Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello-Presanella Massif (Italian Alps)

Tree rings from temperature-limited environments are highly sensitive climate proxies, widely used to reconstruct past climate parameters for periods prior to the availability of instrumental data and to analyse the effect of recent global warming on tree growth. An analysis of the climatic signal in five high-elevation tree-ring width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the tops of five different glacial valleys in the Italian Central Alps revealed that they contain a strong summer-temperature signal and that tree-ring growth is especially influenced by June temperatures. However, a moving correlation function analysis revealed a recent loss of the June temperature signal in the tree-ring chronologies. This signal reduction primarily involves the two lowest-altitude chronologies. It is probable that the observed increasing importance of late-summer temperature for tree-ring growth over the past 50 yr is an effect of the lengthening growing season and of the variations in the climate/tree-ring relationship over time. All the chronologies considered, especially those at the highest altitudes, show an increasing negative influence of June precipitation on tree-ring growth. The climatic signal recorded in tree-ring chronologies from the Italian Central Alps varies over time and is also differentially influenced by climatic parameters according to site elevation.     

Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr

Many years of low growth identified in a western USA regional chronology of upper forest border bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva and Pinus aristata) over the last 5000 yr coincide with known large explosive volcanic eruptions and/or ice core signals of past eruptions. Over the last millennium the agreement between the tree-ring data and volcano/ice-core data is high: years of ring-width minima can be matched with known volcanic eruptions or ice-core volcanic signals in 86% of cases. In previous millennia, while there is substantial concurrence, the agreement decreases with increasing antiquity. Many of the bristlecone pine ring-width minima occurred at the same time as ring-width minima in high latitude trees from northwestern Siberia and/or northern Finland over the past 4000-5000 yr, suggesting climatically-effective events of at least hemispheric scale. In contrast with the ice-core records, the agreement between widely separated tree-ring records does not decrease with increasing antiquity. These data suggest specific intervals when the climate system was or was not particularly sensitive enough to volcanic forcing to affect the trees, and they augment the ice core record in a number of ways: by providing confirmation from an alternative proxy record for volcanic signals, by suggesting alternative dates for eruptions, and by adding to the list of years when volcanic events of global significance were likely, including the mid-2nd-millennium BC eruption of Thera.     

Spatial reconstruction of summer temperatures in Central Europe for the last 500 years using annually resolved proxy records: problems and opportunities

Most palaeoclimate studies in Central Europe, utilizing annually resolved proxies such as tree-ring and documentary sources to reconstruct past temperatures, have focused mainly upon single sites or regional studies. The combined information of published summer temperature reconstructions from the Alpine region show a generally coherent picture of cool conditions for the periods c. 1450-1475, 1575-1610, 1660-1710, 1800-1850 and 1875-1925. These reconstructed cool periods can be partly explained by external forcing (e.g. low solar activity and volcanic events). However, these reconstructions, in their present form, cannot be used to comparatively assess spatial summer temperature variability through the region due to methodological differences in their development and the fact that many of them were not originally developed to emphasize spatial patterns. We propose that a network of tree-ring chronologies which have been processed in a consistent way would allow the robust reconstruction of spatial summer temperature variability for high elevations in Central Europe. Unfortunately, most living tree-ring chronologies only go back into the 18th century - so restricting the length of reconstruction. As a possible solution, we introduce a historical database of ring-width series, measured from string instruments, that could be used to extend high elevation spruce chronologies in Central Europe back for at least 500 years.     

