融雪径流研究的理论与方法及其在干旱区的应用

融雪径流是干旱区河流的重要补给水源,融雪径流研究是干旱区水资源管理及分配的重要组成部分。基于国内外大量研究成果,本文从理论和方法入手对干旱区融雪径流研究现状进行分析和总结。理论研究是融雪径流发展及应用的基础,理论研究部分包括气候变化对融雪径流的影响、融雪径流水过程与物质迁移研究及融雪径流模拟研究;研究方法是融雪径流研究得以进行的数据和技术条件,研究方法部分包括基于站点数据和传统统计分析方法的融雪径流研究和站点数据与遥感数据相结合的分布式或半分布式融雪径流研究。最后,结合现有研究理论和研究方法,本文简要分析了干旱区融雪径流研究存在的主要的问题和展望融雪径流研究的趋势,包括融雪径流对气候变化的响应模式、积雪遥感监测和分布式融雪径流的模拟。     

新疆洪水预报预警中融雪径流模型应用进展

针对全球变化背景下极端升温、暴雪和暖湿化现象以及中国新疆地区融雪洪水灾害风险增大问题,概述了新疆不同类型洪水灾害特征,重点阐述了近年发生频率增加、致灾性强、灾害风险增大,但在新疆未引起重视的融雪洪水的研究进展,对比分析了不同类型融雪径流模型特点和研究现状。综合目前融雪径流模型已有进展和面临的挑战,提出新疆未来研究需考虑融雪径流模型的物理机制和融雪消融过程,以提高预报预警精度。回顾了融雪洪水在新疆的预报预警技术,指出构建高精度预报预警融雪洪水模型所面临的风吹雪、冻土表层雪和雪面雨等关键问题,并提出提升新疆洪水模拟、预报预警、应对突发洪水的综合能力的关键技术,为提升新疆融水洪水预报预警技术提供思路与建议。     

西藏那曲牧区雪灾损失的多因子灰色关联分析

通过那曲地区牧区雪灾的定性分析,应用灰色系统理论的关联分析方法,以1985年、1995年两次雪灾的平均损失率为参考数列;以气温、降水、稳定的积雪日数、草地退化比例、草场实际载畜量、草地超载比例,冬储草量作为比较数列,对那曲地区雪灾损失进行多因素关联分析。研究结果客观、定量地揭示了雪灾损失与各影响因素之间的相互关系,为那曲地区雪灾的抗灾防灾提供了科学的依据。     

融雪径流预报的理论问题——莫斯科苏联水文气象研究中心

本报告是有关季节性融雪径流长期预报的理论概念、各个因素的作用和实用的预报技术。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区地形定量因子的关联性分析

不同地形因子虽然在语义概念、计算方法等方面均有明显的差异,但各地形因子之间并不是绝对孤立的,它们之间相互关联、相互影响。这种关联的强弱与趋势,都从不同角度揭示着地形起伏变化与地貌发育的本质及内在规律,同时,还在一定程度上映射着地表形态的发育过程。文章以黄土高原丘陵沟壑区的15个样本地区为实验样区,以高分辨率、高精度的1:1万比例尺DEM为基础数据,应用BP神经网络模型,探讨地形定量因子与地面坡度之间的关联性特征,并将神经网络的方法与传统的多元回归方法进行比较。结果表明,相对于传统的多元回归方法,带隐含层的BP神经网络分析方法能更为有效地反映地形因子间隐含的关联特征。该研究方法为进行地貌多定量指标的的选择和多因子之间关联性的量化提供了一种新的方法。     

山东省海陆产业联动发展探讨

利用灰色关联分析方法,结合新的海洋经济核算标准,深入分析了山东省海陆产业关联程度。结果表明,山东省地区经济与陆地产业关联度高于海洋产业;海洋第一产业与陆地经济、陆地第一产业、陆地第三产业联系较弱,海洋第三产业与陆地第二产业联系较弱;山东省陆地经济与海洋科研教育管理服务业联系较弱。提出要以海岸带为纽带优化海陆产业联动发展布局,加强海陆产业内部的产业链对接,分阶段有重点地推进海陆产业联动发展。     

河南省区域城乡关联度评价分析

至今为止的城乡关联研究并没有很好地讨论区域经济发展水平的影响.在建立相关指标体系的基础上,利用主成分分析方法对2004年的河南省各地区城乡关联性进行了评价,得出河南省的城乡关联与不同地区的经济发展水平之间存在着一定的对应关系.城乡关联程度可以分成4种类型,强关联型、较强关联型、一般关联型和较弱关联型.不同经济发展水平下地区的城乡关联演进机制表现不同,并表现出一定的经济空间结构形态.基于分析的结论,对不同水平的地区提出不同的城乡关联发展建议.     

