自然植物被对气候变化响应的研究：综述

植被－气候关系的研究已经超越了植被地理学、植被生态学的研究范围，而成为全球变化研究的核内容之一，从而受到地理学家、生态学院等的广泛关注，并开展了大量的研究。本文概述了过去、现在和未来自然植被对气候变化响应研究的主要进展，阐述了自然植被响应气候变化，特别是未来全球气候变化的基本的可能结果。     

自然植被对气候变化响应的研究:综述

植被-气候关系的研究已经超越了植被地理学、植被生态学的研究范围，而成为全球变化研究的核心内容之一，从而受到地理学家、生态学家等的广泛关注，并开展了大量的研究。本文概述了过去、现在和未来自然植被对气候变化响应研究的主要进展，阐述了自然植被响应气候变化，特别是未来全球气候变化的基本的可能结果。     

中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力变化特征——基于过程模型和遥感模型的评估结果

净初级生产力（NPP）作为生态系统物质与能量循环的基础,是区域和全球尺度碳循环和碳收支研究的重要组成部分。研究区域和全球尺度的净初级生产力主要依靠模型手段实现,过程和遥感模型是目前广泛使用的两种模型形式。本文搜集并整理了基于过程模型和遥感模型对我国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的模拟结果,分析了中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的时间变化及对未来气候变化的响应特征,旨在对其进行综合评价。结果表明,中国陆地生态系统NPP平均为（2.828±0.827）PgC.a-1。1982-1998年的年际变化特征上,NPP平均每年增加0.027 PgC,年增长率为1.07%,总体上呈现在波动中逐年上升的趋势。不同植被类型的单位面积NPP总体表现为常绿阔叶林显著高于其他植被类型,但不同研究结果间变化范围很大;落叶针叶林、常绿针叶林和落叶阔叶林相差较小;农作物低于阔叶林,但高于针叶林;草地和荒漠均位于低值区,但前者显著高于后者。不同植被类型的NPP总量总体表现为农作物和草地位居前两位,两者之和高达各植被类型NPP总量之和的58.34%;除灌丛和常绿针叶林外,其余植被类型均不足总量的10%。在未来气候情景下,中国陆地生态系统NPP总体上可能表现为先增加后减小的趋势。     

过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年（1961-2010年）气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段（1986-2005年）平均气候状态作为“标准年气候”,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被“不适应”以及“不适应”的程度,最后根据过去50年的“不适应”次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示：在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。     

贵州高原不同地貌区和植被类型水分利用效率的时空分异特征

贵州高原具有少日照、多云雨和复杂下垫面的山地特殊气候和地形,准确探究该区域生态系统水分利用效率(WUE)的时空分异特征对进一步了解喀斯特地区碳水循环过程具有重要意义。本文气象站点数据用ANUSPLIN软件进行插值处理,与使用时间序列谐波分析法和质量控制文件重新构建高质量的MODIS-NDVI数据作为CASA模型的输入数据模拟植被NPP,再结合MOD16-ET数据估算WUE。综合利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和稳定性分析等统计方法,对贵州高原2000—2014年各地貌区、植被类型WUE的时空分异特征进行对比分析。研究表明:(1)研究区近15年来WUE均值和趋势的空间格局都呈西部高于东部的特点, WUE趋势呈显著增加态势(R~2=0.63,P0.001)。(2)从各地貌区来看,多年WUE均值排序为:断陷盆地岩溶峡谷峰丛洼地非喀斯特地貌岩溶高原岩溶槽谷,其中断陷盆地和岩溶峡谷呈显著(P0.05)增加趋势。(3)从不同植被类型来看, WUE大小呈混交林阔叶林耕地针叶林草地灌丛排序。针叶林和灌丛变异系数(CV)值较高,但前者对气候波动的抵挡能力更强,增加速率更快。草地CV值最低,变化速率最慢,不易受气候波动的影响。由于退耕还林等生态工程的实施效果显著,使耕地WUE的变化速率最快。     

