Getting Away with the Stolen Vehicle: An Investigation of Journey-after-Crime*

Abstract

Analyses of criminals' travel patterns can provide significant suggestions to improve crime management. This study extends the investigation of criminals' travel behavior from journey-to-crime to journey-after-crime. Moreover, new methods are developed to examine the spatial patterns of location pairs when restricted by the underlying geographical process. The methods are employed to investigate criminals' journey-after-auto-theft in the city of Buffalo, New York. The analyses reveal that auto thieves' trips from vehicle-theft locations to the corresponding vehicle-recovery locations are local in nature. The travel distances are significantly shorter than the randomly simulated trips; the travel directions are biased from the random directions as well.     

盗窃者犯罪出行距离的特征及其影响因素——基于居住社区、作案社区及出行物理障碍的综合考虑

从犯罪出行距离的角度研究犯罪行为,有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。已有研究主要探讨作案社区的特征对犯罪者出行距离的影响,尚未综合考虑作案地、居住社区与作案社区差异及出行物理障碍(physical barrier)影响。论文以中国南方某特大城市为例,构建考虑个体层与作案社区层特征的多层线性回归模型,探究盗窃者犯罪出行距离的影响因素。研究发现：① 相比作案社区层,个体层的变量对犯罪出行距离的影响更大;② 出行物理障碍变量会提高模型的解释力,犯罪出行跨越的物理障碍越多,则出行距离越远,且它会影响作案社区中地铁、超市、银行对犯罪出行距离的作用;③ 居住社区与作案社区之间的环境差异对犯罪出行距离有影响,居住社区中的公交站、学校、超市越多,地铁站越少,犯罪者的出行距离越近。研究结论可以为犯罪者的地理画像与警务防控提供理论支撑。     

不同主体特征的犯罪人空间出行行为分析

犯罪人的空间出行行为对描述和理解犯罪人的犯罪过程具有重要作用。目前已有的研究大多集中于犯罪人空间出行距离的一般性统计分析,缺少从犯罪人不同主体特征下的空间出行行为的精细化与个性化研究。论文以北京市盗窃电动自行车案件为例,对不同主体特征要素下的犯罪人空间出行距离分布差异性进行了实证研究,结果表明：具有不同性别、年龄、籍贯和犯罪经验属性的犯罪人空间出行距离分布存在明显差异,其中男性犯罪人的犯罪出行距离略高于女性犯罪人,但其空间缓冲距离却较女性犯罪人略小;中年犯罪人较青少年和老年犯罪人具有更大的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲半径;外来犯罪人群体较本地犯罪人群体的犯罪出行距离和空间缓冲区更远;多次作案的犯罪人在出行距离和空间缓冲距离上要高于作案次数较少的犯罪人。随后,基于最小努力原则和理性抉择理论,从犯罪人主体的出行成本、邻里监护风险感知、犯罪收益等角度构建了犯罪人空间出行的决策模型,并对不同主体特征要素作用下的犯罪人空间出行行为的差异性进行了解释。研究结论可为犯罪预测及警务实践提供有效支撑。     

Journey‐to‐Work Patterns in the Age of Sprawl: Evidence from Two Midsize Southern Metropolitan Areas*

Among others, one commonly identified negative consequence of urban sprawl is an increase in the length of the journey to work. However, there has been more discussion of this than serious scrutiny, hence the relationship between urban sprawl and commuting patterns, especially at the intraurban level, remains unclear. Using the 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) data for two Southeastern metropolitan areas, this research investigates the extent to which workers living in sprawl areas commute farther to work than those living in higher density areas. The analysis of variance confirms that workers commuting from sprawl areas to urban areas experience a longer commute in terms of time as well as mileage, though this varies when workplace and home locations are taken into account. However, multivariate statistical results suggest that there are limits to the utility of sprawl as a predictor of travel behavior compared to workers' socioeconomic characteristics, as other factors appear to be equally or more important.     

