The integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province of China

This paper describes studies on the integrated risk assessment and zoning of meteorological disaster in Heilongjiang Province,in northeastern China,by using information-diffusion theory and cluster method with 35 years of summer temperature and precipitation data from 74 meteorological stations from 1971 through 2005.The information-diffusion theory has been used extensively in risk assessment,yet almost no one has done research about risk assessment by information-diffusion theory based on meteorological disaster standards.Some research results are as follows:the risk probability of low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is higher than that in the southern region;the risk probability of general low temperature and cold damage in the southwestern region is the highest;the risk probability of serious low temperature and cold damage in the northern region is the highest,followed by the central and southeast region;the high-risk region of arid disaster in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located in the southwestern,central,and southern parts of the province;the high-intensity arid disaster was located in the south-eastern region;the high-risk region of flood in Heilongjiang Province was primarily located from the southwest and then across the central part to the western part of Heilongjiang Province;the high-intensity flood disasters were located in almost every part of Heilongjiang Province.We can conclude from the integrated meteorological disaster risk zoning that the high-risk region of mete-orological disaster is primarily located in the southern and northern part of the province,the moderate-risk region is distributed in the central southern region and western region,the low-risk region is located in the eastern part,and the light-risk region is located in the central western part of Heilongjiang Province.     

中国干旱灾害评估与空间特征分析(英文)

Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops,the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model,which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Pre-cipitation Index (SPI).Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study.The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west dif-ference,with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part.High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau,the central part of Northeast China Plain,the northern part of Heilongjiang,the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau,the southern part of North China Plain,the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain,and Yun-nan-Guizhou Plateau.Furthermore,obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings.     

Analysis of the characteristics of snow drop size distribution in the Qilian Mountains

Under the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) project, a significant amount of snow size data was collected from March to April 2008. However, because of limited observation data for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the modeling behavior was not satisfactory. This paper demonstrates characteristics of the snow drop size distribution (SSD) in this region. The experimental area is located in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The Heihe River Basin, which is the second largest interior river basin in China and is located on the northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains, was selected as the simulation region. This basin ranges from approximately 5,000 m to 1,000 m in elevation. A new generation Parsivel disdrometer, the OTT Parsivel, was used for measurements. Four data sets were compiled to determine the average distributions for four different snowfall rates. The characteristics of the snow particle size distribution in the mountainous area were analyzed. Similar to the raindrop distribution, there was a multi-peak structure. Most peaks appear in the D 2 mm region (D: diameter of the snow drop size). An M-P distribution and a Г distribution were developed based on the precipitation data observed in Qilian mountainous area. We found that the Г distribution has a better fit than the M-P distribution for the actual distribution. In addition, we observed that the intercept parameter (N0) and the slope parameter (Λ) correlate well with the shape parameter (μ). The disdrometer data can also be used to model the reflectivity factor (ZH) and differential reflectivity factor (ZDR). The radar reflectivity (ZHH, ZVV) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) were modeled in order to facilitate understanding of the connections between radar and ground measurements, and were used to support work for the improvement of rainfall estimates by polarimetric radar. Rain rate estimation using radar measurements was based on empirical models, such as the Z-R relationship and R(ZH, ZDR) in the Qilian mountainous areas. The relationship of R=0.017×100.079×ZH-0.022×ZDR is better than R=0.019×100.078×ZH for estimating R (melted snow). The normalized errors (NE) of R(ZH) and R(ZH, ZDR) are 13.22% and 5.20%, respectively.     

Estimation of precipitation condensation latent heat in rainy season over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The basic data for this research comprise the outgoing long-wave radiation(OLR) data observed by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) series satellites from June 1974 through December 2005 over the area of 75°-105°E and 25°-40°N(totaling 91 grid zones when the horizontal resolution is 2.5° longitude by 2.5° latitude) and the monthly rainfall data recorded,from 1961 through 2005,by 93 conventional meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on the research of the relation between rainfall and OLR and climate regionalization,a mathematic model was established for each region and grid zone,which is applied to estimate the monthly rainfall and then to estimate the monthly latent heat resulting from the condensation of precipitation year by year from 1961 through 2005.The results indicated that the multi-year average precipitation is 401.5 mm and the condensation latent heat is 18.55×1020 J in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau;the increasing rate of condensation latent heat is 0.218×1020J/10a in the recent 45 years;that is to say,it will increase 1.2 percent in each decade.Furthermore,the total condensation latent heat and its variation rate in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are slightly larger than in the east to the plateau.     

