北方农牧交错区草原利用与禁牧政策的关键问题研究

草原作为我国最大的陆地生态系统，对生态安全、生物多样性、畜牧业等具有重要的意义，但草原生态承载力有限，随着人口和社会经济压力的不断增加，对草原的过度利用导致草原生态破坏严重，草原生态系统面临巨大威胁。为了恢复和保护草原生态系统，2002年前后国家在草原破坏严重的地区实施禁牧政策。政策实施以来，草原得到很大程度的恢复，生态效果明显，但政策实施过程中也出现了一些新的问题。探索北方农牧交错区草原利用效率和存在的问题可为进一步制定相关政策提供依据，对北方农牧交错区的生态环境修复和可持续发展有重要的意义。本文通过对相关文献的综述和典型禁牧区的研究，从禁牧政策的效益、问题和农户支持度等方面，进行了研究和论述，主要结论包括：（1）北方农牧交错区草原生态承载力低，生态赤字严重。（2）禁牧政策虽对生态环境的改善起到很大作用，但在一些禁牧区，当地政府不能因地制宜实施禁牧政策，再加上配套实施和基础设施滞后，草场界限模糊以及政策宣传和监管力度不够等问题导致了新的草原退化，草原生态恢复大打折扣。（3）禁牧政策实施对农户的生产和生活造成一定的影响，部分农户无法顺利完成生计方式的转型，又因生态补偿标准低和补偿有失公平等问题无法弥补禁牧造成的经济损失，导致农户生活水平有所下降，加深了生态环境与农户生计之间的矛盾，部分农户对禁牧政策的支持度较低。     

中国草畜平衡状态时空演变指示的草地生态保护格局

中国草原牧区作为重要生态安全屏障和草地畜牧业生产基地,其草畜平衡状态直接影响草地退化与恢复,进而影响草地生态系统服务能力的强弱。本文分析了2000—2015年主要草原牧区草地植被覆盖、牧草供给、草畜平衡状态的时空变化特征,深入探讨草地退化与恢复及载畜压力下草地生态系统保护与恢复空间格局。结果表明：过去16年主要草原牧区草地面积净减少约163万hm²,6.7%的草地出现植被覆盖退化,而5.4%的草地呈现植被覆盖明显恢复。天然草地牧草供给量以增加为主,年增率约0.3 kg/hm²,然而其载畜压力亦持续增加,不考虑补饲的载畜压力指数高达3.8,除内蒙古东北部、青藏高原中部仍有载畜潜力,其余多处于超载状态;考虑实际冷季补饲的载畜压力指数约3.1,内蒙古中东部有所缓解;假设冷季全额补饲则载畜压力指数减至1.9,内蒙古、青藏高原等区域明显缓解。叠加上述数据,本文针对自然保护地、牧区、半农半牧区和农区等不同区域的草地生态保护格局,提出了平衡草地生态保护与畜牧生产利用的不同发展策略。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

Ecological Carrying Capacity of Grasslands and Animal Husbandry Sustainability in Central Asia

Grassland ecosystems are one of the most important terrestrial ecosystems on the earth. Central Asia has the largest contiguous grazing area in the world and good conditions for the development of animal husbandry. However, in the past 30 years, the grassland ecosystem in Central Asia has experienced significant degradation, and the livestock industry has also experienced an overall decline to the point that livestock products are now dependent on imports. The ecological footprint method was used to analyze the change trend and characteristics of grassland ecological carrying capacity and ecological occupation in Central Asia. The grassland ecological capacity in Central Asia was found to be much higher than the global level, and great potential still remains for further development and utilization. The international trade of livestock products in Central Asian countries showed a deficit, and the net import of livestock products increased year by year. Net imports reached 9.5% in 1992-2016, and the dependence on foreign countries increased significantly, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of animal husbandry in Central Asia. In the future, the counties of Central Asia should optimize the aspects of policy, management and technology to improve the productivity of grassland animal husbandry, strengthen grassland ecological protection, and realize the coordinated and sustainable development of their grassland ecological economic systems.     

