亚失稳态野外观测证据

2010年1月24日,山西省河津市发生了M_S 4.8级地震,在此之前,山西临汾地震台VP型宽频带倾斜仪2009年的观测数据清晰地记录到与实验室岩石破裂失稳过程类似的图像:4-7月观测数据以准线性变化为主;8月出现偏离线性的非线性变化;10月达到峰值点之后开始缓慢下降,此阶段即亚失稳阶段;12月出现加速下降;12月21日转平。转平之后35 d距离观测台站89 km处的河津市即发生了M_S 4.8级地震。在准线性阶段(岩石破裂实验的应力积累阶段),发震断层及附近的Benioff应变曲线也出现同步加速现象。这表明临汾地震台VP型宽频带倾斜仪所记录的亚失稳态现象是来自震源的信息。实验室观测到的亚失稳现象可在野外观测数据中得以验证。     

汶川8.0级地震前BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到的地形变异常现象

地倾斜连续观测是地壳形变观测研究中重要内容。汶川8.0级地震前,布设在四川德阳金河测点的新型BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到了明显的地形变异常现象。分析其观测结果可知,汶川8.0级地震前约半月时间内德阳金河测点的地倾斜运动速度较过去的平均运动水平提高了数十倍,且震前地表快速倾斜的方向在N25°W左右。除此之外,德阳金河BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪测点还观测到较为完整的,对应于可以反映地表应力集中、释放过程的震前地表破裂过程。上述现象为今后研究强震孕育机理提供了重要的信息。介绍与分析了布设在龙门山断裂带附近的其它类型地倾斜仪在震前的观测结果。事实证明,BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪在强震前的浅表过程监测中具有重要意义,值得在今后的地震前兆台网工作中进行推广。     

安图M3. 7 及柳树M4. 3 地震前后YＲY——4 钻孔应变观测曲线异常形态

YＲY--4 钻孔应变观测作为一种重要的前兆观测手段,能有效地记录地震前后地应力应变变化。吉林安图境内M3. 7 级地震前后及辽宁营口柳树M4. 3 级地震前,吉林省敦化台及辽宁省营口台YＲY --4 钻孔应变观测分别观测到曲线异常。经对比分析,敦化台观测曲线异常形态为: 异常--走平--发震-- 震后阶跃; 营口地震台观测曲线异常形态为: 异常--返回--发震。两次异常虽然形态各异,但提供了丰富的前兆信息,具有较好的时效性。     

昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震前跨断层位移资料异常特征

一、引言 2001年11月14日发生在新疆—青海昆仑山口西的8.1级地震,是本世纪以来中国大陆发生的最大的一次地震,因该震源区附近无任何观测手段,为无监测能力区。但震后我们发现在8.1级地震所波及范围内的各观测手段都有不同程度的长、中、短期及震时异常。在震源区东部的四川、甘肃、宁夏等省跨断层位移观测点均出现不同程度的异常,但当时却未能用这些异常预测出8.1级地震的发震区,这主要是由于构造结构不同使得孕震过程     

基于差分干涉雷达的汶川地震同震形变特点

地震同震形变场是认识震源机制、确定发震断裂、分析发震断裂活动方式、评估震害损失及揭示未来发震趋势的重要依据。但在龙门山地区复杂的自然环境中, 现有的地震同震形变场获取方法(GPS测量、构造形迹分析、震源机制解结合数值模拟计算)难以快速、全面的捕捉到这种信息, 这突显出差分干涉雷达技术(D-InSAR, Differential Interferometry SAR)在同震形变场研究中的优势。本文介绍了其观测原理, 在地震同震形变监测中的研究现状, 并重点分析了已获取的D-InSAR汶川地震同震形变场的观测结果。基于差分干涉雷达观测及相关资料, 对龙门山断裂在本次地震中活动性进行了初步分析, 结果表明干涉雷达形变图像与地表破裂范围、逆冲角度的变化、上下盘升降关系及大型余震的展布存在很强的相关性。      

