Spatiotemporal mixed effects modeling for the estimation of PM2.5 from MODIS AOD over the Indian subcontinent

ABSTRACT

The physical processes associated with the constituents of the troposphere, such as aerosols have an immediate impact on human health. This study employs a novel method to calibrate Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) obtained from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS – Terra satellite) for estimating surface PM_2.5 concentration. The Combined Deep Blue Deep Target daily product from the MODIS AOD data acquired across the Indian Subcontinent was used as input, and the daily averaged PM_2.5pollution level data obtained from 33 monitoring stations spread across the country was used for calibration. Mixed Effect Models (MEM) is a linear model to deal with non-independent data from multiple levels or hierarchy using fixed and random effects of dependent parameters. MEM was applied to the dataset obtained for the period from January to August 2017. The MEM considers a fixed and random component, where the random components model the daily variations of the AOD – PM_2.5 relationships, site-specific adjustment parameters, temporal (meteorological) variables such as temperature, and spatial variables such as the percentage of agricultural area, forest cover, barren land and road density with the resolution of 10 km × 10 km. Estimation accuracy was improved from an R² value of 0.66 from our earlier study (when PM_2.5 was modeled against only AOD and site-specific parameters) toR² value of 0.75 upon the inclusion of spatiotemporal (meteorological) variables with increased % within Expected Error from 18% to 35%, reduced Mean Bias Error from 3.22 to 0.11 and reduced RMSE from 29.11 to 20.09. We also found that spline interpolation performed better than IDW and Kriging inefficiently estimating the PM_2.5 concentrations wherever there were missing AOD data. The estimated minimum PM_2.5 is 93 ± 25μg/m³ which itself is in the upper limit of the hazardous level while the maximum is estimated as 170 ± 70μg/m³. The study has thus made it possible to determine the daily spatial variations of PM_2.5 concentrations across the Indian subcontinent utilizing satellite-based AOD data.     

中国海洋上空细粒子气溶胶与短寿命痕量气体的时空关系

定量分析气溶胶与痕量气体之间的时空变化关系有助于进一步研究气粒转化。本文采用2006年—2015年MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、细粒子模态比(FMF)和OMI痕量气体(SO_2、NO_2和HCHO)数据,对黄海、东海和南海区域上空的细粒子气溶胶与痕量气体进行定量分析。先对气溶胶和痕量气体作均值分析发现:AOD_(fine)、SO_2、NO_2和HCHO的均值在黄海、南海、东海均依次减小;再对气溶胶对痕量气体的敏感度分析发现:黄海地区的AOD_(fine)对SO_2最敏感,敏感度为0.424,这与中国东部沿海城市的人为排放有关;而东海和南海地区对HCHO的敏感度较高,依次为0.664和0.545,主要受东南亚和中国南方地区生物质燃烧影响。最后,对3个区域的气溶胶与痕量气体按季节作相关性分析发现:黄海地区AOD_(fine)在夏秋两季与SO_2的相关性较强(R0.5),主要由于夏秋两季的温湿度大,利于发生气—粒转化;东海地区夏季HCHO与AOD_(fine)相关性较明显(R=0.57);南海春季HCHO与AOD_(fine)相关性较好(R=0.57),呈现出区域与季节性的变化。最终发现,气溶胶与痕量气体随着时空变化存在相关关系。     