长江源区高寒湿地植物群落主要种群种间关系分析

在样方调查的基础上,采用X2检验、Pearson相关分析和Spearman秩相关分析方法,研究了长江源区高寒湿地植物群落26个主要物种,共325个种对间关联和相关关系.结果表明,X2检验有26个种对为正关联(p<0.05),22个种对为负关联(p<0.05),Pearson相关系数检验有37个种对为正相关(p<0.05...     

滇中城市群产业演进研究

滇中城市群作为云南省优先开发区,其产业结构近年来一直处于"二、三、一"的演进状态。在剖析滇中城市群经济发展及产业结构时空演进特征的基础上,运用以结构多元化系数和区位熵为主要指标体系的关联分析方法,对滇中城市群现代化进程中城市产业结构演进状态进行评价,并提出滇中城市群产业结构优化调整的对策建议,以期为滇中城市群经济的稳定发展和功能区划的演进提供有益借鉴。     

西北内陆张掖盆地地下水温度变化特征及主要影响因素识别

西北内陆干旱区地下水温度变化与其补给水源区气象和水文条件密切相关.以西北内陆张掖盆地为研究区,应用灰色关联分析方法,在张掖盆地潜水和承压水温度动态变化特征研究基础上,通过诊断其与上游山区降水、气温(对冰川雪融水影响)、日照和出山地表径流量,以及当地气温、降水、日照和地下水埋深之间关联状况研究,识别张掖盆地不同埋藏条件下...     

气候变化背景下冰川积雪融水对博斯腾湖水位变化的影响

依据近50年来博斯腾湖流域开都河大山口水文站径流数据和8个气象台站的气温、降水、积雪融水资料,并借助相邻流域天山1号冰川物质平衡资料,对气候变化背景下冰川和积雪融水对开都河径流量及博湖水位的贡献率进行了诊断分析。通过多元线性拟合法和偏相关分析法研究表明,1号冰川物质平衡与大山口水文站年径流量具有显著反相关关系,相关系数-0.28,但开都河年径流量变化并不能完全由冰川融水解释,降水和积雪融水的影响也非常重要,它们与大山口年径流的偏相关系数分别为0.57和0.40,超过99.9%和99%置信度水平。气温、降水、积雪融水拟合年径流与观测年径流的相关系数达0.63,超过99.9%置信度水平。各季节分析表明,春、秋季的降水和气温对径流具有显著影响,偏相关系数分别为0.52和0.37;夏季主要是冰川和积雪融水对径流的影响,其中积雪融水与径流的偏相关系数达0.51。夏季是一年中径流最大的季节,其变化主导着年径流量的变化,因此冰雪融水作为博斯腾湖的入湖水源,对博斯腾湖水位变化的影响不容忽视。     

西北地区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响(英文)

Water resources in the arid land of Northwest China mainly derive from snow and glacier melt water in mountainous areas. So the study on onset, cessation, length, tempera-ture and precipitation of snowmelt period is of great significance for allocating limited water resources reasonably and taking scientific water resources management measures. Using daily mean temperature and precipitation from 8 mountainous weather stations over the pe-riod 1960?2010 in the arid land of Northwest China, this paper analyzes climate change of snowmelt period and its spatial variations and explores the sensitivity of runoff to length, temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period. The results show that mean onset of snowmelt period has shifted 15.33 days earlier while mean ending date has moved 9.19 days later. Onset of snowmelt period in southern Tianshan Mountains moved 20.01 days earlier while that in northern Qilian Mountains moved only 10.16 days earlier. Mean precipitation and air temperature increased by 47.3 mm and 0.857℃ in the mountainous areas of Northwest China, respectively. The precipitation of snowmelt period increased the fastest, which is ob-served in southern Tianshan Mountains, up to 65 mm, and the precipitation and temperature in northern Kunlun Mountains increased the slowest, an increase of 25 mm and 0.617℃, respectively, while the temperature in northern Qilian Mountains increased the fastest, in-creasing by 1.05℃. The annual runoff is also sensitive to the variations of precipitation and temperature of snowmelt period, because variation of precipitation induces annual runoff change by 7.69% while change of snowmelt period temperature results in annual runoff change by 14.15%.     

