Can gains in efficiency offset the resource demands and CO2 emissions from constructing and operating the built environment?

Urbanization is a demographic, economic, and land transformation process. Building construction and operation are integral aspects of urban land use change and contribute to material and energy resources consumption and the resulting carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in urban areas. In this paper, we ask two questions regarding the urbanization process: 1) Do the land, material, and energy use efficiencies associated with the construction and operation of buildings increase over time? 2) Do the gains in resource use efficiencies offset the increases in resource demands due to the magnitude of urbanization? To answer these questions, we use a systematic approach similar to a material flow analysis and apply it to the Pearl River Delta, a rapidly urbanizing region in China. We use a combination of satellite data and official statistics to evaluate changes in urban population density and building density from 1988 to 2008. Both density measures decrease from 1988 to 2003; after 2003, building density increases while population density continues to decline. We also track the indirect impacts of urban land expansion on material and energy demands and associated CO₂ emissions using concrete and heating/cooling as proxies for building construction and operation, respectively. Throughout the study period, structural changes and efficiency gains decrease the demand per unit floor area for both building materials and energy. However, the efficiency gains are outstripped by the magnitude of urban expansion, therefore leading to an increase in the demand for resources and CO₂ emissions per capita. Our results show that focusing only on gains in efficiency for individual buildings without considering the scale of urban expansion results in underestimate of the cumulative energy, material, and greenhouse gas emissions impacts of urbanization. We emphasize the distinction between the rates versus the accumulations of these impacts over spatial and temporal scales. We discuss the relevance of the Environmental Kuznets approaches to tackling environmental impacts that are cumulative in nature and may lead to irreversible changes in the environment. We conclude that tracking the energy, materials, and emissions impacts of urbanization requires a multi-scale approach that ranges from the individual building to the urban region.     

印度海上战略通道的新动向、动因及影响

作为印度洋沿岸的国家，随着2015年《确保海洋安全：海洋安全战略》的出台，印度进一步拓展了海上战略通道，主要体现在三个方面：重视南太平洋海上战略通道、拓展大西洋地区海上战略通道、重视北极地区这一新航道的价值。究其原因，印度追求大国地位、参与全球海洋治理的需要以及保障能源进口多元化是其拓展海上战略通道的主要动因。印度对于海上战略通道的拓展一方面将加剧大国对于海上战略通道的争夺态势，另一方面，将有助于国际社会共同建设维护海上战略通道安全的机制。     

世界能源保障基本形势探讨

国家能源保障主要由能源供应的稳定性和能源使用的安全性两个部分组成。论文从影响能源保障的资源基础、能源生产与消费、能源贸易与运输、能源消费对环境的破坏等方面分析了世界能源保障的基本形势,世界能源保障还主要停留在能源供应的稳定性层面上,对使用安全性尽管在思想已经认识到,但是在行动上还远不尽人意,世界能源保障应该从目前主要追求供应稳定性向追求供应稳定性和使用安全性的双重目标转变。由能源生产、消费、贸易与运输等组成的世界能源保障基本格局,随着中国、印度等发展中国家能源国际化的进一步推进,正受到巨大的冲击并不断进行重组。     

Urban heat and residential electricity consumption: A preliminary study

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is a well-documented phenomenon occurring in cities across the world resulting in city centres often being several degrees warmer than their surroundings. This local elevation in temperatures could potentially impact upon local energy consumption, with residents in the warmer central section of the city using more energy to cool their homes in summer and less energy to warm them in winter. This study uses a combination of Geographical Information System techniques and Remote Sensing data (MODIS LST and NDVI), as a preliminary investigation, to assess the spatial relationship between UHI, urban greenspace, household income and electricity consumption in Birmingham, UK. It provides simple and repeatable steps, based on freely available datasets, for urban planners, industry, human and physical geographers, and non-specialists to reproduce the analyses. The results show that, the present impact of the UHI is limited and instead highlights the dominance of household income over local climate in explaining consumption patterns across Birmingham.     

Detecting multi-scale urban growth patterns and processes in the Algarve region (Southern Portugal)

The importance of urban growth processes and their spatial characteristics has led to a growing interest in monitoring these phenomena. Spatial metrics are widely employed for this purpose, appearing in an increasing number of studies where they are used to characterise growth patterns and their evolution over time. This paper presents an analysis of urban growth patterns using spatial metrics in the Algarve (southern Portugal), an area of considerable urban dynamics associated with tourism. Two datasets were used (CORINE 1:100,000 maps and COS 1:25,000 maps) and two time periods (1990 and 2006–2007) in order to compare the different urban land use patterns detected and their evolution over time. The results show differences in urban land use patterns and associated processes at each scale, with stable land use patterns predominating at the 1:100,000 scale whereas the 1:25,000 scale showed a move towards more dispersed patterns. These results have enabled an assessment of the principal differences in urban growth patterns observed at both scales, and the implications for planning these entail.     