盗窃犯罪易发地的构成、影响及其区域异质性：基于地理探测器方法

本文旨在识别盗窃犯罪易发地的主要类型、影响强度及其区域异质性特征,同时厘清地理探测器在犯罪地理研究中的适用性。利用北京中心城区的多源大数据,研究发现：① 在全域范围内,37类设施均属显著的盗窃易发地,道路边界、行政边界、用地边界也是盗窃高发的边缘地带,影响力突出的盗窃易发地更具备犯罪模式理论提及的犯罪引致条件。② 如社会解组理论所言,随着社会解组程度减弱,犯罪易发地的类型数量及其对盗窃分布的影响逐渐下降。除低解组区外,各类设施及边界的相对影响排序基本相同。③ 因未考虑混淆因素干扰,地理探测器容易高估解释变量的作用,与负二项回归结果的吻合度不高。而结合排除控制法,将混淆因素同质化的样本进行分区分析是规避外生变异和稳健运用地理探测器的可行路径。     

Do suburban residents prefer the fastest or low-carbon travel modes? Combining public participation GIS and multimodal travel time analysis for daily mobility research

Sustainability of urban transportation and residents' daily mobility is increasingly important for the future of urban regions. In this paper, we present a novel methodology combining mapped survey responses (gathered using public participation GIS) and sophisticated multimodal routing analysis to understand patterns of suburban residents' daily mobility. Our particular focus is on residents' mode choices and their optimality in terms of travel time. We also examine the carbon-intensity of potential mode choice mismatches where a comparatively slower travel mode is chosen for a particular trip. This paper shows how the combination of the two data sources create new possibilities for analysing daily mobility by enabling the comparison of self-reported, geographically referenced mobility patterns and modelled, objectively “optimal” patterns. Our case study results from a rapidly growing metropolitan area, Greater Helsinki in Finland, indicate that people have rather sustainable daily mobility practices. Their daily trips are typically short (median 1.8 km), and non-motorised travel modes are the most popular. Also the share of car travel is significant. While public transport clearly has the lowest modal share, it is frequently used on longer trips to destinations where public transport connections are good (particularly the city centre). In 44% of trips, the respondents choose the fastest travel mode. When a comparatively slower travel mode is chosen, it most often produces less CO₂ emissions than the fastest mode. However, particularly on shopping trips – the most commonly reported type of trip – car driving dominates as the fastest means of transportation. When a slower mode is chosen on a shopping trip, it is typically more carbon-intensive than the fastest mode would have been in that case. The methodology presented here can be used to support local decision making, particularly when daily services and transport infrastructure are planned or reorganised.     

Gender Differences in Chauffeuring Children among Dual‐Earner Families

The chauffeuring of children to/from school and childcare providers has received limited attention in previous research, although it structures parents' everyday activities in important ways. Combining analytical and cultural perspectives on juggling employment and caregiving, I explore the impact of such factors as household structure, employment and commute characteristics, residential location, and culturally defined norms about parenthood on chauffeuring arrangements for dual‐earner households in Utrecht, the Netherlands. Fathers conduct a considerable share of chauffeuring trips, but arrangements are often informed by traditional gender norms. The spatial variability in the gendering of chauffeuring is limited.     

Spatiotemporal evolution of urban theft crimes and mechanism in the context of regular COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control: A case study of Haining,Zhejiang北大核心CSCD

新冠疫情的爆发会对区域内犯罪数量产生显著影响。然而,常态化疫情防控是否显著改变了犯罪空间分布格局,仍然有待进一步的实证检验。论文选择始终采取常态化疫情防控措施的浙江海宁市中心城区,采用标准差椭圆、核密度估计方法,对2018年2月—2021年7月城市盗窃犯罪的时空格局演变特征及其机理进行研究。结果表明:(1)新冠疫情爆发后,研究区内盗窃犯罪月均数量较疫情前降幅达53%,并持续在100~200起之间波动,而其日内分布模式却没有明显变化;(2)2020年2月—2021年7月,研究区内盗窃犯罪热点较疫情前有明显减弱、减少,且其犯罪空间分布格局较为稳定;(3)针对疫情前的12个典型犯罪热点区域,其月均犯罪数量在疫情后的降幅在52%~78%之间,其分季度的时间演变模式存在明显差异;(4)根据日常活动理论和犯罪三角理论,常态化疫情防控中有7类具体措施可对各区域的犯罪产生较大影响。研究结果对于理解重大突发公共卫生事件下的犯罪空间演变规律和制定科学的犯罪防控策略均具有重要参考价值。     