羌塘草原野生动物保护的生态补偿成本研究(英文)

生态保护的成本是生态补偿标准的核心组成部分,一般由直接成本、机会成本和发展成本构成。本文以羌塘自然保护区涉及的那曲地区为例,采用恢复成本法和机会成本法对牧民参与野生动物保护的直接成本和机会成本进行了核算。研究过程中,借用中国草地承载力评估中的标准羊单位,把草地生态系统、草食性野生动物和价值评估有机地联系起来,为草原地区野生动物保护的生态补偿提供了一个有效的评估工具。评估结果表明,那曲地区牧民参与野生动物保护的成本是每年5.69亿元,其中直接成本是1.19亿元,机会成本是4.5亿元,机会成本占总成本的79%。机会成本是由于草食性野生动物的啃食与踩踏导致草场必须禁牧致使牧民放弃的经济收入。显然,羌塘自然保护区草食性野生动物对草场的损害构成了生态补偿的主体。如果按照那曲地区中度以上退化草地的面积计算,则牧民保护野生动物的单位面积成本是每年57元,按照那曲地区人口计算,参与野生动物保护的人均成本是每年1482元。这一结果并不等于生态补偿标准,但可以作为补偿标准的低限。     

Simulating net primary production of grasslands in northeastern Asia using MODIS data from 2000 to 2005

The net primary production (NPP) of grasslands in northeastern Asia was estimated using improved CASA model with MODIS data distributed from 2000 and ground data as driving variables from 2000 to 2005. Average annual NPP was 146.05 g C m?2 yr?1 and average annual total NPP was 0.32 Pg C yr?1 in all grasslands during the period. It was shown that average annual grassland NPP in the whole northeastern Asia changed dramatically from 2000 to 2005, with the highest value of 174.80 g C m?2 yr?1 in 2005 and the lowest value of 125.65 g C m?2 yr?1 in 2001. On regional scale, average annual grassland NPP of 179.71 g C m?2 yr?1 in southeastern Russia was the highest among the three main grassland regions in the six years. Grasslands in northern China exhibited the highest average annual total NPP of 0.16 Pg C yr?1 and contributed 51.42% of the average annual total grassland NPP in northeastern Asia. Grassland NPP in northeastern Asia also showed a clear seasonal pattern with the highest NPP occurred in July every year. Average monthly grassland NPP in southeastern Russia was the highest from May to August while average monthly grassland NPP in northern China showed the highest NPP before May and after August. The change rate distribution of grassland NPP between the former three years and the latter three years showed grassland NPP changed slightly between the two stages in most regions, and that NPP change rate in 80.98% of northeastern Asia grasslands was between –0.2 and 0.2. Grassland NPP had close correlation with precipitation and temperature, that indicates climate change will influence the grassland NPP and thus have a great impact on domestic livestock in this region in future.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics Analysis of Grassland Ecosystem Pressure in Kazakhstan

Affected by climate change and policy factors, Kazakhstan is the country with the most severe ecological degradation and grassland conflicts in Central Asia. Therefore, studying the state of grassland carrying resources in Kazakhstan is particularly important for understanding the responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change and human activities. Based on Kazakhstan's remote sensing data and animal husbandry statistics, this study analyzes the patterns of changes in grassland ecosystems in Kazakhstan based on the supply and consumption of these ecosystems. The results show that: 1) From 2003 to 2017, the number of livestock raised in Kazakhstan showed a trend of sustained and steady growth. Due to freezing damage, the scale of livestock farming decreased in 2011, but a spatial difference in the livestock farming structure was not obvious. 2) The fluctuation of grassland supply in Kazakhstan has increased, while the consumption due to animal husbandry has also continued to increase, resulting in an increasing pressure on the grassland carrying capacity. 3) Between 2003 and 2017, the overall grassland carrying status of Kazakhstan have been abundant, but the grassland carrying pressure index has shown a steadily increasing trend, the grassland carrying pressure is growing, and it is mainly determined by grassland productivity. The greater pressure in lower Kyzylorda state, the southern Kazakhstan state of the cultivated land and the northern Kazakhstan state has gradually expanded to include the agro-pastoral zone and the semi-desert zone.     