2019年甘肃夏河Ms5.7地震前后重力场异常特征分析

地震的孕育发生过程伴随着构造运动、物质迁移和密度变化,将引起地球重力场变化,流动重力重复观测有可能捕捉到与地震孕育有关的前兆信息,从而为中短期地震预测提供重要依据.基于南北地震带2017-2020年的流动重力观测资料,获得了甘东南地区的区域重力场时空变化图像,分析了区域重力场动态变化及其与2019年甘肃夏河Ms 5.7地震发生的关系.结果 表明:①震前测区重力异常变化等值线与临潭—宕昌断裂走向基本一致,且在震中附近出现四象限分布特征,夏河Ms5.7地震发生在重力高梯度带和四象限中心附近;②地震前后区域重力场经历了"区域性重力异常—四象限分布特征—反向变化发震"的时空演化过程;③九寨沟地震的发生可能引起附近断层区域应力场的调整,从而加速了夏河地震的发生;④区域重力场时变与临潭—宕昌断裂在空间上有较好的对应,综合分析可认为该次地震的发震断裂为临潭—宕昌断裂.     

1981年12月29日连城丘家山3.2级地震

一、地震基本参数表1　地震基本参数表发震时间年月日时分秒震　中　位　置微　观宏　观东经北纬东经北纬参考地名震级(ＭＳ)震源深度(Ｋｍ)震中烈度　地震类型　1981122912261172°256°1171°256°连城丘家山3211Ⅴ小震群　　表中的宏观震中是根据现场调查所圈定的Ⅴ度线推测的,位于微观震中的南西方向约6公里的丘家山林场附近。震源深度则是依据经验公式计算结果推断的。二、地震烈度分布本次地震震中地处山区,强度小,地表破坏轻微,主要根据人的感觉及房屋的轻微损坏与否进行评定,划分出Ⅴ、Ⅳ度两区(见图8-1)。图8-1　1981年12月29日连…     

基于重力值标准差研究长宁6.0级地震活动性

通过对长宁6.0级地震前后经固体潮和零点位移改正后的重力静态观测数据、重力仪实时观测标准差(S.D.)和舍弃数量(REJ)数据的分析,认为发震时检测到的重力值变化往往是重力仪震动滤波功能失效,导致重力仪读数错误。长宁6.0级地震在地震波到达之前未能观测到有效的重力异常变化信号,这是因为当重力仪震动滤波功能开启时,大于4～6倍标准差的高频噪声将被自动拒绝,重力场的瞬时变化在重力静态观测数据中反映不出来,但是这种变化可以通过S.D.指标来反映。由于S.D.值包括了重力仪自身噪声和环境震动等重力高频干扰信号,它可以用来衡量信号噪声的大小。通过对地震发生时重力仪在不同时刻记录S.D.值与地震震级相关性分析认为,地震震级与重力仪记录S.D.值呈明显的正相关关系。在记录到的21次地震中,在发震前有2次重力仪记录S.D.值有明显突变,有1次在发震前8 min观测到REJ值的突变,因此可以根据S.D.值的突变并结合重力值和REJ值的变化来预报地震和判定单次地震活动持续时间。     

江西九江地震系列和福建地区地震活动研究

本文将福建地区及2005年11月26日江西九江Ml6.0*级(Ms5.7**)地震系列以及台湾海峡等相关区域划分出9个结点区。通过对结点区地震活动与周边(包括台湾等)4次有影响的≥6级强震对比研究,得到以下认识:1)强震能量和距离结点远近是影响异常幅度的两项主要因素。7级大震前后,在该区多个结点地震活动出现同步变化。6级地震则不明显。2)大震发生前大面积异常,半径约达200公里。小震活动增强首先从外围开始,大震源区及其附近则经历1段相对平静期,直到震前半年左右小震活动才开始增强,形成平静——密集——发震的特点。3)福建地区中小地震活动异常,于九江地区6级地震前,较台湾海峡6级地震前显著,前者对福建地区地震活动的影响较后者稍大。4)部分较敏感的结点区,中强地震发生前小震活动有异常表现,可作为本结点区域内的预报参考。以上研究结果,可供福建地区4——5.9级中强地震,周围地区6——6.9级强震以及台海地区≥7级大震中长期监测的参考。     

