Assessing relevance of tweets for risk communication

ABSTRACT

Although Twitter is used for emergency management activities, the relevance of tweets during a hazard event is still open to debate. In this study, six different computational (i.e. Natural Language Processing) and spatiotemporal analytical approaches were implemented to assess the relevance of risk information extracted from tweets obtained during the 2013 Colorado flood event. Primarily, tweets containing information about the flooding events and its impacts were analysed. Examination of the relationships between tweet volume and its content with precipitation amount, damage extent, and official reports revealed that relevant tweets provided information about the event and its impacts rather than any other risk information that public expects to receive via alert messages. However, only 14% of the geo-tagged tweets and only 0.06% of the total fire hose tweets were found to be relevant to the event. By providing insight into the quality of social media data and its usefulness to emergency management activities, this study contributes to the literature on quality of big data. Future research in this area would focus on assessing the reliability of relevant tweets for disaster related situational awareness.     

Visualizing spatiotemporal trajectories of mobile social media users using space–time cube

The implementation of social network applications on mobile platforms has significantly elevated the activity of mobile social networking. Mobile social networking offers a channel for recording an individual’s spatiotemporal behaviors when location-detecting capabilities of devices are enabled. It also facilitates the study of time geography on an individual level, which has previously suffered from a scarcity of georeferenced movement data. In this paper, we report on the use of georeferenced tweets to display and analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of daily user trajectories. For georeferenced tweets having both location information in longitude and latitude values and recorded creation time, we apply a space–time cube approach for visualization. Compared to the traditional methodologies for time geography studies such as the travel diary-based approach, the analytics using social media data present challenges broadly associated with those of Big Data, including the characteristics of high velocity, large volume, and heterogeneity. For this study, a batch processing system has been developed for extracting spatiotemporal information from each tweet and then creating trajectories of each individual mobile Twitter user. Using social media data in time geographic research has the benefits of study area flexibility, continuous observation and non-involvement with contributors. For example, during every 30-minute cycle, we collected tweets created by about 50,000 Twitter users living in a geographic region covering New York City to Washington, DC. Each tweet can indicate the exact location of its creator when the tweet was posted. Thus, the linked tweets show a Twitter users’ movement trajectory in space and time. This study explores using data intensive computing for processing Twitter data to generate spatiotemporal information that can recreate the space–time trajectories of their creators.     

Landslide Mapping and Assessment by Integrating Landsat-8, PALSAR-2 and GIS Techniques: A Case Study from Kelantan State,Peninsular Malaysia

Integration of satellite remote sensing data and GIS techniques is an applicable approach for landslide mapping and assessment in highly vegetated regions with a tropical climate. In recent years, there have been many severe flooding and landslide events with significant damage to livestock, agricultural crop, homes, and businesses in the Kelantan river basin, Peninsular Malaysia. In this investigation, Landsat-8 and phased array type L-band synthetic aperture radar-2 (PALSAR-2) datasets and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach were used to map landslide in Kelantan river basin, Peninsular Malaysia. Landslides were determined by tracking changes in vegetation pixel data using Landsat-8 images that acquired before and after flooding. The PALSAR-2 data were used for comprehensive analysis of major geological structures and detailed characterizations of lineaments in the state of Kelantan. AHP approach was used for landslide susceptibility mapping. Several factors such as slope, aspect, soil, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault, and distance to the road were extracted from remotely sensed data and fieldwork to apply AHP approach. The excessive rainfall during the flood episode is a paramount factor for numerous landslide occurrences at various magnitudes, therefore, rainfall analysis was carried out based on daily precipitation before and during flood episode in the Kelantan state. The main triggering factors for landslides are mainly due to the extreme precipitation rate during the flooding period, apart from the favorable environmental factors such as removal of vegetation within slope areas, and also landscape development near slopes. Two main outputs of this study were landslide inventory occurrences map during 2014 flooding episode and landslide susceptibility map for entire Kelantan state. Modeled/predicted landslides with a susceptible map generated prior and post-flood episode, confirmed that intense rainfall throughout Kelantan has contributed to produce numerous landslides with various sizes. It is concluded that precipitation is the most influential factor for landslide event. According to the landslide susceptibility map, 65% of the river basin of Kelantan is found to be under the category of low landslide susceptibility zone, while 35% class in a high-altitude segment of the south and south-western part of the Kelantan state located within high susceptibility zone. Further actions and caution need to be remarked by the local related authority of the Kelantan state in very high susceptibility zone to avoid further wealth and people loss in the future. Geo-hazard mitigation programs must be conducted in the landslide recurrence regions for reducing natural catastrophes leading to loss of financial investments and death in the Kelantan river basin. This investigation indicates that integration of Landsat-8 and PALSAR-2 remotely sensed data and GIS techniques is an applicable tool for Landslide mapping and assessment in tropical environments.     

