基于系统动力学的卸加载响应比参数及其在堆积层滑坡稳定性评价中的应用

针对堆积层滑坡的物质组成和力学性质,从系统动力学角度,提出以卸加载响应比作为滑坡稳定性评价参数,并对卸加载响应比参数与加卸载响应比参数进行了比较和分析,指出卸加载响应比参数在边坡的稳定性评价和工程实践中更具有理论意义和实际应用价值。通过论证分析,确定了构成卸加载响应比的卸加载参数和卸加载响应参数,并论证了其合理性与可行性,在此基础上建立了月降雨量-位移加速度卸加载响应比模型。并以新滩典型堆积层滑坡为例,运用该模型进行分析计算,发现卸加载响应比时序曲线所反映的稳定状态与滑坡的实际状况基本吻合,当Y' Y'-且Y'0时,滑坡整体失稳,说明卸加载响应比参数和评价模型用于预测滑坡的变形阶段和作为失稳判据是行之有效的。     

水诱发堆积层滑坡位移动力学参数及其在稳定性评价中的应用——以三峡库区黄腊石滑坡分析为例

在系统分析堆积层滑坡的物质组成和失稳动因的基础上,运用加卸载响应比理论的基本原理,首次提出了将月降雨量及其变化作为该滑坡的加卸载参数,相应月平均位移速率及其变化值为加卸载响应参数,由此所确定的位移加卸载响应比作为堆积层滑坡的位移动力学参数.并根据三峡库区降雨量与堆积层边坡位移相关关系论证了应用该位移动力学参数评价堆积层边坡稳定性的可行性和有效性.最后,运用加卸载响应比动力学参数对三峡库区黄腊石滑坡排水工程实施前后的稳定性进行了评价,评价结果与该边坡排水工程前后的稳定性变化相吻合.这表明了加卸载响应比位移动力学参数是堆积层边坡稳定性评价的一种有效位移动力学参数,可以运用该位移动力学参数对该类边坡的稳定性进行评价与预测.     

降雨型滑坡垂直位移方向率及其位移监测预警判据研究

针对降雨型滑坡位移量预测参数失稳判据的局限和不足,并根据滑坡全息论的基本原理,提出和确定了滑坡垂直位移方向率预测参数,且指出该参数是边坡稳定性演化分析与评价的一个有效位移动力参数,具有位移量或位移速率不可替代的评价和预测作用。同时,系统分析了降雨型滑坡位移与地下水位变化规律及其相互作用关系,对该类边坡稳定性的不同演化阶段的表层垂直位移方向率形成机制与变化规律进行了弹塑性力学分析与评价,分别确定了边坡压缩稳定变形阶段和塑性失稳变形阶段的表层垂直位移方向率与其稳定性演化的定量关系,并依此运用数理统计均方差基本原理,建立了该类滑坡垂直位移方向率的整体失稳监测预警判据。最后运用新滩滑坡A_3、B_3监测点垂直位移方向率对该滑坡稳定性演化过程与失稳规律进行了后验分析与评价,其分析预测结果与边坡实际变形失稳规律基本相吻合,表明该参数在该类滑坡预测预报与监测预警中具有一定的有效性与实用性。     

水库型滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比物理预测模型及其应用

众所周知,库水位变化和降雨复合动力往往是水库型滑坡的变形和破坏主因。本文在系统分析水库型边坡位移、库水位及降雨变化规律基础上,提出与确定了降雨与库水动力转换系数k的计算方法,并通过转换系数k将降雨动力与库水动力这两种不同的水动力增载效应进行了有机耦合叠加,建立了复合水动力增载参数的计算方法。并将复合水动力变化量及其位移变化量作为动力增载及其响应参数,建立了水库型滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比物理预测参数与模型。同时,运用该模型对白水河滑坡复合水动力作用下的稳定性演化规律进行了系统分析与评价,结果表明该滑坡复合水动力增载位移响应比的变化规律与其稳定性动态演化规律相吻合,表明复合水动力增载位移响应比参数是一种水库型滑坡有效的物理评价参数,可运用该物理评价参数与预测模型对该类滑坡稳定性进行分析与评价。     

降雨诱发型堆积层滑坡的位移动力学特征分析

根据降雨诱发型堆积层边坡物质组成特点与位移构成性质,建立了边坡粘弹性位移动力学模型与位移动力学方程,并以此为基础系统分析了其位移动力学行为和特征以及位移与地下水位或降雨量定量关系,发现了边坡的位移动力学特征主要取决于边坡的地下水位及其变化规律,且其位移和位移速度在整体失稳前具有强烈的波动性。上述位移动力学规律表明,仅运用位移或位移速度作为单一动力学响应参数来评价与预测该类边坡稳定性存在一定局限性。因此,选择和建立堆积层滑坡的位移多源信息预测理论与模型将具有重要的理论意义与实用价值。     

