江河源区NDVI时空变化及其与气候因子的关系(英文)

The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper, the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multitemporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile, the correlation relationships between air temperature, precipitation, shallow ground temperature and NDVI, which is 3×3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang, Tuotuohe, Qumalai, Maduo, and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River, and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River, some part of Keqianqu, Tongtian, Chumaer, and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai, and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source region of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was980 Journal of Geographical Sciences positively correlated with average temperature, precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change, and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer.     

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.     

An exploratory analysis of benthic macroinvertebrates as indicators of the ecological status of the Upper Yellow and Yangtze Rivers

This study presents findings of the first systematic analysis of aquatic biotic assemblages in the source region of the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers. It provides an initial basis with which to select representative organisms as indicators to assess the aquatic ecological status of rivers in this region. Macroinvertebrates are considered to be good indicators of long-term environmental changes due to their restricted range and persistence over time. Field investigations of macroinvertebrates were conducted in August 2009 in the source region of the Yellow River, and in July 2010 in the source region of the Yangtze River. Altogether 68 taxa of macroinvertebrates belonging to 29 families and 59 genera were identified. Among them were 8 annelids, 5 mollusks, 54 arthropods and 1 other animal. In the source region of the Yellow River, taxa number, density and biomass of macroinvertebrates were 50, 329 individuals m2 and 0.3966 g dry weight m2, respectively. Equivalent figures for the source region of the Yangtze River were 29, 59 individuals m2 and 0.0307 g dry weight m-2. The lower benthic animal resources in the source region of the Yangtze River are ascribed to higher altitude, higher sediment concentration and wetland degradation. Preliminary findings of this exploratory study indicate that hydroelectric power stations had a weak impact on benthic dwellers but wetland degradation caused by a series of human activities had a catastrophic impact on survival of macroinvertebrates. Ecological protection measures such as conservative grazing and vegetation management are required to minimize grassland degradation and desertification, and reduce soil erosion rate and river sediment discharge.     

近159年东亚夏季风年代际变化与中国东部旱涝分布(英文)

Based on the drought/flood grades of 90 meterological stations over eastern China and summer average sea-level pressure (SLP) during 1850–2008 and BPCCA statistical methods, the coupling relationship between the drought/flood grades and the East Asian summer SLP is analyzed. The East Asian summer monsoon index which is closely related with interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution over eastern China is defined by using the key areas of SLP. The impact of the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon on the distribution of drought/flood over eastern China in the last 159 years is researched. The results show that there are four typical drought and flood spatial distribution patterns in eastern China, i.e. the distribution of drought/flood in southern China is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood along the Huanghe River–Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it, the distribution of drought/flood along the Yangtze River Valley and Huaihe River Valley is contrary to the other regions, the distribution of drought/flood in eastern China is contrary to the western. The main distribution pattern of SLP in summer is that the strength of SLP is opposite in Asian continent and West Pacific. It has close relationship between the interdecadal variation of drought/flood distribution patterns over eastern China and the interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon which was defined in this paper, but the correlation is not stable and it has a significant difference in changes of interdecadal phase. When the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was more susceptible to drought (flood), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were more susceptible to flood (drought) before the 1920s; when the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger (weaker), the regions north of the Yangtze River Valley was prone to flood (drought), the Yangtze River Valley and regions south of it were prone to drought (flood) after the 1920s. It is indicated that by using the data of the longer period could get much richer results than by using the data of the last 50–60 years. The differences in the interdecadal phase between the East Asian summer monsoon and the drought/flood distributions in eastern China may be associated with the nonlinear feedback, which is the East Asian summer monsoon for the extrinsic forcing of solar activity.     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

Glacier retreat and its effect on stream flow in the source region of the Yangtze River

There is growing concern over the effects of climate change on glacier melt and hydrology. In this article, we used two natural small-scale basins, Tuotuo River and Buqu River in the source region of the Yangtze River, China, to show the impacts of glacier melt on stream flow. Changes in the extent of glaciers and ice volume in 1970, 1992 and 2009 are evaluated using remote sensing images. Changes to the glacier surface area over the same time interval are estimated through the delineation of glacier outlines and positions using Landsat TM/ETM＋ imagery. By 2009, the glacier surface area had decreased by 20.83% and 34.81% of the 1970 values in Tuotuo River and Baqu River basins respectively. The total meltwater supply in each basin is estimated to be 2.56×10^9 m^3/yr and 1.24×10^9 m^3/yr respectively. Mass balance calculations show that glaciers in the study area suffered a constant mass loss of snow and ice, accumulatively approximately -24 m over the past 40 years. The annual and summer stream flow tended to increase in Tuotuo River basin from 1970 to 2009 while a negative trend of change was shown in Buqu River basin during 1970-1986. Glaciers became shorter, narrower and thinner under the effect of atmospheric warming. Streamflow increase has been recorded at Tuotuo River station in response to increased glacier and permafrost melt. However, streamflow decrease has been recorded at Yanshiping station on Buqu River, where glacier melt has lagged behind atmospheric warming. These results show a close but variable linkage among climate change, glacier melting and water resources in the source region of the Yangtze River.     