东北地区融雪期径流及产沙特征分析

严重的水土流失已威胁到东北地区的土地资源,融雪径流及其造成的侵蚀作为该地区水土流失的重要组成部分,但相关研究较少。本文利用全区93个气象站降水资料,分析了东北地区降雪与积雪的基本特征。利用27个典型流域水文站径流泥沙资料,分析了融雪期内径流与产沙特征。结果表明:东北各地雪期长度为5~8个月,自南向北逐渐延长。年降雪量占年降水总量的比例多在7~25％,由此形成的融雪期径流深占全年径流深比例达13.3~24.9％,融雪期输沙模数占全年输沙模数比例达5.8~27.7％。融雪期流域输沙模数受地貌影响十分显著:丘陵漫岗区降雪量和径流深均低于山区,但输沙模数平均为山区的2.9倍。融雪输沙模数与流域面积有十分显著的幂函数递减关系。为揭示融雪侵蚀影响因素及其作用机理,今后应加强融雪期内流域侵蚀及产沙监测。     

Quantitatively estimate the components of natural runoff and identify the impacting factors in a snow-fed river basin of China

Snowmelt water is an essential runoff source of some alpine rivers in China. This study selected the Upper Burqin River(UBR), a typical snow-fed river, to quantitatively assess the runoff contributions of different components, as well as the causes of runoff variations under the background of cryosphere change and global warming. Based on the spatial-temporal distributions of snow and glaciers during a year, as well as the altitudinal variations of 0 ℃ isotherm, the high flow hydrographs in UBR was separated into two parts: seasonal snowmelt flood of lower altitudes(3,000 m) and glacier-snow melt flow in high altitudes(3,000-4,296 m). The daily baseflow hydrograph of UBR was separated by the digital filtering technique. It is concluded that the contributions of snowmelt flow, glacier melt flow, and baseflow(includes rainfall runoff component) to total annual flow volumes are 27.2%(±2.7%), 8.5%(±1.7%), and 64.3%(±3.0%), respectively. The speed of air temperature rise in spring may be the controlling factor for monthly snowmelt flow distributions in the snow-fed river. The volume of snowmelt was determined by spring precipitation(SP) and previous winter's precipitation(PWP). The PWP changes can explain 43.7% of snowmelt changes during 1981-2010 in UBR, while snowmelt change in 1957-1980 is more impacted by SP. The determining factor of snowmelt variation was changed from SP to PAP during the recent decades. Precipitation in current year, excluding previous year's rainfall and snowfall, can only explain 32%-70% of the variability in total runoff.     

天山北坡春季雪洪形成的气候因子分析

春季融雪洪水是天山北坡积雪水文特征之一，有时形成灾害，造成一定财产损失和人员伤亡。本文根据天山北坡乌鲁木齐附近不同海拔四个气象台站冷季降水、蒸发、积雪和气温等资料，分析了春季融雪洪水规模及其产流的时空分布状况。     

Hydrological effects of alpine permafrost in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains

