Research on the suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale in China

The relationship between population distribution and resources, environment and social-economic development has a significant influence on the human development. This paper set up a set of index system and model methods for the assessment of the coordination between population and resources, environment and social-economic development, and it quantitatively evaluated this coordination at the provincial scale in 2000 and 2010 respectively Based on this set of index system, the suitability degree and the spatial-temporal pattern of population distribution at the provincial scale were carefully characterized. The restriction of population distribution at the provincial scale was graded and classified, and the coordinated development strategy of population, resources, environment and social economy was finally put forward. The results showed that： （1） The environmental suitability of population distribu- tion at the provincial scale was generally high in China, which tended to be stable from 2000 to 2010. （2） The restriction of water and land resources at the provincial scale was generally strong in China, but it tended to be weak from 2000 to 2010. （3） The coordination degree between the social-economic development and population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, which was in the positive upward path from 2000 to 2010. （4） The suitability of population distribution at the provincial scale was mostly at a middle level, all of which was rising from 2000 to 2010. （5） The coordination degree between population dis- tribution and resources, environment and social-economic development at the provincial scale was divided into four grades, including basic coordination, relative coordination, awaited coordination and urgent-needed coordination. （6） The basic ways to promote the coordinated development of population, resources and environment in different regions in China can be summarized as： implementing the strategy of population agglomeration and evacuation, guiding the orderly flow of population, optimizing the spatial distribution of popu- lation and drawing up the spatial planning of population development.     

中国分县生态承载力供需平衡空间格局分析(英文)

A balanced ecological carrying capacity and its understanding are important to achieve sustainable development for human kind.Here,the concept of ecological carrying capacity has been used for measuring the dependencies between human and nature.China’s ecological balance between supply and demand has become a global concern and is widely debated.In this study the ’Ecological Footprint’ method was used to analyze the supply-demand balance of China’s ecological carrying capacity.Firstly,the ecological supply and demand balance was calculated and evaluated,and secondly,the ecological carrying capacity index (ECCI) was derived for each county of China in 2007,and finally this paper systematically evaluated the ecological carrying capacity supply-demand balance of China.The results showed that ecological deficit appeared to be the main characteristic of ecological carrying capacity supply-demand balance in 2007 of China at county scale.In general,more than four-fifths of the Chinese population was concentrated in less than one-third of the land area and more than two-thirds of the land area was inhabited by less than one-fifth of the population.The spatial distribution of the ecological carrying capacity demand-supply was unbalanced ranging from significant overloading to affluence from southeastern to northwestern part of China.It appeared to be more dominant in regions located at coastal areas which are attracted by migrants and had a generally higher population density.Along with the rapid development and urbanization trends in China,ecological deficits in these regions will become more severe.     

基于GIS的中国人口重心的密度分级与曲线特征

In this paper, with the spatial analysis functions in ArcGIS and the county-level census data of 2000 in China, the population density map was divided and shown by classes, meanwhile, the map system of population distribution and a curve of population centers were formed; in accordance with the geographical proximity principle, the classes of population densities were reclassified and a population density map was obtained which had the spatial clustering characteristic. The multi-layer superposition based on the population density classification shows that the population densities become denser from the Northwest to the Southeast; the multi-layer clustering phenomenon of the Chinese population distribution is obvious, the populations have a water-based characteristic gathering towards the rivers and coastlines. The curve of population centers shows the population densities transit from the high density region to the low one on the whole, while in low-density areas there are relatively dense areas, and in high-density areas there are relatively sparse areas. The reclassification research on the population density map based on the curve of population centers shows that the Chinese population densities can be divided into 9 classes, hereby, the geographical distribution of Chinese population can be divided into 9 type regions: the concentration core zone, high concentration zone, moderate concentration zone, low concentration zone, general transitional zone, relatively sparse area, absolute sparse area, extreme sparse area, and basic no-man's land. More than 3/4 of the population of China is concentrated in less than 1/5 of the land area, and more than half of the land area is inhabited by less than 2% of the population, the result reveals a better space law of China’s population distribution.     

