基于模型的中国东北地区土地利用时空格局变化研究（英文）

Spatially explicit modeling techniques recently emerged as an alternative to monitor land use changes. This study adopted the well-known CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model to analyze the spatio-temporal land use changes in a hot-spot in Northeast China(NEC). In total,13 driving factors were selected to statistically analyze the spatial relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors and individual land use types. These relationships were then used to simulate land use dynamic changes during 1980–2010 at a 1 km spatial resolution,and to capture the overall land use change patterns. The obtained results indicate that increases in cropland area in NEC were mainly distributed in the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain during 1980–2000,with a small reduction between 2000 and 2010. An opposite pattern was identified for changes in forest areas. Forest decreases were mainly distributed in the Khingan Mountains and the Changbai Mountains between 1980 and 2000,with a slight increase during 2000–2010. The urban areas have expanded to occupy surrounding croplands and grasslands,particularly after the year 2000. More attention is needed on the newly gained croplands,which have largely replaced wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain over the last decade. Land use change patterns identified here should be considered in future policy making so as to strengthen local eco-environmental security.     

中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合特征与机制(英文)

Land use transition refers to the changes in land use morphology (both dominant morphology and recessive morphology) of a certain region over a certain period of time driven by socio-economic change and innovation, and it usually corresponds to the transition of socio-economic development phase. In China, farmland and rural housing land are the two major sources of land use transition. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of farmland and rural housing land transition in China, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 2000 and 2008, and the data from the Ministry of Land and Resources of China. The outcomes indicated that: (1) during 2000-2008, the cor-relation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change is -0.921, and it shows that the change pattern of farmland and rural housing land is uncoordinated; (2) the result of Spear-man rank correlation analysis shows that rural housing land change has played a major role in the mutual transformation of farmland and rural housing land; and (3) it shows a high-degree spatial coupling between farmland and rural housing land change in southeast China during 2000-2008. In general, farmland and rural housing land transition in China is driven by socio-economic, bio-physical and managerial three-dimensional driving factors through the interactions among rural population, farmland and rural housing land. However, the spatio-temporal coupling phenomenon and mechanism of farmland and rural housing land transition in China are largely due to the "dual-track" structure of rural-urban develop-ment.     

中国山区农村土地利用转型及其对土地整治的政策启示（英文）

The cultivation of mountainous land results in water loss and soil erosion. With rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, labor emigration relieves the cultivation of mountainous areas in regions with high poverty and leads to a significant land use transition. This research built an analysis framework for "land use transition – driving mechanism – effects –responses" for mountainous areas of China undergoing land use transition and then proposed the direction of mountainous land consolidation. The results showed that the turning point of land use morphology was the core of rural land use transition in mountainous areas. The expansion of cropland and the contraction of forestland have transitioned to the abandonment of cropland and the expansion of forestland; this transition was the main characteristic of the dominant land use change. Land marginalization and land ecological functional recovery were the main characteristics of the recessive land use transition in mountainous areas. Socioeconomic factors were the primary driving forces during land use transition in mountainous areas, with labor emigration being the most direct force. The rising costs of farming and the challenging living conditions causing labor emigration were fundamental driving forces. Rural land use transition in mountainous areas reduced the vulnerability of the ecological function of land ecosystems. The advantages and disadvantages of the socioeconomic effects should focus on rural development of mountainous areas as well as the livelihood of farmers; this should be further supported by empirical and quantitative research. Rural land use transition of mountainous areas improves natural restoration and is related to socioeconomic development. Rural land consolidation of mountainous areas should conform to land use transition,with the goal of shifting from the increase of cultivated land to the synergies of ecological and environmental protection.     