Commonwealth Urban Policy in Australia: the case of inner urban regeneration in Sydney, 1973–75

Urban regeneration has intermittently been identified within Commonwealth policy circles as central to the functioning of Australian cities since the 1940s. This paper adds to existing knowledge by exploring the role of the Commonwealth Department of Urban and Regional Development (DURD) in the 1970s in facilitating a series of urban regeneration projects in Sydney. Drawing upon ministerial correspondence and minutes recently out of confidential embargo, the genesis of a holistic urban regeneration agenda is explored. The paper traces the approaches to Commonwealth intervention at a time marked by disillusionment with the comprehensive redevelopment paradigm. It explores the relationships and tensions apparent between and within different levels of government in establishing a Commonwealth presence, focusing on three inner city neighbourhoods: Waterloo, Glebe and Woolloomooloo. The significance of the interventions is considered to lie primarily in the pioneering of an all-of-government approach to urban governance.     

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.     

Geographies of energy transition: the case of high-performing commercial office space in the central business districts of Sydney and Melbourne,Australia

As a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, Australia committed to reduce emissions significantly by 2030. In a country highly urbanised and dependent on fossil fuels as its primary energy source, one key avenue for meeting these commitments is energy transition in the built environment. Australia has emerged as a leader in the design and construction of high-performance buildings in the premium commercial office sector. In this paper, we address a significant gap in understanding the diverse mechanisms through which building energy transition is being constituted in this sector, focusing on Sydney and Melbourne. In the absence of substantive publicly available data, we draw on mixed methods comprising a database developed around high-performing CBD office buildings and qualitative interviews with a range of sectoral stakeholders. We characterise the building stock in each city, and document five trends constituting energy transitions. We demonstrate that building energy transitions are not only shaped purposefully by dominant governance regimes but also by opportunistic responses to specific material and commercial conditions and legacies in each city. Thus the urban built environment affords significant opportunity for energy transitions, but pathways towards such transitions are necessarily multiple and ultimately shaped by material as well as institutional geographies.     

Development and population growth: the Indian experience

This paper analyzes the prevailing demographic trends and development processes in India. Data were taken from the World Development Report and the Human Development Reports of South Asia and India, Census of India, and Government of India's Economic Survey. A much slower economic progress and human development was observed in South Asia as compared to those in East Asia. At present, the income levels in East Asia are 27 times higher and have a human development index twice that of South Asia. India had a better economic performance as compared to other countries in South Asia. However, the human deprivations within India continue to hinder the country's emergence as a politico-economic power on the international scene. Investigation of the diversity in population growth and development in India was presented in this paper using indicators such as: average annual population growth; couple protection rate; female literacy; mean age at marriage for females; infrastructural facilities; proportion below poverty line; and the per capita income. Finally, specific suggestions on how to accelerate the fertility transition in the country were enumerated.     

1990—2014年印度城市扩张时空特征对比分析

印度是人口仅次于中国的发展中国家,也是“一带一路”倡议的重要节点。印度正处于城市化快速发展阶段,分析印度城市化特征具有重要意义,而中国国内关于印度城市化和城市扩张的研究和报道相对较少。论文选取10个人口超过100万的印度城市,获取1990、2000和2014年基于Landsat影像的土地利用数据和人口数据,采用圈层分析法将城市划分为等间距的同心圆圈层后统计各圈层内建设用地密度,选取增长率、密度、强度以及景观指数指标对印度城市扩张进行多维度对比分析。研究发现：①城市土地扩张快于人口增长,1990—2000、2000—2014年土地年均增长率分别是人口年均增长率的3.27和2.43倍。②建设用地密度随着与城市中心距离增加而衰减,且在一定距离内快速下降;同圈层内建设用地密度随时间逐渐增加;城市以分散的方式向外扩张,城市形态变得更加松散,特别是在第二阶段(2000—2014年)。③建设用地斑块破碎化程度与城市扩张强度的空间变化相吻合。城市扩张最活跃区域与景观破碎度最严重区域都随时间不断向外推进,城市扩张对景观格局产生显著影响。在全球城市扩张背景下,研究结果将为理解城市扩张时空特征而提供印度样本,也将为研究其他地区城市扩张提供分析方法和思路。     

A geo-information system approach for forest fire likelihood based on causative and anti-causative factors

Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a geo-information system approach for management of forest fire in Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu, India, with the objective to develop a forest fire likelihood model, integrating GIS and knowledge-based approach for predicting fire-sensitive initiation areas considering major causative and anti-causative factors. Amongst the various causative factors investigated, it was found that wildlife-dependent factor (antler collection and poaching) contributed significantly to fire occurrence followed by management-dependent factors (uncontrolled tourism and grazing), with much less influence of demographic factors. Similarly, anti-causative factor (stationing of anti-poaching/ fire camps) was considered as quite significant.

