Prolonged impact of earthquake-induced landslides on sediment yield in a mountain watershed: The Tanzawa region, Japan

To determine for how long a landslide affects sediment discharge, the sediment yields of 15 check-dam basins were compared with the time series of landslide distributions in a mountain basin in the Tanzawa region, central Japan. The distribution of sediment yield was quantitatively estimated from deposition in the sediment pools of check dams. The relationship between the landslide history and sediment discharge in the Nakagawa River basin was examined for an approximately 80-year period. Two major landslide events occurred during this period: the 1923 Kanto Earthquake and the 1972 disaster caused by heavy rainfall. The resulting trend in sediment discharge of the whole basin, estimated using reservoir sedimentation in the Miho Dam at its base, was nearly constant, with high sediment discharge (2897 m³ km^− 2 yr^− 1) in the intervening quarter-century, despite the recovery of vegetation on landslide areas in this period. Comparisons of the landslide distributions resulting from the two disasters, the sediment yields of check-dam basins, and the sediment discharge of the whole basin indicate that recent sediment discharge contains landslide debris that was originated by the Kanto Earthquake that occurred over 80 years ago. Thus, to understand high sediment discharge, it is essential to investigate not only the current basin condition and recent events, but also the landslide history of the basin for at least the previous 100 years.     

Initiation conditions for debris flows generated by runoff at Chalk Cliffs, central Colorado

We have monitored initiation conditions for six debris flows between May 2004 and July 2006 in a 0.3 km² drainage basin at Chalk Cliffs; a band of hydrothermally-altered quartz monzonite in central Colorado. Debris flows were initiated by water runoff from colluvium and bedrock that entrained sediment from rills and channels with slopes ranging from about 14° to 45°. The availability of channel material is essentially unlimited because of thick channel fill and refilling following debris flows by rock fall and dry ravel processes. Rainfall exceeding I = 6.61(D)^− 0.77, where I is rainfall intensity (mm/h), and D is duration (h), was required for the initiation of debris flows in the drainage basin. The approximate minimum runoff discharge from the surface of bedrock required to initiate debris flows in the channels was 0.15 m³/s. Colluvium in the basin was unsaturated immediately prior to (antecedent) and during debris flows. Antecedent, volumetric moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 4–9%, and 4–7%, respectively. During debris flows, peak moisture levels in colluvium at depths of 1 cm and 29 cm ranged from 10–20%, and 4–12%, respectively. Channel sediment at a depth of 45 cm was unsaturated before and during debris flows; antecedent moisture ranged from 20–22%, and peak moisture ranged from 24–38%. Although we have no measurements from shallow rill or channel sediment, we infer that it was unsaturated before debris flows, and saturated by surface-water runoff during debris flows.Our results allow us to make the following general statements with regard to debris flows generated by runoff in semi-arid to arid mountainous regions: 1) high antecedent moisture levels in hillslope and channel sediment are not required for the initiation of debris flows by runoff, 2) locations of entrainment of sediment by successive runoff events can vary within a basin as a function of variations in the thickness of existing channel fill and the rate of replenishment of channel fill by rock fall and dry ravel processes following debris flows, and 3) rainfall and simulated surface-water discharge thresholds can be useful in understanding and predicting debris flows generated by runoff and sediment entrainment.     

Episodic wood loading in a mountainous neotropical watershed

The Upper Rio Chagres drains 414 km² of steep, mountainous terrain in central Panama. A tropical air mass thunderstorm on 10 July 2007 produced a flood across the basin that peaked at 720 m³ s^− 1 at a headwaters gage draining 17.5 km² and 1710 m³ s^− 1 at a downstream gage draining 414 km². The storm also triggered numerous landslides in the upper basin, which facilitated the formation of large logjams along portions of the channel where transport capacity of wood was reduced by a change in channel geometry such as a bend or channel expansion. During field work in February 2008, we characterized three jams with surface areas of 400–2450 m²; two of these jams resulted in storage of substantial (1100–8200 m³) sediment wedges upstream. We returned to these sites in March 2009 to document changes in the logjams and sediment storage. Drawing on observations made in the basin since 2002, and site visits during 2008 and 2009, we suggest that jams such as these last two years or less. We propose that wood dynamics in the Upper Chagres alternate between brief periods of moderate wood load in the form of large logjams and much longer periods of essentially no wood load, a situation that contrasts with the more consistent wood loads in catchments of similar size in temperate environments and with limited studies of more consistent wood load in tropical catchments with no landslides.     

Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya

Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D^− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h^− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which N_I = 1.10D^− 0.59 (N_I = normalized intensity in h^− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.     

Geomorphological study of long-term erosion on a tropical volcanic ocean island: Tahiti-Nui (French Polynesia)

A quantitative geomorphological study has been made on 27 river basins in Tahiti-Nui volcanic island (French Polynesia) to reconstruct the erosional evolution of a young oceanic island subjected to heavy tropical rainfall. Tahiti-Nui is composed of a main shield volcano cut by two huge landslides on each side of a main E–W rift zone. The northern landslide depression was rapidly buried by the construction of a second shield, the late activity of which overflowed the crest and then filled the southern landslide depression. The island is now volcanically inactive and is deeply dissected by erosion. The present geometries of the river basins are first compared using dimensionless parameters derived from a digital elevation model. The original volcanic surfaces are then reconstructed to estimate the volumes removed by erosion and determine the average rates of long-term erosion. The basins developed on the flanks of the main shield are wider, shallower, and gentler than the basins incising the post-landslide second shield, indicating a higher degree of evolution. Rainfall concentration on the windward (eastern) side of the island also contributed to increase the vertical lowering of the volcanic relief and the enlargement of the valleys. The magnitude of erosion, however, is neither directly linked with the age of the units incised nor with the differential amounts of rainfall. Erosion rates determined over the last 1 Myr range between 10^− 3 km³ kyr^− 1 and 0.25 km³ kyr^− 1. The highest values occur in the basins incising the main E–W rift zone and/or the lateral rims of the northern and southern landslide depressions. Long-term dissection has thus been enhanced along the geological discontinuities of the eruptive system. Deep erosion was first constrained along the axis of the main E–W rift zone, where numerous dykes compartmentalize the volcanic structure into large unstable blocks. Dykes most probably acted as mechanical discontinuities along which shallow gravitational landslides recurrently occurred. Such mass-wasting episodes produced significant amounts of debris, partly preserved as highly indurated sedimentary breccias of various ages exposed at various locations. Subsequent dissection of Tahiti-Nui was enhanced to the north and to the south, leading to the rapid evolution of the Papenoo and Taharuu drainage systems over the last 500 kyr. Long-term dissection on Tahiti-Nui has been responsible for the removal of at least 350 km³ of volcanic material from the surface, and for the partial exhumation of a shallow intrusive complex partly composed of coarse-grained plutonic rocks (gabbros and syenites) in the central part of the eruptive system. Structurally controlled erosion is thus a key component of landscape evolution on such high-relief oceanic tropical islands.     

Suspended sediment transport in a highly erodible catchment: The River Isábena (Southern Pyrenees)

Understanding and quantifying sediment load is important in catchments draining highly erodible materials that eventually contribute to siltation of downstream reservoirs. Within this context, the suspended sediment transport and its temporal dynamics have been studied in the River Isábena (445 km², south-central Pyrenees, Ebro basin) by means of direct sampling and turbidity recording during a 3-year dry period. The average flood-suspended sediment concentration was 8 g l^− 1, with maximum instantaneous values above 350 g l^− 1. The high scatter between discharge and suspended sediment concentrations (up to five orders of magnitude) has not permitted the use of rating curve methods to estimate the total load. Interpolation techniques yielded a mean annual sediment load of 184,253 t y^− 1 for the study period, with a specific yield of 414 t km^− 2 y^− 1. This value resembles those reported for small torrents in nearby mountainous environments and is the result of the high connectivity between the badland source areas and stream courses, a fact that maximises sediment conveyance through the catchment. Floods dominated the sediment transport and yield. However, sediment transport was more constant through time than that observed in Mediterranean counterparts; this can be attributed to the role of base flows that entrain fine sediment temporarily stored in the channel and force the river to carry high sediment concentrations (i.e., generally in the order of 0.5 g l^− 1), even under minimum flow conditions.     

Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings.Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D^− 0.7 and I = 9.5D^− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours).Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D^−0.4, and I = 7.2D^−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D^−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires.The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.     

Landslides in the Central Coalfield (Cantabrian Mountains, NW Spain): Geomorphological features, conditioning factors and methodological implications in susceptibility assessment

A geomorphological study focussing on slope instability and landslide susceptibility modelling was performed on a 278 km² area in the Nalón River Basin (Central Coalfield, NW Spain). The methodology of the study includes: 1) geomorphological mapping at both 1:5000 and 1:25,000 scales based on air-photo interpretation and field work; 2) Digital Terrain Model (DTM) creation and overlay of geomorphological and DTM layers in a Geographical Information System (GIS); and 3) statistical treatment of variables using SPSS and development of a logistic regression model. A total of 603 mass movements including earth flow and debris flow were inventoried and were classified into two groups according to their size. This study focuses on the first group with small mass movements (10⁰ to 10¹ m in size), which often cause damage to infrastructures and even victims. The detected conditioning factors of these landslides are lithology (soils and colluviums), vegetation (pasture) and topography. DTM analyses show that high instabilities are linked to slopes with NE and SW orientations, curvature values between − 6 and − 0.7, and slope values from 16° to 30°. Bedrock lithology (Carboniferous sandstone and siltstone), presence of Quaternary soils and sediments, vegetation, and the topographical factors were used to develop a landslide susceptibility model using the logistic regression method. Application of “zoom method” allows us to accurately detect small mass movements using a 5-m grid cell data even if geomorphological mapping is done at a 1:25,000 scale.     

Dust emission by off-road driving: Experiments on 17 arid soil types, Nevada, USA

Field experiments were conducted in Nellis Dunes Recreational Area (Clark County, Nevada, USA) to investigate emission of dust produced by off-road driving. Experiments were carried out with three types of vehicles: 4-wheelers (quads), dirt bikes (motorcycles) and dune buggies, on 17 soil types characteristic for a desert environment. Tests were done at various driving speeds, and emissions were measured for a large number of grain size fractions. This paper reports the results for two size fractions of emissions: PM10 (particles < 10 μm) and PM60 (particles < 60 μm). The latter was considered in this study to be sufficiently representative of the total suspendable fraction (TSP). Off-road driving was found to be a significant source of dust. However, the amounts varied greatly with the type of soil and the characteristics of the top layer. Models predicting emission of dust by off-road driving should thus consider a number of soil parameters and not just one key parameter. Vehicle type and driving speed are additional parameters that affect emission. In general, 4-wheelers produce more dust than dune buggies, and dune buggies, more than dirt bikes. Higher speeds also result in higher emissions. Dust emitted by off-road driving is less coarse than the parent sediment on the road surface. Off-road driving thus results in a progressive coarsening of the top layer. Exceptions to this are silty surfaces with no, or almost no, vegetation. For such surfaces no substantial differences were observed between the grain size distribution of road dust and emitted dust. Typical emission values for off-road driving on dry desert soils are: for sandy areas, 30–40 g km^− 1 (PM10) and 150–250 g km^− 1 (TSP); for silty areas, 100–200 g km^− 1 (PM10) and 600–2000 g km^− 1 (TSP); for drainages, 30–40 g km^− 1 (PM10) and 100–400 g km^− 1 (TSP); and for mixed terrain, 60–100 g km^− 1 (PM10) and 300–800 g km^− 1 (TSP). These values are for the types of vehicles tested in this study and do not refer to cars or trucks, which produce significantly more dust.     