呼伦贝尔草原火时空格局及特征分析

以Fire_CCI51为主要数据源,应用GIS空间分析技术对呼伦贝尔地区2001—2019年草原火的时空分布进行了研究,结果发现：呼伦贝尔草原火时间上具有年际波动较大、循环周期不定和春、秋两季双峰式集中的特点;空间上集中分布在东部森林草原、边境线附近,呈现出东多西少、北多南少的格局。利用相关分析方法对主要气象因子（平均降水量、最高气温、最小相对湿度、最大风速）与草原火之间的关系进行了深入分析,发现气象因子与草原火之间不存在显著相关;通过对呼伦贝尔市1981—2015年的草原起火原因统计数据分析发现,人类活动是导致草原火发生的主要因素。应用空间分析方法对边境线20 km缓冲区内的草原火进行了提取,发现境外过火面积远高于境内而且俄罗斯的过火面积远高于蒙古和中国。     

Shrubs proliferated within a six-year exclosure in a temperate grassland—Spatiotemporal relationships between vegetation and soil variables

Overgrazing has been considered one of the maj or causes that trigger shrub encroachment of grassland. Proliferation of shrubs in grassland is recognized as an important indicator of grassland degradation and desertification. In China, various conservation measures, including enclosures to reduce livestock grazing, have been taken to reverse the trend of grassland desertification, yet shrubs have been reported to increase in the grasslands over the past decades. In late 2007, we set up a 400-m-by-50-m exclosure in a long-term overgrazed temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, with the ob- jective to quantify the spatiotemporal relationship between vegetation dynamics, soil variables, and grazing exclusion. Soil moisture was continuously monitored within the exclosure, and cover and aboveground biomass of the shrubs were measured inside the exclosure in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013, and outside the exclosure in 2012 and 2013. We found the average shrub cover and biomass significantly increased in the six years by 103 % and 120%, respectively. The result supported the hypothesis that releasing grazing pressure following long-term overgrazing tends to trigger shrub invasion into grassland. Our results, limited to a single gradient, suggest that any conservation measures with quick release of overgrazing pressure by enclosure or other similar means might do just the opposite to accelerate shrub en- croachment in grassland. The changes in vegetation cover and biomass were regressed on the temporal average of the soil moisture content by means of the generalized least square technique to quantify the effect of the spatial autocor- relation. The result indicates that the grass cover and biomass significantly increased with the top, but decreased with the bottom layer soil moisture. The shrub cover and biomass, on the other hand, decreased with the top, but increased with bottom soil moisture, although the regression coefficients for the shrubs were not statistically significant. Hence this study supports the two-layered soil model which assumes grasses and shrubs use belowground resources in dif- ferent depths.     

沙质草地土壤动物的研究进展及建议

中国北方农牧交错带,生态背景脆弱,在自然因素和人为活动的严重干扰下,生态系统遭到了严重破坏,草地面临严重沙化的威胁。而土壤动物是沙质草地生态系统物质循环和能量流动的不可或缺的一环,对保护和改善土地资源,控制由于各种原因而导致的土地退化、土地沙漠化有着重要意义。从沙质草地土壤动物的物种组成、研究方法、时空动态变化及其对生态系统的作用等方面进行了总结,分析了当前沙地土壤动物研究中存在的问题,并为未来沙地土壤动物研究提出了一些建议,从而为沙质草地生态系统恢复和重建及沙漠化逆转等提供了基础资料。     