2000–2010年中国不同地区人口密度变化及其影响因素分析(英文)

Studying the change in population distribution and density can provide important basis for regional development and planning. The spatial patterns and driving factors of the change in population density in China were not clear yet. Therefore, using the population census data in 2000 and 2010, this study firstly analyzed the change of population density in China and divided the change in all 2353 counties into 4 types, consisting of rapid increase, slow increase, slow decrease and rapid decrease. Subsequently, based on the partial least square(PLS) regression method, we recognized the significant factors(among 11 natural and social-economic factors) impacting population density change for the whole country and counties with different types of population change. The results showed that:(1) compared to the population density in 2000, in 2010, the population density in most of the counties(over 60%) increased by 21 persons per km2 on average, while the population density in other counties decreased by 13 persons per km2. Of all the 2353 counties, 860 and 589 counties respectively showed rapid and slow increase in population density, while 458 and 446 counties showed slow and rapid decrease in population density, respectively.(2) Among the 11 factors, social-economic factors impacted population density change more significantly than natural factors. The higher economic development level, better medical condition and stronger communication capability were the main pull factors of population increase. The dense population density was the main push factor of population decrease. These conclusions clarified the spatial pattern of population change and its influencing factors in China over the past 10 years and could provide helpful reference for the future population planning.     

历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征(英文)

Based on historical documents and records this paper analyzes the characteristics of frequency and distribution of major disasters that took place in the history of China. The findings show that occurrences of different types of disasters varied and spatial pattern at provincial level are significantly different as well. The results also indicate that there is a strong relationship between type of disasters and spatial distribution and that the spatial pattern of losses was not the same as that of the frequency. The reasons are: (1) the hazard-formative environments which, to a large extent, determine the spatial pattern of the disasters are significantly different; (2) the losses caused by natural disasters were closely related to the concentration of economy and population. Number of deaths was usually large in areas where agriculture, culture and business were relatively developed. The spatial pattern of disaster losses is an evitable result of uneven economic development in the history of China.     

中国城市群交通网络结构及可达性的时空特征演变与差异研究（英文）

Megaregion has become a prominent feature of modern China. Reflecting upon China's recent path of transport infrastructure construction, this research examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of transport network development and its accessibility impacts in China's ten megaregions from 1982 to 2010. Using historical transport network data and multiple national censuses(1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010), we computed two levels of indicators of megaregional transport network: megaregion level and county level, and analyzed the intra-megaregion and inter-megaregion disparities of transport network of the ten megaregions of China. Transport networks at the megaregion level are measured by three indicators: 1) transport network density; 2) infrastructure endowment per capita; and 3) size of transport network's standard ellipse. Two accessibility indicators for measuring transportation network at the county level are calculated: weighted average travel time and potential accessibility. The research results show the following: 1) Road and rail network densities witnessed the greatest growth during the 2000–2010 period, and growth was more significant for railway network. 2) By 2010, average road endowments per capita in inland megaregions became higher than in coastal megaregions, while average rail endowments per capita in coastal megaregions became higher than in inland megaregions. 3) The sizes and directions of the standard deviational ellipses of road and rail network changed continuously during the study period. However the changes of road network ellipses were relatively small, while the changes of railway network ellipses were more significant. 4) Megaregions have all benefited significantly from transportation infrastructure improvement in the past few decades in terms of WATT and potential accessibility, but the three giant megaregions benefited most.     

中国陆地类跨省界自然地理实体地名空间分布及其影响因素研究（英文）

The interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical entities are the key areas of regional integrated management. In this paper, we analyzed the spatial patterns of the interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical names(ITPGN) from three aspects: numerical features, spatial variance and spatial agglomeration. The influencing factors of the distribution of ITPGN and the implications for the regional management were further discussed. GIS technology was used to visualize the distribution of ITPGN, analyze the spatial agglomeration and the influencing factors of ITPGN. A total of 11,325 ITPGN, including 4243 water ITPGN and 7082 terrain ITPGN, were extracted from the database of "China's Second National Survey of Geographical Names(2014–2018)", and the mountain geographical names were the largest type in ITPGN. Hunan Province had the largest number of the names in China, and Shanghai had the smallest number of the names. The spatial variance of the terrain ITPGN was larger than that of the water ITPGN, and the ITPGN showed a significant agglomeration phenomenon in the southern part of China. In addition, the relative elevation and the population had an impact on the distribution of the ITPGN. The largest number of the geographical names occurred in the regions where the relative elevation was between 1000–2000 meters, and where the population was between 40–50 million. Based on the analysis, it was suggested that the government should take the ITPGN as management units, optimize management strategies based on the characteristics of different types of ITPGN, strengthen the naming of unnamed interprovincial terrestrial physical geographical entities and balance the interests in the controversial ITPGN. This study demonstrated that GIS and spatial analysis techniques were useful for the research of ITPGN and the results could provide targeted management suggestions to realize coordinated development in the interprovincial regions.     

