北极航道管理对北极渔业管理的启示

北极航道管理与北极渔业管理都是由气候变化所催生的北极重要事务。由于同处北极,两者面临着一些共性的管理问题,使两者之间具有了一定的可比性。两者的对比研究显示,北极航道管理机制构建过程体现了国际合作的精神,航道管理制度体系在形成之初始终处于动态发展以期得到完善,依托国际组织制定航行规则也有利于未来北极全面通航后执行统一协调的航道管理制度,这些北极航道管理实践中所体现的管理理念和路径对北极渔业管理具有启示作用。对比研究也揭示了北极渔业所面临的管理瓶颈,具体表现为北极5国谋求北冰洋公海"领导者"地位的单边主义行为,以及北极渔业现阶段所呈现出的"碎片式"管理格局。为实现北极渔业可持续性发展,北极5国之间、北极5国与北极域外国家之间应加强交流与合作,同时适时成立相应的区域性渔业管理组织以协调并开展国际交流与合作。     

The role of declining Arctic sea ice in recent decreasing terrestrial Arctic snow depths

The dramatic decline in Arctic sea ice cover is anticipated to influence atmospheric temperatures and circulation patterns. These changes will affect the terrestrial climate beyond the boundary of the Arctic, consequently modulating terrestrial snow cover. Therefore, an improved understanding of the relationship between Arctic sea ice and snow depth over the terrestrial Arctic is warranted. We examined responses of snow depth to the declining Arctic sea ice extent in September, during the period of 1979–2006. The major reason for a focus on snow depth, rather than snow cover, is because its variability has a climatic memory that impacts hydrothermal processes during the following summer season. Analyses of combined data sets of satellite measurements of sea ice extent and snow depth, simulated by a land surface model (CHANGE), suggested that an anomalously larger snow depth over northeastern Siberia during autumn and winter was significantly correlated to the declining September Arctic sea ice extent, which has resulted in cooling temperatures, along with an increase in precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of Arctic sea ice has amplified warming temperatures in North America, which has readily offset the input of precipitation to snow cover, consequently further decreasing snow depth. However, a part of the Canadian Arctic recorded an increase in snow depth driven locally by the diminishing September Arctic sea ice extent. Decreasing snow depth at the hemispheric scale, outside the northernmost regions (i.e., northeastern Siberia and Canadian Arctic), indicated that Arctic amplification related to the diminishing Arctic sea ice has already impacted the terrestrial Arctic snow depth. The strong reduction in Arctic sea ice anticipated in the future also suggests a potential long-range impact on Arctic snow cover. Moreover, the snow depth during the early snow season tends to contribute to the warming of soil temperatures in the following summer, at least in the northernmost regions.     

北极海域优势种微单胞藻(Micromonas sp.)与其关联菌群的相互作用

以夏季北极海域的优势微藻-微单胞藻(Micromonas sp.,CMPP2099)及其关联菌群为切入点,对这两个重要生态学角色之间的相互关系进行了探索研究。实验选择两种不同生长状态的微单胞藻(指数生长期和稳定生长期);并针对微单胞藻的这两种生长状态,添加外源细菌(单一外源细菌和自然外源细菌)作为实验组。研究发现,无论添加细菌与否,都不会对微单胞藻的生长产生影响,微单胞藻均保持着正常稳定的生长状态,且微单胞藻能够促进细菌的增长。稳定生长期实验组的细菌数量明显高于指数生长期的细菌数量。微单胞藻由于其不具胶体形成的细胞特性,在藻菌共生中并没有发现透明胞外聚合颗粒物(transparent exopolymer particles,TEP)大量存在。添加外源细菌对培养液中的微单胞藻生长、细菌的数量、溶解有机碳(dissolved organic carbon,DOC)、透明胞外聚合颗粒物(TEP)和溶解游离氨基酸(dissovled free amino acid,DFAA)的浓度并无影响,而仅仅由于其所在状态不同存在着差异。该研究初次开展的北极中心海域优势藻种及关联菌群之间关系研究,对极地海洋生态系统中的微食物环有着重要的意义,并为在极地海域中的微食物环-优势浮游植物-微生物种群之间的生态协作提供了实验和理论依据。     

Circulation in the Arctic Ocean

Much information on processes and circulation within the Arctic Ocean has emerged from measurements made on icebreaker expeditions during the past decade. This article offers a perspective based on these measurements, summarizing new ideas regarding how water masses are formed and how they circulate. Best understood at present is the circulation of the Atlantic Layer and mid-depth waters, to depths of about 1700 m, which move in cyclonic gyres in the four major basins of the Arctic Ocean. New ideas on halocline formation and circulation are directly relevant to concerns regarding changes in ice thickness. The circulation of the halocline water in part mimics that of the underlying Atlantic Layer. A number of large eddies contributing to water mass transport have been observed. The circulation of freshwater from the Pacific Ocean and from river runoff has been better delineated. Circulation within the surface layer resembles the circulation of ice, but is different in several respects. Least understood is the circulation of the deepest waters, though some information is available. Recent observed changes in the surface waters and warm Atlantic Layer have been correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. While these changes are dramatic, the qualitative circulation pattern may not have been altered significantly.     

