浅谈内蒙古自治区矿山地质环境问题及发展趋势

内蒙古自治区主要矿山地质环境问题有矿山地质灾害、占用破坏土地资源及地貌景观、地下水系统的改变与破坏和矿山废水废渣对环境的影响等。分析和认清内蒙古自治区矿山地质环境问题现状及趋势对恢复和保护自然环境、生活环境,维护人类社会持续健康发展具有深远意义。     

独龙江流域的地震地质环境

本文利用青藏高原东南边缘及其与印缅山弧交接地带的地震活动性、新构造运动以及地震构造特征等研究成果和实地考察资料，借以分析并初步阐明独龙江流域的地质地质环境，为该区的自然资源开发利用和地震地质灾害预测提供一些实际资料。     

基于空间分布特征的川九公路沿线地质灾害诱发条件分析

8·8九寨沟地震诱发大量地质灾害,对川九公路造成严重危害。该文基于地质灾害遥感解译数据,从地质灾害的空间分布特征出发,分析强震驱动下公路沿线地质灾害暴发的诱因,结果表明:1)断层间相互作用为公路沿线灾害形成提供动力条件,其中,控震构造断层F1主控公路沿线地质灾害分布,距其越近,灾害数量越多、规模越大;2)受工程地质条件、地形地貌等因素共同影响,公路两侧坡体越陡,地形高差越大,坡体为坚硬岩类且SE坡向区域更易形成大规模地质灾害(群)。利用公路沿线灾害启动区位置进行分析,且剔除了环境背景特征影响,结果具有较高可信度,可为川九公路灾后重建提供技术参考。     

岩溶盆地红土风化剖面的元素地球化学研究

选取云南石林红土剖面作为研究对象,探讨在岩溶盆地这一独特地貌单元中主量、稀土元素的地球化学特征。研究表明：① 云南石林土壤中主量和稀土元素的组成具有较好的一致性;② 通过对化学蚀变指数（CIA）与Na/K比值关系图以及A-CN-K（Al₂O₃-CaO*+Na₂O-K₂O）三角图分析发现：石林地区2个剖面均经历了温暖湿润环境下的强烈化学风化作用;石林地区土壤中稀土元素含量较高,其稀土元素球粒陨石标准化分布模式表现出高度相似性,且继承了基岩的特征,两者均表现为Eu处负异常,但剖面CK在Ce处表现为负异常,而剖面KP在Ce处无明显变化;③ 2个剖面元素组成及含量变化基本保持一致,表明此地土壤受外来物质影响程度较小,2个剖面的元素地球化学特征与基岩存在一定相似性。     

高速城镇化背景下山地城镇空间拓展问题的分析——以云南临沧为例

在高速城镇化背景下,临沧市的山地城镇在空间扩展中遇到了诸如城镇周边耕地被大量侵蚀、新城空置、城镇地质灾害隐患加大、城镇外围生态景观破坏,城镇地域特色丧失等一系列问题。这些问题主要是由于以下几个方面的原因造成的：（1）城镇建设中总是优先选择建设成本低廉的农田导致对耕地的侵蚀;（2）落后的工业化进程制约城镇化的持续发展导致新城空置、经济活力不足;（3）城镇空间采用蔓延式的拓展模式导致城镇地质灾害隐患加大和城镇外围生态景观破坏;（4）缺乏对城市特色的提炼导致山地城镇地域特色丧失。     

云南雨季开始期的特征以及与南海季风和印度季风开始期的可能关系

应用EOF、Morlet小波分析方法对云南雨季开始期的时空特征及多尺度周期变化特征进行分析,使用相关分析初步分析印度季风和南海季风开始期与其关系.结果表明：（1）云南雨季开始期的EOF第一模态表明全省雨季开始期一致偏早（晚）,EOF第二模态表明滇中及以东、滇东北、滇东南、滇西南部分地区与滇西、滇西北、滇南大部分地区雨季开始期反相变化的空间分布特征.（2）云南雨季开始期存在着明显的周期性波动,连续小波变换分析表明云南雨季开始期存在2～4年和5～7年的振荡周期.（3）南海季风开始期与云南雨季开始期相关不好,印度季风开始期与云南雨季开始期存在很好的相关性.     

