位移监测在滑坡时空运动研究中的应用

滑坡时空运动特征是滑坡地质体在内因和外因共同作用下，自一种状态向另一种状态转化的地质过程。滑坡位移监测是研究滑坡变形影响因素、动态规律及预测预报的主要途径，特别是滑坡深部位移监测，又为研究滑坡体的时空运动过程提供了重要信息。本文结合几个滑坡的深部位移监测实践，综合分析位移监测信息，研究滑坡体的时空运动特征及发展趋势，为滑坡时空运动系统研究及稳定性预测提供依据。     

滑坡深部位移曲线特征及稳定性判识

结合川藏公路二郎山隧道西引道榛子林复活深层滑坡、和平沟浅表层滑坡,深部位移监测,总结归纳了滑坡深部累积位移曲线“Ｖ”型、“Ｂ”型、“ｒ”型、“钟摆”型及“复合”型等几种,常见的特征类型的研究其意义,提出了依据滑坡深部位移监测资料判别滑坡稳定性的判识方法。     

基于机器学习的库岸滑坡变形短期预测

库岸边坡是一个复杂的地质综合体,库岸滑坡是威胁库区安全的地质隐患。多数传统滑坡预测模型为静态模型,未将滑坡变形特征与位移预测二者结合考虑,不能实际反映滑坡演化过程中的动态特性。本文基于溪洛渡库区58处涉水滑坡变形监测结果,归纳了库岸滑坡变形规律,采用机器学习方法实现了不同特征滑坡变形趋势的短期预测。研究结果显示：(1)研究区年平均地表形变速率处于-116.841～265mm·yr^-1,负值代表目标地物远离卫星方向位移,正值代表目标地物靠近卫星方向移动,其中存在缓慢变形滑坡13处,根据其累计位移曲线特征划分为：阶跃型、振荡型和持续增长型三类。(2)阶跃型滑坡滑面多为弧线型,其变形主要受库水位周期性变动影响;振荡型滑坡滑面多为折线型,其变形多受库水位和降雨共同作用;持续增长型滑坡滑面多为直线型,其变形主要受自身地质条件控制。(3)针对不同变形特征滑坡,采用长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络模型考虑多因素耦合和滑坡演化状态建立了滑坡变形动态预测模型,通过评价结果验证,该模型具有较高预测精度及良好的适用性。研究结果可以为溪洛渡库区滑坡系统研究与防治提供依据,为库区不同变形特征...     

滑坡变形监测系统深部与地表变形关系初探

滑坡的孕育、演变、发生是一个累进性变形破坏过程,开展滑坡变形的长期监测工作对滑坡稳定性评价、滑坡的预测预报及治理具有重要的工程意义。目前,滑坡变形监测多集中于坡体表部,很难系统获得反映滑坡稳定性的深部变形资料。本文以某溃屈型滑坡为例,初步分析了滑坡深表部变形的关系,为滑坡稳定性分析及变形破坏趋势预测提供了依据。     

一种基于EEMD-RFR的水库滑坡台阶状位移预测模型

水库滑坡的位移与周期性的库水波动和季节性降雨等诱发因素关系密切,由于库水位升降和降雨的作用,滑坡累计位移变形曲线呈明显的"台阶状",准确、及时地预测此类台阶状位移对提升该变形的认识具有重要意义。为深入了解诱发因素对水库滑坡位移的影响,预测其变形演化趋势,本研究提出了一种基于集合经验模态分解(EEMD)和随机森林回归模型(RFR)的滑坡位移预测模型。以水库滑坡——三峡库区白家包滑坡2007年4月至2018年12月的变形数据为例,进行"台阶状"位移的预测与模型检验。通过EEMD方法将累计位移分解为趋势项和周期项,其中趋势项采取最小二乘法的三次多项式拟合;周期项基于诱发因素组合和滑坡位移的响应变化,建立RFR模型进行预测。根据时间序列加法,将趋势项和周期项预测值叠加,获得总位移预测值。结果表明EEMD-RFR模型基本反映了滑坡累计位移的"台阶状"变化趋势,相关系数R达到0.997。通过与两种BP神经网络预测方法的对比,反映EEMD-RFR模型具有更好的预测效果。本研究为水库滑坡台阶状位移预测提供了一种有效的新方法,对了解水库滑坡长期变形具有一定意义。     