中国国家自然保护地的空间分布特征（英文）

This paper investigated spatial structures of 3418 national protected areas(NPAs) grouped into 13 types using GIS and quantitative analysis, including point patterns, Ripley's K function, hotspot clustering, quadrat analysis, and Gini coefficient. Spatial accessibility was calculated for all NPAs from matrix raster data using cost weighted distance on the Arc GIS platform. The results are as follows:(1) The NNI of NPAs is 0.515, Gini is 0.073, all of which indicates distribution was shown to be a spatially dependent agglomeration, and more balanced in the provinces. The national key parks and the national water conservancy scenic spots had present the strongest aggregation, with NNI of 0.563 and 0.561 respectively, and K index indicates reducing aggregation when distance exceeds 600 km.(2) The national forest parks account for the largest proportion of 22.87% of all NPAs, and the world biosphere reserves the least of 0.77%. The number of NPAs in Shandong with 240 had been the largest one in all the provinces, while Tianjin had the least number including 9 NPAs.(3) There is only one hot spot in the first-class zone, 5 in the second-class zones, and 51 in the third-class zones, which indicates NPAs are also aggregated at microscopic scales.(4) The hotspot NPA regions were mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, east of 100°E. High density of NPAs were generally in flat, water-rich, broad-leaved forest dominated plains and low mountain areas, with fertile soil, pleasant weather, long cultural history, and high transportation accessibility.(5) Average NPA accessible time is 60.05 min, with 70.76% regions being within 60 min, and the furthest was 777 min. The distribution of accessibility was positively related to the traffic lines. Interdepartmental protectionism has meant the various departments developed different management systems, standards, and technical specifications.     

建设国际大都市目标下的中国特大城市资源效率、变化趋势及其成因(英文)

The metropolitan resources comprehensive efficiencies (also called comprehensive technical efficiency, short for CTE, thereafter), change trends and causes are investigated using DEA and Malmquist index models, respectively, in China during the period 1990–2006. Firstly, the DEA model results show that the metropolitan CTE was just fair to middling with the characteristics of almost declining from the Eastern Coastal to Western China, and only few metropolises were DEA efficient. Secondly, the results also show that the PTE was correlated with the urban population sizes of metropolises negatively, and the SE correlated positively with the urban population sizes of metropolises in 1990, 2000 and 2006, that is, with urban population sizes getting larger the corresponding PTE was decreasing accordingly, and the SE was increasing consequently and the increasing rate was smaller with the scale increase. Thirdly, the influencing factors of metropolitan efficiency were SE and PTE in 1990 and 2000, respectively. But the PTE became the predominant influencing factor with the rapid expansions of built-up areas and population scales of metropolises in 2006. Fourthly, the Malmquist index results show that the CTE change trends were increasing weakly, the technological change trends were declining, and the TFP change trends were declining obviously during 1990–2006, in which they were all increasing during the sub-period 1990–2000, and all decreasing during the sub-period 2000–2006. Fifthly, the Malmquist index results also demonstrate that the CTE change trend was increasing weakly in the Eastern Coastal China, declining in Central China, and declining evidently in Western China. And with the urban population size increasing the increasing trends of SE became weaker and weaker. And the main causes for the CTE being not too high and its change trends and TFP change trends being increasing weakly lie mainly in the technological degeneracy and PTE change trends declining significantly during 2000–2006. Finally, the analyses show that the China’s metropolitan population boom and the rapid spread of built-up area had really caused their resources efficiency losses.     

中国冰川系统对气候变化响应的敏感性分析

Data of 44 glacier systems in China used in this paper were obtained from Chinese Glacier Inventories and the meteorological data were got from Meteorological Atlas of Plateau of west China. Based on the statistical analysis and functional model simulation results of the 44 glacier systems in China, the glacier systems were divided into extremely-sensitive glacier system, semi-sensitive glacier system, extremely-steady glacier system and semi-steady glacier system in terms of glacier system＇s level of water-energy exchange, rising gradient of the equilibrium line altitudes and retreating rate of area to climate warming, their median size and vertical span distribution, and their runoff characteristics to climate warming. Furthermore the functional model of glacier system to climate warming was applied in this paper to predict the average variation trends of the 4 types of glacier systems, which indicate that different sensitivity types of glacier systems respond to the climate warming differently.     

The study on county accessibility in China: Characteristics and effects on population agglomeration

This paper calculated spatial accessibility of all counties (city, urban district) in China with cost weighted distance method. Region divisions of county accessibility were conducted, and relation of traffic accessibility and population aggregation was discussed in this paper. The results indicated that county accessibility in China had mainly low values and a distribution structure of circle layer and reverse-to-natural gradient. There was an obvious correlation between county accessibility and population density in China. With these analyses, inner mechanisms of population migration in different traffic conditions and region types were revealed, and can provide useful proposals to regional planning, traffic planning and smart distribution of people in China.     