“地质灾害”一节教学设计

在高中地理课本中，有关地质灾害的内容并不多，然而事实上，云南作为一个地质灾害多发的省份，学生渴望详尽地了解地质灾害的相关知识，并发展相应的技能和能力，以便将来更好地面对可能突发的灾难。对昆明的学生而言，地震和泥石流的知识，不仅要了解，更要会应用，要能利用头脑中的图式，进行“影响昆明的地质灾害”的研究性学习，从而让学生对地质灾害有一个完整、系统的认识。     

广州市白云区金沙洲地区地质灾害风险区划

广州市白云区金沙洲一带因受武广高铁隧道等一大批重点工程项目施工中大量抽排地下水的影响,诱发了多次较为严重的地质灾害。文章在多年实地调查的基础上,系统分析其地质灾害致灾因子,建立了地质灾害易发程度分区的评价指标体系,采用信息量法,按照地质灾害易发程度对各评价单元划分等级,将金沙洲地区划分为4个区：高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区。其中,武广高铁隧道通过的中南部地区属于地质灾害高易发区,该区隐伏岩溶发育,地质环境脆弱,不适宜大规模开发建设;浔峰断裂（F3）、沙贝断裂（F4）及保利西子湾断裂（F5）3条断裂通过的东部地区为地质灾害中易发区,该区发育有不良岩土体,区内主要发生地面沉降地质灾害;东南部大塱山组和中部测水组非可溶岩地层区为地质灾害低易发区,该区以埋藏型可溶岩分布为主,总体发生地质灾害的概率较小;西部丘陵地带为地质灾害不易发区,为非可溶岩区,不具备孕育地质灾害的形成环境。     

浅析黄冈大别山世界地质公园地质灾害形成条件及防护对策

2018年4月17日,黄冈大别山正式被联合国教科文组织批准为世界地质公园,这标志着黄冈市向世界亮出的首张"世界级"名片,意义重大。在复杂的地质背景条件下,受自然因素与人为工程活动因素影响,园内地质灾害频发。地质灾害破坏了地质遗迹景观与自然生态环境,制约了公园的可持续性发展。本文对黄冈大别山世界地质公园地质灾害现状进行了论述,并对区内地质灾害形成条件进行了分析,结果表明:区内地质灾害类型多样,以崩塌最为发育,灾害规模以小型为主,沿着断裂构造带密集发育;影响地质灾害发育因素有地质构造、地层岩性、地形地貌、气象水文、人类工程活动等,其中地质构造运动是孕灾环境形成的根源与基础,地层岩性为地质灾害形成提供物源,地形地貌为地质灾害发生提供场所,大气降雨则是诱发地质灾害的"导火索",人类活动,进一步加剧了地质灾害的形成与发展。在此基础上,对区内地质灾害发展趋势进行了预测。最后,针对公园实际,提出了切实可行的防治措施,对今后园区地质灾害防治工作具有一定参考价值。     

广东西部地区地质灾害分布规律探讨

在野外实地调查和资料收集的基础上,主要研究了广东省西部地区地质灾害在时空分布方面的规律。在对广东省西部地区灾害的发育分布特征、形成灾害的各方面影响因素等进行综合性分析,根据本次调查结果,某地区发生的灾害主要突发性地质灾害,主要有崩塌、滑坡、地面沉降和泥石流等四种类型。由此提出在完善群测群防体系条件下,以适合该地区的工程治理、搬迁避让、生物防治及综合治理等防治措施,保护某地区土地资源、生态环境,实现该地区的经济可持续发展,为地方规划部署地质灾害防治工作提供决策依据。     

云南省地震与太阳活动的统计关系研究

地震与太阳活动的关系是研究活动性和地震预测中有意义的课题。作者选取云南省及周边地区1965～2006年2级以上地震为样本,使用时间序列分析方法和相关分析方法对地震与太阳黑子、耀斑的相关性进行了研究,得到中小地震为主的样本与太阳活动不相关、大地震与太阳活动存在弱相关性的结论。作者的结论与以往研究者的结论不同,原因在于以往的研究者使用大震强震为样本,样本数少,得到的结论存在不可避免的偶然性。因此在一个地方具备发生大地震的内在条件时,关注太阳活动也是十分必要的。     

Source parameters of large historical (1918–1962) earthquakes, South Island, New Zealand