21世纪初中国土地利用变化的空间格局与驱动力

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

Development of land use transitions research in China

With the introduction of the concept of land use transition into China, related researches have been carried out extensively in the past two decades, which enrich the knowledge of land system science. This paper describes the development of research on land use transitions in China from the perspectives of conceptual connotations, theoretical model, research methods, and research progress and prospects. With the in-depth investigation of land use transitions, the concept and connotations of land use morphology are developed and encapsulated as two kinds, i.e., dominant morphology and recessive morphology. The dominant morphology refers to the land use structure of a certain region over a certain period of time, with features such as the quantity and spatial pattern of land use types. While the recessive morphology includes the land use features in the aspects of quality, property rights, management mode, input, output and function. Accordingly, the concept of land use transition is further developed, and the theoretical model of regional land use transitions is established. Thereafter, three innovative integrated approaches to study land use transitions are put forward, i.e., multidisciplinary research framework for recessive land use transition, transect and horizontal comparison. To date, there have been 62 Ph.D. and 166 M.S. dissertations on the topic of "land use transition" in China. During 2002–2019, the National Natural Science Foundation of China has funded 48 research programs on the theme of "land use transition". As such, the Chinese scholars have adapted the concept derived from western literature to the situations and experiences in China.     

环京津贫困带土地利用变化多情景模拟与景观格局动态变化——以河北省张家口市为例（英文）

Land use/cover change has been recognized as a key component in global change and has attracted increasing attention in recent decades. Scenario simulation of land use change is an important issue in the study of land use/cover change, and plays a key role in land use prediction and policy decision. Based on the remote sensing data of Landsat TM images in 1989, 2000 and 2010, scenario simulation and landscape pattern analysis of land use change driven by socio-economic development and ecological protection policies were reported in Zhangjiakou city, a representative area of the Poverty Belt around Beijing and Tianjin. Using a CLUE-S model, along with socio-economic and geographic data, the land use simulation of four scenarios–namely, land use planning scenario, natural development scenario, ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario–were explored according to the actual conditions of Zhangjiakou city, and the landscape pattern characteristics under different land use scenarios were analyzed. The results revealed the following:(1) Farmland, grassland, water body and unused land decreased significantly during 1989–2010, with a decrease of 11.09%, 2.82%, 18.20% and 31.27%, respectively, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased over the same period, with an increase of 5.71%, 20.91% and 38.54%, respectively. The change rate and intensity of land use improved in general from 1989 to 2010. The integrated dynamic degree of land use increased from 2.21% during 1989–2000 to 3.96% during 2000–2010.(2) Land use changed significantly throughout 1989–2010. The total area that underwent land use change was 4759.14 km2, accounting for 12.53% of the study area. Land use transformation was characterized by grassland to forestland, and by farmland to forestland and grassland.(3) Under the land use planning scenario, farmland, grassland, water body and unused land shrank significantly, while garden land, forestland and construction land increased. Under the natural development scenario, construction land and forestland increased in 2020 compared with 2010, while farmland and unused land decreased. Under the ecological-oriented scenario, forestland increased dra-matically, which mainly derived from farmland, grassland and unused land. Under the farmland protection scenario, farmland was well protected and stable, while construction land expansion was restricted.(4) The landscape patterns of the four scenarios in 2020, compared with those in 2010, were more reasonable. Under the land use planning scenario, the landscape pattern tended to be more optimized. The landscape became less fragmented and heterogeneous with the natural development scenarios. However, under the ecological-oriented scenario and farmland protection scenario, landscape was characterized by fragmentation, and spatial heterogeneity of landscape was significant. Spatial differences in landscape patterns in Zhangjiakou city also existed.(5) The spatial distribution of land use could be explained, to a large extent, by the driving factors, and the simulation results tallied with the local situations, which provided useful information for decision-makers and planners to take appropriate land management measures in the area. The application of the combined Markov model, CLUE-S model and landscape metrics in Zhangjiakou city suggests that this methodology has the capacity to reflect the complex changes in land use at a scale of 300 m×300 m and can serve as a useful tool for analyzing complex land use driving factors.     