基于大数据的上海市共享汽车出行模式研究

共享汽车是城市交通发展的新潮流,论文基于2018年上海市共享汽车运营大数据和城市POI数据,研究共享汽车用户出行的空间、时间和频次特征,并对用户开展出行模式的K均值聚类分析,以期挖掘典型出行规律,为共享汽车运营优化提供依据。研究表明：① 工作日与休息日共享汽车使用行为差异显著,工作日共享汽车出行较集中于中心城区的混合功能区,早晚通勤高峰使用量大;休息日共享汽车出行空间布局较分散,使用量更高、平均单次使用时长更短且仅存在傍晚一个使用高峰。② 上海市共享汽车出行行为可分为工作日通勤的中高频模式,工作日夜间活动的高频模式,工作日偶尔用车晚餐及返家、偶尔用车远距离通勤和夜间长距离返家的低频模式,休息日日间休闲的高频模式、休息日傍晚离家休闲的中长途低频模式、休息日傍晚在休闲地之间穿梭的远距离低频模式、休息日日间加班的低频模式等10种模式。③ 中高频用户主要使用共享汽车实现远距离通勤和周末中长距离休闲活动,空间区域主要集中在中心城区和副中心区域;低频用户使用共享汽车多为夜间、长距离、休息日加班等公共交通难以满足需求、出租车成本过高的情景,空间分布也比较分散。可通过对用户提供差别化用车方案、优化车辆空间调度等方式推进超大城市共享汽车市场发展。     

THE GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSIONS OF AL‐QA'IDA RHETORIC

ABSTRACT. This article examines the geographical ideology of al‐Qa'ida. The central questions are to what extent al‐Qa'ida terrorism is motivated by a desire to control geographical space, and how the organization defines that space as place in its communiqués. The study also asks whether al‐Qa'ida's geographical rhetoric reveals the nature or locations of future attacks. Principal sources are statements and interviews by and with al‐Qa'ida leaders. al‐Qa'ida classifies distinctive geographical realms of legitimization, preparation, and action. Its geographical concerns and ambitions are hierarchical and based principally on perceptions of sacred space. The holy places of Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem are the cornerstones of a greater Islamic holy land that al‐Qa'ida seeks to rid of non‐Islamic‐especially U.S. and “Zionist”‐elements and replace with a new caliphate. Terrorism directed principally against American civilians in the United States is one of the main tactics by which al‐Qa'ida says it hopes to achieve its goals in geographical space.     

Race,Gender, and Constrained Work Trips in Buffalo,NY, 1990

This study investigates whether women's short commutes should be interpreted as constrained or convenient work trips by examining how race, gender, travel mode, occupation, residential location, workplace location, and Inc.ome affect commuting time. The analysis is restricted to a sample of European American and African American male and female workers residing in Buffalo, New York, and the surrounding county using data drawn from the Public Use Microdata Samples of the 1990 U.S. census. Given the pervasive gender wage gap, women unsurprisingly have more compromised (short commutes to low-Inc.ome jobs) work trips than do men. Multivariate analysis reveals that among those who reverse commute to suburban locations, African American women have the longest work trips.     

Race,Gender, and Constrained Work Trips in Buffalo,NY, 1990

This study investigates whether women's short commutes should be interpreted as constrained or convenient work trips by examining how race, gender, travel mode, occupation, residential location, workplace location, and Inc.ome affect commuting time. The analysis is restricted to a sample of European American and African American male and female workers residing in Buffalo, New York, and the surrounding county using data drawn from the Public Use Microdata Samples of the 1990 U.S. census. Given the pervasive gender wage gap, women unsurprisingly have more compromised (short commutes to low-Inc.ome jobs) work trips than do men. Multivariate analysis reveals that among those who reverse commute to suburban locations, African American women have the longest work trips.     