江河源区生态环境范围的探讨

The Tibetan Plateau, as the origin of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, is the region of climate variation and is very sensitive to climate change in China (Feng etal., 1998). The runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River has been decreasing at a rate of 9.8 m3/s per decade due to rapid climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau since the mid- and late 1980s (Zhang etal., 2000). Eco-environmental change is also extremely substantial in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. T…     

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势(英文)

This study examines the hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020. Through analyzing the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, it predicts the variation trend for future flows. It is found that the annual mean flow showed a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of the Yellow River with quasi-periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a; the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon induced precipitation decrease, as well as evaporation increase and frozen soil degeneration in the scenario of global warming are the climate factors, which have caused flow decrease. Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of the Yellow River are likely to decrease generally in the next 20 years.     

三江源地区气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析(英文)

Based on the precipitation and temperature data of the 12 meteorological stations in the "Three-River Headwaters" region and the observed runoff data of Zhimenda in the headwater sub-region of the Yangtze River, Tangnaihai in the headwater sub-region of the Yellow River and Changdu in the headwater sub-region of the Lancang River during the period 1965-2004, this paper analyses the trends of precipitation, temperature, runoff depth and carries out significance tests by means of Mann-Kendall-Sneyers sequential trend test. Makkink model is applied to calculate the potential evaporation. The runoff model driven by precipitation and potential evaporation is developed and the influence on runoff by climate change is simulated under different scenarios. Results show that during the period 1965-2004 the temperature of the "Three-River Headwaters" region is increasing, the runoff of the three hydrological stations is decreasing and both of them had abrupt changes in 1994, while no significant trend changes happen to the precipitation. The runoff model suggests that the precipitation has a positive effect on the runoff depth, while the potential evaporation plays a negative role. The influence of the potential evaporation on the runoff depth of the Lancang River is found to be the significant in the three rivers; and that of the Yellow River is the least. The result of the scenarios analysis indicates that although the precipitation and the potential evaporation have positive and negative effects on runoff relatively, fluctuated characteristics of individual effect on the runoff depth in specific situations are represented.     

Fluvial diversity in relation to valley setting in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

The spatial distribution of valley setting （laterally-unconfined, partly-confined, or confined） and fluvial morphology in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers is contrasted and analyzed. The source region of the Yangtze River is divided into 3 broad sections （I, II and III） based on valley setting and channel gradient, with the upstream and downstream sections being characterized by confined （some reaches partly-confined） valleys while the middle section is characterized with wide and shallow, laterally-unconfined valleys. Gorges are prominent in sections I and III, while braided channel patterns dominate section II. By contrast, the source region of the Yellow River is divided into 5 broad sections （sections I-V） based on valley characteristics and channel gradient. Sections I, II and IV are alluvial reaches with mainly laterally-unconfined （some short reaches partly-confined） valleys. Sections III and V are mainly confined or partly-confined. Greater morphological diversity is evident in the source region of the Yellow River relative to the upper Yangtze River. This includes braided, anabranching, anastomosing, meandering and straight alluvial patterns, with gorges in confined reaches. The macro-relief （elevation, gradient, aspect, valley alignment and confinement） of the region, linked directly to tectonic movement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, tied to climatic, hydrologic and biotic considerations, are primary controls upon the patterns of river diversity in the region.     

基于小波分析的长江和黄河源区汛期、枯水期径流特征

利用db3小波分解和重构1965~2007年长江源沱沱河站、直门达站和黄河源吉迈站、唐乃亥站春汛期、夏汛期和枯水期流量数据,除沱沱河外,各站春汛期、夏汛期和枯水期流量皆呈下降趋势,各站流量下降速率依次为夏汛期>春汛期>枯水期。沱沱河站多年流量呈增加趋势,夏汛期变化速率依然高于春汛期。应用复Morlet小波分别分析上述4个水文站实测流量的周期特征。黄河源总体存在11~12a波动周期;长江源春汛期有4~6a波动周期,夏汛期有13~14a波动周期。不同流域春汛期、夏汛期和枯水期主周期分布规律不同。     

三江源气候变化及其对径流的驱动分析

以1965-2004 年三江源地区12 个气象台站的降水和气温资料以及长江源区直门达、黄河源区唐乃亥和澜沧江源区昌都水文站的径流资料为基础,分析三江源地区的降水、气温和径流的变化趋势,并采用Mann-Kendall-Sneyers 方法进行趋势显著性检验;采用Makkink 公式计算三江源区12 个气象站点的潜在蒸发,建立三江源区降水和潜在蒸发对径流的驱动模型,并对气候变化(降水和气温的变化) 对径流的驱动进行情景分析。研究表明：1965-2004 年三江源区气温升高,径流减少,并且气温和径流都在1994 年发生突变,但降水的变化趋势不明显。降水和潜在蒸发对径流深的驱动模型表明三江源区降水对径流起正向的驱动作用,潜在蒸发对径流起负向的驱动作用,具体来说,澜沧江源区潜在蒸发对径流的驱动力最大,长江源区次之,黄河源区最小。借助驱动模型对三江源气候变化(降水和气温的变化) 对径流的影响进行情景分析,结果显示,降水和气温对径流的驱动在总体上虽然分别是正、负方向上的驱动,但在具体情景下其各自的驱动作用又呈现出波动的特征。     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应