植被地理分布对气候变化的适应性研究

开展气候变化对植被生产力及分布格局影响的研究较多,但分析植被地理分布与气候条件之间适应关系的研究还不多见.本研究以气候与植被关系为基础,采用植被对气候变化响应的时滞性,模拟不同植被类型对气候变化的动态响应过程,以当前气候条件和未来气候变化情景下植被地理分布实际发生和潜在的转变情况来定量表达植被地理分布与气候条件间的适应关系,评价植被地理分布对气候变化的适应性.结果表明,当前气候条件下(1961-1990年).中国植被对气候变化适应性总体较好,适应性较差的地方主要为森林-灌丛和草地-荒漠的交界处,植被的地理分布已经有所改变,约占5%;在华东地区森林-灌丛过渡带、内蒙古地区的灌丛-草地过渡带以及青藏高原南部的草地生态系统等对气候的适应性也较差,约占35%,这些地区的植被有退化的倾向,植被的地理分布有可能会发生变化.中国植被对未来气候变化(IPCC-SRES-A2情景2071-2100)的适应性总体较好,84%的植被变化表现为正向的变化,特别是在西北地区,未来气候条件将有所改善,这些地区的植被覆盖可能会有所提高.植被潜在的变化中约79%的植被可以适应未来的气候,但在青藏高原南部和内蒙古地区及西北的部分地区的草地生态系统对未来气候变化的适应性较差,有退化的倾向.     

气候变化对甘肃定西、安徽合肥小麦生产影响研究

由于大气中温室气体的不断增加, 全球气候发生了巨大变化。据最新气候模式模拟研究表 明未来全球气候将发生更为剧烈的变化, 这必将对很多部门产生显著的影响特别是对气候变化 十分敏感的农业。尤其对于中国这样的人口大国, 农业作为社会最基本也是最重要生产部门之 一, 气候变化将对中国的农业生产带来巨大的影响。小麦是中国的第二大作物, 其中冬小麦占全 国小麦总产量近90%, 因此评价气候变化对中国小麦生产影响是十分必要的。为了分析在未来气 候变化情景下中国小麦生产可能遇到的风险, 以15 年ECMWF 再分析实验数据(1979~1993)作为 边界条件驱动PRECIS 区域气候模式模拟产生作物模型所需要的气候资料并输入CERES-Wheat 模型, 验证CERES-Wheat 模型与区域气候模式PRECIS 结合的模拟能力。在以上验证工作的基 础上, 将区域气候模式PRECIS 的模拟结果与作物模型CERES-Wheat 相连接, 同时考虑到CO2 对小麦的直接施肥作用, 模拟了两个小麦站点(定西和合肥)在IPCC SRES A2 和B2 情景下雨养 和灌溉小麦的变化趋势。得到如下结论: 无论是在A2 情景还是B2 情景, 定西和合肥的小麦产量 都会有所增加, 但增加的幅度相差很大。A2 情景的增产效应一般要大于B2 情景的增产效应, 灌 溉小麦比雨养小麦更加受益于气候变化, 冬小麦(合肥) 产量的增长幅度要大于春小麦(定西) 增 长幅度。CO2 对小麦生长的肥效作用十分明显, 产量增幅很大。以上结果说明未来气候变化可能 会对我国的小麦生产带来益处, 但由于未来气候情景模拟的不确定性以及CO2 肥效作用通常是 在作物过程中的水肥条件完全满足的情况下才充分体现, 这都给研究结果带来了不确定性, 但本 项研究为评价未来气候变化对中国小麦生产影响提供了一种全面的评价方法。     

黄河源区气候—植被—水文协同演变及成因辨析

全球变化下黄河源区水文过程的演变影响流域生态系统的水源涵养功能,流域植被改变也影响水循环。本文基于气候、植被信息和VIP分布式生态水文模型,开展黄河源区水碳循环要素变化的集成模拟,分析了气候—植被—水文要素的协同演变机制。结果表明,2000年以来黄河源区气候呈暖湿化趋势;植被绿度明显提高,2010—2019年比2000—2009年平均增加了4.5%;生长季延长了至少10 d;植被生产力（GPP）显著上升,倾向率为4.57 gC m^-2 a^-1;植被恢复措施对GPP变化的贡献约为23%,气候变化和大气CO₂升高的施肥效应的贡献为77%。源区植被蒸散量（ET）呈增加趋势,倾向率为2.54 mm a^-1,水分利用效率（WUE）亦提高,平均相对上升率为5.1% a^-1。GPP、ET和WUE年总量及其变化率在海拔4200 m以下随高度上升而减小,之后变化趋缓。源区植被绿度和径流系数与当年和前一年降水呈显著正相关,反映降水蓄存于植物根层土壤的遗留效应。蒸散增强在一定程度上有利于源区地表—大气之间的水分再循环,帮助缓解生态恢复引起的产水能力下降,促进降水—植被—径流之间的良性互馈关系的形成。揭示水文对气候变化和植被恢复的响应和互馈机制,可为生态恢复措施对源区水源涵养功能的影响及效应的定量评估提供科学依据。     