滑坡综合预报方法研究

滑坡综合预报是基于对滑坡发育状态的形成条件类比分析和滑坡位移历时分析的综合方法,从滑坡形成条件、变形状态、诱发因素的方式和影响程度的动态分析入手,结合滑坡加速变形破坏阶段的位移历时特征,建立滑坡预报模型,实现对滑坡的预报.与其他滑坡预报方法相比,滑坡综合预报方法的综合性强,能较好的确定滑坡的发育状态,分析滑坡发生剧烈滑动的可能性,能对不同发育阶段的滑坡做出准确判别.     

沟道偏转地形对滑坡碎屑流运动的影响研究

在沟谷地形中,滑坡碎屑流的运动常受到地形的影响,导致其运动方向发生改变,进而影响到滑坡运动速度和堆积特征。本文利用三维离散元素法,对四川都江堰三溪村高速远程滑坡进行模拟,研究滑坡体不同部位的块体失稳后,在沟道偏转地形主导下的滑坡碎屑流前缘的运动速度、各部位滑体的速度变化过程和堆积特征,并提出沟道偏转地形耗能模型分析了地形偏转造成的动能消耗。研究结果显示:滑坡前缘在地形偏转位置运动方向发生变化,导致运动速度突降;由于滑坡不同部位的滑块相对于地形偏转点具有不同的撞击角度,导致其撞击后产生不同的偏转角度,滑块的偏转角度越大,速度变化越大;由沟道偏转地形导致的滑坡运动速度减小反映了偏转地形对滑坡的动能产生的耗散,动能耗散率与cos~2θ(θ为偏转地形在水平面上的偏转角度)成反比;不同部位滑块的堆积长度随偏转角度的增大而减小。本研究分析了沟谷地形偏转对滑坡碎屑流运动速度作用机制及不同部位岩土体堆积范围的影响,可为该类地形条件下滑坡的运动机制研究和防灾减灾工作提供参考。     

滚石颗粒随机碰撞模型的理论分析

准确预测滑坡滚石随机碰撞后的力学特性对滚石灾害预测与防治工作具有重要的意义。为了探究影响滚石—壁面碰撞过程的随机因素,本文选取了碰撞过程中4个主要影响因素(入射速度、初始旋转角速度、入射角度以及碰撞角度),建立滚石随机碰撞理论模型,基于接触理论得到滚石碰撞过程中的基本方程,进而推导出滚石碰撞后速度公式,并且结合工程算例分析了入射速度、入射角以及初始旋转角速度对滚石的反弹速度、运动轨迹以及总动能的影响。结果显示:(1)滚石颗粒入射速度、角度以及旋转角速度对碰撞过程影响显著;(2)当滚石入射速度增加时,滚石碰后水平运动距离呈线性增大,垂向最大弹跳高度和碰后总动能成幂函数型增大;(3)当滚石入射角增大时,滚石碰后水平运动距离、垂向弹跳高度均呈减小趋势,前者幅度远大于后者,碰后总动能随着入射角的增大不断减小;(4)当滚石的初始旋转由顺时针变为逆时针增大时,滚石发生回弹现象,水平运动距离不断增大,垂向最大弹跳高度逐渐减小,碰后的总动能随着初始旋转的改变先减小后增大。该随机碰撞模型可为滚石的运动轨迹以及冲击能量的预测以及滚石灾害防治提供一定的理论依据。     