Some discussions on Arctic vortex

The Arctic vortex is a persistent large-scale cyclonic circulation in the middle and upper troposphere and the stratosphere. Its activity and variation control the semi-permanent active centers of Pan-Arctic and the short-time cyclone activity in the subarctic areas. Its strength variation, which directly relates to the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and ecosystem of the Arctic, can affect the lower atmospheric circulation, the weather of subarctic area and even the weather of middle latitude areas. The 2003 Chinese Second Arctic Research Expedition experienced the transition of the stratosphereic circulation from a warm anticyclone to a cold cyclone during the ending period of Arctic summertime, a typical establishing process of the polar vortex circulation. The impact of the polar vortex variation on the low-level circulation has been investigated by some scientists through studying the coupling mechanisms of the stratosphere and troposphere. The impact of the Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SFW) events on the polar vortex variation was drawing people's great attention in the fifties of the last century. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), relating to the variation of the Arctic vortex, has been used to study the impact of the Arctic vortex on climate change. The recent Arctic vortex studies are simply reviewed and some discussions on the Arctic vertex are given in the paper. Some different views and questions are also discussed.     

Oil-weathering behavior in Arctic environments

Oil-weathering processes in ice-free subarctic and Arctic waters include spreading, evaporation, dissolution, dispersion of whole-oil droplets into the water column, photochemical oxidation, water-in-oil emulsification, microbial degradation, adsorption onto suspended particulate material, ingestion by organisms, sinking, and sedimentation. While many of these processes also are important factors in ice-covered waters, the various forms of sea ice (depending on the active state of ice growth, extent of coverage and/or decay) impart drastic, if not controlling, changes to the rates and relative importance of different oil-weathering mechanisms. Flow-through seawater wave-tank experiments in a cold room at −35°C and studies in the Chukchi Sea in late winter provide data on oil fate and effects for a variety of potential oil spill scenarios in the Arctic. Time-series chemical weathering data are presented for Prudhoe Bay crude oil released under and encapsulated in growing first-year columnar ice through spring breakup.     

Acoustic thermometry in the Arctic Ocean

Large increases in the temperature of the Atlantic Layer in the Arctic Ocean have been observed since the early to mid-1990s and have continued through to the present. These changes were detected in 1994 and in 1999 with acoustic "sections" using acoustic thermometry. Both icebreaker and submarine CTD sections have confirmed these observations. Calculations of the travel time of acoustic mode 2 for the submarine CTD sections show a linear correlation with the mean temperature of the Atlantic Layer of the section. A cabled-to-shore undersea mooring system of Arctic Ocean observatories is needed to provide real-time year-round observations using conventional as well as acoustic remote sensing techniques.     

基于北极航线的俄罗斯北极战略解析

北极航线是目前学术界关注的热点问题。我国学者多从中国的视角对此进行研究,而且研
究俄罗斯北极航线战略的成果较少。未来北极航线开发中俄罗斯将处于核心地位,研究俄罗斯的
北极航线战略问题意义深远。本文在收集大量第一手俄文资料的基础上,对俄罗斯北极航线开发
的历史、国家战略、北极政策实施的重点、机制和阶段进行了较深入的解析,以期对我国的北极航
线战略起到启示和借鉴作用。     

Long-term variability in Arctic sea surface temperatures

In this study, we used 30 years of an operational sea surface temperature (SST) product, the NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) SST Version 2 dataset, to examine variations in Arctic SSTs during the period December 1981–October 2011. We computed annual SST anomalies and interannual trends in SST variations for the period 1982–2010; during this period, marginal (though statistically significant) increases in SSTs were observed in oceanic regions poleward of 60°N. A warming trend is evident over most of the Arctic region, the Beaufort Sea, the Chuckchi Sea, Hudson Bay, the Labrador Sea, the Iceland Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Bering Strait, etc.; Labrador Sea experienced higher temperature anomalies than those observed in other regions. However, cooling trends were observed in the central Arctic, some parts of Baffin Bay, the Kara Sea (south of Novaya Zemlya), the Laptev Sea, the Siberian Sea, and Fram Strait. The central Arctic region experienced a cooling trend only during 1992–2001; warming trends were observed during 1982–1991 and 2002–2010. We also examined a 30-yr (1982–2011) record of summer season (June–July–August) SST variations and a 29-yr (1982–2010) record of September SST variations, the results of which are discussed.     