We present the results of body waveform modelling studies for 17 earthquakes of M _w ≥5.7 occurring in the South Island, New Zealand region between 1918 and 1962, including the 1929 M _s = 7.8 Buller earthquake, the largest earthquake to have occurred in the South Island this century. These studies confirm the concept of slip partitioning in the northern South Island between strike-slip faulting in southwestern Marlborough and reverse and strike-slip faulting in the Buller region, but indicate that the zone of reverse faulting is quite localized. In the central South Island, all historical earthquakes appear to be associated with strike-slip faulting, although recent (post-1991) reverse faulting events suggest that slip partitioning also occurs within this region. The difference between historical and recent seismicity in the central South Island may also reflect stress readjustment occurring in response to the 1717 ad rupture along the Alpine fault. Within the Fiordland region (southwestern South Island) none of the historical earthquakes appears to have occurred along the Australian/Pacific plate interface, but rather they are associated with complex deformation of the subducting plate as well as with deformation of the upper (Pacific) plate. Two earthquakes in the Puysegur Bank region south of the South Island suggest that strike-slip deformation east of the Puysegur Trench is playing a major role in the tectonics of the region.     

A stochastic modelling of earthquake frequencies

Summary. The frequency of earthquake occurrence in a given region can be formulated as

where n ( t ) is the number of earthquakes per unit time, and r, k and α are constants. Empirically determined values of α range from 0.67 to 1.0. This is a generalization of the modified Omori formula for aftershocks, the latter being an approximation of the former for n > k. This formula adequately describes the initial increasing and later decreasing activity of earthquakes during the Matsushiro and Wakayama swarms as well as aftershocks of large earthquakes.
When a random external force is added to this system as a driving mechanism, the equation above becomes

where v = l n ( n/k ) and R ( t ) is the random Gaussian noise. Repetitive seismic patterns with bursts, which are commonly observed in real earthquake sequences, are predicted from this formulation under stationary conditions. These formulations appear to be quite promising in helping to understand macroscopic features of the microearthquake activity.     

Non-Poissonian earthquake occurrence in coupled stress release models and its effect on seismic hazard

Most seismic hazard estimations are based on the assumption of a Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, even though both observations and models indicate a departure of real seismic sequences from this simplistic assumption. Instrumental earthquake catalogues show earthquake clustering on regional scales while the elastic rebound theory predicts a periodic recurrence of characteristic earthquakes on longer timescales for individual events. Recent implementations of time-dependent hazard calculations in California and Japan are based on quasi-periodic recurrences of fault ruptures according to renewal models such as the Brownian Passage Time model. However, these renewal models neglect earthquake interactions and the dependence on the stressing history which might destroy any regularity of earthquake recurrences in reality. To explore this, we investigate the (coupled) stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound hypothesis. In particular, we are interested in the time-variability of the occurrence of large earthquakes and its sensitivity to the occurrence of Gutenberg–Richter type earthquake activity and fault interactions. Our results show that in general large earthquakes occur quasi-periodically in the model: the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is strongly decreased shortly after a strong event and becomes constant on longer timescales. Although possible stress-interaction between adjacent fault zones does not affect the recurrence time distributions in each zone significantly, it leads to a temporal clustering of events on larger regional scales. The non-random characteristics, especially the quasi-periodic behaviour of large earthquakes, are even more pronounced if stress changes due to small earthquakes are less important. The recurrence-time distribution for the largest events is characterized by a coefficient of variation from 0.6 to 0.84 depending on the relative importance of small earthquakes.     

Upper-crustal structure of the Benevento area (southern Italy): fault heterogeneities and potential for large earthquakes

The Benevento region is part of the southern Apennines seismogenic belt, which experienced large destructive seismic events both in historical and in recent times. The study area lies at the northern end of the Irpinia fault, which ruptured in 1980 with a M_s = 6.9 normal faulting event, which caused about 3000 casualties. The aims of this paper are to image lateral heterogeneities in the upper crust of the Benevento region, and to try to identify the fault segments that are expected to generate such large earthquakes. This work is motivated by the recognition that lithological heterogeneities along major fault zones, inferred from velocity anomalies, reflect the presence of fault patches that behave differently during large rupture episodes. In this paper, we define the crustal structure of the Benevento region by using the background seismicity recorded during 1991 and 1992 by a local seismic array. These data offer a unique opportunity to investigate the presence of structural discontinuities of a major seismogenic zone before the occurrence of the next large earthquake. The main result that we obtained is the delineation of two NW-trending high-velocity zones (HVZs) in the upper crust beneath the Matese limestone massif. These high velocities are interpreted as high-strength regions that extend for 30-40 km down to at least 12 km depth. The correspondence of these HVZs with the maximum intensity regions of historical earthquakes (1688 AD, 1805 AD) suggests that these anomalies delineate the extent of two fault segments of the southern Apenninic belt capable of generating M = 6.5⁻⁷ earthquakes. The lateral offset observed between the two segments from tomographic results and isoseismal areas is possibly related to transverse right-lateral faults.     