黑河金盆水库工程大坝右岸滑坡工程地质研究

为判断黑河金盆水库工程大坝右岸斜坡的性质(是变形体或滑坡),并有利于指导工程施工,在进行了详实的野外地质调查之后,作者分析认为该斜坡实际上为一古滑坡。在地表及平硐调查中所见滑坡周界清晰,变形破坏现象明显,为查明滑坡性质提供了客观证据。近两个月的位移监测资料亦进一步证实了上述结论的正确性。在此基础上,考虑到工程的重要性及施工时间的紧迫性,作者建议对底滑面以上的滑坡堆积体予以全部开挖清除。     

四川省溪口滑坡运动特征的离散元模拟

通过离散元分析拟合了溪口滑坡碎屑流的运动过程和主要特征,认为滑坡解体后是以碎屑流方式完成运移和停积过程。     

The use of surface monitoring data for the interpretation of landslide movement patterns

The Tessina landslide is a large, seasonally active slope failure located on the southern slopes of Mt. Teverone, in the Alpago valley of NE Italy, consisting of a complex system that has developed in Tertiary Flysch deposits. The landslide, which first became active in 1960, threatens two villages and is hence subject to detailed monitoring, with high quality data being collected using piezometers, inclinometers, extensometers, and through the use of a highly innovative, automated Electronic Distance Measurement (EDM) system, which surveys the location of a large number of reflector targets once every 6 h. These systems form the basis of a warning system that protects the villages, but they also provide a very valuable insight into the patterns of movement of the landslide.In this paper, analysis is presented of the movement of the landslide, concentrating on the EDM dataset, which provides a remarkable record of surface displacement patterns. It is proposed that four distinct movement patterns can be established, which correspond closely to independently defined morphological assessments of the landslide complex. Any given block of material transitions through the four phases of movement as it progresses down the landslide, with the style of movement being controlled primarily by the groundwater conditions. The analysis is augmented with modelling of the landslide, undertaken using the Itasca FLAC code. The modelling suggests that different landslide patterns are observed for different parts of the landslide, primarily as a result of variations in the groundwater conditions. The model suggests that when a movement event occurs, displacements occur initially at the toe of the landslide, then retrogress upslope.     

苏州绕城高速公路K19滑坡的工程地质特征及治理

以苏州绕城高速公路K19滑坡工程为例，对滑坡工程地质条件及特征、滑坡成因和形成机制进行了研究。结果表明，该滑坡受地形地貌和物质结构条件控制，受人为工程切坡和降雨诱发而形成的。最后，在确定影响滑坡稳定的主要控制因素和失稳机理的基础上，分析和评价了不同工况条件下的稳定性，提出了进行滑坡防治的工程对策。     

降雨型浅层滑坡的变形预测模型

滑坡是边坡被某些诱发因素激发失稳产生滑动的一种地质现象。它是地质灾害的主要类型,尤其以降雨滑坡数量最多,其中浅层滑坡分布最广。通过对降雨型浅层滑坡的变形进行分析,建立了基于功能原理的滑坡一维运动方程,并结合太沙基固结原理,研究滑坡运动过程中孔隙水压力的消散,揭示了滑坡从运动-停止的动力演化过程,构建了降雨型浅层滑坡的位移预测模型,并以都江堰塔子坪滑坡为例进行分析,通过mathmatic给出了滑坡运动的速率、位移与降雨量的量化关系式。     

广元市金洞乡Ⅱ号滑坡系统演化的非线性动力学反演分析

本文在研究广元市金洞乡Ⅱ号滑坡位移特征基础，认为该滑坡正处于开放的、复杂的非线性动力学系统中。在滑坡系统诸要素中，宝珠寺加水位的升降已成为系统演化的控制力量。坡体位移是系统演化的主要状态变量，但北部坡体、南部坡体与中部坡体之间的滑动变形具较强的独立性，单一的位移序列不能较好的反映滑坡的演化特征。因此，文中以两列独立的位序列为状态变量，结合控制变量建立了滑坡系统演化的非线性动力学模型，并从现有的变形监测滦资料进行滑坡系统的非线性力学反演和稳定学反演和稳定性评价。     

Urban landslide monitoring by combined use of multiple methodologies - a case study on Sv. Anton town,Slovakia