The likelihood model so developed, envisaging various factors and flammability, accounted for different scenarios as a result of pair-wise comparison on an ordinal scale in a knowledge matrix. The inferential statistics computed indicated the robustness of the model and its insensitivity to moderate changes. It makes it possible for this forest fire likelihood model to predict and prevent a forest fire in an effective and scientific manner because it can assume forest fire likelihood in real time and present in proper time.     

中国城市地理学近期进展

中国城市地理学的兴盛时期始于70年代中期,至80年代进入历史以来最旺盛的发展时期。城市地理学主要研究城市体系、城市化、城市地域结构与具体的大小城镇。其重要的实践领域则主要通过城市规划和区域规划、国土规划。特别是70年代中期借助于我国城市规划工作的复兴,为城市地理学的发展提供了广阔的实践基础。     

北极能源开发的地缘要素驱动机制

全球气候变暖加速了北极海冰的融化,使得北极能源开发变成可能,大大激发了泛北极国家参与北极能源开发的积极性。本文在分析了泛北极国家（北极8国和13个观察员国）能源贸易格局的基础上;利用相关性分析方法,明确了影响北极能源的关键地缘要素;并通过模糊定性分析（fs/QCA）,揭示了关键地缘要素及其组合对不同国家开发或参与开发北极能源的驱动机制。结果表明：① 北极国家多为能源输出国,而北极观察员国多为能源进口国;中国从北极国家能源进口量较少,潜力较大;② 能源依赖性、能源重要性、军事力量、对外投资影响力和国家包容性是影响泛北极国家开发北极能源的关键地缘要素,而气候表现和环保指数与北极能源开发的关系并不显著;③ 关键地缘要素的作用路径主要包括：一是以能源依赖性、能源重要性和军事力量为主要驱动,包括俄罗斯、中国、美国、印度、日本和韩国等国家;二是受到包容性发展限制的、以大国力量为驱动的西欧国家;三是以能源重要性为驱动的北欧国家。基于以上研究结果,本文提出了中国参与北极能源开发的对策建议。     

“一带一路”背景下的中印贸易关系分析

中国与印度的双边关系一直牵动着亚洲乃至世界的经济发展格局，研究其贸易关系对推进双边关系、推动孟中印缅经济走廊合作及“一带一路”建设均具有重要意义。本文从贸易角度入手，深入剖析中印贸易关系发展态势，探讨中印贸易商品结构及敏感行业，评估中印贸易对两国经济发展的带动作用，以期为中印关系演变提供有利支撑。研究发现：（1）2001—2017年中国与印度的贸易规模迅速扩大，但印度在中国的贸易地位提升较慢；（2）东部沿海省份与印度的贸易联系较紧密，西部地区大部分省份与印度的贸易联系相对较弱；（3）中、印双方均未能识别出明显的敏感行业，中国从印度进口主要商品为资源密集型和劳动密集型商品，而中国出口印度的商品逐渐转为技术密集型商品；（4）机械设备、化学制品业的出口拉动对中国的经济发展贡献相对较高，而非金属矿物制品、矿物的出口拉动对印度的经济发展贡献相对较高；（5）出口印度对东部沿海贸易大省的经济拉动比较明显，对于印度毗邻的西藏、新疆两个自治区的拉动也相对较大。     

大连市内部地域结构转型与郊区化

在回顾大连城市内涪地域结构形成发展的基础上,分析了８０年代以来大连城市土地利用结构的总体变化趋势,并尝试提出了大连市内部地域结构模式图。８０年代期间,大连市内部地域结构已开始由单中心集聚型向多中心集聚与扩散并存型转型,而这种转型是大连市效区化现象在城市地域上的空间反映。     

Sediment delivery and accumulation in a developed area during coastal floods

The study area is a portion of a coastal community that is adjacent to a salt marsh and tidal creek. The developed area was built upon wetlands, and like the marsh, it floods during spring tides and strong coastal storms. Following floods, little visual evidence of sedimentation is in the built area, prompting the hypothesis that physical characteristics of coastal development limit sediment availability during floods and reduce deposition. Because the area floods from a tidal creek during the same events that lead to inundation of the adjacent high marsh, salt marshes are used as an analogue system for planning this research. Although salt marsh geomorphology is a starting point, people are endogenous actors at this site who influence geomorphic evolution by changing the flow of naturally occurring energy. Suspended sediment levels or deposition were measured during 10 flooding events. Water samples were collected from the tidal creek, at a catchbasin, at another location in the street, and in the Spartina patens marsh. Sediment is found to be delivered to the street in the same quantities and for the same duration as in the salt marsh. Suspended sediment levels are alike throughout the research area. The amount of sediment that accumulates following coastal floods was measured by placing samplers within the street and the marsh. Highly significant differences in sediment accumulation exist between the environments. After a flood event, much less sediment is deposited in the street than in the marsh.     