库水变动下堆积层滑坡加卸载响应规律与稳定性预测

三峡库区堆积层滑坡稳定性受库水位变动影响十分明显,库水变动下堆积层滑坡的演化过程与稳定性预测研究对防灾减灾具有重要的指导意义。基于库水变动与滑坡变形的响应关系,建立库水动力加卸载与位移速率响应耦合的加卸载响应比预测模型;建立库水变动与滑坡稳定系数的响应关系,进而确定库水变动下滑坡体的渗流场类型,并以滑坡稳定系数的变化率的正负来判断库水变动的加卸载作用。以黄莲树滑坡为例,预测其稳定性,并对预测结果进行验证。结果表明:黄莲树滑坡水平方向位移变化与库水变动存在响应关系,且响应具有明显的滞后性;库水变动下该滑坡的渗流场属于动水压力型,每个水文年中库水动力对滑坡有6个月为加载过程,1个月为卸载过程;滑坡监测点的加卸载响应比在2011年出现整体上升并大于1,揭示滑坡趋于失稳,对库水变动加卸载作用的响应加强。结论得到了宏观变形破坏迹象的验证,说明改进的加卸载响应比预测模型具有良好的预测效果。     

库水位变化下对水库滑坡稳定性影响的预测

本文在分析库水位与滑坡稳定性的一般规律的基础上，对某水库滑坡进行了考察，分析其初期蓄水过程中滑坡的位移动态和代表性测点位移的规律，确定最危险水位，进行稳定性计算中的参数反演，在此基础上，考虑地下水渗透的滞后性，进而预测了未来蓄水及潜在的库水位下降情况下滑坡稳定性与库水位的关系。     

考虑地下水作用的滑坡时间预测研究

结合三峡库区堆积层滑坡的具体情况讨论了地下水对滑坡的物理化学和力学作用,论证了地下水物理化学作用对三峡库区松散堆积层滑坡稳定性的影响远小于地下水动力作用对滑坡稳定性的影响.在此基础上,引入总压力水头,提出将地下水对滑坡的各种力学作用简化为总压力水头,结合加卸载响应比方法的思路,分别建立了基于库水位涨落和降雨影响的滑坡预...     

基于强度折减法的边坡安全预警及失稳判据研究

传统强度折减法难以对实际边坡失稳进行动态预测或预警。基于边坡失稳变形的演化规律,获得边坡特征点位移量与稳定状态的关系。利用强度折减法对边坡强度进行逐步折减,进而构建边坡折减系数与特征点位移间关系曲线,结合边坡失稳演化规律,以特征点处位移值的突变作为边坡失稳判定依据,提出一种边坡失稳预警位移值和极限位移值的确定方法,实现了对边坡安全性进行预测预警。     

基于有限元的动力稳定性评价方法与应用——以王家墩古滑坡为例

天水市秦安县王家墩滑坡为宝兰客专沿线巨型古滑坡群,秦安隧道穿其而过。笔者以王家墩古滑坡为研究对象,围绕其工程中静、动力抗滑稳定问题,通过室内试验对影响王家墩古滑坡稳定性的地质构造、场地工程条件等内在因素进行分析评价,在此基础上通过有限元动力分析,对王家墩古滑坡在地震载荷下的动力响应进行分析,明确王家墩古滑坡稳定的影响因素、地震荷载与滑坡失稳破坏间的关系。采用动力有限元法和强度折减法结合的方法,开展动力抗滑稳定分析方法研究。分析结果表明,地震作用时的水平推力对古滑坡的稳定性有很大影响,表现为上部坡体的整体滑移和隧道入口段黄土堆积层局部失稳滑塌,采用位移突变的方法来确定边坡动力失稳及动力安全系数。     

Unload–load displacement response ratio parameter and its application in prediction of debris landslide induced by rainfall

As the traditional displacement value of a landslide is very easy to be affected by rainfall, it is very difficult to establish a stable and uniform destabilized criterion of landslide in terms of the displacement value. So, it determines that establishment of an effective and stable dynamic displacement prediction parameter is very important in forecast of the debris landslides caused by rainfall. In order to determine this kind of prediction parameter, this paper first completes analysis on the relationship between the destabilized mechanism of the debris landslide and the rainfall dynamic rules. The relationship above shows that the periodical change value of rainfall can be taken as the dynamic unload–load parameter (ULP) of landslide, and the homologous change value of mensal landslide displacement can be taken as the stability displacement response parameter (DRP). Then, on the basis of the relationship between the ULP and the stability DRP of this kind of landslide, the unload–load displacement response ratio (ULDRR) appraisal parameter of this kind of landslides is established in this paper. Finally, the stability of typical debris landslides in China has been systematically studied by means of ULDRR appraisal parameter and model. We find that the ULDRR values conform to the evolutional rule of slope deformation and instability. So, it has been proved that the ULDRR parameter and the appraisal model are suitable and effective for prediction and evaluation of stability and evolution rule of rainfall-induced landslides.     