Quaternary landscape evolution and erosion rates for an intramontane Neogene basin (Guadix–Baza basin, SE Spain)

The landscape evolution in Neogene intramontane basins is a result of the interaction of climatic, lithologic, and tectonic factors. When sedimentation ceases and a basin enters an erosional stage, estimating erosion rates across the entire basin can offer a good view of landscape evolution. In this work, the erosion rates in the Guadix–Baza basin have been calculated based on a volumetric estimate of sediment loss by river erosion since the Late Pleistocene. To do so, the distribution of a glacis surface at ca. 43 kyr, characterised by a calcrete layer that caps the basin infilling, has been reconstructed. To support this age, new radiometric data of the glacis are presented. The volume of sediment loss by water erosion has been calculated for the entire basin by comparing the reconstructed geomorphic surface and the present-day topography. The resulting erosion rates vary between 4.28 and 6.57 m³ ha^− 1 yr^− 1, and are the consequence of the interaction of climatic, lithologic, topographic, and tectonic factors. Individual erosion rates for the Guadix and Baza sub-basins (11.80 m³ ha^− 1 yr^− 1 and 1.77 m³ ha^− 1 yr^− 1 respectively) suggest different stages of drainage pattern evolution in the two sub-basins. We attribute the lower values obtained in the Baza sub-basin to the down-throw of this sub-basin caused by very recent activity along the Baza fault.     

Environmental factors controlling spatial variation in sediment yield in a central Andean mountain area

A large spatial variability in sediment yield was observed from small streams in the Ecuadorian Andes. The objective of this study was to analyze the environmental factors controlling these variations in sediment yield in the Paute basin, Ecuador. Sediment yield data were calculated based on sediment volumes accumulated behind checkdams for 37 small catchments. Mean annual specific sediment yield (SSY) shows a large spatial variability and ranges between 26 and 15,100 Mg km^− 2 year^− 1. Mean vegetation cover (C, fraction) in the catchment, i.e. the plant cover at or near the surface, exerts a first order control on sediment yield. The fractional vegetation cover alone explains 57% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). The negative exponential relation (SSY = a × e^{−b C}) which was found between vegetation cover and sediment yield at the catchment scale (10³–10⁹ m²), is very similar to the equations derived from splash, interrill and rill erosion experiments at the plot scale (1–10³ m²). This affirms the general character of an exponential decrease of sediment yield with increasing vegetation cover at a wide range of spatial scales, provided the distribution of cover can be considered to be essentially random. Lithology also significantly affects the sediment yield, and explains an additional 23% of the observed variance in ln(SSY). Based on these two catchment parameters, a multiple regression model was built. This empirical regression model already explains more than 75% of the total variance in the mean annual sediment yield. These results highlight the large potential of revegetation programs for controlling sediment yield. They show that a slight increase in the overall fractional vegetation cover of degraded land is likely to have a large effect on sediment production and delivery. Moreover, they point to the importance of detailed surface vegetation data for predicting and modeling sediment production rates.     

The geomorphic function and characteristics of large woody debris in low gradient rivers, coastal Maine, USA

The role, function, and importance of large woody debris (LWD) in rivers depend strongly on environmental context and land use history. The coastal watersheds of central and northern Maine, northeastern U.S., are characterized by low gradients, moderate topography, and minimal influence of mass wasting processes, along with a history of intensive commercial timber harvest. In spite of the ecological importance of these rivers, which contain the last wild populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the U.S., we know little about LWD distribution, dynamics, and function in these systems. We conducted a cross-basin analysis in seven coastal Maine watersheds, documenting the size, frequency, volume, position, and orientation of LWD, as well as the association between LWD, pool formation, and sediment storage. In conjunction with these LWD surveys, we conducted extensive riparian vegetation surveys. We observed very low LWD frequencies and volumes across the 60 km of rivers surveyed. Frequency of LWD ≥ 20 cm diameter ranged from 15–50 pieces km^− 1 and wood volumes were commonly < 10–20 m³ km^− 1. Moreover, most of this wood was located in the immediate low-flow channel zone, was oriented parallel to flow, and failed to span the stream channel. As a result, pool formation associated with LWD is generally lacking and < 20% of the wood was associated with sediment storage. Low LWD volumes are consistent with the relatively young riparian stands we observed, with the large majority of trees < 20 cm DBH. These results strongly reflect the legacy of intensive timber harvest and land clearing and suggest that the frequency and distribution of LWD may be considerably less than presettlement and/or future desired conditions.     