历史时期昆明市城区拓展及结构演变研究

作为云南省政治、经济、文化中心,昆明市是云南地区的重要都市。考察历史时期昆明市区的时空演化过程及伴随这一过程的城市内部结构变化,对昆明市历史时期城市发展作地域上的客观复原,无疑是可为城市可持续发展提供参考及借鉴。     

1950-2016年印度洪涝灾害时空分异特征

洪涝是影响印度社会经济发展的首要自然灾害。本文基于全球紧急事件数据库（Emergency Events Database，简称EM-DAT），通过识别洪涝事件，利用频次分析方法，分析了1950-2016年印度洪涝灾害事件频次的时空变化，揭示了印度洪涝灾害的时间和空间分异特征和因灾致死人口的变化特征。结果发现：（1）印度洪涝灾害呈现鲜明的季节变化特征，7-9月为高发季节，占总频次的65.704%，峰值出现在7月，占24.549%；1950-2016年洪涝频次总体呈增加趋势。（2）印度北部，特别是东北部，是洪涝灾害的高发区。（3）1950-2016年洪涝灾害致死人口随洪涝频次增加而增加，但单次死亡人口最大值和年最大死亡人口值均明显降低。由此表明，20世纪中叶以来印度抵御洪涝灾害的能力逐渐增强。本研究为进一步分析印度社会的脆弱性和未来气候变化情景下的洪涝灾害风险奠定了基础。     

Recent population growth in India

Apart from a generalized discussion on the trends of population growth in India during the post-Independence decades and its socio economic implications, this paper examinies in some detail the spatal patterns of population change in India during 1971-1981. The discussion is mainly based on what has emerged on 3 maps depicting percentage change in general and rural and urban population change in India during this decade. While areas of rapid growth of population continue to be associated with net in-migration resulting from: 1) the development of manufacturing industries, mining, trade, and miscellaneous services, all leading to acceleration in the process of urbanization, 2) the development of irrigation and reclamation of land bringing about increased intensity and extension in farming, and 3) infiltration from neighboring countries, particularly from Bangladesh. The areas of relatively low growth are mostly those which have suffered net out-migration induced by pressure of population and paucity of resources or a desire to seek better avenues of employment elsewhere. Superimposed on this is the new trend of declining rate of natural increase, such as in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has played its own role in bringing down the overall growth rate. Likewise there are areas, such as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where recent breakthroughs in the mortality rate, with the birth rate staying at a high level, has stepped up the process of demographic dynamism. A comparison of the spatial patterns of 1971-1981 with those witnessed in precious decades brings out important chnges in these patterns which are occurring as a result of the various areas of the country getting into different phases of the second stage of the "demographic transition." With a view to bringing the benefits of socioeconomic progress to the door steps of all sections of the society in all parts of the country, it is necessary to bring about a substantial decline in the birth rate without any further loss of time.     

Classifying and mapping the urban transition in Vietnam

The urban transition almost always involves wrenching social adjustment as small agricultural communities are forced to adjust rapidly to industrial ways of life. Large-scale in-migration of young people, usually from poor regions, creates enormous demand and expectations for community and social services. One immediate problem planners face in approaching this challenge is how to define, differentiate, and map what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). This project established an urban classification for Vietnam by using national census and remote sensing data to identify and map the smallest administrative units for which data are collected as rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. We used both natural and human factors in the quantitative model: income from agriculture, land under agriculture and forests, houses with modern sanitation, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Model results suggest that in 2006, 71% of Vietnam's 10,891 communes were rural, 18% peri-urban, 3% urban, and 4% urban core. Of the communes our model classified as peri-urban, 61% were classified by the Vietnamese government as rural. More than 7% of Vietnam's land area can be classified as peri-urban and approximately 13% of its population (more than 11 million people) lives in peri-urban areas. We identified and mapped three types of peri-urban places: communes in the periphery of large towns and cities; communes along highways; and communes associated with provincial administration or home to industrial, energy, or natural resources projects (e.g., mining). We validated this classification based on ground observations, analyses of multi-temporal night-time lights data, and an examination of road networks. The model provides a method for rapidly assessing the rural–urban nature of places to assist planners in identifying rural areas undergoing rapid change with accompanying needs for investments in building, sanitation, road infrastructure, and government institutions.