Analysis of dynamic factors of debris landslide by means of the model of quantitative theory—using the Xintan landslide, China, as an example

If prediction of a debris landslide is to be completed, the first problem is how to determine and correlate the dynamic factors. The special composition and complicated geological conditions of debris landslides have many dynamic factors influencing displacement and stability. Correlations are generally very complicated. The relationship and sequence of factors is too complex to be completed by traditional mathematical model. In order to solve the problem above, a systematical study of the quantitative and qualitative dynamic factors using a model of the quantitative theory was performed based on the displacements of Xintan landslide, China. Rainfall was found to be the most important dynamic factor among the six factors controlling displacements. Relative importance sequence and correlation was also established. All prediction results agree with the mechanism and displacement pattern of the Xintan landslide. Optimized measures of prevention and control for debris landslides can be completed with correlation of the dynamic factors by means of the quantitative theory model.     

Constituents and features of displacement vector angle of colluvial landslide

Based on an analysis of displacement-monitoring data of Xintan landslide, China, it was discovered that the whole stability of large-scale colluvial landslides can be more accurately described by taking the displacement vector angle into account, and the stability trend of a slope can be evaluated and predicted using the displacement vector angle. This paper also further indicates that the monitored deformation vector angle can be divided into sliding deformation vector angle, plastic-deformation vector angle, compressive deformation vector angle and creep deformation vector angle in terms of the displacement properties of the slope. Through the analysis it is found that the displacement vector angle, for which there is no substitute, is an important parameter serving as an explicit criterion for the stability of the slope, and hence its significance in the prediction of landslides. It is also shown that as far as the displacement vector angle is concerned, there are different constituents and features in the different deformation stage of colluvial landslide. On the basis of these and using the principles of statistics, a discussion on the stability of the colluvial slopes is carried out in terms of the monitoring data of F-series points on Xintan slope. The analysis results coincided with the destabilized time and the sliding laws, thus demonstrating that the parameter of the displacement vector angle has to a certain extent, very important significance in the forecasting of landslides.     

Double-parameter threshold and its formation mechanism of the colluvial landslide: Xintan landslide, China

Data compiled from monitoring the displacement resulting from the Xintan landslide in China was analyzed. The stability of the demonstrated colluvial slope has a close correlation with two parameters, the velocity of the displacement and the angle of the surface vector. The stability trend can be described and evaluated by both the velocity of the displacement and the vector angles. The displacement vector angle, for which there is no substitute, serves as an explicit criterion for the stability of the slope, hence it is significant in the prediction of the catastrophic movement of landslides. A systematic analysis of the features of the vector angles of the surface displacement space and time was performed. The evolving mechanism of space-time and the characteristics of the displacement vector angles were deduced. On the basis of these deductions and by using principles of statistics, the double-parameter threshold for forecasting the stability of the colluvial slopes was established. According to the double-parameter threshold, a calculation and evaluation of stability was completed in terms of the monitoring data of the F-series of points on the Xintan slope. The forecast results coincided with the destabilized timetable, thus demonstrating that the double-parameter criterion has, to a certain extent, precision and practical application for forecasting of landslides.     

Dynamic features and effects of rainfall on landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China: using the Xintan landslide and the large Huangya landslide as the examples

The study area is located in Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Over 200 landslides have been monitored over a number of years with their behavior being compared to the effective rainfall database for the study area. Analysis of the available data indicates that the occurrences of landslides in this region are controlled by rainfall, whose intensity and rainfall processes are the most important dynamic factors in determining the stability of slopes. Therefore, the relationship between rainfall and the movement of typical landslides has been specifically analyzed for the Xintan landslides and the large Huangya landslide by using the loading/unloading response ratio parameter of rainfall. The result of this study indicates that the mutation of the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall of the Xintan landslide and the large Huangya landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China occurred just before their destabilization, which shows that the loading/unloading response ratio of rainfall and its changing feature can be taken as a precursor for the landslides induced by rainfall.