Against the background of climate change, alpine permafrost active layers have shown a gradual thickening trend and the hydrothermal conditions have undergone significant changes in the Tianshan Mountains and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. At the ice-free cirque basins in the headwaters of the Urumqi River(hereafter referred to as the Ice-Free Cirque) in eastern Tianshan, China, the hydrological effects of the alpine permafrost active layers appear to have also exhibited significant changes recently. The increasing trend of local precipitation is clear in May and June. The onset of winter and spring snowmelt runoff clearly lags behind increases of air temperature, and the runoff peak appears near the beginning of the melting season, which results in the spring runoff increasing. In summer, runoff decreases strongly and the maximum runoff occurs earlier. In our analysis of meteorological and hydrologic data from 1959 to 2010, the runoff and precipitation changes are significantly correlated. In the initial stage of runoff, the runoff-producing process is mainly under the control of the soil water content and soil temperature in the 0–30 cm active layers. Spring precipitation and snowmelt water are mainly involved in the processes of infiltration and evaporation while some melt water infiltrates into the seasonal thawed layer and stays above the frozen layers. During the strong ablation period in summer, the runoff-generating process is mainly controlled by soil water content in the active layers deeper than 60 cm. In the active layer, precipitation and seasonal snowmelt water infiltrates, migrates, collects, and then forms runoff.     

A GIS-based modeling of snow accumulation and melt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an efficient method for snowmelt runoff forecast in large basins. We use short-range precipitation forecasts of mesoscale atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combining them with ground-based and satellite observations for modeling snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin (184,319 km²). The method is tested during three winter seasons (2012–2015). The MODIS-based vegetation map and leaf area index data are used to calculate the snowmelt intensity and snow evaporation in the studied basin. The GIS-based snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling provides a reliable and highly detailed spatial distribution for snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered areas (SCA). The modelling results are validated by comparing actual and estimated SWE and SCA data. The actual SCA results are derived from MODIS satellite data. The algorithm for assessing the SCA by MODIS data (ATBD-MOD 10) has been adapted to a forest zone. In general, the proposed method provides satisfactory results for maximum SWE calculations. The calculation accuracy is slightly degraded during snowmelt periods. The SCA data is simulated with a higher reliability than the SWE data. The differences between the simulated and actual SWE may be explained by the overestimation of the WRF-simulated total precipitation and the unrepresentativeness of the SWE measurements (snow survey).     

A Simplified Basin Model For Simulating Runoff: The Struma River GIS

A GIS-based distributed-parameter runoff simulation model for the Struma River Basin in southwestern Bulgaria calculates the monthly snow/rain proportion, direct or surface runoff, snow cover and snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff. Simulation during the Bulgarian hydrologic year from November to October was compared with observed runoff data. The model closely replicates mean monthly runoff from climate conditions during the years 1961 –1990 as well as specific years. The simplified GIS model simulates hydrologic processes under limited data availability.     

中国天山西部山区森林积雪消融过程观测分析——以巩乃斯河谷为例

通过对2013年春季中国科学院天山积雪与雪崩研究站区内阳坡无林地和阴坡不同开阔度森林内积雪深度、融雪速率以及常规气象的观测,分析了融雪期不同开阔度森林积雪的消融过程以及积雪表面能量平衡特征。结果表明:不同开阔度林冠下积雪深度具有相同的变化趋势,森林的林冠开阔度越大,林下积雪深度越大,林下积雪开始消融和完全消融的时间越晚,消融期也越长。森林积雪融雪开始和结束时间比阳坡无林地区晚20~30 d左右。融雪前期林冠开阔度越大,其林下融雪速率越小。融雪后期则森林开阔度越大,森林积雪的融雪速率越大。不同时期由于不同开阔度林冠下雪面能量收支以及雪层深度等物理特性的差异,从而使不同开阔度林冠下森林积雪融雪速率的相对大小,融雪速率最大值出现时间和日变化特征均不相同。晴天森林积雪的消融速率和日变化特征取决于净短波辐射和长波辐射变化特征。降水期间,其融雪速率的变化则主要受降水形式、降水量以及积雪深度等雪层特性的影响。     

A Simplified Basin Model For Simulating Runoff: The Struma River GIS

A GIS‐based distributed‐parameter runoff simulation model for the Struma River Basin in southwestern Bulgaria calculates the monthly snow/rain proportion, direct or surface runoff, snow cover and snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff. Simulation during the Bulgarian hydrologic year from November to October was compared with observed runoff data. The model closely replicates mean monthly runoff from climate conditions during the years 1961 –1990 as well as specific years. The simplified GIS model simulates hydrologic processes under limited data availability.