1990–2010年中国土地覆被变化引起反照率改变的辐射强迫(英文)

Land cover change affects surface radiation budget and energy balance by changing surface albedo and further impacts the regional and global climate. In this article, high spatial and temporal resolution satellite products were used to analyze the driving mechanism for surface albedo change caused by land cover change during 1990–2010. In addition, the annual-scale radiative forcing caused by surface albedo changes in China's 50 ecological regions were calculated to reveal the biophysical mechanisms of land cover change affecting climate change at regional scale. Our results showed that the national land cover changes were mainly caused by land reclamation, grassland desertification and urbanization in past 20 years, which were almost induced by anthropogenic activities. Grassland and forest area decreased by 0.60% and 0.11%, respectively. The area of urban and farmland increased by 0.60% and 0.19%, respectively. The mean radiative forcing caused by land cover changes during 1990–2010 was 0.062 W/m2 in China, indicating a warming climate effect. However, spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing was huge among different ecological regions. Farmland conversing to urban construction land, the main type of land cover change for the urban and suburban agricultural ecological region in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, caused an albedo reduction by 0.00456 and a maximum positive radiative forcing of 0.863 W/m2, which was presented as warming climate effects. Grassland and forest conversing to farmland, the main type of land cover change for the temperate humid agricultural and wetland ecological region in Sanjiang Plain, caused an albedo increase by 0.00152 and a maximum negative radiative forcing of 0.184 W/m2, implying cooling climate effects.     

华北平原禹城市耕地变化与驱动力分析(英文)

Taking Yucheng, a typical agricultural county in Shandong Province as a case, this study applied Logistic regression models to spatially identify factors affecting farmland changes. Using two phases of high resolution imageries in 2001 and 2009, the study obtained the land use and farmland change data in 2001-2009. It was found that the farmland was reduced by 5.14% in the period, mainly due to the farmland conversion to forest land and built-up land, although part of forest land and unused land was converted to farmland. The results of Logistic regressions indicated that location, population growth and farmer income were main factors affecting the farmland conversion, while soil types and pro-curvature were main natural factors controlling the distribution of farmland changes. Regional differences and temporal-spatial variables of farmland changes affected fitting capability of the Logistic re-gression models. The ROC fitting test indicated that the Logistic regression models gave a good explanation of the regional land-use changes. Logistic regression analysis is a good tool to identify major factors affecting land use change by quantifying the contribution of each factor.     

中国2010-2015年土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征（英文）

Land use/cover change is an important theme on the impacts of human activities on the earth systems and global environmental change. National land-use changes of China during 2010–2015 were acquired by the digital interpretation method using the high-resolution remotely sensed images, e.g. the Landsat 8 OLI, GF-2 remote sensing images. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use changes across China during 2010–2015 were revealed by the indexes of dynamic degree model, annual land-use changes ratio etc. The results indicated that the built-up land increased by 24.6×10~3 km~2 while the cropland decreased by 4.9×10~3 km~2, and the total area of woodland and grassland decreased by 16.4×10~3 km~2. The spatial pattern of land-use changes in China during 2010–2015 was concordant with that of the period 2000–2010. Specially, new characteristics of land-use changes emerged in different regions of China in 2010–2015. The built-up land in eastern China expanded continually, and the total area of cropland decreased, both at decreasing rates. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland shrinkage were accelerated in central China. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland growth increased in western China, while the decreasing rate of woodland and grassland accelerated. In northeastern China, built-up land expansion slowed continually, and cropland area increased slightly accompanied by the conversions between paddy land and dry land. Besides, woodland and grassland area decreased in northeastern China. The characteristics of land-use changes in eastern China were essentially consistent with the spatial govern and control requirements of the optimal development zones and key development zones according to the Major Function-oriented Zones Planning implemented during the 12 th Five-Year Plan(2011–2015). It was a serious challenge for the central government of China to effectively protect the reasonable layout of land use types dominated with the key ecological function zones and agricultural production zones in centraland western China. Furthermore, the local governments should take effective measures to strengthen the management of territorial development in future.     

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian＇an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian‘an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian‘an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening, of landscaoe suitability.     