Impact of climate and CO2 on a millennium-long tree-ring carbon isotope record

We present one millennium-long (1171-year), and three 100 year long annually resolved δ¹³C tree-ring chronologies from ecologically varying Juniperus stands in the Karakorum Mountains (northern Pakistan), and evaluate their response to climatic and atmospheric CO₂ changes. All δ¹³C records show a gradual decrease since the beginning of the 19th century, which is commonly associated with a depletion of atmospheric δ¹³C due to fossil fuel burning. Climate calibration of high-frequency δ¹³C variations indicates a pronounced summer temperature signal for all sites. The low-frequency component of the same records, however, deviates from long-term temperature trends, even after correction for changes in anthropogenic CO₂. We hypothesize that these high-elevation trees show a response to both climate and elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the latter might explain the offset with target temperature data. We applied several corrections to tree-ring δ¹³C records, considering a range of potential CO₂ discrimination changes over the past 150 years and calculated the goodness of fit with the target via calibration/verification tests (R², residual trend, and Durbin-Watson statistics). These tests revealed that at our sites, carbon isotope fixation on longer timescales is affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at a discrimination rate of about 0.012‰/ppmv. Although this statistically derived value may be site related, our findings have implications for the interpretation of any long-term trends in climate reconstructions using tree-ring δ¹³C, as we demonstrate with our millennium-long δ¹³C Karakorum record. While we find indications for warmth during the Medieval Warm Period (higher than today’s mean summer temperature), we also show that the low-frequency temperature pattern critically depends on the correction applied. Patterns of long-term climate variation, including the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and 20th century warmth are most similar to existing evidence when a strong influence of increased atmospheric CO₂ on plant physiology is assumed.     

Tree-ring dates on two pre-Little Ice Age advances in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA

Two interstadial tree ring-width chronologies from Geikie Inlet, Glacier Bay Southeast, Alaska were built from 40 logs. One of these chronologies has been calendar dated to AD 224–999 (775 yr) crossdating with a living ring-width chronology from Prince William Sound, Alaska. Trees in this chronology were likely killed through inundation by sediments and meltwater from the advancing Geikie Glacier and its tributaries ca. AD 850. The earlier tree-ring chronology spans 545 yr and is a floating ring-width series tied to radiocarbon ages of about 3000 cal yr BP. This tree-ring work indicates two intervals of glacial expansion by the Geikie Glacier system toward the main trunk glacier in Glacier Bay between 3400 and 3000 cal yr BP and again about AD 850. The timing of both expansions is consistent with patterns of ice advance at tidewater glaciers in other parts of Alaska and British Columbia about the same time, and with a relative sea-level history from just outside Glacier Bay in Icy Strait. This emerging tree-ring dated history builds on previous radiocarbon-based glacial histories and is the first study to use tree-ring dating to assign calendar dates to glacial activity for Glacier Bay.     

Boreal temperature variability inferred from maximum latewood density and tree-ring width data, Wrangell Mountain region, Alaska

Variations in both width and density of annual rings from a network of tree chronologies were used to develop high-resolution proxies to extend the climate record in the Wrangell Mountain region of Alaska. We developed a warm-season (July–September) temperature reconstruction that spans A.D. 1593–1992 based on the first eigenvector from principal component analysis of six maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 51% of the temperature variance from 1958 to 1992 and shows cold in the late 1600s–early 1700s followed by a warmer period, cooling in the late 1700s–early 1800s, and warming in the 20th century. The 20th century is the warmest of the past four centuries. Several severely cold warm-seasons coincide with major volcanic eruptions. The first eigenvector from a ring-width (RW) network, based on nine chronologies from the Wrangell Mountain region (A.D. 1550–1970), is correlated positively with both reconstructed and recorded Northern Hemisphere temperatures. RW shows a temporal history similar to that of MXD by increased growth (warmer) and decreased growth (cooler) intervals and trends. After around 1970 the RW series show a decrease in growth, while station data show continued warming, which may be related to increasing moisture stress or other factors. Both the temperature history based on MXD and the growth trends from the RW series are consistent with well-dated glacier fluctuations in the Wrangell Mountains and some of the temperature variations also correspond to variations in solar activity.     

树轮年代学的若干进展

树轮年代学是一门研究树木木质部年生长层，以及利用年生长层来定年的科学。由于树轮不仅是一种定年工具，它本身还可提供树轮生成时的环境要素信息，为一种环境变化的代用资料。在全球变化特别是在过去全球气候变化研究中，树轮年代学受到愈来愈广泛的重视，在近期内取得了长足的、惊人的进展。本文仅在树轮长年表的建立，树轮年代学生物基础研究──模式研究，利用树轮对环境要素变化的研究，以及树轮的图像分析等几个与环境变化研究相关的方面和本学科目前研究热点的若干进展，予以概要的论述。     

Tree-ring growth variability in the Austrian Alps: the influence of site, altitude, tree species and climate