风云三号D星MERSI AOD资料的同化应用研究

为了验证风云三号D星MERSI传感器的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）数据对地面PM_2.5的污染过程预报的效果,本文基于WRF-Chem（Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry）大气化学模式和三维变分同化方法,针对2020-02-10—2020-02-12中国北方地区的一次PM_2.5重污染过程,进行了同化和预报试验研究。同化数据来自常规地面站点的PM_2.5浓度数据和风云三号D星MERSI传感器的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）数据。控制试验不同化任何资料,3组同化试验分别为仅同化地面PM_2.5,仅同化卫星AOD,以及同时同化PM_2.5和卫星AOD两种资料。结果表明,3组同化试验都可以有效提高初始场准确率,以地面PM_2.5作为检验标准,仅同化PM_2.5、仅同化AOD、同时同化两种资料相对于控制试验,初始场的平均偏差分别降低54.9%、21.9%和49.0%,平均相关系数分别提升51.4%、16.0%和34.0%,平均均方根误差分别降低50.6%、17.2%和42.3%。以卫星AOD作为检验标准,3组同化试验相对于控制试验,初始场的平均偏差分别降低37.6%、78.4%和83%,平均均方根误差分别降低31.6%、62.2%和65.2%。同化后的初始场对预报有显著的改进,改进持续时间达24 h,以地面PM_2.5作为检验标准,同时同化两种资料的试验对24 h预报的平均偏差减少19.7%,相关系数提升8.8%,均方根误差减少17.2%;以卫星AOD作为检验标准,24 h预报的平均偏差减少40.1%,相关系数提升25.9%,均方根误差降低34.7%。试验结论为,相对于仅同化地面PM_2.5资料,同化风云卫星AOD资料可以提升后期预报效果。     

利用遥感数据评价燃煤电厂空气质量

卫星观测数据可以评价燃煤电厂的空气质量等级。NO₂、SO₂ 和烟尘是燃煤电厂排放的主要污染物,本文利用卫星遥感观测的NO₂、SO₂和气溶胶光学厚度AOD(Aerosol Optical Depth)开展燃煤电厂空气质量评价。以中国华北地区为实验区,分析对比了3种污染物不同时间分辨率和空间分辨率的污染状况,确定了单因子的5级分级标准,根据燃煤电厂排放污染物的权重不同,提出了评价近地表空气质量状况的模型。本文综合考虑3种污染因子来反映电厂空气质量,有利于提高评价的准确性以及反应信息的全面性。结果表明,该模型能正确反映不同地区电厂的空气质量特点。     

中国东部海域气溶胶光学厚度时空变化研究

结合船基海上现场实测资料与卫星遥感MODIS光学厚度资料,分析了中国东部海域气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)的季节变化和地理分布特征。中国东部海域平均气溶胶光学厚度存在以中纬度为中心的纬向分布;同时受到陆源物质的影响,近海气溶胶光学厚度大于远海,且随着离海岸距离变大有线性递减的趋势。受沙尘、季风气候的影响,各海域气溶胶光学厚度存在明显季节变化和分布特征。渤海、黄海及东海有类似的变化特征,春季都受到沙尘气溶胶的影响,气溶胶平均光学厚度值为全年最高0.12,并且对东海的影响最明显;夏季最小,秋、冬季逐渐变大。     

Satellite-measured atmospheric aerosol content in Korea: anthropogenic signals from decadal records

Spatiotemporal characteristics and anthropogenic signals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) distributions over Korea are investigated in this study using AOT time-series data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). AOT observations, a quantitative measure of the atmospheric quality, had significant geographical variations during the study period (2000–2010). Comparing metro cities or counties with similar populations, western regions showed higher AOT values than eastern regions. Particular matter with a diameter < 10 µm (PM₁₀), including aeolian dust or yellow dust, is the primary component of atmospheric aerosols, and their transport into the region has shown a strong seasonal pattern with its peak from March to April and lows from July to September. These seasonal dust patterns, however, did not correspond well to temporal AOT records, which typically reached the maximum level in June nationwide. Rather, widespread regional fire events and humidity showed significant correlations with AOT time-series. This correlation rapidly increased as the range of fire occurrence was extended to the west as far as 115°E. The relative humidity also had a significant correlation with AOT during the month of June. In addition to urban emission of anthropogenic aerosols, regional biomass burning and secondary growth of hygroscopic aerosols are considered important contributors to the degradation of the atmospheric environment during the non-Asian Dust season over the Korean Peninsula.     