SURFACE MASS BALANCE AND ITS VARIATION ON THE MIZUHO PLATEAU, ANTARCTICA IN 1987-1988

From the surface mass accumulation data in year of 1987/88, the distribution and variation of annual mass balance on Mizuho Plateau are discussed. The authors also analyze the effects of shortterm climatic and topographical variations on the mass balance. It is found that there are some differences in spatial distribution and annual average state in the year of 1987/88 and other years. Ia the area at elevation lower than 550 m near the coast, the mass balance appears to be negative. The annual mass balance over 80 km distance from S_(16) to inland is 0.84m snow depth. A low mass balance zone from 80 km site to Mizuho Station, is considered to be only 0.14 m snow depth. It is found from the comparison of mass balances that the mass-balance level on the glaciers in West China is 9 times higher than that on Mizuho Plateau, where the massbalance level appears to be low accumulative and low expensive, but inverse in middle and low latitude regions, such as on glaciers in West China. The effects of short-term     

Simulation on slope uncertainty derived from DEMs at different resolution levels： a case study in the Loess Plateau

Slope is one of the crucial terrain variables in spatial analysis and land use planning, especially in the Loess Plateau area of China which is suffering from serious soil erosion. DEM based slope extracting method has been widely accepted and applied in practice. However slope accuracy derived from this method usually does not match with its popularity. A quantitative simulation to slope data uncertainty is important not only theoretically but also necessarily to applications. This paper focuses on how resolution and terrain complexity impact on the accuracy of mean slope extracted from DEMs of different resolutions in the Loess Plateau of China. Six typical geomorphologic areas are selected as test areas, representing different terrain types from smooth to rough. Their DEMs are produced from digitizing contours of 1:10,000 scale topographic maps. Field survey results show that 5 m should be the most suitable grid size for representing slope in the Loess Plateau area. Comparative and math-simulation methodology was employed for data processing and analysis. A linear correlativity between mean slope and DEM resolution was found at all test areas, but their regression coefficients related closely with the terrain complexity of the test areas. If taking stream channel density to represent terrain complexity, mean slope error could be regressed against DEM resolution (X) and stream channel density (S) at 8 resolution levels and expressed as(0.0015S2 0.031S-0.0325)X-0.0045S2-0.155S 0.1625, with a R2 value of over 0.98. Practical tests also show an effective result of this model in applications. The new development methodology applied in this study should be helpful to similar researches in spatial data uncertainty investigation.     

Discussion on possibilities of taking ground ice in permafrost as water sources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during climate warming

Large amounts of ground ice are born with permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Degradation of permafrost resulted from the climate warming will inevitably lead to melting of ground ice.The water released from the melting ground ice enters hydrologic cycles at various levels,and changes regional hydrologic regimes to various degrees.Due to difficulties in monitoring the perma-frost-degradation-release-water process,direct and reliable evidence is few.The accumulative effect of releasing water,however,is remarkable in the macro-scale hydrologic process.On the basis of the monitoring results of water-levels changes in some lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and combined with the previous results of the hydrologic changing trends at the regional scale,the authors preliminarily discussed the possibilities of the degrading permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a potential water source during climate warming.     

城市暴雨内涝情景模拟与灾害风险评估

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hot-spots in disaster research.However,up until now,urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes.This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research,which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China.As an example,we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai.Based on the basic concept of disaster risk,this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods.Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure,we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments.A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach,including an urban terrain model,an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model,was applied to simulate inundation area and depth.Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys,which were further applied to analyse vulnerability,exposure and loss assessment.Finally,the ex-ceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities.A framework was also devel-oped for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss.This is a new explora-tion for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.     

“一带一路”陆域地理格局与环境变化风险（英文）

Building the Belt and Road is initiatives of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aiming at green, health, intellect and peace and the joint development with people of the countries along the route. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risks are certainly the scientific fundamentals of sustainable development for the Belt and Road construction. Applied remote sensing monitoring, statistical analysis, this paper investigates the regional characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and terrestrial ecosystems production, as well as socio-economic conditions. Based on the regional characteristics, the Belt and Road is divided into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate, Mongolia and Russia sub-region with cold and arid climate, Central and West Asia arid sub-region, Southeast Asia sub-region with warm and humid climate, Pakistan arid sub-region, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate, Eastern China monsoon sub-region, Northwest China arid sub-region and Tibetan Plateau sub-region. Combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of extreme events including heat waves, droughts and floods in the coming 30 years(2021–2050). Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would be a warming trend; both sides of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in high temperature and heat waves risk; Central and Eastern Europe sub-region with cold and humid climate in high drought risk; Bangladesh-India-Myanmar sub-region with warm and humid climate as well as Eastern China in high risk of flooding.     

