上对流层/下平流层大气垂直结构研究进展

大气上对流层与下平流层区域是对流层与平流层之间的过渡区域,热带对流层顸确定了全球整个平流层的化学边界条件,该区域大气的垂直结构及变化对于平流层一对流层交换和上对流层/下平流层大气成分收支有重要影响;该区域也是大气动力、热力和大气成分结构发生巨大转换的区域,辐射过程、多尺度动力学过程、化学过程和微物理学过程等都起着同样重要的作用,对流层顶变化也是人类活动引起气候变化的一个敏感指示因子,因此关于对流层顶的研究(尤其是其精细结构和过程)重新唤起了人们的关注.针对对流层顶的各种定义(包括热力学、动力学和化学成分)以及它们相互之间的关系、对流层顶是一个面还是层以及对流层与平流层之间的转换特征、对流层顶强逆温层的特征及形成原因等基本科学问题,回顾了近年来的一些重要研究进展.     

大气对流层平流层交换(STE)研究进展

大气平流层对流层交换(Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange,STE)包括平流层向对流层的输送(Stratosphere-Troposphere Transport,STT)和对流层向平流层的输送(Troposphere-to-Stratosphere Transport,TST)2个过程,通常统称为STE交换过程.其对大气的辐射平衡、化学成分具有重要影响.研究STE对于大气化学、气候变化、平流层对流层耦合模式的发展等领域意义重大.对国内外不同尺度STE的观测、模拟与诊断做了评述,讨论了各种尺度STE的机制,比较了不同诊断方法和模式的性能和特点.着重指出目前天气尺度STE的研究虽然比较充分,但在STE过程中,中小尺度混合、湍流混合等物理过程的机制、诊断以及模拟方法的研究还有待提高.中小尺度强对流引起的TST对对流层污染物向平流层的输送作用和影响越来越受到关注.在全球快速城市化的背景下,研究城市群高污染区域强对流天气引起的TST过程及其影响具有重要的科学意义.     

火山活动对南半球平流层气候异常变化的影响

文中利用逐次滤波法分析结果表明 ,火山活动能引起平流层较大幅度增温 ,对于南半球 70hPa高空气候异常变化的影响超过了总方差的 1 6 % ;火山活动影响最显著的高度是平流层 70hPa约1 5～ 2 2km高空 ,由此高度向上或向下 ,火山活动的影响都逐渐减小 ;火山活动引起平流层大气升温的同时还将引起对流层大气降温 ,其分界线大致位于对流层顶 30 0hPa附近。平流层高空气候异常变化还具有显著的 2 2a变化周期和 1 1a变化周期 ,分析认为是大气温度场对太阳磁场磁性 2 2a周期和太阳黑子 1 1a周期变化的响应 ,其方差贡献率超过 8%。     

平流层和下垫面热状况对大气环流影响的研究和数值模拟

近年来世界范围的干旱、水灾、酷热和严寒接连不断地发生,使得人们对大气环流异常的物理机制,气候异常的原因,长期天气过程的物理基础等问题给予了越来越多的重视。海气相互作用是影响大气运动的主要过程之一;平流层的热状况对对流层大气环流也起着重要作用。从1986年3月起到1989年底我们开展了平流层和下垫面状况对大气环流影响的研究和数值模拟实验工作。研究工作主要集中在平流层臭氧的加热作用和海温异常两个方面对大     

平流层-对流层交换研究进展

平流层与对流层之间的物质输送和混合（STE）是控制自然和人为排放的化学痕量物质对大气成分影响的一个重要过程。STE可以影响温室气体在上对流层和下平流层中的垂直分布，进而影响气候。要预报全球气候变化就必须了解平流层与对流层之间动力、化学及辐射的耦合。从 STE研究的尺度问题，热带和中纬度地区STE研究以及我国STE研究现状进行了评述。STE具有多种尺度和形式，热带外平流层由波强迫驱动的全球尺度环流，可以诊断长时间尺度的STE，它不能充分描述短时间尺度过程。热带外低平流层环流不能简单地描述为纬向平均，要正确描述痕量气体的分布必须包含纬向非对称的天气尺度过程。热带地区的滴漏管理论提供了一个新的诊断 STE框架。目前对中纬度地区对流层顶折叠和切断低压的研究是比较充分的。     