Large rockslides in the Southern Central Andes of Chile (32–34.5°S): Tectonic control and significance for Quaternary landscape evolution

The distribution and age of large (> 0.1 km²) Pliocene to recent rockslides in the Chilean Cordillera Principal (32–34.5 S), the Southern Central Andes, has been analyzed to determine the rockslide triggering mechanisms and impact on regional landscape evolution. Most of the rockslides appear in the western Cordillera Principal and cluster along major geological structures. Variographic analyses show spatial correlation between rockslides, geological structures and shallow seismicity. A relative chronosequence was calibrated with existing ¹⁴C and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates and new cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages for selected rockslides. Rockslide-induced sediment yield was estimated with empirical relations for rockslide area distributions. Throughout the Quaternary, rockslides have delivered sediment to streams at rates equivalent to denudation rates of 0.10 ±0.06 mm a^− 1, while estimates using short term (20 a) seismicity records are 0.3_− 0.2^+ 0.6 mm a^− 1. The estimates of sediment transfer and the spatial distribution of rockslides reflect a landscape in which tectonic and geological controls on denudation are more significant than climate.     

A Neogene giant landslide in Tarapacá, northern Chile: A signal of instability of the westernmost Altiplano and palaeoseismicity effects

Giant landslides, which usually have volumes up to several tens of km³, tend to be related to mountainous reliefs such as fault scarps or thrust fronts. The western flank of the Precordillera in southern Peru and northern Chile is characterized by the presence of such mega-landslides. A good example is the Latagualla Landslide (19°15′S), composed of ~ 5.4 km³ of Miocene ignimbritic rock blocks located next to the Moquella Flexure, a structure resulting from the propagation of a west-vergent thrust blind fault that borders the Precordillera of the Central Depression. The landslide mass is very well preserved, allowing reconstitution of its movement and evolution in three main stages. The geomorphology of the landslide indicates that it preceded the incision of the present-day valleys during the late Miocene. Given the local geomorphological conditions 8–9 Ma ago (morphology, slopes and probably a high water table), large-magnitude earthquakes could have provided destabilization forces enough to cause the landslide. On the other hand, present seismic forces would not be sufficient to trigger such landslides; therefore the hazard related to them in the region is low.     

Deriving hillslope sediment budgets in wildfire-affected forests using fallout radionuclide tracers

Information on post-fire sediment and nutrient redistribution is required to underpin post-fire catchment management decisions. Fallout radionuclide budgets (²¹⁰Pb_xs, ¹³⁷Cs and ⁷Be) were derived to quantify soil redistribution and sediment yield in forested terrain following a moderately severe wildfire in a small (89 ha) water supply catchment in SE Australia. Application of these techniques in burnt terrain requires careful consideration of the partitioning of radionuclides between organic and mineral soil components. Beryllium-7 and ²¹⁰Pb_xs were shown to be closely associated with ash, litter and soil organic matter whereas ¹³⁷Cs was more closely associated with subsurface coarse mineral soil. Comparison of the three tracer budgets indicated that the dominant sediment source areas were ridgetops and steep valley sideslopes, from which burnt surface material was conveyed to the stream network via pre-existing gullies. Erosion was predominantly driven by sheetwash, enhanced by soil water repellency, and modified by bioturbation which both supplies subsurface sediment and provides sinks for erosive overland flow. Footslope and riparian zones were not important sediment source areas. The estimated event-based (wildfire and subsequent rainfall) sediment yield is 58 ± 25 t km^− 2, based on fallout ⁷Be measurements. The upper estimate of total particulate phosphorus yield (0.70 kg ha^− 1) is more than 10 times that at equivalent unburnt sites. This illustrates that, soon after fire, burnt eucalypt forest can produce nutrient loads similar to those of agricultural catchments. The tracer budgets indicate that wildfire is an important control on sediment and phosphorus inputs to the stream network over the decadal timeframe and the pulsed nature of this release is an important concern for water quality management.     