黄淮海平原农区土地利用转型及其动力机制

本文分析了黄淮海平原农区2000-2010 年间土地利用转型的时空格局,在构建土地利用转型动力机制分析概念框架基础上,运用空间计量回归分析方法深入剖析了黄淮海平原农区5种主要土地利用类型转换的动力机制。黄淮海平原农区土地利用转型特征表现为：2000-2010年,耕地、未利用地和草地面积的减少伴随城乡建设用地、水域和林地面积的增加;2000-2005年变化幅度明显大于2005-2010 年的变化幅度。分析结果表明：黄淮海平原农区5 种主要土地利用类型转换是自然环境和社会经济多种因素共同作用的结果,其中交通和区位条件对这5 种土地利用类型转换的影响最为显著,是导致土地利用转型的共性驱动因子。并指出：地方各级政府在制定有关土地利用政策时,既应充分考虑驱动各种土地利用转型的主要因子及其地域分异和社会经济发展规律,还需考虑各地类之间转换的适宜性及难易程度,因地制宜开展土地综合整治与利用,让土地利用转型与当地自然环境条件和区域经济社会发展阶段相适应,并使其发生在适宜的区域范围内。     

中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合分析

土地利用转型,即在社会经济变化和革新的驱动下,某一区域在一段时期内由一种土地利用形态转变为另一种土地利用形态的过程。在中国,耕地和农村宅基地乃土地利用转型的重要源头。本文综合利用2000 年和2008 年两期Landsat TM 影像解译土地利用数据及2000-2008 年国土资源部土地利用年度变更调查数据,分析了中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型的时空耦合特征。研究表明：① 2000-2008 年期间,中国耕地面积与农村宅基地面积变化的相关系数为-0.921,呈现出明显的增减逆协同演进格局;② 耕地—宅基地变化相关系数与农村宅基地利用变化率的Spearman 等级相关分析结果表明,在耕地和农村宅基地利用的相互转化过程中,农村宅基地利用的变化起主导作用;③ 通过计算全国各省2000-2008 年间的耕地—宅基地变化耦合系数,发现期间耕地和农村宅基地利用变化耦合程度高的省份主要分布在胡焕庸线的东南部。社会经济—生物自然—土地管理三维驱动因素通过“农村人口—耕地—农村宅基地”三者之间的相互联系与相互作用驱动着耕地和农村宅基地利用的转型。然而,耕地和农村宅基地利用转型的时空耦合现象及其发生机制在很大程度上要归因于中国特殊的城乡二元结构社会体制。     

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Changes in Winter Wheat Cold Damage with Meteorological Elements in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2011 to 2020

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is one of the typical agri-ecosystems in China, which suffers from cold damage frequently resulting in substantial economic losses. In order to monitor the changes in the occurrence of cold damage in an effective and large-scale manner, and to determine their meteorological causes, this paper collected low temperature data from the agricultural meteorological stations and remote sensing data of MODIS from 2005 to 2015, and constructed a monitoring model of cold damage to winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain based on the Logistic regression model. This model was used to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of cold damage of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2011 to 2020, and correlation analysis was performed with the spatio-temporal changes of meteorological factors to ascertain how they affect cold damage. The results show that the harm from cold damage in winter wheat has been gradually decreasing from 2011 to 2020, and the cold damage areas with high probability and high frequency are moving from north to south. The meteorological elements with the greatest impacts on the degree of cold damage from stronger to weaker are heat, precipitation and sunshine duration, whose influence has spatial variability.     

Spatio-temporal patterns and driving mechanism of farmland fragmentation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of farmland landscape patterns in a traditional agricultural region can provide scientific support for decision-making on sustainable rural land use and rural vitalization development. This study established a comprehensive evaluation index for farmland fragmentation with multiple aspects (dominance, integrity, aggregation, regularity, and connectivity) at the county scale. The goal was to identify the evolution of farmland fragmentation in the traditional agricultural region of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000-2015 and investigate underlying drivers using panel data of 359 counties. Results showed an accelerating but fluctuating fragmentation pattern of the farmland landscape. The indexes of dominance, integrity, and aggregation of farmland decreased most sharply, while the index of connectivity increased. Furthermore, the evolution of the farmland fragmentation pattern showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity, which is similar to the trajectory of urbanization and land use transition. Farmland fragmentation in municipal districts also emerged earlier and was more severe than in county-level cities and counties. Factors influenced by advancing urbanization include the proportion of artificial land, population density, and proportion of primary industry; these factors drove the evolution of farmland fragmentation. In contrast, the increase in income of rural residents and production efficiency of farmland were the key factors contributing to the improvement in farmland connectivity.     