暗目标法的Himawari-8静止卫星数据气溶胶反演

Himawari-8(H8)是由日本气象厅发射的新一代静止气象卫星,可实现10 min/次的高频次对地观测,搭载的AHI(Advanced Himawari Imager)传感器设置有与MODIS暗目标气溶胶反演算法所需的类似波段。本文参考暗目标算法构建了针对该卫星传感器的陆地气溶胶反演算法:首先,通过基于地基站点观测数据的精确大气校正,统计得到短波红外与可见光波段的地表反射率比值关系,将此作为先验知识用于地—气解耦时的反射率估计;然后,初步假设大陆型气溶胶类型,利用辐射传输模型建立查找表;最后,通过模拟与卫星观测的表观反射率误差最小实现气溶胶光学厚度反演解算。选取2016年5月覆盖京津冀地区的观测数据进行测试,将反演结果与对应时间的MODIS气溶胶光学厚度产品进行对比验证,空间分布趋势一致、相关性较高,相关系数R达到0.852;通过与地基观测网AERONET站点实测数据对比验证,所有站点的相关系数R~2均大于0.88,精度较高。利用反演的高时间分辨率产品,分析了京津冀地区的大气空间分布和日变化情况,结果表明:采用暗目标法对H8静止卫星陆地气溶胶光学厚度反演具有一定的潜力和可行性,能反映气溶胶的高时间变化信息,有望成为大气环境污染变化监测新的重要手段。     

Assessment of human health impact from exposure to multiple air pollutants in China based on satellite observations

Assessment of human health impact caused by air pollution is crucial for evaluating environmental hazards. In this paper, concentrations of six air pollutants (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, O₃, and CO) were first derived from satellite observations, and then the overall human health risks in China caused by multiple air pollutants were assessed using an aggregated health risks index. Unlike traditional approach for human health risks assessment, which relied on the in-situ air pollution measurements, the spatial distribution of aggregated human health risks in China were obtained using satellite observations in this research. It was indicated that the remote sensing data have advantages over in-situ data in accessing human health impact caused by air pollution.     

Seasonality and Latitudinal Variation of Water Vapour and Aerosol Optical Thickness and Their relationship Over Tropical Indian Ocean

Aerosol and water vapour are very important element in the Earth’s climate system which has direct role in the Earth’s radiation budget. In this paper the seasonality, latitudinal distribution and the relationship of aerosol optical thickness (AOD) and water vapour (WV) using MODIS Level 3 monthly data from 2001 to 2008 are analysed. The analysis shows that AOD (0.55 μm) values reach maximum during southwest monsoon and remain minimum during northeast monsoon period. The Equatorial Indian Ocean shows minimum AOD (0.115 to 0.153) throughout the year compared to Arabian Sea (0.208 to 0.613) and Bay of Bengal (0.214 to 0.351). Arabian Sea shows high variation and maximum value of AOD compared to Bay of Bengal and Equatorial Indian Ocean. During southwest monsoon WV over Bay of Bengal was found higher in concentration compared to Arabian Sea and Equitorial Indian Ocean throughout the study period. Comparison between Arabian Sea (2.98 cm to 5.07 cm) and Bay of Bengal (3.49 cm to 5.94 cm) shows that WV concentration is less in Arabian Sea throughout the year. The analysis of correlation between WV and AOD was found to be inconsistent. However, AOD and WV shows a strong positive correlation for whole year (Mean R² =0.90) in the Equitorial Indian Ocean region except in the months of January, February and March. In general, the correlation between WV and AOD is found to be strongly positive for oceanic aerosol (sea salt) in low water vapour condition.     

全天空偏振模式及其影响因素初探

太阳光入射与地表、大气相互作用,会在天空中出现较为稳定的天空偏振模式图,即以太阳为中心,天空中的偏振信号呈现一定的规律分布。影响天空偏振模式图的强度及形态主要由地表反射性质、空气分子散射性质及气溶胶光学性质共同影响。本研究利用矢量辐射传输模型,以海洋下垫面为例,在获取沙尘非球形与煤烟非球型气溶胶单次散射性质的基础上,模拟了不同气溶胶光学厚度情况下的全天空偏振模式图。结果表明,天空以太阳入射方向为中心呈现一个较为稳定的天空偏振模式图。沙尘型散射气溶胶光学厚度的增大会减弱该模式图的强度,而煤烟型吸收气溶胶光学厚度的增大会增大该模式图的强度。利用双模态(沙尘型与煤烟型混合)气溶胶模型,系统分析不同气溶胶比例情况下的天空偏振模式图,结果表明全天空偏振模式图的基本模态依旧存在,但是其强度受气溶胶模型与光学厚度双重影响。因此在利用全天空偏振模式图进行气溶胶光学性质反演时需要注意气溶胶模态信息的选择。     

