can be improved significantly by considering Rn instead of VPD, with correlation coefficients increasing by 35%-64%. The ratios of transpiration(T) to ET(T/ET) were 0.47, 0.48, 0.50 and 0.35 for the deciduous broadleaf forest(BF), mixed coniferous and deciduous broadleaf forest(MF), evergreen needle forest(ENF) and shrub land(SL), respectively. Leaf area index(LAI) and air temperature(Ta) were the two main controlling factors in determining T/ET during the growing season and at an annual scale, while Rn and Ta played more important roles during the dormant season. This study highlights the importance of incorporating Rn in partitioning evapotranspiration by using the water use efficiency(WUE) method in a humid mountainous region, which can improve the estimation of T/ET on a global scale.     

气候变化情景下淮河上游流域氮排放预测研究

淮河流域是水体遭受营养盐污染较严重的地区,本研究选择淮河上游的淮滨流域（淮滨站以上,流域面积1.6万km²）为研究对象,首先构建了淮滨流域SWAT水文水质模型,然后利用2011—2017年淮滨站实测的月径流和月氨氮浓度对SWAT模型进行了校正与验证,最后基于全球气候模型（GCM）气象数据,预测了未来30年（2020—2029年、2030—2039年、2040—2049年）不同气候变化情境（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5）下的径流、氨氮浓度和非点源总氮负荷。结果发现,径流在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均为0.79,氨氮在校正期和验证期的Nash-Suttcliffe系数均高于0.5,表明模型的适用性良好。研究发现本研究区施肥量与土地利用类型是非点源氮负荷空间分异的主导因素。2020—2049年,不同气候变化情景下,本研究区的降水量和气温均为增长趋势。假如保持基准期（2011—2016年）污染排放强度,仅考虑气候变化影响,流域内非点源污染总氮负荷将比基准期最多增加31.8%,流域出水口淮滨站的年均氨氮浓度将最多减小42.6%。本研究可以为气候变化下淮滨流域的水文水质管理提供科学支撑。     

Examining Forest Net Primary Productivity Dynamics and Driving Forces in Northeastern China During 1982–2010

Forest net primary productivity （NPP） is a key parameter for forest monitoring and management. In this study, monthly and annual forest NPP in the northeastern China from 1982 to 2010 were simulated by using Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model with normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） sequences derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer （AVHRR） Global Invento y Modeling and Mapping Studies （GIMMS） and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） products. To address the problem of data inconsistency between AVHRR and MODIS data, a per-pixel unary linear regres- sion model based on least ~;quares method was developed to derive the monthly NDVI sequences. Results suggest that estimated forest NPP has mean relative error of 18.97% compared to observed NPP from forest inventory. Forest NPP in the northeastern China in- creased significantly during the twenty-nine years. The results of seasonal dynamic show that more clear increasing trend of forest NPP occurred in spring and awmnn. This study also examined the relationship between forest NPP and its driving forces including the climatic and anthropogenic factors. In spring and winter, temperature played the most pivotal role in forest NPR In autumn, precipitation acted as the most importanl factor affecting forest NPP, while solar radiation played the most important role in the summer. Evaportran- spiration had a close correlation with NPP for coniferous forest, mixed coniferous broadleaved forest, and broadleaved deciduous forest. Spatially, forest NPP in the Da Hinggan Mountains was more sensitive to climatic changes than in the other ecological functional re- gions. In addition to climalie change, the degradation and improvement of forests had important effects on forest NPP. Results in this study are helpful for understanding the regional carbon sequestration and can enrich the cases for the monitoring of vegetation during long time series.     

Water resources response and prediction under climate change in Tao'er River Basin,Northeast China

Climate change has significantly affected hydrological processes and increased the frequency and severity of water shortage, droughts and floods in northeast China. A study has been conducted to quantify the influence of climate change on the hydrologic process in the Tao'er River Basin(TRB), one of the most prominent regions in northeast China for water contradiction. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model was calibrated and validated with observed land use and hydro-climatic data and then employed for runoff simulations at upper, middle and lower reaches of the river basin for different climate change scenarios. The results showed that a gradual increase in temperature and decrease in annual precipitation in the basin was projected for the period 2020-2050 for both representative concentration pathways(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The climate changes would cause a decrease in annual average runoff at basin outlet by 12 and 23 million m3 for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The future runoff in the upstream and midstream of the basin during 2020-2050 would be-10.8% and-12.1% lower than the observed runoff compared to the base period for RCP4.5, while those would be-5.3% and-10.7% lower for RCP8.5. The future runoff will decrease at three hydrology stations for the assumed future climate scenarios. The results can help us understand the future temperature and precipitation trends and the hydrological cycle process under different climate change scenarios, and provide the basis for the rational allocation and management of water resources under the influence of future climate change in the TRB.     

Spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity in Hengduan Mountains area,China: impacts of climate change and human activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.     

福建省森林生态系统NPP的遥感模拟与分析

利用MODIS遥感影像,结合气象资料等数据,采用BEPS过程模型对2004年福建省的森林生态系统植被净初级生产力(NPP)进行了模拟验证。研究结果表明,2004年福建省森林生态系统NPP平均值为578.97gC/m²·a,NPP总量累计达到46.18×106tC;不同林地NPP全年平均值大小依次为:竹林≈阔叶林>杉木>马尾松,其值分别为:788.6gC/m²·a,780.0gC/m²·a,519.8gC/m²·a,437.3gC/m²·a;时空分析结果表明,2004年6-8月NPP形成较为明显的"坑"形分布形态,主要的原因之一很可能是有效降水量偏少;在空间分布上,福建省森林生态系统NPP与海拔高程显著相关,体现了该地区森林生态系统NPP空间分布的地域特征,这在一定程度上表明随着海拔上升,山高坡陡,人类对森林生态系统的干扰活动减少,有助于森林生态系统生产力的提高和维持。最后,分析了应用BEPS过程模型模拟福建省森林生态系统净初级生产力的不确定性问题。     

Contrasting changes in above- and below-ground biomass allocation across treeline ecotones in southeast Tibet

Under conditions of a warmer climate, the advance of the alpine treeline into alpine tundra has implications for carbon dynamics in mountain ecosystems. However, the above- and below-ground live biomass allocations among different vegetation types within the treeline ecotones are not well investigated. To determine the altitudinal patterns of above-/below-ground carbon allocation, we measured the root biomass and estimated the above-ground biomass (AGB) in a subalpine forest, treeline forest, alpine shrub, and alpine grassland along two elevational transects towards the alpine tundra in southeast Tibet. The AGB strongly declined with increasing elevation, which was associated with a decrease in the leaf area index and a consequent reduction in carbon gain. The fine root biomass (FRB) increased significantly more in the alpine shrub and grassland than in the treeline forest, whereas the coarse root biomass changed little with increasing altitudes, which led to a stable below-ground biomass (BGB) value across altitudes. Warm and infertile soil conditions might explain the large amount of FRB in alpine shrub and grassland. Consequently, the root to shoot biomass ratio increased sharply with altitude, which suggested a remarkable shift of biomass allocation to root systems near the alpine tundra. Our findings demonstrate contrasting changes in AGB and BGB allocations across treeline ecotones, which should be considered when estimating carbon dynamics with shifting treelines.     

Estimations of net primary productivity and evapotranspiration based on HJ-1A/B data in Jinggangshan city, China

Net primary productivity(NPP) and evapotranspiration(ET) are two key variables in the carbon and water cycles of terrestrial ecosystems.In this study,to test a newly developed NPP algorithm designed for HJ-1 A/B data and to evaluate the usage of HJ-1 A/B data in the quantitative assessment of environments,NPP and ET in Jinggangshan city,Jiangxi province,are calculated using HJ-1 A/B data.The results illustrate the following:(1) The NPP and ET in Jinggangshan city in 2010 both show obvious seasonal variation,with the highest values in summer and the lowest values in winter,and relatively higher values were observed in autumn than in spring.(2) The spatial pattern indicates that the annual NPP is high in the southern area in Jinggangshan city and low in the northern area.Additionally,high NPP is distributed in forests located in areas with high elevation,and low NPP is found in croplands at low elevations.ET has no significant north-south difference,with high values in the southeast and northwest and low values in the southwest,and high ET is distributed in forests at low elevations in contrast to low ET in forests in high-elevation areas and in cropland and shrub grassland in low-elevation areas.(3) Compared to the MODIS product,the range of HJ-1 NPP is larger,and the spatial pattern is more coincident with the topography.The range of HJ-1 ET is smaller than that of the MODIS product,and ET is underestimated to some extent but can reflect the effect of topography.This study suggests that the algorithm can be used to estimate NPP and ET in a subtropical monsoon climate if remotely sensed images with high spatial resolution are available.     