基于GPS监测的芦山地震周围地区同震位移与运动速度

通过对2013年"4.20"四川芦山地震前后GPS观测数据的处理,得到地震周围地区GPS测站同震位移及速度矢量场。GPS测站同震位移大小为5.09~51.05mm,平均为14.18mm;GPS测站运动速度为2.64~52.37mm/a,平均为18.89mm/a。利用断裂两侧GPS测站速度矢量差得到了龙门山断裂带南段次级断裂的运动速度,龙门山断裂带南段的后山断裂、中央断裂、前山断裂运动速度大小分别为49.66±3.90mm/a、79.58±3.33mm/a、50.94±3.91/a;中央断裂以右旋挤压为主,而后山断裂、前山断裂表现为左旋拉张的特性。综合分析表明,芦山地震是发生在龙门山断裂带南段东南侧的逆冲型地震,发震构造为前山断裂与新津断裂之间的小断层。芦山地震对周围地区的影响不大,主要集中在龙门山断裂带南段及震中附近区域。     

Seismotectonics of the 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 Earthquake

The 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 earthquake occurred in a seismotectonic setting of moderate earthquake. The northwest-trending Xiangfan-Guangji fault (XFG) does not enter into the epicenter vicinity, but the northeast-trending Ruichang-Wuning fault (RWF) as a regional fault extends to the epicenter nearby, appearing as the Ruichang basin and its marginal faults. Tilting of the Ruichang Basin (RCB) in the Quaternary was controlled by the RCB southeast-marginal, buried fault (RSMBF). Shallow geophysical survey reveals that the RSMBF caused an offset of the reflection layers. Drill hole columnar section demonstrates that there are about 10–12?m displacement in the lower section of the middle-Pleistocene Series along the RSMBF, but no disruption is found in the upper section of the middle-Pleistocene Series. The RSMBF not only has activity in the Quaternary, but also coincides with the nodal plane I from the focal mechanism of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake. This evidence, including aftershock distribution and isoseismic lines, strongly suggests that the RSMBF might be the seismogenic tectonics. The RWF is discontinuous at the surface, and consists of three en echelon Quaternary basins, which are the Ruichang, Fanzhen and Wuning basins. Three moderate earthquakes, the Fanzhen ML?4.9 earthquake, the Yejiapu ML?4.1 earthquake and the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake, have happened in the basins since 1995. The seismogenic tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake is not isolated, but may be controlled by the RWF at depth, the slip of which causes the accumulation of energy for earthquake occurrence.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 1): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by seismic data, gravity and thermal modeling

The Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 with an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0 is the most destructive earthquake in European history, yet the source region remains enigmatic. Recent geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the nearby Gibraltar Arc. Marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image active thrust faults in an accretionary wedge, above an east dipping decollement and an eastward dipping basement. Tomographic and other data support subduction and rollback of a narrow slab of oceanic lithosphere beneath the westward advancing Gibraltar block.Although, no instrumentally recorded seismicity has been documented for the subduction interface, we propose the hypothesis that this shallow east dipping fault plane is locked and capable of generating great earthquakes (like the Nankai or Cascadia seismogenic zones). We further propose this east dipping fault plane to be a candidate source for the Great Lisbon earthquake of 1755. In this paper we use all available geophysical data on the deep structure of the Gulf of Cadiz–Gibraltar region for the purpose of constraining the 3-D geometry of this potentially seismogenic fault plane. To this end, we use new depth processed seismic data, have interpreted all available published and unpublished time sections, examine the distribution of hypocenters and perform 2-D gravity modeling. Finally, a finite-element model of the forearc thermal structure is constructed to determine the temperature distribution along the fault interface and thus the thermally predicted updip and downdip limits of the seismogenic zone.     