结合地基激光雷达和太阳辐射计的气溶胶垂直分布观测

选取2013年1月灰霾和2月晴好天进行气溶胶垂直分布的雷达观测研究,并对不同高度气溶胶消光系数进行对比分析。结果显示在研究时间段内,晴好天时气溶胶的垂直分布不均匀,易出现垂直分层现象,而灰霾天时气溶胶主要集中在垂直高度1km以下,基本无分层现象。对比分析显示,严重灰霾天时气溶胶消光系数较大,在400米高度可达到中度污染天的5倍,以及晴好天的50倍。此外,整层大气的气溶胶光学厚度与400米处消光具有较好的相关性。     

Impact of land-cover layout on particulate matter 2.5 in urban areas of China

ABSTRACT

Urbanization in China is closely connected with ambient particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5). However, the potential for altering PM_2.5 through the urban landscape characteristics is uncertain. In this study, we analyzed the urban PM_2.5 pollution situation for 2014–2016 and investigated the impact of landscape factors on urban PM_2.5 in China at the city level. All the prefecture-level cities were stratified by urban population size into small (<500,000), medium (500,000–1,000,000), and large (>1,000,000), and the other second-level administrative cities were assigned as ‘other’ cities. The multivariate regression model including both urban landscape factors and social-economic variables explained 70.0%, 32.8%, 19.2%, and 12.4% of the arithmetic mean PM_2.5 concentration (AMC-PM_2.5) for the other, small, medium, and large cities, respectively. With regard to the configuration of land cover, agricultural activity is a major contributor of PM_2.5 pollution, for which the explanatory power ranged from 7.6% (for the large cities) to 64% (for the other cities). In addition, grassland aggregation also has a limited but negative effect on urban PM_2.5 pollution, despite the negligible effect on dry deposition. Overall, these findings likely reflect the interaction between urban air quality and urbanization, and will have implications for air quality control strategies.     

Estimation of Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide and Air-Sea Fluxes in Hooghly Estuary Based on In Situ and Satellite Observations

An empirical model is developed and used with remotely sensed predictors: sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), to compute surface water partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO_2w) and air-sea fluxes of CO₂ in the Hooghly estuary and its adjacent coastal oceans. In situ observations used here were based on measurements carried out in this region during winter and summer periods in 2008. The estimated pCO_2w compares well with the in situ observations at root mean square error ±18 μatm. In winter, estimated pCO_2w ranges between 320 and 500 μatm with large values (>400 μatm) on the south-western and south-eastern flanks of the coastal domain and lower values (340–375 μatm) on the main-channel. In summer, it remained spatially uniform at 450 μatm. Extrapolation of the results over the study region based on the Moderate Imaging Specroradiometer (MODIS) measured SST and Chl-a suggests that the region is a strong source of atmospheric CO₂ during the summer with net release of 0.095 Tg C year^?1 (equivalent to mean flux of 90 molC m^?2 year^?1) and is a weak source during the winter with net release of 0.006 Tg C yr^?1 (0.5 molC m^?2 year^?1) from the geographical extent of 6000 Km² area.     

The brightness temperature adjusted dust index: An improved approach to detect dust storms using MODIS imagery

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery provides a good data source for timely and accurate monitoring of dust storms. However, effective MODIS-based dust indices are inadequate. In this study, we proposed an improved brightness temperature adjusted dust index (BADI) by integrating the brightness temperatures of three thermal infrared MODIS bands: band₂₀ (3.66–3.84 μm), band₃₁ (10.78–11.28 μm) and band₃₂ (11.77–12.27 μm). We used the BADI to monitor several representative dust storms over the Northeast Asia between 2000 and 2011. When compared to commonly used MODIS-based dust indices, such as the brightness temperature difference index in band₃₂ and band₃₁ (BTD_32-31) and the normalized difference dust index (NDDI), the BADI captured the spatial extent and density of dust storms more accurately. The BADI detected dust storm extent with an overall accuracy >90%, which was 7% and 29% higher than the results derived from BTD_32-31 and NDDI, respectively. The BADI also demonstrated good agreement with the density indicator of MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth (R² = 0.59, P < 0.01). We suggest that the BADI is an effective tool to monitor large-scale dust storms.     