臭氧变化及其气候效应的研究进展

综述了近２０年来臭氧变化的规律和机制及其气候效应等领域的研究进展,指出对流层臭氧（主要在北半球）增加、平流层臭氧减少和臭氧总量减少是全球臭氧的变化趋势,原因主要是人类活动导致的ＮＯｘ、ＮＭＨＣ、ＣＯ、ＣＨ４等对流层臭氧前体物的增加和ＮＯｘ、Ｈ２Ｏ、Ｎ２Ｏ、ＣＦＣｓ等平流层臭氧损耗物质的增加。臭氧变化引起的气候效应表现在对流层臭氧的增加将带来地表和低层大气的升温,平流层臭氧的减少则可能导致地表和低层大气的升温或降温。将全球或区域气候模式和大气化学模式进行完全耦合来研究臭氧变化的气候效应是一种十分有效的手段,具有广阔的应用前景。     

中层大气模式的应用及发展前景

随着空间探测技术和计算机能力的不断提高,近年来中层大气模式得到了快速的发展。简要概述了中层大气模式的现状及其发展中存在的问题和挑战,同时也阐述了中层大气模式在近年来研究中的一些主要应用和未来的发展前景。目前,完备的基于大气环流模式的中层大气模式大多只包括了对流层和平流层大气,少量的模式可达到中间层和热层大气。这些现有的中层大气模式对平流层的化学过程和一些动力过程都具有了一定的模拟能力,如能较好地模拟出南极臭氧空洞及其时间演变以及热带平流层大气中的准两年和准半年振荡信号。但是不同模式模拟结果之间的差异仍然是显著的,现有的中层大气模式还需要进一步的发展和完善。改进模式的辐射传输方案和重力波参数化方案,实现大气化学过程、动力过程和微物理过程的充分耦合,改善平流层以上的大气化学过程和物理过程在模式中的描述是目前正在进行的工作。中层大气模式目前已开始被广泛应用于大气科学研究的各个方面,进一步发展和完善中层大气模式不仅对天气、气候预报具有重要的意义,对空间科学的研究来讲也是需要的。     

大气中溴的环境地球化学研究进展

溴是大气平流层和对流层中的重要物种,能参与大气中的多种化学过程,对臭氧的损耗影响很大,同时也干扰大气的硫循环和汞循环,在大气化学中起着十分重要的作用.综述了近年来大气对流层和平流层溴的种类和含量、自然来源和人为来源,以及化学性质,并重点总结了活性溴物种BrO在大气中的存在情况及其在臭氧损耗中的作用.最后,提出了目前大气...     

南极地区与全球变化集成研究展望

全球变化是21世纪人类发展面临着的重大课题。近20年来的南极研究为全球变化科学的形成和发展做出了重要贡献,许多证据表明南极地区是全球变化的最敏感指示器之一。南极地区的全球变化集成研究是目前极地科学和全球变化科学研究的重要方向。21世纪,围绕全球变化,国际上对南极地区的研究正朝向具有时间和空间尺度,具有生物、海洋、大气、岩石的圈层作用、星球之间的相互影响以及人类干扰因素等集成的关键过程研究。可以预测,对南极地区的多界面、大尺度、多学科的综合集成研究,将极大地丰富和提高人们对全球气候和环境变化的了解和预测能力。中国也将在国际南极地区与全球变化集成研究中作出自己的努力。     

水体中COS光化学产生机制的初步研究

<正>羰基硫(Carbonyl Sulfide,COS)是大气对流层和平流层底部含量最为丰富的难降解还原态含硫气体之一,被认为是无火山爆发情况下平流层硫酸盐的主要来源,对全球太阳辐射及平流层臭氧损耗具有重要影响[1]。然而,目前人们对于大气中COS源和汇的认识还存在很大的不确定性,且其源和汇强度存在不平衡,仍然存在未被发现的源[2]。我们研究组发现除海洋外其他自然水体和降水中都存在COS的前体物,但是目     

Spatial observation of the ozone layer

This article provides an overview of the various satellite instruments, which have been used to observe stratospheric ozone and other chemical compounds playing a key role in stratospheric chemistry. It describes the various instruments that have been launched since the late 1970s for the measurement of total ozone column and ozone vertical profile, as well as the major satellite missions designed for the study of stratospheric chemistry. Since the discovery of the ozone hole in the early 1980s, spatial ozone measurements have been widely used to evaluate and quantify the spatial extension of polar ozone depletion and global ozone decreasing trends as a function of latitude and height. Validation and evaluation of satellite ozone data have been the subject of intense scientific activity, which was reported in the various ozone assessments of the state of the ozone layer published after the signature of the Montreal protocol. Major results, based on satellite observations for the study of ozone depletion at the global scale and chemical polar ozone loss, are provided. The use of satellite observations for the validation of chemistry climate models that simulate the recovery of the ozone layer and in data assimilation is also described.     

