城市化进程中郊区农民迁移意愿模型——对广州的实证研究

基于行为地理学和经济学相关理论,依据农户调查数据,采用定量方法,对影响郊区农民迁移意愿的外在环境因素和内在自身因素进行了分析,构建了城市化进程中郊区农民的迁移意愿模型.模型表明:在市场经济环境下,农民的迁移行为选择是理性的,农民是否迁移取决于能否获得预期迁移收益的最大化,而农民的最大化收益又取决于其所处的外在环境因素和内在自身因素的综合作用.     

城镇化进程中农民进城落户意愿影响因素——以河南省郸城县为例

基于“推—拉”理论、新经济学劳动力流动理论,剖析了农民进城落户意愿的城乡作用力、农民进城落户的内部影响因素,并结合郸城县169 份农户有效问卷和村干部调查数据,采用Logistic 回归模型进行了实证检验.结果表明：①农民进城落户意愿可用“推力—拉力”范式解释,包括生活便捷程度、子女的受教育环境、养老医疗等社会福利保障水平、家庭收入和非农就业、消费和生活成本,其中,便捷的生活环境和良好的子女受教育环境是最大的城镇拉力,没有稳定的非农工作是最大的城镇推力.②农民进城落户决策的影响因素涉及个人因素、家庭因素和村庄因素三个层面.年龄、文化程度、家庭生活水平、亲朋好友是否进城落户、村庄医疗卫生条件是影响郸城县农民进城落户决策的主要因素,其中文化程度、亲朋好友是否迁户的影响效应为正,年龄、家庭生活水平及村医疗卫生条件的影响效应为负.     

中国农民进城定居的意愿与影响因素——基于CGSS2010的分析

新型城镇化是以人为核心的城镇化,因此农民城镇化意愿备受关注。基于2010年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010)的数据,采用描述性统计和多层次Logistic回归模型,探讨了农民进城定居意愿和对不同等级城镇的选择偏好,并分析了其影响因素。研究表明:农民进城定居意愿较弱,且大多倾向于在县城或小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居。农民的进城意愿和城市偏好存在着显著的地理空间异质性。来自于同一村庄的农民,其进城意愿和对不同等级城镇的偏好具有较多的相似性。影响农民进城意愿的主要因素包括:个体人力资本禀赋、家庭人口结构、物质资本存量、城乡联系以及地区社会经济发展水平等。地区经济发展水平和地理区位是农民选择到小城镇而非地级及以上城市定居的主要影响因素。因此,促进县域城镇化发展,提高农民人力资本和家庭收入,是实现农村城镇化和农民市民化的有效途径。     

城镇化进程中农户宅基地退出的决策行为及影响因素

探讨农户宅基地退出的行为规律及影响因素,对于提高土地资源利用效率,推进城镇化进程具有重要意义.基于山东省的农户问卷调查数据,运用Probit模型揭示了农户宅基地退出的决策行为及其影响因素.研究表明:① 在给予退出补偿的前提下,愿意进城落户的农户占63.67%,愿意退出宅基地的农户占47.66%.愿意进城落户的农户中同时愿意退出宅基地的占58.90%,占全部愿意退出宅基地农户的78.69%.② 补偿方式,转户进城意愿是正向影响农民宅基地退出决策最重要的因素,揭示了"退有所居"是进城落户农民退出宅基地时关注的核心问题,也说明农户的城镇化意愿与宅基地退出意愿存在正向互馈关系.职业类型,家庭年收入,宅基地面积等指标也具有明显的正向作用.③ 家庭人口数量对农户宅基地退出的决策行为具有显著负向影响.针对愿意转户进城农户,宅基地多置和超标占地农户和非农户,从有偿使用,退出补偿等视角提出了宅基地退出的政策建议.     

北京市老年人口迁移意愿及影响因素研究

北京正处于快速老龄化阶段,随着城市化进程的加深,迁移老年人的生活环境发生着剧烈的变化。分析北京市城市功能拓展区中老年人的迁移意愿及其影响因素,具有重要的实践意义。选择北京城市功能拓展区中4个新建小区为案例区,收集有效调查问卷353份,采用描述性统计和Logistic回归研究北京市老年人口的迁移意愿及其影响因素。研究发现：已迁移老年人中,71.4%的老年人愿意迁移。与子女居住距离的变化、孙辈的出生以及居住条件的改善是自主迁移老年人迁移的主要原因。老年人生命历程的变化对迁移行为有重要影响。老年人的身体健康、经济条件、与子女居住距离和居住环境对其迁移意愿影响显著。本文的研究意义在于结合老年人迁移的影响因素与宜居社区建设政策,为构建老年宜居社区提供科学依据。     