Improving Large Area Population Mapping Using Geotweet Densities

Many different methods are used to disaggregate census data and predict population densities to construct finer scale, gridded population data sets. These methods often involve a range of high resolution geospatial covariate datasets on aspects such as urban areas, infrastructure, land cover and topography; such covariates, however, are not directly indicative of the presence of people. Here we tested the potential of geo‐located tweets from the social media application, Twitter, as a covariate in the production of population maps. The density of geo‐located tweets in 1x1 km grid cells over a 2‐month period across Indonesia, a country with one of the highest Twitter usage rates in the world, was input as a covariate into a previously published random forests‐based census disaggregation method. Comparison of internal measures of accuracy and external assessments between models built with and without the geotweets showed that increases in population mapping accuracy could be obtained using the geotweet densities as a covariate layer. The work highlights the potential for such social media‐derived data in improving our understanding of population distributions and offers promise for more dynamic mapping with such data being continually produced and freely available.     

Multi-source data fusion and modeling to assess and communicate complex flood dynamics to support decision-making for downstream areas of dams: The 2011 hurricane irene and schoharie creek floods,NY

In light of climate and land use change, stakeholders around the world are interested in assessing historic and likely future flood dynamics and flood extents for decision-making in watersheds with dams as well as limited availability of stream gages and costly technical resources. This research evaluates an assessment and communication approach of combining GIS, hydraulic modeling based on latest remote sensing and topographic imagery by comparing the results to an actual flood event and available stream gages. On August 28th 2011, floods caused by Hurricane Irene swept through a large rural area in New York State, leaving thousands of people homeless, devastating towns and cities. Damage was widespread though the estimated and actual floods inundation and associated return period were still unclear since the flooding was artificially increased by flood water release due to fear of a dam break. This research uses the stream section right below the dam between two stream gages North Blenheim and Breakabeen along Schoharie Creek as a case study site to validate the approach. The data fusion approach uses a GIS, commonly available data sources, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS as well as airborne LiDAR data that were collected two days after the flood event (Aug 30, 2011). The aerial imagery of the airborne survey depicts a low flow event as well as the evidence of the record flood such as debris and other signs of damage to validate the hydrologic simulation results with the available stream gauges. Model results were also compared to the official Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood scenarios to determine the actual flood return period of the event. The dynamic of the flood levels was then used to visualize the flood and the actual loss of the Old Blenheim Bridge using Google Sketchup. Integration of multi-source data, cross-validation and visualization provides new ways to utilize pre- and post-event remote sensing imagery and hydrologic models to better understand and communicate the complex spatial-temporal dynamics, return periods and potential/actual consequences to decision-makers and the local population.     

NeuroTPR: A neuro‐net toponym recognition model for extracting locations from social media messages

Social media messages, such as tweets, are frequently used by people during natural disasters to share real‐time information and to report incidents. Within these messages, geographic locations are often described. Accurate recognition and geolocation of these locations are critical for reaching those in need. This article focuses on the first part of this process, namely recognizing locations from social media messages. While general named entity recognition tools are often used to recognize locations, their performance is limited due to the various language irregularities associated with social media text, such as informal sentence structures, inconsistent letter cases, name abbreviations, and misspellings. We present NeuroTPR, which is a Neuro‐net ToPonym Recognition model designed specifically with these linguistic irregularities in mind. Our approach extends a general bidirectional recurrent neural network model with a number of features designed to address the task of location recognition in social media messages. We also propose an automatic workflow for generating annotated data sets from Wikipedia articles for training toponym recognition models. We demonstrate NeuroTPR by applying it to three test data sets, including a Twitter data set from Hurricane Harvey, and comparing its performance with those of six baseline models.     