Future ozone in a changing climate

The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21^st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane.     

The role and performance of ground-based networks in tracking the evolution of the ozone layer

In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change.     

全球变化条件下的平流层大气长期变化趋势

两个因素将对21世纪平流层气候变化产生重要作用。一个是温室气体增加,另一个是平流层臭氧的可能恢复。温室气体增加的辐射效应一方面造成地面和对流层变暖,另一方面却导致平流层变冷,而臭氧层恢复的辐射效应则导致平流层变暖。在温室气体增加和臭氧恢复这两种相反因素作用下的平流层温度如何变化是所关心的主要问题。为了预估平流层温度在21世纪的变化,使用了辐射—对流模式进行了敏感性实验,另外,也对他人进行的化学—气候耦合模式（CCM）模拟结果进行了分析。这些模拟结果表明,在21世纪平流层中上层（60～1 hPa）将变冷,而下层（150～60 hPa）变暖。这说明在平流层中上层温室气体的冷却效应将起主导作用,而臭氧恢复的加热效应在平流层下层相对更为重要。CCM的模拟结果表明,臭氧恢复最显著的区域在平流层上层（3 hPa附近）,与最大降温区一致,说明温室气体增加将有利于平流层上层臭氧恢复。CCM的模拟结果还表明,平流层两极地区在冬半年存在变暖的现象。根据已有的研究结果,极区变暖与平流层行星波活动增强有关,动力、热力和化学之间的正反馈作用也有可能对极区变暖有重要的贡献。     

Recent Arctic ozone depletion: Is there an impact of climate change?

After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.     

The way forward for Montreal Protocol science

The Montreal Protocol has controlled the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) since its signing in 1987. The levels of most of these ODSs are now declining in the atmosphere, and there are now initial signs that ozone levels are increasing in the stratosphere. Scientific challenges remain for the Montreal Protocol. The science community projected large ozone losses if ODSs continued to increase, and that ozone levels would increase if ODSs were controlled and their levels declined. Scientists remain accountable for these projections, while they continue to refine their scientific basis. The science community remains vigilant for emerging threats to the ozone layer and seeks scientific evidence that demonstrates compliance with Montreal Protocol. As ODSs decrease, the largest impact on stratospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century will be increases in greenhouse gases. The associated climate forcings, and the human responses to these forcings, represent major uncertainties for the future of the stratospheric ozone layer.     

Is global ozone recovering?

Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine have been declining since their peak in the late 1990s. Global ozone has responded: The substantial ozone decline observed since the 1960s ended in the late 1990s. Since then, ozone levels have remained low, but have not declined further. Now general ozone increases and a slow recovery of the ozone layer is expected. The clearest signs of increasing ozone, so far, are seen in the upper stratosphere and for total ozone columns above Antarctica in spring. These two regions had also seen the largest ozone depletions in the past. Total column ozone at most latitudes, however, does not show clear increases yet. This is not unexpected, because the removal of chlorine and bromine from the stratosphere is three to four times slower than their previous increase. Detecting significant increases in total column ozone, therefore, will require much more time than the detection of its previous decline. The search is complicated by variations in ozone that are not caused by declining chlorine or bromine, but are due, e.g., to transport changes in the global Brewer–Dobson circulation. Also, very accurate observations are necessary to detect the expected small increases. Nevertheless, observations and model simulations indicate that the stratosphere is on the path to ozone recovery. This recovery process will take many decades. As chlorine and bromine decline, other factors will become more important. These include climate change and its effects on stratospheric temperatures, changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (both due to increasing CO₂), increasing emissions of trace gases like N₂O, CH₄, possibly large future increases of short-lived substances (like CCl₂H₂) from both natural and anthropogenic sources, and changes in tropospheric ozone.     

Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea–ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147–154.