Kinematics of a landslide derived from archival photogrammetry and GPS data

The evolution of the Patigno landslide, a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation in the Northern Apennine range (Italy), was investigated using archival photogrammetry, and GPS observations from a permanent station located inside the landslide. Historical aerial photographs of the area taken in 1975 (scale 1:13,000), 1987 (1:13,000) and 2004 (1:30,000) were co-registered into the same reference frame using an unconventional method based on the detection of homologous points in multi-temporal models. Three DTMs were produced using a Digital Photogrammetric Workstation and compared. The displacement vectors of 293 points in the landslide were determined. The average movement velocity of the GPS station since 2004 (about 3.5 cm yr^− 1) agrees with the mean displacement rate obtained from photogrammetry. Furthermore, the estimated velocity varies seasonally between 3 and 6 cm yr^− 1. This variability correlated with rainfall suggests that the creep of the landslide is influenced by hydrological factors.     

The origin of shallow landslides in Moravia (Czech Republic) in the spring of 2006

At the end of March 2006, the Czech Republic (CZ) witnessed a fast thawing of an unusually thick snow cover in conjunction with massive rainfall. Most watercourses suffered floods, and more than 90 shallow landslides occurred in the Moravian region of Eastern CZ, primarily in non-forested areas. This region, geologically part of the Outer Western Carpathians, is prone to landslides because the bedrock is highly erodible Mesozoic and Tertiary flysch.The available meteorological data (depth of snow, water equivalent of the snow, cumulative rainfall, air and soil temperatures) from five local weather stations were used to construct indices quantitatively describing the snow thaw. Among these, the Total Cumulative Precipitation (TCP) combines the amount of water from both thawing snow and rainfall. This concurrence of rain and runoff from snow melt was the decisive factor in triggering the landslides in the spring.The TCP index was applied to data of snow thaw periods for the last 20 years, when no landslides were recorded. This was to establish the safe threshold of TCP without landslides. The calculated safe threshold value for the region is ca. 100 mm of water delivered to the soil during the spring thaw (corresponding to ca. 11 mm day^− 1). In 2006, 10% of the landslides occurred under or at 100 mm of TCP. The upper value of 155 mm covered all of the landslides.     

Simulation of soil erosion and deposition in a changing land use: A modelling approach to implement the support practice factor

Using the USPED (Unit Stream Power Erosion Deposition) model, three land use scenarios were analysed for an Italian small catchment (15 km²) of high landscape value. The upper Orme stream catchment, located in the Chianti area, 30 km south of Florence, has a long historical agriculture record. Information on land use and soil conservation practices date back to 1821, hence offering an opportunity to model impacts of land use change on erosion and deposition. For this study, a procedure that takes into account soil conservation practices and potential sediment storage is proposed. The approach was to calculate and model the flow accumulation considering rural and logging roads, location of urban areas, drainage ditches, streams, gullies and permanent sediment sinks. This calculation attempts to assess the spatial variability, especially the impact of support practices (P factor). Weather data from 1980–2003 were taken into account to calculate the R factor. However, to consider the intense pluviometric conditions in terms of the erosivity factor, the 0.75th quantile was used, while the lowest erosivity was modelled using the 0.25th quantile. Results of the USPED model simulation show that in 1821 the mean annual net erosion for the watershed was 2.8 Mg ha^− 1 y^− 1; in 1954 it was 4.2 Mg ha^− 1 y^− 1; and in 2004 it was 5.3 Mg ha^− 1 y^− 1. Conservation practices can reduce erosion processes by ≥ 20 Mg ha^− 1 y^− 1 when the 1821 practices are introduced in the present management. On the other hand, if the support practices are not considered in the model, soil erosion risk is overestimated. Field observation for the present-day simulation confirmed that erosion and associated sediment deposition predicted by the model depend, as expected, on geomorphology and land use. The model shows limitations that are mainly due to the input data. A high resolution DEM is essential for the delineation of reliable topographic potential to predict erosion and deposition especially in vineyards.     

Spatial patterns of old, deep-seated landslides: A case-study in the northern Ethiopian highlands

During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km² study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.