Geo-located Twitter as proxy for global mobility patterns

Pervasive presence of location-sharing services made it possible for researchers to gain an unprecedented access to the direct records of human activity in space and time. This article analyses geo-located Twitter messages in order to uncover global patterns of human mobility. Based on a dataset of almost a billion tweets recorded in 2012, we estimate the volume of international travelers by country of residence. Mobility profiles of different nations were examined based on such characteristics as mobility rate, radius of gyration, diversity of destinations, and inflow–outflow balance. Temporal patterns disclose the universally valid seasons of increased international mobility and the particular character of international travels of different nations. Our analysis of the community structure of the Twitter mobility network reveals spatially cohesive regions that follow the regional division of the world. We validate our result using global tourism statistics and mobility models provided by other authors and argue that Twitter is exceptionally useful for understanding and quantifying global mobility patterns.     

运用社交网络分析淹水空间信息之关联性

随着社交网络的普遍发展,大量的讯息透过智能手机发布在个人的微博或其他社交网站。台湾地区的社交网站以脸书(Facebook)的使用量最大,平均每天有近千万笔的讯息量,大多数的讯息多以食衣住行或个人讯息为主,但从本研究所撷取自2010年至2015年的数据中显示,公众在社交网站所分享的信息中具有降雨、淹水或相关灾情的讯息,而这些讯息具有极高比例的正确性。由于社交网站无法提供私人讯息,故本研究将从社交信息中,以地点为单位撷取大量的数据信息再辅以语意关键词萃取出有关可作为淹水预判的讯息数据。为检核资料的可性度,本研究透过历史台风数据FLO-2D仿真重建淹水之空间信息进行检核。从研究比对分析中发现,经萃取后的公众信息其与灾害的关联性及正确性相当显着,故透过社交网站中大量的非结构讯息,透过语意及空间的转换,可萃取转化为防灾信息,对广域的都市治理而言,此一讯息将可作为预判区域淹水或防救灾情报之有效参考。     

Investigating flash floods potential areas using ASCAT and TRMM satellites in the Western Cape Province,South Africa

The aim of the study was to evaluate flash flood potential areas in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, by integrating remote sensing products of high rainfall intensity, antecedent soil moisture and topographic wetness index (TWI). Rainfall has high spatial and temporal variability, thus needs to be quantified at an area in real time from remote sensing techniques unlike from sparsely distributed, point gauge network measurements. Western Cape Province has high spatial variation in topography which results in major differences in received rainfall within areas not far from each other. Although high rainfall was considered as the major cause of flash flood, also other contributing factors such as topography and antecedent soil moisture were considered. Areas of high flash flood potential were found to be associated with high rainfall, antecedent precipitation and TWI. Although TRMM 3B42 was found to have better rainfall intensity accuracy, the product is not available in near real time but rather at a rolling archive of three months; therefore, Multi- sensor precipitation estimate rainfall estimates available in near real time are opted for flash flood events. Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) soil moisture observations were found to have a reasonable r value of 0.58 and relatively low MAE of 3.8 when validated with in situ soil moisture measurements. The results of this study underscore the importance of ASCAT and TRMM satellite datasets in mapping areas at risk of flooding.     

