科学发展 和谐创业 切实把2007年各项工作抓好抓实——赵传宝在局2007年工作会上的报告摘要之二

进一步调整和优化产业结构，提升支柱产业发展水平 进一步推进改革和开放，不断增强发展的动力和活力。 进一步推进和谐向上队伍建设，为发展提供有力保证。 进一步加强领导班子建设，不断提高领导素质和工作能力。     

湘西后发赶超新机遇

2011年11月15日，武陵山片区区域发展与扶贫攻坚试点全面启动，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、国务院扶贫开发领导小组组长回良玉强调，按照区域发展带动扶贫开发、扶贫开发促进区域发展的基本思路，加大投入力度，整合各类资源，着力解决瓶颈制约和突出矛盾，加快连片特困地区发展和脱贫致富步伐。切实抓好武陵山片区区域发展与扶贫攻坚试点，先行先试，积累经验，为全国扶贫攻坚发挥示范引领作用。     

地质学的发展轨迹和思维方式的转换过程

地质学的发展分为三个阶段，即启蒙阶段、分析阶段和综合阶段，三个阶段的地质学各具特色，总体显示地质学从分析到综合的发展轨迹。地质学的三个发展阶段，形成了人们不同的思维方式，思维方式的转换逐步与地球的客观实际相一致。当前，地质学正处于综合阶段，科学的思维方式促成了新学说和理论的产生和发展，但是，过去阶段的思维方式具有遗传性质，它对新的学说和理论具有阻碍作用。     

构建益阳城市规划区征地拆迁服务体系的思考

征地拆迁工作号称“天下第一难事”，十分棘手，不仅涉及国家、集体、个人利益的调整，而且影响经济社会发展大局和社会稳定，同时还关系到党和政府在人民群众中的威信和地位。新形势下对征地拆迁工作提出了更高的要求，既要保障发展，又要维护权益、构建和谐。因此，积极理顺体制，完善服务体系，促进征地拆迁工作的规范发展就显得尤为重要，值得探索和研究。     

工业用地公开交易中需解决的主要问题分析

工业发展离不开土地，其发展速度和规模与土地交易的方式、价格密切相关。从分析工业用地结构和价格变化出发，分析了工业用地公开交易的必要性，结合工业用地的特点，探讨了工业用地招、拍、挂中必须理顺的关系，以保证工业生产的健康发展。     

关于做好新时期援藏工作的若干思考

西藏的战略地位十分重要，发展稳定的任务十分艰巨，西藏的发展、安全、稳定、和谐涉及国家的发展、安全、稳定、和谐。全国对口支援西藏是我国一项长期的政治任务和基本政策。我国历来关心西藏各族人民，重视西藏工作。特别是1980年代以来，中央先后4次召开西藏工作座谈会，针对西藏经济建设和稳定发展中的突出问题作出了一系列重大决策，取得了举世瞩目的成就。     

坚持一个统领 实现四个创新——赵传宝谈2005年全局工作基本思路和要求

赵传宝同志在工作报告中指出，2005年工作，必须“坚持一个统领，实现四个创新”。坚持一个统领，就是坚持以科学发展观统领经济发展和各项工作，把加快发展与全面发展、协调发展和可持续发展更有机地统一起来。实现四个创新，就是努力做到在发展观念上有新的提高，在调整结构、转变增长方式、促进全局发展上有新的作为。     

广义生态水利的内涵及其过程与维度

总结中国工程水利、环境水利、资源水利、生态水利发展沿革，分析国内外生态水利研究进展、发展趋势及其特点，指出生态水利是人类社会发展到生态文明时代水资源利用的一种新途径和方式，以尊重和维护生态环境为主旨，开发水利、发展经济，为人类社会可持续发展服务。阐述了广义生态水利的内涵、定义和发展模式及其过程和维度，并提出以下结论和观点：①生态水利将水资源和水循环调控作为重要生态要素，从流域生态系统能量交换、生物链接、结构平衡、循环转化全视角开展研究，探索既能满足人类社会需求，又能兼顾水生态系统健康和良性发展的生态水利措施和方法。②建立了水利工程"规划设计—建设管理—运行调度"全过程、全生命周期的工程安全和生态安全保障体系，特别是将生态调度纳入水利工程全"服役期"，其中"后坝工时代"实施全流域大尺度生态调度，是生态保护和恢复最有效的措施。③从"生态环境-社会经济-水循环调控"三个维度，在生态文明视野下的国土空间规划治理体系中，科学把控生态水利的空间定位，促进"三生空间"优化布局，保障"三生用水"合理配置，优化"三生关系"耦合协调，实现生态保护和高质量发展，推动生态水利事业创新发展。     