交通发展区位测度的理论与方法

交通建设所引致的区位条件改善对促进各类生产要素集聚和地方经济发展,重塑区域空间结构具有重要作用,因此,交通区位的测度一直是地理学的核心议题之一。随着交通网络的不断发展与完善以及新技术、新模式、新因素和新业态的出现,地方传统区位条件被重构,个人出行理念和模式发生了一系列变化。① 交通区位的测度逐渐从依托空间位置和交通设施发展水平的传统地理区位扩展到依托网络连通性、可靠性与出行便捷性的“流空间”新区位;② 研究对象从关注不同地方的区位特征扩展到关注群体出行规律和个体行为差异的微观区位选择;③ 研究内容从交通设施网络的可达性扩展到基于“门到门”的全链条出行服务;④ 大数据挖掘技术和GIS-T技术的发展也使得交通区位的测度朝着更加精确化和精准化的方向迈进。     

接触型与非接触型犯罪时空稳定性对比及其联合防控——以盗窃和电信网络诈骗为例

近年来,以盗窃为代表的接触型犯罪和以电信网络诈骗为代表的非接触型犯罪均呈多发态势,严重影响社会治安稳定。已有研究对不同类型犯罪分布模式的时空稳定性关注仍不够,且未能提出不同类型犯罪的空间联合防控策略。本文以ZG市HT区为例,以社区为分析单元,运用核密度估计、时空跃迁测度法等方法,对比分析2017年盗窃犯罪和电信网络诈骗犯罪的时空分布特征及其空间分布模式的月度稳定性,并从犯罪防控角度改进时空跃迁测度法,结合二阶聚类法识别两类犯罪联合防控空间类型。研究发现：① 两类犯罪时空稳定性差异大,盗窃犯罪的空间分布模式稳定,月度变化小;而电信网络诈骗犯罪空间稳定性整体波动起伏大,月度变化较大;② 识别出两类犯罪的四种联合防控空间类型,分别是“两类犯罪无需防控社区”“两类犯罪邻域防控社区”“盗窃犯罪热点防控、电信网络诈骗犯罪无需防控社区”“盗窃犯罪连片防控、电信网络诈骗综合防控社区”。该研究有助于了解接触型犯罪和非接触型犯罪时空特征的共性和差异性,给警务联合防控提供决策支持。     

Understanding the spatial distribution of crime in hot crime areas

Hot crime areas are always targeted for police patrol to deter crimes. While much research has studied the distribution patterns of hot crime areas, research on the spatial distribution of crime within hot crime areas remains limited. Using burglary records in a large Chinese city, the ‘hottest’ place with the highest crime density was located using two spatial temporal kernel density estimation methods. The results indicated that the majority of crime within hot crime areas was concentrated within a small area distant from the hot area's center. These results provide a micro view of crime distribution within hot crime areas. Our analysis indicates that the results will not be affected by the methods adopted in identification of hot areas. This research is expected to improve the efficiency of police patrols.     

北京市地铁客流的时空分布格局及特征——基于智能交通卡数据

城市轨道交通是居民绿色出行、缓解大城市交通拥堵的重要交通方式。研究大城市地铁客流时间和空间的分布特征,有利于深入了解大城市公共交通的需求,进而制定合理的交通需求管理政策。本文以北京市地铁为例,计算了431万条智能交通卡数据的出行时间和OD矩阵(Origin-Destination Matrix),研究其客流的时间和空间分布特征。研究发现：①全天、早高峰和晚高峰的出行时间分布符合Gamma分布,总体上离城市中心越远,平均出行时间越长;②从市辖区尺度和环路尺度分析,乘客流向和流量均呈现对称性;③从街道尺度来看,居民地铁出行强度的空间不均等性很强。     

Propagating radial waves of travel cost in a grid

To calculate the minimum cost of travel to each location within a geographical area from a specified set of locations, most geographic information systems represent that area as a rectangular grid of discrete cells, each indicating the cost of traversing that cell's particular location. These increments of cost are then accumulated by proceeding from cell to adjacent cell in a manner that resembles the propagation of waves. Because this propagation is limited to the eight directions associated with each cell's eight neighbors, however, it is often misdirected, and travel costs are therefore often overestimated. This article discusses the context, precedent, design, implementation, performance, and implications of a new algorithm that eliminates such problems in a straightforward manner. It does so by retaining the octangular propagation mechanism of earlier algorithms while keeping track of the particular locations at which propagated waves of accumulating travel cost either refract or diffract. The approach also holds promise for significant improvement in areas ranging from dispersion modeling and shape analysis to interpolation and the delineation of cost-minimizing paths.     