Inferring the Location of Twitter Messages Based on User Relationships

User interaction in social networks, such as Twitter and Facebook, is increasingly becoming a source of useful information on daily events. The online monitoring of short messages posted in such networks often provides insight on the repercussions of events of several different natures, such as (in the recent past) the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the royal wedding in Britain and the death of Osama bin Laden. Studying the origins and the propagation of messages regarding such topics helps social scientists in their quest for improving the current understanding of human relationships and interactions. However, the actual location associated to a tweet or to a Facebook message can be rather uncertain. Some tweets are posted with an automatically determined location (from an IP address), or with a user‐informed location, both in text form, usually the name of a city. We observe that most Twitter users opt not to publish their location, and many do so in a cryptic way, mentioning non‐existing places or providing less specific place names (such as “Brazil”). In this article, we focus on the problem of enriching the location of tweets using alternative data, particularly the social relationships between Twitter users. Our strategy involves recursively expanding the network of locatable users using following‐follower relationships. Verification is achieved using cross‐validation techniques, in which the location of a fraction of the users with known locations is used to determine the location of the others, thus allowing us to compare the actual location to the inferred one and verify the quality of the estimation. With an estimate of the precision of the method, it can then be applied to locationless tweets. Our intention is to infer the location of as many users as possible, in order to increase the number of tweets that can be used in spatial analyses of social phenomena. The article demonstrates the feasibility of our approach using a dataset comprising tweets that mention keywords related to dengue fever, increasing by 45% the number of locatable tweets.     

Spatial prediction of flood-susceptible areas using frequency ratio and maximum entropy models

Modelling the flood in watersheds and reducing the damages caused by this natural disaster is one of the primary objectives of watershed management. This study aims to investigate the application of the frequency ratio and maximum entropy models for flood susceptibility mapping in the Madarsoo watershed, Golestan Province, Iran. Based on the maximum entropy and frequency ratio methods as well as analysis of the relationship between the flood events belonging to training group and the factors affecting on the risk of flooding, the weight of classes of each factor was determined in a GIS environment. Finally, prediction map of flooding potential was validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. ROC curve estimated the area under the curve for frequency ratio and the maximum entropy models as 74.3% and 92.6%, respectively, indicating that the maximum entropy model led to better results for evaluating flooding potential in the study area.     

Mapping floods due to Hurricane Sandy using NPP VIIRS and ATMS data and geotagged Flickr imagery

In this study, we present an approach to estimate the extent of large-scale coastal floods caused by Hurricane Sandy using passive optical and microwave remote sensing data. The approach estimates the water fraction from coarse-resolution VIIRS and ATMS data through mixed-pixel linear decomposition. Based on the water fraction difference, using the physical characteristics of water inundation in a basin, the flood map derived from the coarse-resolution VIIRS and ATMS measurements was extrapolated to a higher spatial resolution of 30 m using topographic information. It is found that flood map derived from VIIRS shows less inundated area than the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood map and the ground observations. The bias was mainly caused by the time difference in observations. This is because VIIRS can only detect flood under clear conditions, while we can only find some clear-sky data around the New York area on 4 November 2012, when most flooding water already receded. Meanwhile, microwave measurements can penetrate through clouds and sense surface water bodies under clear-or-cloudy conditions. We therefore developed a new method to derive flood maps from passive microwave ATMS observations. To evaluate the flood mapping method, the corresponding ground observations and the FEMA storm surge flooding (SSF) products are used. The results show there was good agreement between our ATMS and the FEMA SSF flood areas, with a correlation of 0.95. Furthermore, we compared our results to geotagged Flickr contributions reporting flooding, and found that 95% of these Flickr reports were distributed within the ATMS-derived flood area, supporting the argument that such crowd-generated content can be valuable for remote sensing operations. Overall, the methodology presented in this paper was able to produce high-quality and high-resolution flood maps over large-scale coastal areas.     

Social media insights on public perception and sentiment during and after disasters: The European floods in 2021 as a case study

Detecting and collecting public opinion via social media can provide near real-time information to decision-makers, which plays a vital role in urban disaster management and sustainable development. However, there has been little work focusing on identifying the perception and the sentiment polarity expressed by users during and after disasters, particularly regional flood events. In this article, we comprehensively analyze tweets data related to the “European floods in 2021” over time, topic, and sentiment, forming a complete workflow from data processing, topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and topic and sentiment prediction. The aim is to address the following research questions: (1) What are the public perception and main concerns during and after floods? (2) How does the public sentiment change during and after floods? Results indicate that there is a significant correlation between a flood's trend and the heat of corresponding tweets. The three topics that receive the most public concern are: (1) climate change and global warming; (2) praying for the victims: and (3) disaster situations and information. Negative sentiments are predominant during the floods and will continue for some time. We tested five different classifiers, of which TextCNN-attention turned out to deliver the best predictions in topic and sentiment prediction, and performed well for sparse flood tweets, it can be used to predict the topic and sentiment polarity of a single tweet in real-time during the flood events. Our findings can help disaster agencies to better understand the dynamics of social networks and develop stronger situational awareness towards a disaster, which can contribute to scientifically justified decision-making in urban risk management and also meet the challenges associated with the global sustainable development goal 11 (SDGs) on Sustainable Cities and Communities.     