南京地区大气气溶胶综合观测与对比分析

利用CE-318太阳光度计、MPL激光雷达与卫星观测数据,分别采用光谱消光法、Fernald方法以及MODIS暗像元法(DDV)反演南京地区气溶胶光学厚度,并进行了对比分析。通过研究分析3月3日、6日卫星反演气溶胶光学厚度的空间分布图,发现长江流域附近以及市区(除老山、中山陵等山区地带之外)的AOD较高。3月3日太阳光度计、激光雷达与卫星数据在站点位置(南京信息工程大学,118.7°E,32.2°N)的AOD值分别为0.455、0.289、0.4;3月6日的AOD值分别为0.373、0.267、0.25。通过对比分析3月至9月之间的多天数据,可得3种数据计算所得AOD相差不大,说明卫星与激光雷达反演数据相对可靠。其中,3月3日与3月6日的太阳光度计数据显示,观测地区出现常见的两种AOD变化类型:一种是早晚高,中午低;一种是早低晚高。此外,激光雷达所得数据结果随着时间的变化幅度较大,且可以在有云的天气条件下探测气溶胶;本文利用激光雷达数据计算出的9 km以下AOD值多数在0.3左右,3月3日与3月6日两天之中,2 km以下较脏,出现了一些气溶胶层,6km以上相对比较干净,个别时段6 km以上高空存在云层。与地基观测相比,卫星虽然时间分辨率虽然低,但是对于大面积的趋势分析却有着绝对的优势。在今后的气溶胶观测发展中,结合三者的优势,有助于以较高精度,大面积反演大气气溶胶空间分布情况,获得较准确的气溶胶参数。     

杭州湾HJ CCD影像悬浮泥沙遥感定量反演

利用环境小卫星CCD(HJ CCD)影像对杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度(SSC)进行了反演研究。通过对杭州湾水体遥感反射率(Rrs)与SSC进行相关性分析发现,在690nm和830nm左右出现显著的反射峰,分别位于HJ CCD影像的第3和第4波段范围内;大于700nm波长处的Rrs与SSC相关性较好。基于实测Rrs和SSC之间的相关关系,利用第4和第3波段比值作为遥感因子建立SSC反演模型,模型决定系数达到0.90。借鉴近红外-短波红外(NIR-SWIR)结合的大气校正方法反演出的准同步MODIS气溶胶数据,实现了HJ CCD影像的大气校正,第3、第4波段的大气校正结果相对误差分别为5.54%和6.97%。结果显示,HJ CCD影像反演的SSC相对误差为7.12%;杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度要显著高于长江口,且内部差异明显。研究表明,通过适当的大气校正方法和反演算法,HJ CCD影像可用于杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度的估计。     

MODIS和OMI数据评估阅兵期间北京市大气减排成效

卫星观测不仅能反映区域宏观大气污染状况,也能从城市尺度上监测大气污染物的变化。基于以上优势,本文利用MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)和OMI对流层NO_2垂直柱浓度数据,比较2015年与2012年—2014年以及2015年3个时期(减排前、减排中、减排后)AOD和NO_2柱浓度的变化,定性分析了阅兵期间华北平原地区污染物减排效果,重点定量评估北京市联控减排措施的效果。研究发现2015年减排中华北平原重污染地区AOD和NO_2柱浓度相比于前3年同期有明显降低。定量分析北京市的减排效果得到:2015年减排中较前3年同期而言,AOD降低59%,NO_2柱浓度降低41%;较2015年减排前而言,AOD降低73%,NO_2柱浓度降低30%,去除气象条件影响后,AOD下降43%,NO_2柱浓度下降21%,说明严格的联控减排措施有效地改善了空气质量,气象条件也起到积极的作用。减排措施结束后,AOD和NO_2柱浓度比减排中分别增加159%和71%。研究结果表明,卫星遥感与地基监测评估效果相当,能反映北京地面污染物排放能力;它既能观测区域尺度大气污染变化,又可评估城市尺度大气污染减排。随着卫星技术水平的提高,期望未来卫星遥感可作为一种独立手段来定量评估区域及城市尺度空气质量减排措施的效果。     