Deep Seismogenic Environment in the Southern Section of the Longmenshan Fault Zone on the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Lushan Ms 7.0 Earthquake

The 2,026 earthquake events registered by the Sichuan regional digital seismic network and mobile seismic array after the April 20 th,2013 Lushan earthquake and 28,188 pieces of data were selected to determine direct P waves arrival times. We applied the tomographic method to inverse the characteristics of the velocity structure for the three-dimensional(3D) P wave in the mid-upper crust of the seismic source region of the Lushan earthquake. The imaging results were combined with the apparent magnetization inversion and magnetotelluric(MT) sounding retest data to comprehensively study the causes of the deep seismogenic environment in the southern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and explore the formation of the Lushan earthquake. Research has shown that there are obvious differences in velocity structure and magnetic distribution between the southern and northern sections of the Longmenshan fault zone. The epicenter of the Lushan earthquake is located near the boundary of the high and low-velocity anomalies and favorable for a high-velocity section. Moreover,at the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake located on the magnetic dome boundary of Ya’an,the development of high velocity and magnetic solid medium favors the accumulation and release of strain energy. Lowvelocity anomalies are distributed underneath the are of seismogenic origin,The inversion results of the MT retest data after the April 20 th Lushan earthquake also indicate that there a high-conductor anomaly occurs under the area of seismogenic origin of the Lushan earthquake,Therefore,we speculated that the presence of a high-conductivity anomaly and low-velocity anomaly underneath the seismogenic body of the Lushan earthquake could be related to the existence of fluids. The role of fluids caused the weakening of the seismogenic layer inside the mid-upper crust and resulted in a seismogenic fault that was prone to rupture and played a triggering role in the Lushan earthquake.     

世界性科学难题——地震预报有可能首先在中国实现突破

采用多学科交叉的地震前兆观测方法 ,成功地做出了一些地震的临震预测及年度 (中期 )预测。可以预测几千km以外的 7级以上大地震。预测地震 3要素 (发震时间、震级及地点 )所达到的精度在地震史上也是罕见的。文中介绍了我们所用的主要地震前兆观测方法 :次声波、地应力、地电脉冲、大地微动、引潮力共振叠加等。文中还介绍了几次较好的临震预测及年度预测震例。从近几年的地震预测实践证明 ,对 7级以上大地震做出准确的预报是可能的。     

公元600年秦陇地震发震构造分析及考证研究

据史料记载,公元600年秦陇地区发生了一次大地震。关于此次地震的震中位置、震级、震中烈度和发震构造长期存在争议。根据在陇县固关一带发现的地震崩塌体,同时结合史料考证、卫星影像判读、野外调查、探槽开挖、年龄测试等手段,研究认为:公元600年秦陇地震的发震构造为六盘山东麓断裂南段固关段;秦陇地震震中在陇县固关镇一带,震级为6$ {}^{3}\!\!\diagup\!\!{}_{4}\; $级,震中烈度为Ⅸ度。该地震的研究对于六盘山地区地震危险性评估和青藏块体北东向扩展的动力学过程理解有重要意义。      

青藏高原东北缘地区水氡异常特征与地震活动关系的探讨

将活动断裂与地震前兆现象相结合,运用地质力学观点,研究了青藏高原东北缘水氡前兆异常的区域特征,如异常本底、异常台项比,初步讨论了前兆异常分布偏离未来震中区的构造动力成因,提供了地震危险性估计、发震地点预报的定量分析指标,这些指标对该区域Ms ≥ 4.1级地震的预报具有一定的实用价值.      

2013年云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界5.9级地震灾害及发震构造

2013年8月28日、31日, 云南迪庆藏族自治州香格里拉县、德钦县、四川省甘孜藏族自治州得荣县交界地区连续发生5.1级、5.9级地震.为了查明此次地震的影响破坏程度, 进行了地震现场建筑物震害考察并对震中附近断裂进行了野外构造地质剖面调查.两次地震在短时间内并在相近位置连续发生, 造成了此次云南香格里拉、德钦-四川得荣交界地震比以往同级地震的破坏程度要高, 地震烈度最高为Ⅷ级, 有感范围大, 5.9级地震宏观震中大致处在整个灾区破坏最严重的奔子栏镇争古村一带(28.20°N, 99.36°E), 距离地震微观震中约5.1km.等震线沿德钦-中甸断裂呈北西向分布, 近似为椭球状, 结合此次地震震中附近区域现场断裂调查、震源机制解数据以及地震余震空间分布特征, 初步推断此次地震的发震构造为德钦-中甸断层, 其主要表现为一次以正断为主兼有左旋走滑错动的地震事件.      