家庭视角的流动人口城市定居意愿及其影响机制 ——基于中国8个城市的实证分析

采用了8个具有代表性城市的抽样调查数据，基于家庭视角对流动人口家庭城市定居意愿及其影响因素进行研究。通过从长期居住打算、社会保障、社会认同、家庭迁移、户口迁移等方面构建家庭城市定居意愿指数（FSI），研究发现：武汉、无锡、苏州、西安的流动人口家庭城市定居意愿较高，上海处于中间水平，而泉州、长沙和咸阳的流动人口的家庭城市定居意愿较低。采用回归分析发现：不同城市流动人口定居意愿的影响因素存在一定差异，但家庭因素的影响具有一致性，呈现所在城市越有利于对其家庭成员的照顾和发展，流动人口家庭城市定居意愿则越强烈的特征。最后，提出创建“家庭友好型”的城乡发展新秩序，实现流动人口家庭城市定居和发展，提升人口城市化质量。     

企业迁移的动因识别——基于内容分析法的研究

通过对2000~2009年中国重要报纸全文数据库中涉及的116次企业迁移的相关报道的内容分析,着重识别了促使中国企业迁移的各种动因以及不同动因的相对重要性。结果表明,首先,政策动因、经济动因、战略动因和情感动因是中国企业迁移的四大类动因,涉及环境管理、业务调整等15个具体动因;其次,四大类动因中政策动因显得更为重要,其次是战略动因和经济动因,情感动因的重要性十分有限;再次,不同动因对迁移年份、迁移主体和迁移范围不同的企业而言的重要性存在显著差异,具体来说,近年来政策动因的重要性逐渐增强且超越了战略与经济动因,同时政策动因还是企业整体迁移和区域内迁移的最重要动因,而对部分迁移和跨区域迁移而言最重要的则是经济动因。     

论都市郊区游憩景观规划与景观生态保护——以北京市郊区游憩景观规划为例

城市化是我国21世纪经济社会全面发展的重要推动力量,城乡一体化整合发展是城市化发展的战略主题。面向都市圈的游憩产业和游憩景观成为郊区发展中最活跃的经济成分和景观要素。科学合理地利用郊区开放空间和进行游憩景观规划对保护都市圈景观生态环境具有重要意义。本文以北京市郊区为例,在典型研究郊区景观利用与景观生态破坏和定量评价景观行为相容度的基础上,论述了都市郊区景观开发与游憩景观规划的规律、游憩景观区域规划和乡村游憩景观规划,并提出了建设北京市郊区完善的游憩景观体系和景观生态保护的具体措施。     

乡村文化与"三农"关系研究--以商丘市为例

中国传统文化和农业文化结合形成了乡村文化,农民在乡村文化环境中形成了"落后、封闭、固化、狭隘"的文化观念。千百年来,乡村文化观念已成为农民心理结构的主要成份,并对他们的思想感情、行为活动一直起着制约作用,进而影响着农业生产的发展和农村面貌的改变,解决"三农"问题的关键在于转变传统的乡村文化观念。因此,从根本上解决"三农"问题的策略是:首先提高农民文化素质,转变其乡村文化观念;其次是对农用土地进行规划整治,改变农村面貌,调整农业结构,促使农业全面发展;第三是加快城市化进程,实现城乡一体化,加强城乡文化交流、整合,使城乡共同发展。     

中国农业转移人口的户籍迁移家庭化决策

积极推动农业转移人口落户城镇是新型城镇化建设的重点任务。随着多数流入地城市落户门槛的降低和人口流动模式的改变,农业转移人口户籍迁移决策的影响因素从单一制度门槛向人口多元需求转变。本文从家庭决策的视角构建中国农业转移人口户籍迁移的分析框架,重点关注城乡权益交换对户籍迁移家庭化的影响。基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的实证研究发现,农业转移人口户籍迁移的决策主体是家庭,决策目标是家庭利益最大化,决策机制是户籍关联的城市和乡村权益间的权衡。具体地,户籍迁移存在“家庭团聚效应”,即夫妻一方获取城市户口会提升另一方落户城市的主观意愿。农村三权都存在降低户籍迁移意愿的“滞留效应”;同时,更多的农村权益意味着乡-城权益互换的成本提升,如果夫妻一方已经获得城市户口,另一方落户城市带来的权益增长将远低于放弃农村户口的权益损失,导致多数农业转移人口家庭在利益权衡之下选择“城乡分离”的户籍策略以实现城乡权益的总和最大化,最终户籍迁移呈现出逆家庭化的特征。     