Triangulating Social Multimedia Content for Event Localization using Flickr and Twitter

The analysis of social media content for the extraction of geospatial information and event‐related knowledge has recently received substantial attention. In this article we present an approach that leverages the complementary nature of social multimedia content by utilizing heterogeneous sources of social media feeds to assess the impact area of a natural disaster. More specifically, we introduce a novel social multimedia triangulation process that uses both Twitter and Flickr content in an integrated two‐step process: Twitter content is used to identify toponym references associated with a disaster; this information is then used to provide approximate orientation for the associated Flickr imagery, allowing us to delineate the impact area as the overlap of multiple view footprints. In this approach, we practically crowdsource approximate orientations from Twitter content and use this information to orient Flickr imagery accordingly and identify the impact area through viewshed analysis and viewpoint integration. This approach enables us to avoid computationally intensive image analysis tasks associated with traditional image orientation, while allowing us to triangulate numerous images by having them pointed towards the crowdsourced toponym location. The article presents our approach and demonstrates its performance using a real‐world wildfire event as a representative application case study.     

时序Sentinel-1A数据支持的长江中下游汛情动态监测

合成孔径雷达（SAR）因其对地观测全天候、全天时优势,成为多云多雨天气限制下洪水动态监测中不可或缺的数据来源之一。由于GEE（Google Earth Engine）云计算平台的兴起和短重访Sentinel-1数据的可获取性,洪水监测与灾害评估目前正面向动态化、广域化快速发展。顾及洪水淹没区土地覆盖变化的复杂性和发生时间的不确定性,基于时序Sentinel-1A卫星数据提出了针对大尺度范围、连续长期的汛情自动检测及动态监测方法。该方法首先,利用图像二值化分割时序SAR数据实现水体时空分布粗制图,逐像素计算时间序列中被识别为水体候选点的频率。然后,利用Sentinel-2光学影像对精度较粗的初期SAR水体提取结果进行校正,得到精细的水体分布图。最后,针对不同频率区间的淹没特点,采用差异化的时序异常检测策略识别淹没范围：对低频覆水区利用欧氏距离检测时序断点,以提取扰动强度大、淹没时间短的洪涝灾害区;对高频覆水区利用标准分数（Z-Score）检测时序断点,以提取季节性水体覆盖区。在GEE平台上利用该方法,实现了2020-05—10长江中下游地区全域洪水淹没范围时空信息的自动、快速、有效监测,揭示了不同区域汛情发展模式的差异性。本文提出的洪水快速监测方法对大尺度下的汛情动态监测、灾害定量评估和快速预警响应具有重要的现实意义。     

Space based disaster management of 2008 Kosi floods,North Bihar,India

One of the most important elements in flood disaster management is the availability of timely information for taking decisions and actions by the authorities. During the August 18, 2008 Kosi floods which impacted India and Nepal and affected more than three million people, aero-space technology proved to be a critical input for providing vital information on flood inundation. The satellite based flood inundation maps were extensively used for identifying marooned villages, submerged roads and railway tracks and carrying out the relief and rescue operations by the state agencies. Decision Support Centre (DSC) at National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) kept a constant watch on the flood situation. More than 200 flood inundation maps, using about 30 satellite datasets were generated and provided in near real time mode to the state agencies during August to October, 2008. DSC efforts were primarily focused in providing an overall picture of the flood situation in a short span of time to the state agencies. The present paper discusses about the operational use of remote sensing technology for near real time flood mapping, monitoring of Kosi floods and the satellite based observations made for the Kosi river breach.     