建成环境对星级酒店内被盗的影响——以ZG市中心城区为例

盗窃是中西方酒店内财产犯罪中最为高发的一种,但鲜有研究关注建成环境对酒店被盗的影响。论文以2012—2014年ZG市中心城区发生过被盗的星级酒店作为研究样本,在综合分析酒店被盗时空特征的基础上,选取酒店周围500 m范围内的建成环境指标,利用负二项回归模型,对分时段各类型的星级酒店被盗的影响因素进行系统建模分析。结果表明：被盗星级酒店的时空分布呈现典型的集聚分布特征。不同时段空间“主热点”分布相对稳定,“次热点”有所不同。整体来看,提高服务水平对降低星级酒店被盗的作用最为稳定,周围的兴趣点(Point of Interest, POI)数量会显著增加星级酒店被盗的机会,道路交叉口则对星级酒店被盗起显著监管作用。分模型结果显示,服务水平对三星级和五星级酒店被盗的抑制作用显著,道路交叉口则对以商务客人为主的四星级酒店被盗的抑制作用更强,而POI数量对等级较低的三星、四星酒店被盗作用更为明显;大型零售商业中心能显著增加旅游旺季及周末时段的酒店被盗的数量,道路交叉口数量则对旅游淡季、工作日2个时段的星级酒店被盗风险的监控作用显著。研究表明建成环境在影响ZG市星级酒店被盗的机会和成本方面作用显著。结果验证了日常活动理论在中国大城市星级酒店被盗方面研究的适用性,拓展了犯罪地理学在星级酒店被盗方面的研究成果,对酒店盗窃预防有指导意义。     

职业足球比赛期间球场周边扒窃犯罪的空间分布特征研究

现阶段,关于足球比赛等体育活动影响周边区域犯罪风险的研究主要关注于一般性验证,而缺少对比赛期间不同时间范围内犯罪风险的态势分析及相关空间影响因素的研究。本文以英国伯明翰市的维拉公园球场为例开展实证研究,对2005—2009年赛季的104场职业足球比赛在比赛日和对照日、开赛前和开赛后等不同时间范围内球场周边3 km区域内发生的扒窃类案件的空间分布特征进行了分析,并利用负二项回归模型研究了相应案件的空间影响要素。结果表明：维拉公园球场周边区域内比赛日期间的扒窃案件发案量要明显高于对照日,而在具体的时间分布上,比赛日开赛时间前2小时到开赛后1小时内发生的扒窃案件显著偏多,并且案件在比赛日和对照日、比赛日的开赛前和开赛后期间的空间分布特征明显不同;回归分析结果显示,比赛日期间餐饮消费类场所的扒窃案件风险较为突出,且高于对照日,而对照日期间的扒窃案件风险则主要集中于休闲娱乐等常规性犯罪热点场所;在比赛日的开赛前,扒窃案件风险主要分布于一些人群聚集的公共场所,而在开赛后则主要集中于餐饮类场所,且随着比赛的开始扒窃案件的风险有转移的趋势。本研究对开展基于大数据分析的大型体育活动的犯罪风险精准防控具有一定的指导意义。     

New Development in Educational Cartography

Abstract

A series of computer-generated maps are presented, illustrating the state-level distribution of major crimes in the United States for the year 1968. The maps are divided into two broad groups—those relating to (a) crimes of violence, and (b) crimes against property. In the violent crime group, distributions are shown for murder, rape, robbery, and assault. The dominance of the South in terms of homicide is particularly striking. Burglary, larceny over fifty dollars, and auto theft are the property crimes represented. Western states, and various highly metropolitan states (such as New York) generally exhibit the highest property crime rates. Summary tables show the states with extreme (high or low) crime rates. States with the lowest rates generally lack large metropolitan nodes, while the converse is true, with California, New York, and Maryland heading the list of states with high rates in multiple crime categories.