半湿润地区洪水预报模型研究及应用

针对半湿润地区建立了流域非线性产流、汇流模型以及流域洪水实时预报校正方法，并将研制的模型应用于陆浑水库流域洪水预报，取得了较为满意的预报效果。     

枯溪水电站入库洪水实时预报模型研究

从枯溪水库流域的实际出发,提出了区间流域洪不实时预报耦合模型以及实时跟踪模型的动态参数算法,并进行洪水实时预报,取得了令人较为满意的预报效果。     

水箱模型在大尺度流域实时洪水预报模型研制中的应用

水箱模型用于实时洪水作业预报的具体成果尚不多，本文研究的目的在于将水箱模型用于大尺度流域实时洪水预报。本文介绍了应用水箱模型建立实时洪水预报模型的方法。按照河段流量传播时间将寸滩以上干、支流划分为若干子河段，各子河段按照计算时段长分成若干单元河段，各单元河段区间降雨径流预报采用水箱模型．河道流量演算采用连续马斯京根法。河系预报模型精度在85％以上，能够满足实时洪水预报的要求。     

实时洪水抗差预报系统研究

把抗差估计理论引入实时洪水预报系统,提出适合于实时洪水预报系统的抗差特征函数,建立降雨误差的动态监控模式,研究实时修正模型参数的动态抗差估计,结合洪水预报模型,形成具有水文学特点、抗差性强的实时洪水抗差预报系统.将此系统和传统实时洪水预报系统运用于闽江七里街流域,比较当降雨和流量资料存在异常误差时两系统的预报效果.结果表明,实时洪水抗差预报系统能抵御异常值的影响,获得比较稳定且高精度的预报结果.     

基于单位线反演的产流误差修正

为提高实时洪水预报的精度,将单位线引入实时洪水预报修正中,建立一种向信息源头追溯的反馈修正模型。用最小二乘估计原理,通过推求产流量误差,用理想模型对误差修正模型进行了验证,并对不同范围的产流量误差修正效果进行对比。在浙江长潭流域对11场历史洪水进行修正验证,效果明显,对预报精度有一定的提高。该方法结构简单,且不增加参数,物理概念清晰,又不损失预见期,可以在实际流域洪水预报中推广应用。     

水库流域入库洪水预报误差分析

由于受水库枢纽工程的影响，使得反推计算的入库流量本身就存在较大的误差，从而增加了入库洪水预报模型研制的难度，影响了这时预报精度的考核。通过对全国诸多水电厂水库流域实时洪水预报的实践，对其入库洪水预报中存在的误差原因及解决方法进行了科学的分析和阐述，以指导实时预报。     

自回归总径流线性响应模型在洪水预报中的应用

采用自回归总径流线性响应(ATLR)模型建立淮河王家坝站洪水预报方案和海河流域南运河水系洪水预报调度方案.自回归TLR模型与TLR模型加误差自回归实时校正模型的结构相同,但前者计算简捷,预报精度也有所提高.     

分布式流域水文模型刍议

本文，对水文模型，流域水文模型，分布式流域水文模型的概念进行了阐述；对分布式流域水文模型的性质、特点进行了论述，并对其在实时洪水预报中应用前景进行了分析。     

双校正模式下的大清河流域陆气耦合洪水预报研究

基于数值大气模式WRF、三维变分数据同化WRF-3DVar、河北雨洪模型以及实时校正模型ARMA,在北方半湿润半干旱地区的大清河流域构建了陆气耦合洪水预报系统,并利用2012、2013年发生的3场降雨洪水,对系统的降雨洪水预报结果进行分析。结果表明:雷达反射率与GTS数据的同时同化,可有效改善数值大气模式对中小尺度流域的降雨预报效果,从而降低系统的洪水预报误差,ARMA模型的应用,能够进一步提升系统的洪水预报精度,随着预见期的延长,系统的预报精度下降,但系统在6h预见期内仍表现出较好的应用效果。因此,在数据同化和实时校正的"双校正"模式下,陆气耦合洪水预报系统在延长洪水预报预见期的同时,具有较高的洪水预报精度,具有一定的应用前景。     

构建沅水流域实时洪水预报调度系统研究

本文对沅水流域的地形、地理、气候特征和洪水发生规律进行了概述，就流域的分区、预报模型的选择和模型参数的选取、调度模型的选择和求解步骤，以及信息技术的应用等方面进行了分析和论述，其思路可作为构建沅水流域实时洪水预报调度系统设计的依据．同时也可作为其它省或流域构建类似系统时参考。     