北极航线经济腹地范围和等级划分研究

北极航线具有重要的战略价值和商业价值,从小的范围来说,北极航线的开通将对海运格局产生重大影响,从大的范围来说,北极航线的开通将对世界经济格局产生重大影响。在这个背景下,首先根据过去各种腹地的类型和定义提出了北极航线经济腹地的概念并阐明了北极航线经济腹地划分的意义。然后分析了以往文献对腹地划分问题的研究方法及北极航线腹地划分问题的特殊性,并基于断裂点概念模型和场强模型对北极航线经济腹地范围和等级做出具体划分。最后,根据世界经济格局发展动态分析了腹地的演化趋势,并提出了中国的应对策略。研究成果能够对中国的北极航线战略制定提供科学依据。     

北极地区地缘经济关系演变研究

在气候变化的背景下,北极地区的战略地位不断提升,北极事务正深刻地影响着世界格局的演变。以北极8国为基础,进一步考虑北极理事会13个观察员国的影响,基于2001、2006、2011和2016年的GDP和贸易额数据,采用社会网络分析方法,结合贸易依存度和进出口位次分析,全面地揭示北极地区地缘经济关系的演变特征。研究表明：2001—2016年北极地区地缘经济关系先走向紧密,而后有所减弱;不同国家的地缘经济地位和影响力存在显著差异,双边存在不对等的贸易关系,具有明显的“核心-外围-边缘”的特征。美加双边贸易流尤为显著,占到北极国家间贸易流的70%以上;在美加双边关系上,加拿大对美国经济高度依赖,美国拥有充分的主导权;瑞典、丹麦、挪威和芬兰在地区内具有重要的地缘经济影响力,而冰岛和格陵兰地区则长期处于贸易网络的边缘地带,但二者都具有极其重要的地理位置,应引起重视;在北极地区地缘经济关系中,俄罗斯的经济影响力并未与其国际政治地位相匹配,拥有巨大的经贸潜力。德国、英国、法国、日本、意大利、荷兰和中国都是对北极地区地缘经济有显著影响的国家。以中国为代表的新兴经济体的地缘影响力在不断扩大,而一些传统经济大国的地缘经济优势呈不同程度的减弱趋势。总体来说,近年来北极地区的地缘经济关系基本格局并未发生本质变化。     

Quantitative Holocene climatic reconstruction from Arctic Russia

Vegetation changes reflected in fossil pollen spectra are a primary source of information about climate fluctuations in the past. A statistical-information (transfer function) method based on the correlation of recent pollen spectra with modern climate conditions has been used to reconstruct Holocene climatic changes from fossil pollen. Climatic variables used for the reconstructions are the mean annual, January, July temperatures and annual precipitation. Peat sections with pollen and ¹⁴C data from the Arctic Russia were used for the reconstructions. The reconstructed climate fluctuations are similar to the climate changes obtained from many sites in the former USSR. A clear signal for Younger Dryas cooling, 11,000-10,000 yr BP and early Preboreal warming is apparent. The early Preboreal (10,000-9000 yr BP) was the warmest time for sites from modern coastal and island areas. The warm interval occurred in the Boreal period, about 8500 yr BP. According to the reconstructions the warmest time for non-coastal areas was the last half of Atlantic period, 6000-4500 yr BP. Other warm intervals were reconstructed about 3500 and 1000 yr BP. Reconstructions show that warming periods are primarily defined as times of increased summer temperatures, and cooling periods as time of decreased winter temperatures. The precipitation followed the temperatures: during the warming periods precipitation increased and during the cooling periods it decreased. Precipitation maximum, about 100 mm higher than present, are reconstructed for the warmest interval, 6000-4500 yr BP at all sites.     

High resolution climate simulations over the Arctic

The regional atmospheric climate model HIRHAM has been applied to the Arctic. Simulations for the whole year 1990 and for an ensemble of winter months (January of 1985-1995) have been performed. The comparison of the simulations with observational data analyses shows that the general spatial patterns are in good agreement with the data, in both the vertical structure and the annual cycle. For an additional validation of the model results, a multivariate classification of large-scale circulation patterns has been applied to the January ensemble model simulations.