基于社会需求与交通可达性的新疆通勤机场布局研究

从经济、人口、资源、交通以及社会公益性综合层面评价县域民航需求与交通可达性水平空间差异,采用断裂点模型对现有干、支线机场布局进行评价,确定新疆通勤机场布局与功能。结论：（1）影响新疆县域民航发展需求的各类因素中,经济因子客观权重高于社会与环境因子。（2）民航发展需求水平与交通可达性综合水平县域间差距较大,整体偏低。（3）民航发展需求指数与交通可达性综合指数组合为6类区域,且大部分为"低需求低可达性"。（4）机场吸引力有效断裂点为70个,集中分布在民航发展需求与综合交通可达性中低水平区域。（5）新疆民航机场布局可发展干-支-通勤三层轴-辐与南北疆环线布局模式。     

中国县域可达性区域划分及其与人口分布的关系

可达性空间划分是交通地理学研究的重要领域。分析其与人口布局的关系,对当下中国的发展具有重要的理论与实践意义。借助GIS 软件平台,运用栅格成本加权距离算法,计算全国县 (市、区) 域单元的空间可达性并进行区域划分,进而探讨中国大区域交通可达性与人口分布的关系,揭示不同交通条件和不同区域类型中人口迁移与人口流动内在机制,为区域规划、交通规划和中国人口配置提供科学依据。研究表明,①栅格成本加权距离算法可以实现空间可达性概念从定性描述转向定量计算的精确转换;②中国县域可达性以低值为主,具有圈层状和"反自然梯度"空间结构,"黑河-腾冲"线为明显分界线;③中国大陆分为3大区:可达性高值区、可达性中值区、可达性低值区。可达性中值区又可分为东南诸省亚区、陕甘宁晋亚区、吉林亚区;可达性低值区分为云川渝亚区、蒙黑亚区、新疆亚区、青藏亚区;④国家区域范围内县域可达性与人口密度具有明显的相关性,2.5小时圈是目前中国可达性与人口集聚产生作用的最远距离;中国县域可达性越高的区域,可达性对人口集聚产生作用圈就越大,而可达性值与人口数量的相关性越小,说明交通条件对落后地区人口集聚所起到的作用远远大于发达地区。     

基于改进潜能模型的就医空间可达性度量和缺医地区判断——以江苏省如东县为例

潜能模型广泛应用于就医空间可达性评价,现有模型综合了医疗设施服务能力、居民点人口数量、医疗设施与居民点之间的出行阻抗。在此基础上通过考虑"医疗设施不同等级规模对居民就医选择行为的影响"对模型进行修正。结果表明,改进的潜能模型能够更为合理地评价就医空间可达性,准确揭示居民实际所能获取的医疗资源,结合医疗资源配置相关标准,则能有效判定缺医地区,为政府相关部门规划决策提供依据。     

中国民用航空机场的可达性研究

运用可达性分析方法和地理信息技术,研究2005年中国民用航空机场的可达性及其服务水平。中国民用航空机场的可达性水平总体呈现东高西低的态势,机场服务区的面积由东部沿海向东北和中西部地区逐渐增大;全国机场有效服务区面积占国土面积的11%,区内人口和GDP占全国的比重分别为47%和67%。提出全国新机场的规划建议,即优先考虑社会经济需求潜力和改善东北及西北地区航空运输服务水平。     

Impacts of traffic accessibility on ecosystem services: An integrated spatial approach

The continuous degradation of ecosystem services is an important challenge faced by the world.Improvements in transportation infrastructure have had substantial impacts on economic development and ecosystem services.Exploring the influence of traffic accessibility on ecosystem services can delay or stop their deterioration;however,studies on its impact are lacking.This study addresses this gap by analysing the impact of traffic accessibility on ecosystem services using an integrated spatial regression approach based on an evaluation of the ecosystem services value (ESV) and traffic accessibility in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration (MRYRUA) in China.The results indicated that the ESV in the MRYRUA continuously decreased during the study period,and the average ESV in plain areas,areas surrounding the core cities,and areas along the main traffic routes was significantly lower than that in areas along the Yangtze River and the surrounding moun-tainous areas.Traffic accessibility continued to increase during the study period,and the high-value areas centred on Wuhan,Changsha,Nanchang,and Yichang were radially dis-tributed.The global bivariate spatial autocorrelation coefficient between the average ESV and traffic accessibility was negative.The average ESV and traffic accessibility exhibited signifi-cant spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity.Spatial regression also proved that there was a negative association between the average ESV and traffic accessibility,and scale ef-fects were evident.The findings of this study have important policy implications for future ecological protection and transportation planning.     