气候变化对土地覆被变化的影响及其反馈模型

气候变化对土地覆被变化影响及其反馈模型研究主要内容包括:中国土地覆被季相变化的时空差异性;中国土地覆被特征参数NDVI年际变化与气候变化的关系;中国气候一植被判别模型;气候一土地覆被变化的神经网络建模及土地覆被的气候预测;土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)对气候影响的反馈机制和LUCC对中国土壤碳库的可能影响;土地覆被变化对气候影响的反馈数值实验.     

青藏高原草地生态系统碳收支研究进展

陆地生态系统碳收支仍然是当前全球气候变化研究的重要内容,青藏高原作为全球气候变化的敏感区,使青藏高原草地生态系统在区域碳收支平衡中占有主导地位,但研究方法等不同使得碳收支估算结果存在很大的不确定性。气候变暖在一定程度上提高了高寒草地生态系统的植被初级生产力和生物量,由此补偿了气候变暖导致的土壤有机碳分解释量,使青藏高原草地植被仍然发挥着碳汇的功能。而人类放牧活动对草地生态系统的影响较为复杂。因此,如何区分气候变化和人类活动对生态系统的影响机制,定量评价未来气候变化和人类活动影响下,青藏高原生态系统碳源/汇格局的可能变化,是一个非常重要的研究方向,也是一个极大的挑战。     

应用地统计学方法定量评价森林截留的地理变化规律

收集大量森林生态系统类型林冠截留功能研究资料,应用地统计学方法模拟了我国主要森林生态系统类型林冠截留的地理变化规律。结果表明:我国主要森林生态系统类型林冠截留与环境因素经度和纬度之间存在一定的地理变化规律,地统计学方法模拟的回归优度达88.15%,明显优于前人提出的三因素多元地理空间模型的模拟效果(回归优度为56.42%),能更真实反映我国主要森林生态系统类型林冠截留的地理变化规律,从而为我国主要森林生态系统林冠截留时空分布的模拟与分析提供可靠方法。这些主要森林生态系统包括:寒温带、温带山地落叶针叶林;寒温带、温带山地常绿针叶林;亚热带、热带东部山地常绿针叶林;亚热带、热带西部山地常绿针叶林;亚热带西部高山常绿针叶林;温带山地落叶与常绿针叶林;温带、亚热带山地落叶阔叶林;亚热带山地常绿阔叶林;亚热带山地常绿落叶阔叶混交林;亚热带竹林;南亚热带山地季风常绿阔叶林;热带半落叶季风雨林;热带山地雨林。     

上海自然植被的特征、分区与保护

上海地区有种子植物约134科510属919种。种子植物的分区类型共15°个,其中泛热带分布、北温带和东亚分布各占总属数的27.8%、21.6%和11.9%.地带性植被以常绿阔叶林和常绿落叶阔叶混交林为主,其中红楠群落和青冈栎群落能较好地反映中亚热带的植被和环境特征。非地带性植被以潮间带植被和水生植被为主。上海自然植被的类型和分布规律反映了本区地处中亚热带向北亚热带过渡地带的气候特征以及濒江临海的环境特点。同时其现状也表明了上海的自然植被处于不断增长的压力之下所发生的变化,因此亟需加以保护。上海的植被区划可分为隶属于北亚热带常绿落叶阔叶林地带的河口沙洲植被区,碟缘高地植被区和东北淀泖低地植被区,以及隶属于中亚热带常绿阔叶林地带的西南丘陵、低地植被区等。     

Vegetation greenness modeling in response to climate change for Northeast Thailand