利用水循环模型、统计检测、对比分析等手段对三江源区水循环过程进行了分析,模拟和检测了1958-2005 年黄河源区出口唐乃亥站、长江源区直门达站、澜沧江源区昌都站汛期、非汛期和年径流过程的变化趋势。在此基础上,检测CSIRO和NCAR两种气候模式A1B和B1 排放情景下未来2010-2039 年源区出口断面的径流演变趋势,对比分析了气候变化的影响。研究表明过去48 年三江源区出口唐乃亥站年径流和非汛期径流过程呈显著减少趋势,而直门达和昌都站径流过程变化趋势并不显著。这将导致对黄河中下游地区的水资源补给显著减少,加剧黄河流域水资源短缺。气候变化背景下,未来30 年黄河源区径流量与现状相比有所减少,尤其是在非汛期,将持续加剧黄河中下游流域水资源短缺的现象。长江源区径流量将呈增加趋势,而且远远高于现状流量,尤其是在汛期,长江中下游地区防洪形势严峻。而澜沧江源区未来30 年径流量均高于现状流量,但汛期和年径流变化并不显著,而非汛期径流变化存在不确定性,CSIRO模式B1 情景显著减小,而NCAR模式B1 情景显著增加。气候变化对长江源区径流影响最显著,黄河源区其次,而澜沧江源区最小。     

近40 年来青藏高原典型高寒湿地系统的动态变化

选择青藏高原长江源区、黄河源区以及若尔盖地区等典型高寒湿地分布区域, 利用1969、1986、2000 和2004 年多期航片和卫星遥感数据, 从湿地主要组分分布、空间格局以及水生态功能等方面, 分析了近40 年来典型高寒湿地系统动态变化特征及其区域差异性。结果表明: 青藏高原典型高寒湿地退化具有普遍性, 湿地面积萎缩在10%以上。以长江源区的沼泽湿地退化最为严重, 退缩幅度达到29%, 同时大约有17.5%的长江源区内流小湖泊干涸消失, 黄河源区和若尔盖地区湿地系统空间分布格局的破碎化和岛屿化程度显著加剧。高寒 湿地系统退化使其水文功能发生变化, 表现在湿地退化较为强烈的长江源区与若尔盖地区枯 水期流量减少、稀遇较大流量径流发生频率增加而常遇流量发生频率减少、水涵养能力下降。湿地系统变化与区域气温显著升高有关, 在20 世纪80 年代以来区域增温幅度升高到过去40 年平均增温幅度的2.3 倍, 湿地系统退化程度也同步在20 世纪80 年代中期以后明显加剧。在降水量呈现增加以及冰川趋于消融的背景下, 高寒湿地退化是导致其流域径流持续递减的主要因素之一。     

黄河上游径流变化特征及其影响因素初步分析

利用1956—2005年黄河上游水文和气象台站观测的流量、气温、降水资料,用气候诊断方法分析了该地区径流量的年代际演变特征以及影响因子。结果表明：20世纪50—80年代年平均流量呈波动性的上升趋势,90年代至21世纪的前5年年平均流量呈下降趋势。降水量、蒸发量、气温是影响流域流量的主要气象因子,它们的机理完全不同。枯季、雨季降水量与流量分别呈负、正反馈机制,秋季和冬季降水量对次年春夏季的流量有比较明显的调节作用;4—5月（10月）气温与后期5—6月（11月）流量呈负（正）反馈机制;枯季、雨季地表蒸发与流域的河川流量呈负反馈机制,并且消耗的水资源量呈逐年增加的趋势。20世纪90年代以来黄河上游地区河川流量的减少与降水量减少、地表蒸发量增大有关。     

夏季风等环流因子对黄河中游径流量周期变化的影响

基于黄河中游4个水文站1919~2010年还原的天然径流量、1873~2011年的夏季风强度指数、北大西洋涛动指数（NAO）和西太平洋副高指数等资料,利用Morlet小波方法分析了黄河中游河口镇-龙门区间（简称河龙区间）,龙门-三门峡区间（简称龙三区间）和三门峡-花园口区间（简称三花区间）径流量的周期变化,并探索了夏季风、中纬度西风与西太平洋副高等环流因子对黄河中游3个区间径流量周期性变化的影响。研究发现,黄河中游3个区间径流量的变化对夏季风、中纬度西风和西太平洋副高存在差异性响应,季风对于黄河中游的径流量不仅在时间上具有趋势性的影响,更为重要的是存在周期性的控制作用,在80 a长周期上对于整个黄河中游都有控制作用,但影响黄河中游降水-径流过程的不仅仅是夏季风,相关统计结果表明还受到西风带和西太平洋副高周期的影响。3个区间都存在一个中等尺度(25 a)的周期,这个周期在夏季风上没有得到体现,河龙区间和龙三区间的25 a周期是受西风带影响所致,而三花区间的中尺度25 a周期是西太平洋副高指数的强度和西界的作用所致。