基于改进高斯两步移动搜索法的深圳市公园绿地可达性评价

公园绿地可达性是衡量城市宜居水平的重要指标。针对传统可达性分析多用统计数据开展评估而导致的供需尺度失衡问题,论文以深圳为例,采用公园绿地空间矢量数据和手机信令数据获取供需空间分布,采用高斯两步移动搜索法计算交通小区(TAZ)尺度公园绿地可达性,并结合可达性结果及供需、交通情况聚类,剖析可达性差异化模式及成因。主要结论如下：① 通过改进传统可达性计算数据源和高斯两步移动搜索模型,建立城市中微观尺度公园绿地可达性评价及成因研究框架,可更精确地评估优化城市公园绿地可达性;② 深圳市公园绿地综合可达性整体水平较高,但存在明显的从中心向外围递减的趋势,社区公园可达性差异与公园绿地供需不匹配是造成各区域可达性差异大的重要原因;③ 根据K均值聚类分析结果,将深圳市TAZ单元分成低供给低需求低可达性区、中供给低需求中可达性区、高供给高需求中可达性区、高供给低需求高可达性区,各类区域具有差异化的可达性内涵、特征和成因;④ 公园绿地可达性提升可针对不同分区特征,通过公园布局优化、道路建设和居住区规划布局等差异化方式实现。研究充实了城市公园绿地可达性评价案例,提出的基于手机信令数据和高斯两步移动搜索法的可达性分析方法不仅可应用于城市公园绿地布局与规划,也可为其他地理现象可达性分析提供思路参考。     

基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究

以人口空间分布及其与资源环境和社会经济协调性评价为核心,提出了一整套人口与资源环境和经济社会发展协调水平评价的指标体系与模型方法;以分县为基本单元,定量评价了2010 年中国人口与资源环境和社会经济发展的协调性和协调程度;根据人口分布适宜度高低和限制性差别,划分了中国分县人口分布适宜等级和限制类型,定量揭示了中国不同地区人口与资源环境和社会经济协调发展的时空格局和地域特征。研究表明：① 2010 年中国有3/5 以上的县（市、区） 人口分布与人居环境基本适宜,中国分县人口分布与人居环境自然适宜性保持了高度一致性;② 2010 年中国有1/2 以上的县（市、区） 人口发展基本不受水土资源约束,分县人口分布与水土资源适宜性处于中等水平;③ 2010 年中国有超3/5 的县（市、区） 人口与社会经济发展基本协调,人口分布的社会经济协调性良好;④ 2010 年中国近3/5 的县（市、区） 人口分布适宜度在60 以上,人口资源环境与发展处于基本协调或相对协调状态;⑤2010 年中国分县人口资源环境与发展的协调程度东部优于中部、中部优于西部;⑥ 2010 年中国分县人口分布适宜度可划分为人口资源环境与发展基本协调、相对协调、有待协调和亟待协调4个适宜等级与10 个限制类型。     

景观格局下中俄大城市安全空间相似性研究 —以圣彼得堡和大连市为例

城市不断膨胀使其在面对城市内涝、地震、危险事故、雾霾等危害时显现了更多的脆弱性，使得城市安全问题越来越受到广泛关注和重视，随之以安全城市为目标的城市规划与城市研究逐渐兴起。本文基于土地利用数据、人口统计数据、交通网络数据和避难绿地数据，运用景观格局指数、多尺度分析、城市网络分析工具、邻域法等方法，在ArcGIS10.2和Fragstats （ver 4.2.1）软件平台上进行空间分析，然后在以上计算结果基础上建立城市安全相似性模型对圣彼得堡和大连市景观格局视角下城市安全环境的相似性进行评价，结果显示：圣彼得堡市和大连市人口密度景观格局表现为相似，土地利用景观格局较为相似，交通网络景观格局较不相似, 避难绿地景观格局最不相似;相比而言，圣彼得堡在交通效率和避难绿地整体可达性两方面显示出优势，而大连则在“工业-居住-绿地”三大功能用地空间布局以及人口与交通网络中心性两个方面显示出优势；大连今后城市安全空间建设应注重提升交通效率和避难绿地整体可达性，以提升城市安全性。     

基于要素分析的国家历史文化名城格局中心性研究

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