日照市土壤重金属来源解析及环境风险评价（英文）

With rapid economic and social development, soil contamination arising from heavy metals has become a serious problem in many parts of China. We collected a total of 445 samples(0–20 cm) at the nodes of a 2 km×2 km grid in surface soils of Rizhao city, and analyzed sources and risk pattern of 10 heavy metals(As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn). The combination of Multivariate statistics analysis and Geostatistical methods was applied to identify the sources and hazardous risk of heavy metals in soils. The result indicated that Cr, Ni, Co, Mn, Cu, and As were mainly controlled by parent materials and came from natural sources. Cd and Hg originated from anthropogenic sources. Pb and Zn, belonging to different groups in multivariate analysis, were associated with joint effect of parent materials and human inputs. Ordinary Kriging and Indicator Kriging suggested that single element and elements association from the same principal components had similar spatial distribution. Through comprehensive assessment on all elements, we also found the high risk areas were located in the populated urban areas and western study area, which could be attributed to the higher geological background in the western part and strong human interference in the eastern part.     

青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估

雪灾是青藏铁路及其沿线地区所面临的严重自然灾害之一,对其风险等级进行科学评估,是制定应急方案、确保青藏铁路安全运行的重要基础。本文基于历史雪灾数据和铁路相关数据,选择27项指标构建青藏铁路及其沿线的雪灾综合风险评估体系,对青藏铁路沿线积雪雪灾、雪崩雪灾和风吹雪雪灾的致灾危险性、铁路系统的脆弱性进行了综合分析。分析表明：青藏铁路沿线雪灾高风险区分布在唐古拉-安多路段,雪灾中等风险区主要分布在天峻-乌兰、五道梁-安多等2个路段,雪灾低风险区主要集中在西宁-天峻、德令哈-格尔木和那曲-拉萨等3个路段。从整个青藏铁路沿线来看,青南高原路段是青藏铁路沿线雪灾综合风险等级最高的区域。     

Estimation of Critical Rainfall for Flood Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed, and a large amount of solid water, such as glaciers and perpetual snow, is transformed into liquid water, which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau. Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau, and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation, and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise. The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area; the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley. Finally, we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau, followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau, and the lowest values are in the central, western and northern parts of the Plateau.     

青藏高原腹地多年冻土区地表反照率的季节变化及主要影响因子

准确获取青藏高原地表反照率的季节变化特征对高原地表能水循环研究具有重要意义。本文利用青藏高原多年冻土区西大滩和唐古拉2007年的气象及辐射数据,运用相关分析方法研究了太阳高度角、积雪及活动层冻融过程对地表反照率变化的影响。结果显示:冷暖季降雪过程中地表反照率的变化差异较明显;地表无积雪覆盖期间,地表反照率与气温和表层土壤含水量呈反相关关系。利用多元回归分析法构建了以积雪日数和气温为影响因子的月均地表反照率计算回归方程,经检验与观测值对比平均相对误差为7.1%,可用于青藏高原北部地表反照率的估算。     

青海南部牧区前冬积雪变化及其预测的关系模型研究

利用1961-2008年青海南部牧区地面气象观测资料、74个环流特征量和北半球500 hPa高度场网格点资料,整理了地表积雪序列和雪灾年表,并对积雪的变化趋势和雪灾发生的机理进行了研究。结果表明,1961-2008年青南牧区共有16 a发生积雪灾害,占总年数的33.33%。在4 450 m以下,累计积雪量随海拔高度的升高而增加,在4 451 m以上,累计积雪量随海拔高度的升高而减小。典型多积雪年新地岛地区的冷空气偏强、高原低值系统活动偏多,新地岛的冷空气容易沿偏西北路径侵入青南高原与高空槽前的暖湿空气汇合,形成云雨的物理条件充分,降雪多、积雪厚。典型少积雪年环流形势与上述基本相反。10-12月北美区极涡面积偏大和欧亚经向环流偏强、10月欧亚经向环流偏强、11月大西洋欧洲环流型E型日数偏多、12月大西洋副高北界位置偏北均有利于前冬青藏高原高度场的偏低和青南牧区累计积雪量的偏多。这些环流因子在相反的配置下,容易导致青南牧区累计积雪量的偏少。前冬模拟预报方程对典型多积雪年和1993年以来的积雪变化趋势全部预测成功。     

畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估研究进展与展望

畜牧业雪灾是牧区冬、春季节最严重的自然灾害之一,往往会造成大量牲畜伤亡,严重威胁和制约了牧区畜牧业生产和高质量发展,未来气候变化使得畜牧业雪灾风险存在着更大的不确定性。论文基于区域自然灾害系统理论,梳理了畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程和风险评估的理论框架,从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体等方面系统总结了当前研究进展,以及存在的主要问题。最后针对今后畜牧业雪灾研究进行了展望,主要包括以下6个方面：① 增强草高估算和雪深反演精度研究;② 深化积雪分配过程研究及多致灾因子与孕灾环境耦合的危险性分析;③ 强化缺氧环境对畜牧业雪灾致灾成害过程的影响机制研究;④ 加强牲畜暴露分布的时空变化研究;⑤推进畜牧业雪灾减灾措施的成本效益分析;⑥ 加强气候变化背景下畜牧业雪灾风险定量评估和多学科交叉研究。     