A real-time operation optimization model for flood management in river-reservoir systems

In this paper, a new methodology has been developed for real-time flood management in river-reservoir systems. This methodology is based upon combining a Genetic Algorithm (GA) reservoir operation optimization model for a cascade of two reservoirs, a hydraulic-based flood routing simulation model in downstream river system, a Geographical Information System (GIS) based database, and application of K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithm for development of optimal operating rules. The GA optimization model estimates the optimal hourly reservoirs’ releases to minimize the flood damages in the downstream river. GIS tools have also been used for specifying different land-uses and damage functions in the downstream floodplain and it has been linked to the unsteady module of HEC-RAS flood routing model using Hec-GeoRAS module. An innovative approach has also been developed using K-NN algorithm to formulate the optimal operating rules for a system of two cascade reservoirs based on optimal releases obtained from the optimization model. During a flood event, the K-NN algorithm searches through the historical flood hydrographs and optimal reservoir storages determined by the optimization model to find similar situations. The similarity between the hydrographs is quantified based on the slopes of rising and falling limbs of inflow hydrographs and reservoir storages at the beginning of each hourly time step during the flood events for two cascade reservoirs. The developed methodology have been applied to the Bakhtiari and Dez River-Reservoir systems in southwest of Iran. The results show that the proposed models can be effectively used for flood management and real-time operation of cascade river-reservoir systems.     

水库防洪优化设计模型

针对水库防洪设计常用的设计洪水地区组成法所存在的问题,应用概率论原理,建立了考虑水库泄流和下游区间洪水洪峰流量的各种可能遭遇情况,提出了水库防洪优化设计概率约束规划模型,并应用求解有约束非线性规划问题的可变容差法进行模型求解.实例计算结果表明,所建立的模型是合理的,求解技术可行且结果正确.     

Three-dimensional flood routing of a dam break based on a high-precision digital model of a dense urban area

Dense buildings are the major factor affecting urban flood routing. Currently, the study of urban dam-break flood routing primarily focuses on a simplified terrain model and 2D shallow water equations, which ignore the effects of dense urban buildings. Furthermore, the complex interactions between the dam-break wave and the wall surfaces of buildings are not reflected in the results. To tackle these problems, three-dimensional flood routing with a high-precision digital model of an urban area is studied in this paper. Firstly, the vector data of various land types is extracted from a remote sensing image, and the NURBS algorithm based on the TIN algorithm is introduced to construct a three-dimensional terrain model. Coupled with the vector data and the terrain model, a three-dimensional digital model of the urban area is established. Next, a three-dimensional \(k{-}\varepsilon\) turbulence model is proposed for the flood routing simulation. A polyhedral grid with a second-order accuracy and a discrete format is used to divide the digital model of the urban area, and the governing equations are solved using the PISO algorithm. Finally, the superiority of the 3D mathematical model and the computational efficiency of the polyhedral mesh model are validated according to the urban flood routing experiments of Testa and Soares-Frazão. An urban reservoir, located in SZ City, China, is modelled to show that a dam-break flood in an urban area exhibits significant three-dimensional characteristics. Moreover, due to the surrounding buildings, the flood exhibits complex three-dimensional turbulence phenomena, including collision, reflection and vortices.     

长江中下游江湖蓄泄关系实时评估数值模拟

以长江中下游防洪系统为对象,将面向长江中下游防洪规划论证需求的水沙数学模型转化为面向长江防洪系统防汛方案评估需求的长江中下游蓄泄关系实时评估数学模型.为适应实时蓄泄评估快速、准确的要求,提出了基于水动力学的循环滚动计算模式、实时校正模式和实时防洪调度的试验机制.实现了水文学实时校正方法与水动力学数学模型的耦合,建立了基于水动力学的实时校正模式.为了满足长江中下游江湖蓄泄关系实时评价的需求,探讨了洪水模拟与分蓄洪调度模式的耦合.通过长江中下游防汛期间的试运行,较好地解决了防洪措施蓄泄关系评估和工程优化调控模式等关键难题,为防洪规划方案的制定和实时洪水调度方案优化提供了定量的依据,主要成果已应用于长江中下游防洪规划和防汛调度方案中.     