基于PRA方法的农户对干旱区草原生态保护政策的认知分析

自2000年以来,中国草原牧区实施的一系列草原建设和保护工程引起了草地利用方式和农牧民传统生产模式的改变。农牧户作为生产经营活动的直接参与者和草原生态保护政策的实施主体,其认知态度与行为选择将直接影响政策实施效果,对草原生态环境有着直接影响。以黑河上游肃南县干旱区草原为例,选取了自由放牧区、半农半牧区和舍饲养殖区三个不同类型牧区,采用参与式农户评估方法（PRA）,分析了农牧民对草原生态保护政策的认知情况和实施效果及其在当前政策背景下倾向性的草原放牧措施。结果表明：（1）相对宽松的草地资源约束使自由放牧区内农牧民的草原保护政策认知水平较高,58.1%的农牧户对季节性休牧和补贴数额有较高的认同度,但存在超载放牧现象。（2）半农半牧区和舍饲养殖区农牧民对草原保护政策的认知水平偏低,同时,舍饲养殖导致的生产成本上升使该趋势进一步加剧,71.7%的农牧户响应禁牧政策的积极性不高且认为禁牧补贴数额不合理。建议从增加非农就业机会、完善农村金融服务体系、细化草原补奖标准和调整草地资源约束的角度因地制宜采取配套措施,实现保护生态和农牧民增收双目标。     

新疆牧草地资源利用动态变化及其绩效分析

利用土地变更调查数据,在分析了新疆牧草地的利用现状的基础上,运用定性与定量相结合的方法对新疆牧草地的总量时序变化、变化方向和变化速度及其区域差异进行了系统研究,结果表明:新疆牧草地数量近年来呈缓慢减少的趋势,主要是转移为林地和耕地,其中以天然草地的减少为主;新疆14地州的牧草地变化情况有较大的区域差异,分为缓慢增加区、较快减少区和缓慢减少区三类地区.同时,牧草地资源的变化引起了一系列经济、社会和生态效应,其中经济和社会绩效较好,生态环境效益较差.     

Practical Exploration of Ecological Restoration and Management of the Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands System in the Irtysh River Basin in Altay,Xinjiang

The Irtysh River Basin refers to a water conservation area and a vital ecological barrier in Xinjiang and also partially in Central Asia. Here, the technical solution for the ecological protection and the restoration of the Mountains-Rivers-Forests-Farmlands-Lakes-Grasslands system (MRFFLGs) pilot project in the Irtysh River Basin is refined, by complying with the core concept, i.e., “mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands are a community of life”. The solution stresses the specific characteristics of ecologically protecting and restoring MRFFLGs in the Irtysh River Basin, which aim to reduce ecological water use, soil erosion, forest and grassland degradation, the ecological destruction of mines, water environment pollution and other issues. With overall protection, system restoration, district policy, and problem orientation as the overarching ideas, 162 sub-items of 44 major items with seven categories have been designed and implemented in the project. In addition, some highlights of the management experience that are worth promoting when the pilot project is being implemented are also summarized (e.g., the use of laws to solve historical problems, scientific argumentation and third-party evaluation, proactive guidance for the engagement of people, modern information technology support, and integration with local sustainable development). Lastly, four policy suggestions are proposed: (1) Building a model of systematic protection and restoration by using basins as the basic geographic unit; (2) Establishing and optimizing key weak links of systems and mechanisms; (3) Focusing on remedying the shortcomings of regional talents, technology and capital; and (4) Promoting the MRFFLGs project to integrate “industry, city, people, and tourism” for carrying out a large-scale system project.     

恢复草地和退化草地土壤微生物类群数量的分布特征

内蒙古鄂尔多斯皇甫川流域恢复草地和退化草地土壤微生物类群数量分布特征的研究结果表明: 恢复草地和退化草地土壤微生物各类群数量是, 好气性细菌>放线菌>芽孢型细菌>真菌; 0~10cm的微生物总数超过其他土层, 其垂直分布的基本趋势是0~10cm>10~20cm>20~30cm>30~40cm>40~50cm; 微生物各类群中, 细菌是最多的一个类群, 这一结果取决于好气性细菌的数量; 恢复草地各土层中的土壤微生物类群数量均高于退化草地; 在恢复草地的土壤微生物数量中, 好气性细菌, 芽孢型细菌, 放线菌, 真菌为秋季大于夏季; 土壤微生物数量与土壤肥力有着密切的关系, 恢复草地是防止皇甫川流域草地退化, 提高土壤质量, 保护生态环境的重要措施。     