无人机倾斜摄影三维模型在城市雨洪风险评估中的应用

研究城市雨洪风险问题，对提高城市洪涝灾害监测、预报的准确性，以及促进城市防洪决策制定具有重要的意义。鉴于高精度的城市三维模型可以提供丰富地理信息，便于准确分析淹没情况，本文针对当前城市洪涝模型对地形数据的高敏感性，且雨洪风险评估研究的准确性受限于地形数据精度的问题，提出利用无人机倾斜摄影测量技术重建高精度实景三维模型，并结合GIS的空间分析功能，以淹没深度为关键指标进行研究区的雨洪风险评估。通过提取不同重现期下研究区的淹没深度信息，进行可视化渲染实现三维淹没分析，可以直观地看到研究区的淹没情况，作为暴雨内涝风险管理依据，同时对城市规划布局有一定的参考价值。     

SensePlace3: a geovisual framework to analyze place–time–attribute information in social media

SensePlace3 (SP3) is a geovisual analytics framework and web application that supports overview + detail analysis of social media, focusing on extracting meaningful information from the Twitterverse. SP3 leverages social media related to crisis events. It differs from most existing systems by enabling an analyst to obtain place-relevant information from tweets that have implicit as well as explicit geography. Specifically, SP3 includes not just the ability to utilize the explicit geography of geolocated tweets but also analyze implicit geography by recognizing and geolocating references in both tweet text, which indicates locations tweeted about, and in Twitter profiles, which indicates locations affiliated with users. Key features of SP3 reported here include flexible search and filtering capabilities to support information foraging; an ingest, processing, and indexing pipeline that produces near real-time access for big streaming data; and a novel strategy for implementing a web-based multi-view visual interface with dynamic linking of entities across views. The SP3 system architecture was designed to support crisis management applications, but its design flexibility makes it easily adaptable to other domains. We also report on a user study that provided input to SP3 interface design and suggests next steps for effective spatiotemporal analytics using social media sources.     

Detecting Non‐personal and Spam Users on Geo‐tagged Twitter Network

With the rapid growth and popularity of mobile devices and location‐aware technologies, online social networks such as Twitter have become an important data source for scientists to conduct geo‐social network research. Non‐personal accounts, spam users and junk tweets, however, pose severe problems to the extraction of meaningful information and the validation of any research findings on tweets or twitter users. Therefore, the detection of such users is a critical and fundamental step for twitter‐related geographic research. In this study, we develop a methodological framework to: (1) extract user characteristics based on geographic, graph‐based and content‐based features of tweets; (2) construct a training dataset by manually inspecting and labeling a large sample of twitter users; and (3) derive reliable rules and knowledge for detecting non‐personal users with supervised classification methods. The extracted geographic characteristics of a user include maximum speed, mean speed, the number of different counties that the user has been to, and others. Content‐based characteristics for a user include the number of tweets per month, the percentage of tweets with URLs or Hashtags, and the percentage of tweets with emotions, detected with sentiment analysis. The extracted rules are theoretically interesting and practically useful. Specifically, the results show that geographic features, such as the average speed and frequency of county changes, can serve as important indicators of non‐personal users. For non‐spatial characteristics, the percentage of tweets with a high human factor index, the percentage of tweets with URLs, and the percentage of tweets with mentioned/replied users are the top three features in detecting non‐personal users.     

Flood risk analysis in the Kosi river basin, north Bihar using multi-parametric approach of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

The Kosi river in north Bihar plains, eastern India presents a challenge in terms of long and recurring flood hazard. Despite a long history of flood control management in the basin for more than 5 decades, the river continues to bring a lot of misery through extensive flooding. This paper revisits the flooding problem in the Kosi river basin and presents an in-depth analysis of flood hydrology. We integrate the hydrological analysis with a GIS-based flood risk mapping in parts of the basin. Typical hydrological characteristics of the Kosi river include very high discharge variability, and high sediment flux from an uplifting hinterland. Annual peak discharges often exceed the mean annual flood and the low-lying tracts of the alluvial plains are extensively inundated year after year. Our flood risk analysis follows a multi-parametric approach using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and integrates geomorphological, land cover, topographic and social (population density) parameters to propose a Flood Risk Index (FRI). The flood risk map is validated with long-term inundation maps and offers a cost-effective solution for planning mitigation measures in flood-prone areas.