Seismological monitoring on the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, derived from off Kushiro permanent cabled OBSs and land-based observations

Japan Marine Science and Technology Center installed a cabled geophysical observatory system off Kushiro, Hokkaido Island in July 1999. This observatory system comprises three ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), two tsunami gauges, and a geophysical/geochemical monitoring system. 4 years and 2 months after the installation, a megathrust earthquake (the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, 26th September in Japan Standard Time (JST), M_JMA 8.0) occurred along a plate boundary underneath a forearc basin where the system is located. The system recorded clear unsaturated seismograms just at 28.6 km from the epicenter. This paper demonstrates advantages brought by the cabled observatory to record the megathrust earthquake showing how earthquake detectability is improved dramatically combining permanent OBS and land-based observations around the region, and importance of the in situ monitoring on the seismogenic zone. In the present study, processing OBSs and land-based network together, and comparing magnitudes of common observed earthquakes with national authorized network, event detection level improved down to M 1.5, which is much lower than the previously designed as down to M  2. Comparing detection level before and after installing OBSs, we found dramatic improvement of the earthquake detection level in the interesting region. Real-time continuous observations of microearthquakes since 1999 have brought us tremendous findings. First, a seismic quiescence started about 10 days before the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake. Second, aftershock distribution is not uniform over the focal area and can be divided into several sub-regions, which might indicate an existence of several asperities. We think that the geophysical observations helped to understand the initiation process of the rupture of the 2003 Tokachi-Oki earthquake and that observations including seismological, geodynamic, hydrogeological, and the other multidisciplinary observations would provide a clue to future understanding of seismogenic processes at subduction zones.     

地震机理的地球系统科学研究及预测实践

本文提出了一个新的地震机理模型:高温高压高导低速流变体震源腔(简称震源腔)与闭锁断层组合模型。高温高压下的软流圈物质在复杂相变空间中,受到温度场中的异重流作用和受迫振动作用而形成深源震源腔。随着软流圈物质上涌, 幔汁在温度差和压力差驱使下,涌入地壳中的物理空间,形成浅源地震震源腔。由于温度升高使得腔体内岩石部分熔融或全部熔融,释放出大量气液流体,拓展腔体空间范围,同时提升腔体内压。当腔体内部有效压力(即内压与上覆地壳压力之差)达到腔体边缘或者上方与脆性活动断层交会部位的岩石破坏强度时,震源腔便进入临界状态。当软流圈物质上涌继续向腔体内供能,或者由于星体连线在震源区造成触发作用,便引起震源腔的隐蔽爆炸,即隐爆,释放腔体内部积累的能量,同时释放区域构造应力场作用于闭锁断层积累的应变能。 腔体隐爆释放能量与腔体规模正相关。闭锁断层释放应变能与闭锁断层规模、闭锁区大小以及区域构造应力场强度相关。震源腔与脆性活动断层交会部位,是潜在震源位置。多年观测资料表明,震源腔从进入临界状态到隐爆,一般经历1~13天,平均7天。长期观测表明,潜在震中区在震前经常出现干旱、气温升高、海温升高、大量水汽释放等异常现象。通过超低频地震仪监测、重力波作用于水汽形成的地震云的观测、次声波的监测、卫星重力异常反映的高程面垂向震荡监测、以及地基卫星导航系统地面升降监测等,都显示出震源腔进入临界状态后的胀缩震荡引起震中及其外围地面的垂向振动。文中还给出了震源腔体隐爆遗迹的直接证据。