Characteristics of grassland degradation and driving forces in the source region of the Yellow River from 1985 to 2000*

The source region of the Yellow River is located in the middle east of the Tibetan Plateau in northwest China. The total area is about 51,700 km2, mainly covered by grassland (79%), unused land (16%) and water (4%). The increasing land utilization in this area has increased the risk of environmental degradation. The land use/cover data (1985 and 2000) provided by the Data Center of Resources and Environment in the Chinese Academy of Sciences were used to analyze the land cover change in the source region of the Yellow River. DEM (1:250,000) data, roads and settlement data were used to analyze the spatial characteristics of grasslands degradation. The ArcGIS 9 software was used to convert data types and do the overlay, reclassification and zonal statistic analysis. Results show that grassland degradation is the most important land cover change in the study area, which occupied 8.24% of the region’s total area. Human activities are the main causes of the grassland degradation in the source region of the Yellow River: 1) the degradation rate is higher on the sunny slope than on the shady slope; 2) the grassland degradation rate decreases with an increase in the elevation, and it has a correlation coefficient of -0.93; 3) the nearer to the settlements the grassland is, the higher the degradation rate. Especially within a distance range of 12 km to the settlements, the grassland degradation rate is highly related with the distance, with a coefficient of -0.99; and 4) in the range of 4 km, the degradation rate decreases with the increase of distance to the roads, with a correlation coefficient of -0.98. Besides some physical factors, human activities have been the most important driving forces of the grassland degradation in the source region of the Yellow River since 1985. To resolve the degradation problems, population control is essential, and therefore, it can reduce the social demand of livestock products from the grassland. To achieve sustainable development, it needs to improve the management of grassland ecosystem.     

Current Status and Future Trends for Eco-compensation in China

Eco-compensation, known as payment for ecosystem services, is defined in China as an institutional arrangement for regulating the relationship of economic interests among ecological protectors, beneficiaries and destructors in order to protect ecological service function and foster harmony between people and nature with non-market and market tools including transfer payment, taxes and fees. Reasonable compensation to ecological service providers significantly contributes to the protection of ecological assets and effective supply of ecological services by adopting transfer payments or market transactions on the basis of comprehensively considering the costs of ecological protection, costs of development opportunity and ecological service values. It is helpful for implementing a strategy for main functional areas. The building of eco-compensation mechanisms is therefore highly valued as the most important institutional guarantee for promoting the ecological civilization. Existing eco-compensation mechanisms mainly fall into three categories: exchequer based transfer payment, vertical and horizontal, and market based compensation in China. The institutional framework has been primarily established, inclusive of a forest ecological benefit compensation fund system, grassland eco-compensation system and transfer payment system of national key ecological function areas. Under the framework, various areas and departments have actively explored the building of an eco-compensation system and achieved important progress for forests, grassland, wetlands, river basins and water resources, exploitation of mineral resources, oceans and national key ecological functions areas. However, the eco-compensation system dominated by vertical transfer payments is still far from perfect in China. The interest regulation pattern of “developer to protect and beneficiary to compensate” has not been formed. Its role in the protection of the ecological environment has not been brought into full play. China should improve eco-compensation systems by intensifying eco-compensation inputs, strengthening government responsibility, diversifying eco-compensation tools, and establishing institutional systems.     