相对湿度对吸收性气溶胶指数的影响

为提高风云三号气象卫星(FY-3)紫外臭氧总量探测仪(TOU)观测数据得到的吸收性气溶胶指数AAI(Absorbing Aerosol Index)或AI(Aerosol Index)的可靠性,需要了解AAI指数与相对湿度之间的内在关系。本研究利用大气辐射传输模型DAK(Doubling-Adding KNMI)分别模拟了在城市气溶胶和乡村气溶胶模式下AAI同相对湿度之间的关系,并将结果同已观测到的实际结果进行对比。结果发现,在相对湿度呈高值时AAI指数出现很大的变化,但相对湿度对两种气溶胶模型的影响具有相反的效应,分析显示当大气中含有吸收性气溶胶如含碳类气溶胶(在中国北部的污染过程中很常见)时,AAI结果对RH(Relative Humidity)有很强的依赖。在应用AAI指数产品检测污染过程中需要注意气溶胶的具体类型和相对湿度的影响,必要时在高相对湿度过程中进行数据校正或剔除。     

Pasture enclosures increase soil carbon dioxide flux rate in Semiarid Rangeland,Kenya

Background

Pasture enclosures play an important role in rehabilitating the degraded soils and vegetation, and may also influence the emission of key greenhouse gasses (GHGs) from the soil. However, no study in East Africa and in Kenya has conducted direct measurements of GHG fluxes following the restoration of degraded communal grazing lands through the establishment of pasture enclosures. A field experiment was conducted in northwestern Kenya to measure the emission of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O from soil under two pasture restoration systems; grazing dominated enclosure (GDE) and contractual grazing enclosure (CGE), and in the adjacent open grazing rangeland (OGR) as control. Herbaceous vegetation cover, biomass production, and surface (0–10 cm) soil organic carbon (SOC) were also assessed to determine their relationship with the GHG flux rate.

Results

Vegetation cover was higher enclosure systems and ranged from 20.7% in OGR to 40.2% in GDE while aboveground biomass increased from 72.0 kg DM ha^?1 in OGR to 483.1 and 560.4 kg DM ha^?1 in CGE and GDE respectively. The SOC concentration in GDE and CGE increased by an average of 27% relative to OGR and ranged between 4.4 g kg^?1 and 6.6 g kg^?1. The mean emission rates across the grazing systems were 18.6 μg N m^?2 h^?1, 50.1 μg C m^?2 h^?1 and 199.7 mg C m^?2 h^?1 for N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂, respectively. Soil CO₂ emission was considerably higher in GDE and CGE systems than in OGR (P?<?0.001). However, non-significantly higher CH₄ and N₂O emissions were observed in GDE and CGE compared to OGR (P?=?0.33 and 0.53 for CH₄ and N₂O, respectively). Soil moisture exhibited a significant positive relationship with CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, implying that it is the key factor influencing the flux rate of GHGs in the area.

Conclusions

The results demonstrated that the establishment of enclosures in tropical rangelands is a valuable intervention for improving pasture production and restoration of surface soil properties. However, a long-term study is required to evaluate the patterns in annual CO₂, N₂O, CH₄ fluxes from soils and determine the ecosystem carbon balance across the pastoral landscape.

     

灰霾污染状况下气溶胶组分及辐射效应的遥感估算

本文利用地基遥感观测数据和气溶胶模型,分析了北京地区2013年1月份灰霾期间气溶胶中不同成分的光学与物理化学特性,并使用大气辐射传输模式估算了气溶胶中不同成分对直接辐射强迫的贡献。结果显示,在严重灰霾时期,大气中的硫酸盐等水溶性气溶胶光学厚度（440nm）显著增加,对气溶胶光学厚度的贡献达到70%以上,同时黑碳气溶胶对总光学厚度（440nm）的贡献也呈现增长趋势,是晴朗天气下的8倍以上。严重灰霾（28日）时气溶胶的直接辐射强迫显著增加,但气溶胶中不同成分对辐射效应的贡献不同,黑碳成分在气溶胶对大气层的辐射强迫中占主要贡献（57%）,而水溶性成分则在气溶胶对地表的辐射强迫中占主要贡献（60%）。