We present an extensive new network of ring-width chronologies, comprising data from 100 sites within the Austrian Eastern Alps, made up of multiple tree species. Principal components analysis and cluster analysis were used to identify five separate high-frequency tree-growth signals from these data. Tree-growth variability at these sites is explained by site altitude and species differences that moderate the effects of the annually varying climatic forcing on tree growth. Recently developed, two-century long gridded climate data sets for the Greater Alpine Region were used to assess the relationship between climate and tree growth. Tree growth at low altitudes is controlled mainly by spring-summer moisture availability. At high altitudes precipitation is no longer a limiting factor and growth is mostly determined by summer temperature. In the intermediate altitudinal range, we did not find any direct relationships with specific climatic variables. High-altitude chronologies suitable for reconstructing past temperatures and low-altitude chronologies suitable for reconstructing past precipitation were identified.     

Investigating the influence of sulphur dioxide (SO2) on the stable isotope ratios (δC and δO) of tree rings

This study reports the influence of a 20th century pollution signal recorded in the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O of absolutely dated tree rings from Quercus robur and Pinus sylvestris from southern England. We identify a correspondence between the inter-relationship and climate sensitivity of stable isotope series that appears to be linked to recent trends in local SO₂ emissions. This effect is most clearly exhibited in the broadleaved trees studied but is also observed in the δ¹³C values of the (less polluted) pine site at Windsor. The SO₂ induced stomatal closure leads to a maximum increase of 2.5‰ in the isotope values (δ¹³C). The combined physiological response to high pollution levels is less in δ¹⁸O than δ¹³C. The SO₂ signal also seems to be present as a period of reduced growth in the two ring-width chronologies. Direct, quantitative correction for the SO₂ effect represents a significant challenge owing to the nature of the records and likely local plant response to environmental pollution. Whilst it appears that this signal is both limited to the late industrial period and demonstrates a recovery in line with improvements in air quality, the role of atmospheric pollution during the calibration period should not be underestimated and adequate consideration needs to be taken when calibrating biological environmental proxies in order to avoid development of biased reconstructions.     

Variations in climate since 1602 as reconstructed from tree rings

Spatial anomalies of tree-ring chronologies can provide information on high-frequency spatial anomalies in paleoclimate representing droughts, colder-than-normal intervals, and other synoptic-scale features. Examples are presented in which 65 tree-ring chronologies are calibrated with spatial anomalies in North American meteorological records of seasonal temperature and precipitation, and with sea-level pressure over the North American and North Pacific sectors. Multivariate transfer functions are obtained that scale and convert the past spatial variations in the tree-ring record into estimates of past variations in the meteorological record. Objective verifications of the reconstructions are obtained using independent meteorological observations for time periods other than those used in the calibration. Historical information or other proxy data from the 19th century are also used for verifying the decadal (or longer) and regional reconstructions and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of the various sources of information. The reconstructed winter and summer temperatures for the United States and southwestern Canada and winter precipitation for the Columbia Basin and California during the 17th through 19th centuries were found to differ from the 20th century means with large-scale variations evident. Extreme winters similar to 1976–1977 are also identified and found to be more frequent in the past, especially in the 17th century. The climatic reconstructions in this time domain are dominated by high-frequency, synoptic-scale fluctuations that can be interpreted as cyclonic-scale changes in atmospheric circulation. Such reconstructions may be useful for testing various climatic models and estimates developed primarily from 20th-century meteorological data against the longer estimated record for the 17th through 19th centuries.     

Dendrochronology for the last 1400 years in eastern Tibet

Twentyfour tree-ring chronologies of various tree-species(Picea, Abies, Larix, Juniperus) from sites near the upper timberline in eastern Tibet were established, the longest one dating back to 620 A.D. A new classification of pointer intervals is presented, distinguishing between different kinds of signatures in a tree-ring series and amount of growth change in relation to the previous year. The various types of signatures can be related to meteorological events like cold winters and summers, summer drought or to recreation reactions after years of reduced growth. The distribution pattern and type of pointer intervals combined with ring width variation enables the detection of periods of favourable or unfavourable growth conditions with regard to climate history. Based on far-distance correlations and signature analysis regions of similar tree-growth are mapped out.     