ABSTRACT

We employed integrated methods to assess the landslide movement in Sv. Anton town in the Western Carpathians Neogene Volcanic Field (Central Slovakia). The integrated diagnostics required study of the landslide kinematic activity by a combination of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) imaging from November 2013 to March 2015. A topographic model with 2-cm accuracy was constructed from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) photogrammetry. Continuous spatial datasets of movement and displacement field vectors were interpolated from the measured movements over the entire study period. Although deformation studies in Slovakia have a long-term tradition, complex interdisciplinary studies in urbanized areas are still lacking. This inspired our main objectives: to identify landslide kinematics and to reconstruct and define the rates of annual landslide movement obtained from geodetic measurement at the monitoring points. Our results demonstrate how landslide integrated diagnostics contribute to the detection of slope instability, with a maximum velocity of 60.82 mm/yr during the summer period. The precipitation effects are consistent with the Sv. Anton landslide displacement acceleration, and the following increases in total monthly precipitations are staggering compared to long-term monthly averages: July precipitation increased by 175.3%, August by 203.3%, and September by 198.1%.     

Characterization of landslide ground surface kinematics from terrestrial laser scanning and strain field computation

Assessment and mitigation of the risk induced by landslide activation need an appropriate phenomenon investigation, to obtain useful information about the failure processes. The first step is the complete kinematics characterization of the landslide ground surface, by evaluating the involved displacement and deformation patterns. A dense displacement field can be obtained from comparison of a series of multi-temporal observations performed by means of terrestrial laser scanning. Subsequently, the strain field can be computed from displacement vectors. In this paper, a modified least square technique is employed to compute the strain on the nodes of a regular grid (2D approach) or on the points of a digital terrain model (3D approach). Such a computation takes into account the displacements, their spatial distribution, as well as the measurement and modelling errors. A scale factor is introduced in order to emphasize the contributions of the experimental points on the basis of their distance from each computation point, and to recognize possible scale-depending behaviours. This method has been implemented in Matlab and applied on two landslides located in the northeastern Italian Alps (Lamosano and Perarolo di Cadore). The experiments show that different kinematics can be recognized, and the presence and influence of eventual discontinuities can be revealed.     

Geographies of Displacement: The Karenni and The Shan Across The Myanmar-Thailand Border

First, central to our analysis is the argument that human movement within and across borders fundamentally challenges the view of geopolitics based upon fixed territorial states, inter-state relations, national identities and citizenship; indeed the whole idea of "national geographic". Using the examples of the Karen and Shan peoples, we explore the processes and patterns of forced relocation, displacement and migration in the border regions of Myanmar and Thailand. Our main concern is with forced displacement as a result of political and ethnic conflict; specifically, how the Burmese military regime's desire for "national unity" within Myanmar's "national space" has influenced the militarily inspired displacements of hundreds of thousands of villagers and civilians within the border zones inhabited mostly by so-called "national minorities". We examine the particular problems of the so-called "internally displaced persons" within "national" boundaries compared with the "refugees" and "undocumented migrants" who make it across "international" space into Thailand. We illustrate the ways displaced people are represented by state agencies and the media as "threats" and "transgressors". We consider some of the "long term" aspects of the displacement problem along the Myanmar-Thai border and the vital contribution geographers can make to the study of displacement.     

西安翠华山古崩塌性滑坡体的沉积特征及其形成过程

西安翠华山风景地貌由古崩生滑坡体高速运行堆积而成,堆积体存在一些反映其运动和动力状况的沉积特征,将崩塌性滑坡体的平面堆积体划分出５个平面相带;中央相带、边缘相带、抛掷相带、气浪溅泥相带和特殊的残留相带,各带有不同的沉积特征,反映出调整运动中的崩塌式滑坡体动力过程和沉积过程在平面上分布的差异,通过研究该古积物的粒径变化、砾石组构和沉积结构、构造的差异,认为该崩塌式滑坡体在运动和沉积过程,存在前后部位