地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例

城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。     

Comparison of frequency of occurrence of earthquakes with slip rates from long-term seismicity data: the cases of Gulf of Corinth, Sea of Marmara and Dead Sea Fault Zone

In this article, through the comparison of knowledge relating to historical earthquakes with the understanding of present-day earthquake mechanics and overall GPS slip rates in the eastern Mediterranean region, it has been possible to obtain an idea of how frequently large earthquakes may be expected in some parts of the region. It has also been possible to make an assessment from these early events of slip rates over a long period of time for the Gulf of Corinth in Greece, the Marmara Sea in Turkey and the Dead Sea Fault System, as well as deriving long-term magnitude–frequency relations for these same regions.
It has been demonstrated that slip rates calculated from historical data are in general comparable to those calculated from GPS measurements and field observations, while the size of historical earthquakes and their uncertainty can be quantified. This permits a more reliable estimation of the long-term hazard, the calculation of which is the concern of the engineering seismologist. It has also been shown that in most cases large earthquakes are less frequent when they are estimated from long-term data sets rather than from the instrumental period making the notion of recurrence time and of hazard assessment, questionable.
This study focuses on some of the few areas in the world for which long-term macroseism information exists and which facilitate this kind of analysis.     

中国区域发展资源环境基础支撑能力动态评价 --以西南区为例

随着中国工业化的快速发展，资源环境基础支撑能力已成为区域持续发展的“瓶颈”，作为我国经济欠发达的区域和长江经济带的重要生态屏障，西南区资源环境的基础支撑能力不仅决定着西部大开发的战略取向，而且还影响着东、中部地区自然环境和社会经济的可持续发展。文章针对以往资源环境基础单要素分析方法的不足，尝试提出多要素综合动态分析方法，对西南区资源环境的基础支撑能力进行评价。从而为区域持续发展的资源基础研究提供一种理论思路和方法。     

Resolution and significance assessment of precursory changes in mean earthquake magnitudes

The Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 7.0), which occurred in October 1989 in central California, was preceded by a period during which the mean magnitude of background seismicity in a small region near the eventual epicentre was abnormally low. This period may have begun as early as 1979, and it continued until mid-1988, after which the mean magnitude increased to a higher than normal value until the main earthquake. These changes were observed in the seismicity of an area 40  km in radius, centred on the Loma Prieta epicentre, and are consistent with the predictions of fracture mechanics studies. The 1988 change correlates with a reported change in long-term strain.
  A procedure has been developed for resolving such temporal changes in seismicity using CUSUM statistics. It demonstrates that the anomaly was highly significant, on the basis of analyses of two independent catalogues. There was also a significant anomaly before the 1994 Northridge earthquake.
  The hypothesis that large earthquakes are preceded by periods in which the mean magnitude of background activity is abnormally low, in the immediate vicinity of the eventual epicentre, is a tantalizing one. The analysis tool examined here may be useful for resolving such changes. Care needs to be taken, however, in routine surveillance of earthquake populations that contain large aftershock sequences.     

龙陵地区强震活动的深部背景

对研究区（23.9°N～25.1°N,97.8°E～99.0°E）内地壳和上地幔S波速度结构与强震的关系和强震活动的深部背景进行了探讨。活动断裂的运动是孕育和发生强震的重要诱因,而有利于高应变积聚的深部地质构造则是产生强震的关键条件。研究区内,以瑞丽—龙陵断裂为界,西北侧地壳和上地幔存在大范围低速区,不利于高应变的积聚,不容易孕育和发生强震;东南侧上地幔无明显低速层,地壳内有较小范围低速层,介质偏于刚性,易于积累高应变,孕育和发生强震的可能性较大。