嘉陵江流域三江汇流洪水联机实时预报研究

不直接描述嘉陵江流域三洪汇流存在的洪水顶托等复杂的物理过程，而是采用时变参数线性模型，由作者修正的一种自适应滤波水文实时预报方法进行参数在线识别，并分别研究集总输入和多输入两种情况，实现了洪水联机实时预报，结果表明，预报精度高，且模型简单，滤波参数稳定，便于推广使用。     

基于投影寻踪和粒子群优化算法的洪水分类研究

洪水分类实际上是洪水强度大小辨别的优化问题。洪水分类不仅影响着水库的实时调度，而且也影响着洪水灾害危险评估。对利用降水预报进行洪水资源利用的水库来说，洪水分类对水库实时调度规则的建立有着重要的作用。因此，洪水分类是一个重要的理论和实践问题。本文以长江三峡水库代表性水文站——宜昌站为研究对象．基于投影寻踪方法建立了洪水分类的优化模型，并利用粒子群优化算法对所建模型进行求解。结果表明了投影寻踪方法和粒子群优化算法在洪水分类研究中的有效性和合理性．     

洋河水库防洪实时优化调度模型研究

针对河北省洋河水库特点,建立了有模糊约束条件的防洪优化调度模型,提出了含变动罚函数的离散微分动态规划法,给出了模糊防洪库容计算公式。由成果分析表明,所提模型与方法是可行和实用的。     

A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic and cellular automata-based evacuation route planning model for pedestrians in flooding scenarios

Flooding is now becoming one of the most frequent and widely distributed natural hazards, with significant losses to human lives and property around the world. Evacuation of pedestrians during flooding events is a crucial factor in flood risk management, in addition to saving people’s lives and increasing time for rescue. The key objective of this work is to propose a shortest evacuation path planning algorithm by considering the evacuable areas and human instability during floods. A shortest route optimization algorithm based on cellular automata is established while using diagonal distance calculation methods in heuristic search algorithms. The Morpeth flood event that occurred in 2008 in the UK is used as a case study, and a highly accurate and efficient 2D hydrodynamic model is adopted to discuss the flood characteristics in flood plains. Two flood hazard assessment approaches [i.e., empirical and mechanics-based and experimental calibrated (M&E)] are chosen to study human instability. A comprehensive analysis shows that extreme events are better identified with mechanics-based and experimental calibration methods than with an empirical method. The result of M&E is used as the initial condition for the Morpeth evacuation scenario. Evacuation path planning in Morpeth shows that this algorithm can realize shortest route planning with multiple starting points and ending points at the microscale. These findings are of significance for flood risk management and emergency evacuation research.

     

Quantifying the uncertainty of semiarid flash floods using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

This paper aims to address the question of how the parameter uncertainty associated with a mixed conceptual and physical based rainfall-runoff model (AFFDEF) has influences on flood simulation of the semiarid Abolabbas catchment (284 km²), in Iran. AFFDEF was modified and coupled with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm to simulate four flash flood events. Analysis suggests that AFFDEF parameters showed non-unique posterior distributions depending on the magnitudes and duration of flash flood events. Model predictive uncertainty was heavily dominated by error and bias in soil antecedent moisture condition that led to large storage effect in simulation. Overall, multiplying parameter for the infiltration reservoir capacity and multiplying parameter for the interception reservoir capacity along with potential runoff contributing areas were identified the key model parameters and more influential on flood simulation. Results further revealed that uncertainty was satisfactorily quantified for the event with low to moderate flood magnitudes while high magnitude event exhibited unsatisfactory result.     

河道洪水实时概率预报模型与应用

通过数据同化方法合理地将实时水文观测数据融入到洪水预报模型中,可提高洪水预报模型的实时性和精确度。选取沿程断面流量、水位和糙率系数作为代表水流状态的基本粒子,以监测断面实测水位数据作为观测信息,建立了基于粒子滤波数据同化算法的河道洪水实时概率预报模型。模型应用于黄河中下游河道洪水预报计算的结果表明,采用粒子滤波方法同化观测水位后,不仅可以直接校正水位,同时也可以有效地校正流量和糙率,为未来时刻模型预报计算提供更准确的水流初始条件和糙率取值区间,进而有效地提高模型预报结果的精度,给出合理的概率预报区间。不同预报期的预报结果表明,随着预报期的增长,同化效果减弱,模型预报结果的精度会有所降低,水位概率预报结果受粒子间糙率不同的影响不确定性增加,而流量概率预报结果受给定模型边界条件的影响不确定性降低。所提出模型可以有效同化真实水位观测数据,适合应用于实际的洪水预报工作中。