青藏高原草地地上生物量和理论载畜量

准确模拟和预测草地地上生物量(Aboveground biomass,AGB)和理论载畜量对于维持草地生态系统平衡、优化放牧管理至关重要。当前很多研究以围栏外草地AGB为基础,估算了青藏高原草地AGB的现存量。但是,牛羊啃食后的草地AGB现存量无法准确评估草地理论载畜量。围栏内草地不受家畜采食影响,其年际变率由环境因子驱动,可视为草地潜在AGB (potential AGB,AGB_p),更适用于草地理论载畜量的评估。本研究以青藏高原345个围栏内AGB观测数据为基础,结合气候、土壤和地形数据,利用随机森林算法构建草地潜在地上生物量估算模型,并对当前气候条件(2000-2018年)和未来20年(2021-2040年)4种气候变化情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下的草地AGB_p和高寒草地理论载畜量进行模拟与预测。结果表明:(1)随机森林算法可准确模拟当前气候条件下的青藏高寒草地AGB_p(R²=0.76,P<0.001);2000-2018年青藏高寒草地AGB_p平均值为102.4 g m^-2,时间上增加趋势不明显(P>0.05);AGB_p年际波动和生长季降水显著正相关(R²=0.57,P<0.001),和生长季温度日较差显著负相关(R²=0.51,P<0.001)。(2)当前气候条件下,青藏高寒草地平均理论载畜量为0.94 SSU ha^-1(standardized sheep unit ha^-1);在过去20年约有54.1%草地理论载畜量呈提升状态。(3)和当前相比,未来20年青藏高原中部和北部草地AGB_p和理论载畜量呈下降态势。因此,建议未来在厘清气候变化影响下草畜关系的基础上进行有针对性的草牧业规划和管理,以缓解区域气候变化引起的草畜矛盾。     

黄河源地区草地退化空间特征

There are about 400 million hm2 of grassland in China, which account for 13% of the grassland in the world and 41% of the total land area of China. It is the biggest terrestrial ecosystem in China (Liu et al., 2003). Due to impacts of global change and ec…     

Effects of grazing and climate change on sandy grassland ecosystems in Inner Mongolia

To understand the effects of grazing activities and climate change on sandy grassland ecosystems in northern China, a livestock field grazing and enclosure experiment was conducted from 1992 to 2006 in Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia. The results showed that sustained heavy grazing resulted in serious degradation of the vegetation; moderate grazing can maintain vegetation stabilization; and light grazing can promote rapid restoration of degraded vegetation. The livestock productivity was the highest in the moderate grazing grassland, and sustained heavy grazing resulted in rapid decrease of the livestock productivity. Heavy grazing can cause a retrogressive succession of grassland vegetation, whereas moderate and light grazing may promote progressive succession of plant species. The effects of changing climate on succession processes were not significant in the short term; a warm-humid climate is favorable to restoration of degraded vegetation, whereas a sustained warm-drought climate may result in degradation of grassland vegetation. Heavy livestock grazing should be stopped for the sustainable use of grassland; the proper grazing intensity for sandy grassland is two to three sheep or sheep equivalents per hectare in Inner Mongolia.     

黄河流域城市群扩张的时空格局演化及情景模拟——以呼包鄂榆城市群为例

黄河流域城镇扩张对区域景观格局影响显著,城市群人口聚集与增长引发了流域“人-地”矛盾和“空间冲突”等一系列生态环境问题。基于土地利用数据和FLUS模型对2025年和2035年呼包鄂榆城市群城镇化与土地利用时空演化特征进行多情景模拟预测。结果表明：① 1990—2018年呼包鄂榆城市群整体发展水平较低,建设用地面积经历了“平稳增加-缓慢增加-急剧增加”的变化过程,区域总体以草地为主,其占土地总面积的50%以上,其次是未利用土地和耕地,林地和建设用地次之。② 城市群扩张最剧烈地区在空间上主要发生在呼和浩特市、包头市等城市主城区,且扩张模式以外延式扩张为主,扩张来源主要是耕地、草地等生态用地。③ 三种情景模拟发现,2025年和2035年区域土地利用变化的空间结构和特征差异明显。自然发展情景下,城市扩张不受约束,高速增长占据了大量生态用地;加入生态约束条件很好的控制了对草地和林地的占用;经济发展情景下,城市扩张将进一步占据更多的未利用土地和耕地。本研究通过城市群扩张时空格局演化及情景模拟分析,尝试为区域规划、城市空间规划和区域生态空间保护提供多角度、多情景和可选择的政策决策参考。