In Northeast Thailand, the climate change has resulted in erratic rainfall and tem- perature patterns. The region has experienced both periods of drought and seasonal floods with the increasing severity. This study investigated the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） in major land cover types in the region. An assessment of the relationship between climate patterns and vegeta- tion conditions observed from NDVI was made. NDVI data were collected from year 2001 to 2009 using multi-temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product （MOD13Q1）. NDVI pro- files were developed to measure vegetation dynamics and variation according to land cover types. Meteorological information, i.e. rainfall and temperature, for a 30 year time span from 1980 to 2009 was analyzed for their patterns. Furthermore, the data taken from the period of 2001-2009, were digitally encoded into GIS database and the spatial patterns of monthly rainfall and temperature maps were generated based on kriging technique. The results showed a decreasing trend in NDVI values for both deciduous and evergreen forests. The highest productivity and biomass were observed in dry evergreen forests and the lowest in paddy fields. Temperature was found to be increasing slightly from 1980 to 2009 while no significant trends in rainfall amounts were observed. In dry evergreen forest, NDVI was not correlated with rainfall but was significant negatively correlated with temperature. These re- sults indicated that the overall productivity in dry evergreen forest was affected by increasing temperatures. A vegetation greenness model was developed from correlations between NDVI and meteorological data using linear regression. The model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and dynamics affected by temperature and rainfall.     

An Early Pliocene lake and its surrounding vegetation in Zhejiang,East China

The palynomorph composition of an Early Pliocene assemblage from Du’ao Lake, Zhejiang Province, East China, including sporomorphs and algae, was analyzed to reconstruct the vegetation and climate around the lake, as well as the environmental conditions in the lake. A subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest surrounding the lake is inferred from the pollen data. The composition of the green algae community indicates a clear, shallow (about 5–6 m deep), mesotrophic freshwater lake. The inferred pH was about 7.0–8.0 during the algae growing season. Applying the Coexistence Approach, the climatic conditions in Early Pliocene Du’ao were: (1) mean annual temperature ranged from 18.1 to 22.0°C, (2) difference in temperature between the coldest and warmest months ranged from 14.2 to 15.1°C, (3) mean temperature of the coldest month varied from 10.7 to 12.1°C, (4) mean temperature of the warmest month ranged from 23.5 to 25.4°C, (5) mean annual precipitation varied from about 994 to 1,255 mm, (6) minimum monthly precipitation ranged from about 9 to 11 mm, and (7) maximum monthly precipitation varied from approximately 219 to 245 mm. These values indicate that the Early Pliocene climate was subtropical.     

The dynamic response of forest vegetation to hydrothermal conditions in the Funiu Mountains of western Henan Province

This paper uses HJ-1 satellite multi-spectral and multi-temporal data to extract forest vegetation information in the Funiu Mountain region. The S-G filtering algorithm was employed to reconstruct the MODIS EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) time-series data for the period of 2000–2013, and these data were correlated with air temperature and precipitation data to explore the responses of forest vegetation to hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that: (1) the Funiu Mountain region has relatively high and increasing forest coverage with an average EVI of 0.48 over the study period, and the EVI first shows a decreasing trend with increased elevation below 200 m, then an increasing trend from 200–1700 m, and finally a decreasing trend above 1700 m. However, obvious differences could be identified in the responses of different forest vegetation types to climate change. Broad-leaf deciduous forest, being the dominant forest type in the region, had the most significant EVI increase. (2) Temperature in the region showed an increasing trend over the 14 years of the study with an anomaly increasing rate of 0.27°C/10a; a fluctuating yet increasing trend could be identified for the precipitation anomaly percentage. (3) Among all vegetation types, the evergreen broad-leaf forest has the closest EVI-temperature correlation, whereas the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest has the weakest. Almost all forest types showed a weak negative EVI-precipitation correlation, except the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest with a weak positive correlation. (4) There is a slight delay in forest vegetation responses to air temperature and precipitation, with half a month only for limited areas of the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest.     

The relationship between NDVI and precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau

The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre-lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi-cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area.     

Influence of canopy and topographic position on soil moisture response to rainfall in a hilly catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