中国东、西部小城镇比较研究--以甘肃与江苏为例

以江苏、甘肃两省56个中心小城镇的调查统计数据为基础,定量揭示了我国东、西部小城镇的一些主要社会、经济指标差异,探讨了造成差异的原因。指出要全面实现小康社会,要缩小城、乡差异和东、西部差异以及要顺利实现西部大开发的战略目标,西部小城镇的加速发展是必要条件。西部有大量相对贫困的农村剩余劳动力等待转移。只靠大中城市是无法吸纳他们的。由于多种条件所限,西部不可能发展建设东部那样许多大中城市,城市的规模应该小一些。西部目前迫切需要的是更多、更有活力的小城镇。西部小城镇发展虽然在地理环境和区位条件上不如东部,但只要在小城镇建设中注重地方特色、规划管理以及科技教育等方面的工作,就有可能逐步缩小与东部小城镇的差异。     

A case for internal migration policy in India

Migration helps to minimize regional, socioeconomic, and cultural disparities, and is considered to be an integral component of the development process. Migration helps to diffuse development, technology, and innovations from more developed areas or cities to rural or less developed areas. Little attention, however, has been paid to migration policy in India. Most studies on migration in India either describe the patterns of migration or analyze reasons for the moves. This paper discusses why migration takes place, what are the consequences of migration, whether India has a migration policy, whether India needs a migration policy, and what type of policy is required. The development and entrenchment of urban slums in India is related to the country's lack of migration policy. A two-pronged policy on migration is thus proposed which would ensure employment opportunities and an improved standard of living in rural areas, while taking into account the planning of cities and city surroundings. Rural areas and small towns need to be provided with more employment opportunities, financial and technological support to process raw materials, infrastructure for agricultural service centers, better education and other facilities to improve local living standards, and the diffusion of industries from big cities to district headquarters and medium-size towns. Commensurate efforts should be made in urban centers to prevent the future development of slums.     

Migration trends in British rural areas from the 18th to the 20th centuries

"Longitudinal residential histories are used to examine the extent to which three rural areas in Britain had distinctive migration histories from the 18th to the 20th centuries. Migration flows into and out of the regions are used to examine the extent to which the regions were integrated into the British migration system, and the relative importance of rural to urban migration is assessed.... Analysis reveals a high degree of short-distance mobility within regions and emphasises the dominance of London in longer-distance migration.... It is also suggested that the role of towns in the migration system has previously been overemphasised, with much migration taking place between small settlements and some movement from large cities to smaller towns and villages.... The analysis challenges some accepted notions about migration in the past, and contributes to the debate about the extent to which British regions became part of a national economic and social system from the 18th century."     

论中国未来城镇化道路的选择

中国未来的城市化政策应该有利于打破城乡分割体制的限制,并促进资源和要素按照市场的原则合理地向不同规模等级的城镇集中。中国城镇化应当按照"以市场为导向,大中小为一体,促两头带中间"的战略方针,在结构上,以大城市为龙头,以中等城市为纽带,以小城镇为依托;在数量上,适当发展大城市,积极发展中等城市,大力发展小城镇;在借鉴别国的成功经验的基础上,紧密结合中国的实际,探索出一条具有中国特色的城镇化道路。     

水资源约束下的张掖绿洲城镇发展模式初步研究

水资源是绿洲城镇存在和发展的重要约束因子,它影响到绿洲城镇的产业结构、空间格局、规模等级及生态环境。张掖绿洲城镇水资源紧缺,利用结构不合理,经济效益低下。选择合理的绿洲城镇发展模式,可使水资源的持续利用和绿洲城镇的快速发展达到良性循环。本文以提高水资源经济效益和绿洲城镇健康发展为模式选择的约束条件,提出了节水防污型城镇模式、商贸枢纽型城镇模式、特色农业型城镇模式及生态型城镇模式。     

跨界的城市增长——以江阴经济开发区靖江园区为例

近年来,长江三角洲的一些城市出现了资源耗竭或紧缺的问题．由此引发了城市间合作共建工业区和开发区的新现象。因为在此类工业园区中也往往伴随着行政管理权力在合作城市之间的转移．所以这种城市合作的创新可以被视作跨界的城市增长。本研究在增长联盟的理论视角下对江阴经济开发区靖江园区的跨界城市增长进行了研究．深入探讨了各级地方政府、企业、地方媒体和农民四种参与者在联盟形成中的作用和互动。研究在理论上证实了城市尺度以上增长联盟的存在．丰富了增长联盟理论、在对中国城市政治的研究上．研究发现地方政府和企业结成的增长联盟已经在中国城市中出现。同时．农民结成的反增长联盟也在不断壮大,这主要是由于土地征用、缺乏就业机会和不合理的拆迁安置造成的。江阴-靖江的经验与问题也将为其他城市的跨界发展提供借鉴。     