未来RCP4.5情景下非洲地区主要气候要素时空演变特征

气候变化影响及其适应受到广泛关注。大量研究表明,受气候变化影响所造成的增温和降水减少已影响到非洲地区的农业生产和环境。本文利用HadGEM2区域气候模式输出的RCP4.5情景数据,基于时间序列分析及空间分析方法,对非洲大陆2010-2099年主要关键气候要素时空演变特征进行了预估,探讨了非洲大陆未来90年包括降水、辐射、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温等主要气候要素的时空变化格局。结果表明：各气候要素在不同时段的变化均表现出明显的地域分异差异： ① 相较于1970-1999年基准时段,未来3个时段(2020s、2050s、2080s)降水均增加,在2080s增至峰值,增加地区集中在20 °N附近的尼日尔、乍得、利比亚等国;最高增幅达4.5%;② 辐射增加区域分布在赤道地区和非洲大陆的南北两端,尤其是高海拔地区,如撒哈拉沙漠以北的阿特拉斯山脉附近,加丹加高原等地,最大增幅达0.04%;③ 未来90年非洲地区气温增加明显,包括平均气温、最高气温、最低气温,气温增幅由2020s、2050s、2080s依次递增,到2080s达到最大值,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的最大增幅分别达到5、4.3和5.1 ℃。总体上,未来90年非洲大陆的气温较1970-1999年基准时段明显增多,但靠近海域的沿海地区增温较小,这是由于受到近海寒流的影响,起到了降温的作用。气温增幅过高也将不利于未来农业生产和地区安全。     

武陵山区植被净第一性生产力的时空格局及其与地形因子的关系

本研究旨在探讨2001-2010年武陵山区植被净第一性生产力(NPP)的时空变化格局及其与主要地形因子间的关系。利用MODIS MOD17A3数据、地形数据,以及土地覆盖等数据,基于回归分析和分级统计等方法,开展了武陵山区植被NPP的时空变化格局及其与高程和坡度2个基本地形因子间关系的研究。结果表明：(1)10年间武陵山区植被年NPP的平均值为590.72 gC·m^-2·yr^-1,森林、灌草和农田的NPP平均值分别为596.79 gC·m^-2·yr^-1、586.98 gC·m^-2·yr^-1和563.31 gC·m^-2·yr^-1;(2)2001-2010年武陵山区植被NPP总量的平均值为98.90 TgC·yr^-1,波动范围为92.79 ~ 106.99 TgC·yr^-1,从NPP年际变化的空间分布来看,武陵山区植被NPP的变化趋势整体上呈北增南减的格局;(3)分别以30 m和3°为高程和坡度的分级级差时,发现武陵山区平均植被NPP随海拔和坡度的升高有明显的先增加后缓慢下降的趋势,但在海拔高于1500 m及坡度大于50°的地区,平均植被NPP出现了较大波动,然而,在波动中均有随海拔和坡度的增加而先上升后再下降的趋势;(4)在地理区间尺度上,200~1000 m的高程段以及5~25°的坡度段内植被NPP的平均值较高,500 m以上的高程区间平均植被NPP依次递减,但50°以上的坡度区间平均植被NPP反而有所增加,这在一定程度上反映了坡度高于某一临界值后坡面侵蚀强度又有所下降的趋势。     

The impacts of permafrost change on NPP and implications: A case of the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model,cubic spline interpolating functions,and non-linear regression methods.The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas.Results illustrate that:(1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years;(2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17,5.87,7....     

百色盆地渐新世古植被与古气候

为恢复百色盆地渐新世古植被面貌并重建古气候, 对该盆地伏平组孢粉化石进行了采样、分析、鉴定, 共获得孢粉化石34属, 并划分为2个组合: (Ⅰ) Abietineaepollenites-Quercoidites-Polypodiaceaesporites组合; (Ⅱ) Abietineaepollenites-Pinuspollenites-Pediastrum组合。组合Ⅰ时代为渐新世Rupelian中期; 组合Ⅱ时代为渐新世Rupelian晚期至Chattian早期。植被面貌变化为: 针阔混交林, 底部生长着蕨类植被→针叶林。通过孢粉组合属性特征的研究得出孢粉组合Ⅰ代表了亚热带湿润性气候, 湿度相对较大; 孢粉组合Ⅱ代表了亚热带较湿润性气候。通过共存因子分析得出: 在渐新世Rupelian中期至Chattian早期时间段内百色盆地年均降雨量(MAP)在797.5~1 293.7 mm之间, 年均温度(MAT)在11.3~22.6℃之间, 为北亚热带气候特征。而现在的百色盆地位于南亚热带(年均温度: 22.0℃, 年均降雨量: 1 070.5 mm), 二者的差异可能与新生代印度板块与亚洲板块碰撞所造成的亚洲板块"右旋"有关。      