兰州都市圈发展可行性与发展战略研究

近年来都市圈理论的引入和创新发展，对城市化理论有重要影响。我国西部地区的城市化有其特殊性，西部地区的城市化研究对促进西部地区的现代化发展、落实科学发展观、保障全国的可持续发展都具有重要理论与现实意义。都市圈理论对西部地区尤其是西北地区中心城市区域的发展具有指导性，以兰州为例分析了西北地区都市圈建设的可行性与前景。首先分析论证了兰州都市圈建设的可行性，得出了兰州不仅迫切需要建设都市圈而具备发展都市圈的良好条件的结论；接着，以定量与定性结合的方法，评价了兰州在我国西部地区中心城市中的地位和兰州都市圈发展水平，发现兰州都市圈的雏形已经形成，在区域开发中发挥着重要作用；最后，提出了兰州都市圈发展战略，包括战略目标、战略思路、战略重点等，展示了兰州都市圈发展的前景。兰州都市圈可行性的典型研究，也展示了都市圈发展模式在西北地区开发中的应用的可行性，对完善我国的城市化理论和实践具有重要意义。     

推进农地抵押的现实路径

在发展经济学中，农村金融的功能早已被提升到农村发展的核心地位。对许多发展中国家的研究表明，包括土地抵押融资、小额信贷在内的农村金融，可以刺激投资、创业、技术进步和移民，而这些都是农村发展、消除贫困最有力的因素。土地和房屋是农民最重要的资产，其抵押功能成为发展农村金融的关键。     

边坡稳定性分析条分法的细胞自动机求解和应用

边坡稳定性分析的条分法如瑞典条分法、毕肖普条分法等,现仍是边坡分析和评估的主要方法。由于刚体条分的假定,如何简化和计算条间力,是各种方法里最为关键的问题。合理的简化成为不同方法的求解途径,也是影响其计算结果差别的主要和直接的原因。然而,带着这一简化的遗憾,各种条分法仍是我们目前分析边坡稳定性的主要手段。针对研究现状,尝试更合理求解条分法条间力的求解方法,对条块刚性接触的条间力,不做简化,而引入细胞自动机求解方法,通过迭代得到条间力的解,从而使超静定的边坡条分力学模型,得到了唯一收敛的静定解。编制了相应的程序软件CASlope。结果表明,这一求解途径是可行的,所求解的结果是合理的。     

Gas chromatographic/mass spectrometric (GC/MS) analysis of C27–30-steranes

Sterane analyses in petroleum geochemistry are normally based on mass spectrometric detection of major fragment ions. This method has limited specificity and is much improved by detection of parent or metastable transition ions. The latter provide a less complex picture and suggest a better analytical approach, although the technique has only limited mass resolution.Geochemical parameters calculated from mass spectrometric data are dependent on the method employed. Accepted values of these parameters will, therefore, show some variations with the techniques used.Internal standards are necessary for quantitative determination of components by mass spectrometry. A recommended approach is to use a stable isotope labelled analogue of the compound being determined with, in the case of deuterium, only three or four isotopic atoms introduced into the molecule. Too few isotopic atoms will result in interference from the natural isotopes and too many will give analytical deviations.     

Stages in the emergence of a participatory tourism development approach in the Developing World

This study has attempted to examine and explain the stages in the emergence of the participatory tourism development approach under prevailing socio-economic, cultural and political conditions in developing countries without ignoring rural, peripheral areas of the developed world. It identifies three stages. These are: (1) the emergence of the pressures from external and internal factors on the central government to accept, support and facilitate the implementation of a participatory development approach, (2) the emergence of political will at central level, and (3) enacting legal measurements, re-structuring administrative systems at operational level and the actual community consultation or participation process. These stages are explored and elaborated under the guidance of three propositions. It concludes that political will at central level, enacting relevant legal measurements, empowering local communities and cooperation of dominant elite groups are sine qua non for the emergence and operationalization of the participatory tourism development approach as a pro-active tourism development strategy in a given developing country.     

Toward a rapid probabilistic seismic vulnerability assessment using satellite and ground-based remote sensing

Natural hazards such as earthquakes threaten millions of people all around the world. In a few decades, most of these people will live in fast-growing, inter-connected urban environments. Assessing risk will, therefore, be an increasingly difficult task that will require new, multidisciplinary approaches to be tackled properly. We propose a novel approach based on different imaging technologies and a Bayesian information integration scheme to characterize exposure and vulnerability models, which are among the key components of seismic risk assessment.     