黄河流域乡镇人口—经济增长与收缩格局及影响因素

增长与收缩是区域转型发展过程中的世界性议题,然而其判别标准与驱动机制研究还比较薄弱。因而,论文构建人口、经济增长与收缩的判别标准和理论(驱动力—结果—响应)分析框架,利用统计数据与NPP/VIIRS系列遥感数据,借助ArcGIS可视化分析工具和广义加性模型探究黄河流域5268个乡镇增长与收缩的格局及影响因素。结果发现：黄河流域乡镇人口、经济增长与收缩并存,人口收缩乡镇主要集中在“几字湾”地区,经济收缩乡镇主要集中在上、中游地区,关中、中原以及山东半岛城市群是人口—经济增长的核心区域。乡镇增长与收缩可分为持续增长型(6.4%)、转型增长型(5.8%)、缓慢增长型(42.4%)与持续收缩型(45.4%)4种,增长型乡镇主要分布在下游地区,收缩型乡镇主要分布在上、中游地区,其中技术密集型、劳动密集型城市的乡镇增长态势明显,资源型城市收缩型乡镇所占比重较大。自然条件的多个阈值表明平原地区、高海拔地区的乡镇均存在增长优势,规模经济与交通区位整体对乡镇增长具有促进作用,但涓滴效应与外部性会造成乡镇的收缩。不同增长与收缩类型的乡镇应当探索因地制宜的增长与转型路径。     

The Sponge City Hypothesis: does it hold water?

The notion of sponge cities has attracted considerable attention in the media, in the policy arena, and in academia. It rests on the notion that some regional centres ‘soak up’ population and business from a ‘pool’ of surrounding areas, thereby appearing as ‘oases’ of growth in areas of population decline. Specifically, the notion of sponge cities rests on two premises and a deduction: some large towns and provincial cities are growing; surroundings areas are losing population; therefore, the growth results from the relocation of people from outlying farms and smaller towns to the nearby growing centres. Despite its popularity, the notion has largely gone untested. Investigation of migration trends in Dubbo and Tamworth (New South Wales, Australia), frequently cited as sponge cities, over the period 1986–2001 shows that the reality is much more complex than the simple metaphor suggests. The contribution made by the ‘pool’ to the growth of the regional ‘sponges’ is relatively minor. This calls into question the value of the notion of a sponge city—and the use of metaphors in social science more generally.     

Recent trends in human migrations: the case of the Venezuelan Andes

Changes in world capitalism caused prices of traditional raw materials to fall and new energy demands to arise at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. The Andean countries witnessed the fall in the value of their exports and began to receive large flows of foreign investment in mining and industry. Consequently, urban economies were strengthened and demographic patterns were changed. This led to the internal migrations and to a process of social change. These consequences are summarized from relevant studies focusing on Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. Since the 1960s a compendium of information has become available which highlights the causes of the migration, migration patterns, the composition of migratory movements, and the mechanisms that the migrant uses to establish himself/herself in the city. Preston (1969) distinguished 2 migratory patterns in Ecuador: rural to urban, with migratory flows from the rural areas to urban centers and new industrial cities that experienced development and high demand for unskilled labor at comparatively high wages: and rural to rural, based on the movement of population from depressed rural areas to other areas in which programs for colonization or commercial agriculture have been promoted. In a study of Colombia, McGreevey (1968) identifies the lack of cultivatable land, rural violence in certain departments, and other economic and family causes as the principal factors that induced migrations to the cities. The study emphasizes that the predominant model of movement relates to "fill in" migration. The spatial mobility of the Venezuelan Andean population was initially outlined in a voluminous report on economic and social problems of the region (1954). The study indicates that during the intercensal period 1941-50 cities grew much more rapidly than rural "municipos" and that the drive to find employment and earn a living were the most important motives in the movement of peasants to the cities. All of the studies identified that use demographic, economic, or phychosocial approaches have provided partial explanations of the current status of Andean migrations. The explanations they offer, by not transcending the current reality of the migrants, overlook the historical traits of internal migration. Migratory flows do not spring up suddenly. They result from specific socio-political circumstances which, when closely linked to demographic evidence, serve as a basis for understanding the process. Review of studies on internal migration in the Northern Andes, as presented here, reveals a series of distinguishing characteristics: there are 5 migratory patterns--rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to urban, seasonal worker migration, and return migration, and the predominant pattern has been rural to urban; the demographic data show the importance of rural migrants to urban growth in the region and a complementary loss of population in the rural areas; depopulation of the countryside has been selective; and there is a marked disparity in employment remuneration between rural and urban areas.