Rainfall provides essential water resource for vegetation growth and acts as driving force for hydrologic process, bedrock weathering and nutrient cycle in the steep hilly catchment. But the effects of rainfall features, vegetation types, topography, and also their interactions on soil water movement and soil moisture dynamics are inadequately quantified. During the coupled wet and dry periods of the year 2018 to 2019, time-series soil moisture was monitored with 5-min interval resolution in a hilly catchment of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China. Three hillslopes covered with evergreen forest(EG), secondary deciduous forest mixed with shrubs(SDFS) and deforested pasture(DP) were selected, and two monitoring sites with five detected depths were established at upslope and downslope position, respectively. Several parameters expressing soil moisture response to rainfall event were evaluated, including wetting depth, cumulative rainfall amount and lag time before initial response, maximum increase of soil water storage, and transform ratio of rainwater to soil water. The results indicated that rainfall amount is the dominant rainfall variable controlling soil moisture response to rainfall event. No soil moisture response occurred when rainfall amounts was 8 mm, and all the deepest monitoring sensors detected soil moisture increase when total rainfall amounts was 30 mm. In the wet period, the cumulative rainfall amount to trigger surface soil moisture response in EG-up site was significantly higher than in other five sites. However, no significant difference in cumulative rainfall amount to trigger soil moisture response was observed among all study sites in dry period. Vegetation canopy interception reduced the transform ratio of rainwater to soil water, with a higher reduction in vegetation growth period than in other period. Also, interception of vegetation canopy resulted in a largeraccumulated rainfall amount and a longer lag time for initiating soil moisture response to rainfall. Generally, average cumulative rainfall amount for initiating soil moisture response during dry period of all sites(3.5–5.6 mm) were less than during wet period(5.7–19.7 mm). Forests captured more infiltration water compared with deforested pasture, showing the larger increments of both soil water storage for the whole soil profile and volumetric soil water content at 10 cm depth on two forest slopes. Topography dominated soil subsurface flow, proven by the evidences that less rainfall amount and less time was needed to trigger soil moisture response and also larger accumulated soil water storage increment in downslope site than in corresponding upslope site during heavy rainfall events.     

1982～2010年中国东北地区植被NPP时空格局及驱动因子分析

应用逐像元线性回归模型方法,整合应用MODIS和AVHRR NDVI数据集,构建1982~2010年覆盖东北地区的8 km空间分辨率的NDVI数据集,进而应用CASA模型估算得到东北地区29 a NPP数据集,模拟精度在75%以上。29 a平均的东北地区植被NPP总量为6.5×108tC/a。植被NPP的分布受植被类型、气候、地形因素的综合影响。NPP地域差异明显,山地区植被>平原区植被>高原区植被,变化最大的植被类型为草地植被。过去29 a间,植被NPP呈显著上升趋势(P<0.01)。气候变化和土地利用变化均是影响植被时空格局的重要因素。     

青藏高原植被覆盖变化与降水关系

The temporal and spatial changes of NDVI on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the relationship between NDVI and precipitation, were discussed in this paper, by using 8-km resolution multi-temporal NOAA AVHRR-NDVI data from 1982 to 1999. Monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall were used to analyze the seasonal changes, and annual maximum NDVI, annual effective precipitation and growing season precipitation (from April to August) were used to discuss the interannual changes. The dynamic change of NDVI and the corre- lation coefficients between NDVI and rainfall were computed for each pixel. The results are as follows: (1) The NDVI reached the peak in growing season (from July to September) on the Tibetan Plateau. In the northern and western parts of the plateau, the growing season was very short (about two or three months); but in the southern, vegetation grew almost all the year round. The correlation of monthly maximum NDVI and monthly rainfall varied in different areas. It was weak in the western, northern and southern parts, but strong in the central and eastern parts. (2) The spatial distribution of NDVI interannual dynamic change was different too. The increase areas were mainly distributed in southern Tibet montane shrub-steppe zone, western part of western Sichuan-eastern Tibet montane coniferous forest zone, western part of northern slopes of Kunlun montane desert zone and southeastern part of southern slopes of Himalaya montane evergreen broad-leaved forest zone; the decrease areas were mainly distributed in the Qaidam montane desert zone, the western and northern parts of eastern Qinghai-Qilian montane steppe zone, southern Qinghai high cold meadow steppe zone and Ngari montane desert-steppe and desert zone. The spatial distribution of correlation coeffi- cient between annual effective rainfall and annual maximum NDVI was similar to the growing season rainfall and annual maximum NDVI, and there was good relationship between NDVI and rainfall in the meadow and grassland with medium vegetation cover, and the effect of rainfall on vegetation was small in the forest and desert area.     

中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局变化及其与气候的关系研究

基于2001~2010年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,利用GIS空间分析技术和数理统计方法研究中国东南部植被NPP的时空格局、动态变化及与气候要素的关系。结果表明,中国东南部植被年均NPP总体上呈现从南到北、由东至西逐渐减少的分布,不同植被类型的NPP存在明显差异,以常绿阔叶林最高,落叶针叶林最低。2001~2010年间,植被NPP整体上略有减少。空间上植被NPP在南部地区明显减少,而在北部地区明显增加。植被NPP与降水和气温的相关性均表现出明显的地域差异。