青藏高原边界地区天然水的水化学性质及其成因（英文）

The special geography and human environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has created the unique hydrochemical characteristics of the region's natural water, which has been preserved in a largely natural state. However, as the intensity of anthropogenic activities in the region has continued to increase, the water environment and hydrochemical characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have altered. In this study, water samples from the western, southern, and northeastern border areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where human activities are ongoing, were collected, analyzed, and measured. The regional differences and factors controlling them were also investigated. The key results were obtained as follows.(1) Differences in the physical properties and hydrochemical characteristics, and their controlling factors, occurred in the different boundary areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These differences were mainly the consequence of the geographical environment and geological conditions.(2) The water quality was good and suitable for drinking, with most samples meeting GB(Chinese national) and WHO(World Health Organization) drinking water standards.(3) The chemical properties of water were mainly controlled by the weathering of carbonates and the dissolution of evaporative rocks, with the former the most influential.(4) The biological quality indicators of natural water in the border areas were far superior to GB and WHO drinking water standards.     

青藏高原大骨节病流行区环境、食物及人群硒水平研究

为了解青藏高原大骨节病流行区环境、食物及人群硒水平的分布现状,论文通过CNKI、Web of Science和Google Scholar等数据库检索收集了2000—2018年间发表的关于青藏高原大骨节病病区土壤、粮食、饮水及人发硒含量的文献,按拟定标准共筛选出33篇文献并提取有效数据进行统计分析。结果显示,青藏高原大骨节病病区自然环境总体仍处于低硒循环状态,其中耕作土壤、饮水平均硒含量分别为0.147 mg·kg^-1和0.54 μg·L^-1,高原自产青稞、小麦、糌粑平均含硒量分别为9.27、19.08、11.07 μg·kg^-1;而病区儿童整体硒营养水平较1990年以前有明显升高趋势,发硒平均含量为0.234 mg·kg^-1,已基本脱离硒缺乏状态(<0.20 mg·kg^-1);外源性大米的硒含量为43.29 μg·kg^-1;病区儿童发硒水平与土壤总硒含量无明显相关关系(r=0.125,P>0.05,N=23)。青藏高原大骨节病流行区儿童发硒水平与自然环境硒水平不一致的变化趋势提示,随着社会人文因素的干预,外源性硒的输入有所增加,并在一定程度上降低了病区人群对当地低硒环境的依赖性,这可能是青藏高原大骨节病病情稳定下降并得到有效控制的主要原因。     

"美丽冰冻圈"融入区域发展的途径与模式

在探讨“美丽冰冻圈”内涵的基础上,从自然属性与社会经济两个层面、致利与致害两条线,分析了“美丽冰冻圈”与区域可持续发展的关系,“美丽冰冻圈”、区域社会经济发展、人类福祉构成冰冻圈—人类社会经济复合命运共同体。基于中国冰冻圈要素及其变化影响的区域差异性,选取祁连山—河西地区、青藏高原三江源地区、横断山大香格里拉地区,分别代表冰冻圈水资源影响区、冰冻圈灾害影响区、冰冻圈旅游经济区,围绕冰冻圈水资源服务与绿洲经济、雪灾害风险与畜牧业经济、冰雪旅游与区域经济等核心问题,从冰冻圈资源服务与灾害风险视角,详细阐述了冰冻圈融入不同区域发展的途径与模式。在干旱半干旱内陆地区,冰冻圈主要以水源涵养、水量供给与径流调节服务,融入绿洲社会经济发展,是一种冰冻圈水资源支撑型区域发展模式;在青藏高原高寒区,冰冻圈生态环境决定了畜牧业经济的脆弱性,冰冻圈灾害负向影响畜牧业经济,是一种冰冻圈生态支撑+灾害影响型区域发展模式;在冰冻圈旅游经济区,直接依托冰雪资源发展冰雪旅游业,是一种基于冰冻圈资源的旅游经济驱动型区域发展模式。     

青藏铁路沿线自然灾害地理组合特征分析

根据青藏铁路沿线26个行政单元自然灾害的历史记录,对沿线的洪水、山洪、地震、雪灾、风灾以及滑坡、泥石流和崩塌等自然灾害进行量化分析,通过自然灾害灾种、频次的统计和聚类分析将青藏铁路沿线划分为6个自然灾害组合分区,其中,拉萨河谷路段主要以洪水、滑坡灾害为主;羌塘高原路段主要以雪灾、风灾为主,青南高原路段以雪灾、地震灾害为主;柴达木盆地路段以风灾、地震等灾害为主;青海湖盆地路段以洪水、雪灾为主;湟水谷地路段以洪水、山洪、滑坡灾害为主。拉萨河谷路段和湟水谷地路段的自然灾害类型组合具有相似性。