湛江气温的多时间尺度特征及其变化趋势预测

利用MHAT小波函数分析了湛江市近50年来年平均气温的多时间尺度变化特征,并采用Kalman滤波模型对年平均温度的变化趋势进行了预测研究。结果表明,在半个多世纪的气候变化过程中包含了16 a4、a和准2 a的周期振荡,20世纪80年代中期以来湛江气温持续升高,且未来几年仍处于偏高阶段。卡尔曼滤波模型对湛江年平均气温的预测中,独立样本预测的平均绝对误差(MAE)等于0.30℃,相对误差为1.24%,对短期气候预测工作具有较高的参考价值。     

Responses of Alpine Wetlands to Climate Changes on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Based on Remote Sensing

The alpine wetlands in QTP(Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau) have been profoundly impacted along with global climate changes. We employ satellite datasets and climate data to explore the relationships between alpine wetlands and climate changes based on remote sensing data. Results show that: 1) the wetland NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and GPP(Gross Primary Production) were more sensitive to air temperature than to precipitation rate. The wetland ET(evapotranspiration) across alpine wetlands was greatly correlated with precipitation rate. 2) Alpine wetlands responses to climate changes varied spatially and temporally due to different geographic environments, variety of wetland formation and human disturbances. 3) The vegetation responses of the Zoige wetland was the most noticeable and related to the temperature, while the GPP and NDVI of the Qiangtang Plateau and Gyaring-Ngoring Lake were significantly correlated with both temperature and precipitation. 4) ET in the Zoige wetland showed a significantly positive trend, while ET in Maidika wetland and the Qiangtang plateau showed a negative trend, implying wetland degradation in those two wetland regions. The complexities of the impacts of climate changes on alpine wetlands indicate the necessity of further study to understand and conserve alpine wetland ecosystems.     

京津冀地区植被时空动态及定量归因

作为气候变化的敏感指示器,植被的物候、生长、空间分布格局等特征及其动态变化主要取决于气候环境中的水热条件,因此在气候变化背景下,气候-植被关系成为了全球变化研究的前沿和热点问题。本文综合平均温度、降水、水汽压、湿度、日照时数、SPEI等气候因子,坡度、坡向海拔等地形因子及人为活动因子,应用地理探测器方法针对2006-2015年京津冀地区不同季节NDVI、不同地貌类型区、不同植被类型区生长季NDVI的定量归因研究,揭示了过去10年间植被时空分布格局,及植被对气候、非气候因素响应的季节差异与区域差异,以期为生态工程的建设与修复提供参考意义。趋势分析表明：①2006-2015年京津冀地区NDVI呈现增加趋势,但存在显著的空间差异,如山地生长季NDVI的增长速率大于平原、台地、丘陵等地;②基于地理探测器的定量归因结果表明,降水是年尺度上NDVI空间分布的主导因子（解释力39.4%）,土地利用与降水的交互作用对NDVI的影响最为明显（q=58.2%）;③NDVI对气候因子的响应存在季节性及区域性差异,水汽压是春季NDVI空间分布的主导因子,湿度是夏、秋两季的主导因子,土地利用是冬季的主导因子;④影响因子对生长季NDVI的解释力因不同地貌类型区、不同植被类型区而差异显著。     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori-A conservation approach

Climate change will affect the geographic distribution and richness of species at different spatial and temporal scales. We applied Maximum entropy(MaxEnt) modeling to predict the potential influence of climatic change on the current and future distribution of the important mountainous tree species Moringa peregrina(Forssk.) Fiori. The Maxent model performed better than random models for the species with the training and test AUC(Area Under the receiver-operating characteristic Curve) values of 0.96 and 0.90, respectively. Jackknife test and response curves showed that the distribution of the species negatively correlates with higher altitudes and precipitation in October and November. Moreover, it positively correlates with the total annual precipitation and precipitation in January. Under current and future climatic conditions, our model predicted habitat gains for M. peregrina towards the coastal northern and southern limits of its distribution. The potentially suitable habitats, under future climate projections, are currently characterized by elevations of 1000 m a.s.l. and total annual precipitation of 80-225 mm/year. Moderate and high potential habitat suitability will increase by 5.6%-6% and 2.1%-2.3%, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. The results indicated that the habitat suitability of M. peregrina would increase with increasing climate warming, particularly under RCP2.6 scenario. We recommend sustainable conservation and cultivation of Moringa peregrina in its current habitats along the Red Sea mountains.