Education in blasting engineering one-dimensional block model for bench blasting

Bench blasting has a long tradition and yet the mechanics of throw and muck-pile formation is not clearly understood. This educational paper addresses bench blasting and muck-pile formation in a very simplified manner: a two-block system with ensuing formation of a two-block muckpile is investigated. It will become apparent that the study of a two-block system is perfectly sufficient for a deeper understanding of the problem of the entire bench blast and muck-pile formation. Two approaches will be presented: the momentum or impact approach and the wave propagation approach. The movement of the individual blocks and the formation of a 'two-block muck-pile' will be studied for both approaches and the differences in the results will be discussed. The purpose is to clarify, during blasting and ensuing block movement, the influence of the wave propagation action as compared to a purely gas-pressure based momentum treatment of muckpile formation. The results show that a wave propagation approach may lead to considerably different results for jointed rock mass and for certain combinations of parameters.     

A comparison between finite element and finite difference explicit formulations for triangular and quadrilateral plane-strain elements

For non-linear dynamic problems, it has been recognized that an explicit time-integration method of approach is a very efficient way of solving the dynamic equations of motion. The numerical formulation and computation for such problems fall into the two general categories of finite elements and finite differences. Over the years, there have been many arguments between schools which adopt the finite element approach and those which adopt the finite difference approach. At one extreme, arguments areconcerned with the superiority of each approach and at the other end of the spectrum the arguments are about which approach is a subset of the other. The most common of these arguments are concerned with efficiency and accuracy. This publication addresses the accuracy issue with specific reference to explicit calculations in which the analysis domain is discretized into triangular or quadrilateral plane-strain elements. It concludes that if the same basic assumptions are made in the two approaches, they, will give identical answers for problems in this category.     

岩石损伤断裂的沙堆元胞自动机模拟

在岩石材料的加载过程中,当荷载超过某一临界值时,岩石的变形从稳定变形阶段突变为不稳定变形阶段,即使是保持荷载不变,破裂也会继续发展,表现为“雪崩”式的破坏过程。基于自组织临界性理论及沙堆元胞自动机模型,对岩石失稳破坏过程中的损伤演化、裂纹扩展规律进行了探讨,从新的角度研究了岩石失稳破坏的细观演化规律。     

Unbiased identification of nonlinear sorption characteristics by soil column breakthrough experiments

Accurate identification of interactions of reactive solutes with porous media constituents is necessary for reliable risk assessment studies and the development of efficient sanitation strategies. Standard parameter estimation procedures bear a number of unsolved problems with respect to uniqueness and identifiability. This paper presents a new approach for the identification of nonlinear interaction parameters of column outflow experiments. The procedure requires no a priori assumptions on the shape of the underlying interaction process functions. Employing experimental data sets on cadmium and anthracene breakthrough as case studies, possible applications of the new approach will be shown, and its features will be discussed. Error analysis based on singular value decomposition of the sensitivity matrix quantifies the identification error. Identification procedures without a priori shape information are superior to fixed parametrizations in diagnostic investigations, especially in cases without reliable a priori knowledge on the sorptive interactions.     

3D stability analysis of gravity dams on sloped rock foundations using the limit equilibrium method

A convenient approach to performing stability analysis of concrete gravity dams is the so-called two-dimensional “gravity method.” However, concrete gravity dams located in valleys with sloped rock foundation abutments behave as three-dimensional (3D) structures and are often able to share compressive and shear loads between adjacent monoliths, especially when shear keys are present. A general 3D limit equilibrium method was developed in this study to compute global sliding safety factors (SSF_g) by considering sequential load redistribution among adjacent monoliths when individual monoliths have mobilized their sliding strength. Two validation examples of the sliding safety assessment of existing dams are presented to illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed approach compared to that of the full 3D numerical analyses conducted using the distinct element method. It is shown that gravity dams may be formed by individual monoliths on sloped rock foundations that will slide if considered as isolated structures but will constitute a stable assembly when the load-sharing capabilities of monoliths are recognized in the analysis.     

Approaches to carbon allowance allocation in China: a computable general equilibrium analysis

China is preparing to develop and implement an emissions trading system in its 13th five-year plan. Allowance allocation is one of the key issues to settle during the establishment of this system. This study applies the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis model to assess how the allowances should be allocated. Simulation results show that, while impacts on China’s economic development vary according to how allowances are allocated, the negative impacts cannot be mitigated completely, which are between −0.5 and −0.1 % when 5 % of carbon emissions are reduced. In terms of the impacts on the macroeconomy, sectoral output, and capital revenue, results suggest that auctioning the allowances and recycling the revenue to reduce the indirect tax will perform best in alleviating the negative impacts. Meanwhile, impacts of carbon mitigation on international competitiveness can be reduced most in the approach where only key energy- and trade-intensive sectors are able to receive free allowances. However, if citizens’ welfare and quality of life is prioritized, auctioning the allowance and transferring the revenue to households in proportion to their occupation will be the most effective approach; in this case, the negative impacts on rural households’ disposable incomes and welfare will be reduced, and the income gap between rural and urban households will be narrowed.