论土地利用转型与乡村转型发展

土地利用转型这一研究方向引入中国后,结合中国社会经济特点的相关研究篷勃开展。土地利用形态是土地利用转型研究的核心内容,在社会经济变化和革新的影响下,随着研究的不断深入,土地利用形态的概念内涵被不断拓展。本文在分析土地利用形态概念内涵的发展演变基础上,提出将其分为显性形态与隐性形态两种形式,并以此诠释了土地利用转型的概念模式,进而探讨了土地利用转型与乡村转型发展之间的关系。研究指出:耕地和农村宅基地这两种地类乃乡村发展与土地利用转型之重要源头。随后探讨了乡村转型发展与耕地和农村宅基地利用转型之间的相互作用关系。最后提出未来土地利用转型与乡村转型发展的研究方向,涉及土地利用转型与乡村转型发展的格局与地域类型、互馈作用机理与动力机制、资源与环境效应、优化调控模式和途径等方面。     

论土地利用转型与土地资源管理

自21世纪初土地利用转型这一研究方向引入中国后,土地利用转型已成为当今学术界和国家行政部门十分关注的重要课题。在拓展深化土地利用转型的概念内涵,阐述土地利用转型的理论模式基础上,探讨了土地利用转型与土地资源管理二者之间的互馈机制,进而分析了土地利用转型与土地资源管理二者之间的相互影响。研究指出：决策部门应根据土地利用形态的变化适时调整土地资源管理政策措施,充分考虑目标区域所处的土地利用转型阶段,以增强土地资源管理决策的科学性。在探讨未来土地利用转型与土地资源管理研究方向基础上,强调土地利用隐性形态及其变化应当成为今后土地利用转型与土地资源管理研究关注的焦点,通过管控土地利用隐性形态的变化来创新土地资源管理政策法规及制度,提升土地资源管理水平。     

Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000–2050

Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use, but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking. Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China (NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005. Overall, the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%. Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain, forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains, while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands. Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan, the ecological service value (ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050. The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios. Thus, CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection, especially for the wetlands, which should be given higher priority for future development. The issue of coordination is also critical in future development. The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.     

黄淮海平原耕地转移对植被碳储量的影响

应用GLO-PEM模型和1988年NOAA/AVHRR遥感数据,估算了黄淮海平原植被净初级生产力(NPP),并根据NPP和植被凋落物产生量计算了不同土地利用类型的植被碳密度。通过对1988年与2000年土地利用图的叠置分析,统计了耕地与其他土地利用类型之间的转移量,并估算了耕地转移对植被碳储量的影响。研究发现,耕地转移对植被碳储量变化的影响在不同区域与不同土地利用类型上存在显著差异。1988~2000年间,耕地转移导致全区植被碳储量下降了0.24%,其中耕地转为建设用地是植被碳储量减少的主要原因。这一研究结论为正确把握耕地转移对区域植被碳储量的影响,并据此制订碳汇管理措施具有重要的参考价值。     

近20年中国农业主产区耕地资源质量和产能变化研究

依据全国土地利用图与土地资源质量评价图,分析1980s末至2005年末中国农业主产区内耕地资源数量和空间格局的动态变化,并对由此带来的耕地质量和产能的变化做出宏观评估。主要结论如下:1)2005年农业主产区耕地面积①为9 321.96万hm2,较1980s末增加175.53万hm2。2)耕地在空间上呈现"北增南减"的变化格局。北方的内蒙古东部区、新疆区、松嫩平原区和三江平原区为耕地净增加区,共增加354.41万hm2,各区分别增长10.29%、19.10%、10.91%和14.14%;偏南部的黄淮海区、长江中下游及江淮地区、华南蔗果区和四川盆地区为耕地净减少区,各区分别减少2.17%、2.00%、3.15%和5.61%。3)根据土地资源图对耕地质量的划分结果,20年间农业主产区内耕地面积和空间格局的变化导致一等耕地减少3.24%,二、三等耕地和宜林宜牧地分别增加2.91%、7.81%和14.10%。4)考虑各区耕地复种指数和耕地质量的影响,结合耕地单产数据进行耕地产能的核算,结果显示,在耕地数量净增1.92%的情况下,耕地的总体产能依然下降0.84%。