Central Scandinavian winter precipitation variability during the past five centuries reconstructed from Pinus sylvestris tree rings

Using Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) tree-ring data, winter (September-April) precipitation variability in west central Scandinavia was reconstructed for the past five centuries. The main growth-limiting factor for pine growing in the studied area is summer temperature, but there is an additional influence of precipitation. Using principal components analysis on three tree-ring-width chronologies, a time series was yielded that contained information on winter precipitation (P_w). Using tree rings, only a small part (20%) of the interannual P_w variability could be explained. However, better agreement between the modelled and measured P_w data on semi-decadal time scales (45% variance explained) suggests that tree-ring data from the west-central part of Scandinavia contain useful information on those time scales. The driest winters, disregarding the absolute beginning of the record, were found at the beginning of the 18th century; the last half of the 20th century seems to be the wettest, at least for the past 400 years. Since our precipitation reconstruction agrees fairly well with previously published precipitation proxies, it is suggested that tree rings may add useful information to future multi-proxy reconstructions.     

Reconstructed summer temperature in the northern Rocky Mountains wilderness, USA

Ring widths from whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Englem.) and subalpine larch (Larix lyallii Parl.) collected at three high-elevation sites were used to develop tree-growth chronologies to reconstruct summer temperature anomalies. A step-wise multiple regression procedure was used to screen potential predictor variables to generate a transfer function capable of skillfully reconstructing summer temperature. The resulting regression model explained approximately 38% of the adjusted variance in the instrumental temperature record. The fidelity of the reconstruction was verified using product mean and sign tests, both of which suggested significant predictive power in the reconstructions (p < 0.05). Reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) measures were both positive, indicating the reconstruction contained useful climate information. Cool periods often coincided with reduced solar activity and/or periods of increased volcanic activity. Differences between this reconstruction and others encompassing a broader geographic scale highlight the importance of developing local reconstructions of climate variability, particularly when used in conjunction with ecological data sets that describe the occurrence of fires or insect epidemics. Mixed and divergent climate-response relationships were evident in the whitebark pine chronologies and suggest subalpine larch may be a more useful species than whitebark pine to target for the development of temperature reconstructions in this region.     

大兴安岭北部多年冻土区落叶松和樟子松生长的气候响应差异研究

以大兴安岭北部根河、呼中和汗马冻土区落叶松和樟子松为样本,建立了五个树轮宽度年表,并计算获取了五个样点的树轮截面积指数（BAI）序列。树轮BAI-气候响应关系分析表明,气温为这一地区落叶松和樟子松生长的主要限制因子;但落叶松和樟子松对气候变化的响应存在差异。落叶松BAI与3月平均气温,樟子松BAI与前一年12月至当年4月平均气温均呈显著负相关。考虑到水热综合影响,落叶松BAI控制因子由1957-1990年与其呈显著正相关的1月份SPEI转变为1991-2013年与其呈显著正相关的1-4月SPEI和与其呈显著负相关的3月份平均气温;樟子松BAI控制因子则由1957-1990年与其呈显著负相关的2月和8月份平均气温转变为1991-2013年与其呈显著正相关的7月份降水量和6-7月SPEI。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,水热环境改变使得冻土区树木生长限制因子发生变化。     

Tree-ring analysis of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) in central India and its relationship with rainfall and moisture index

Tree-ring-width index chronologies of teak (Tectona grandis L.F.) from three sites in central India have been studied for their dendroclimatic potential. The existence of good correlation among the three site chronologies indicates the influence of common forcing factor to the tree growth of the region. Tree growth and climate relationship based on correlation analysis revealed the important contribution of moisture index and rainfall rather than the direct influence of the temperature on tree growth during different seasons. Significant positive relationship of moisture index and rainfall during the monsoon months as well as on the annual scale with tree-ring width variations over the region indicates the important role of moisture availability at the root zone. The results suggest that the teak tree-ring chronologies can be used as high resolution proxy for past precipitation and moisture level in the environment.     

树轮宽资料所指示的川西过去气候变化

本文利用采自我国川西高原4个地点的树轮资料,在建立树轮宽指数序列和分析所建序列与气候要素间关系的基础上,重建了川西地区1650～1994年冬季平均最低气温距平序列,并分析了其高频、低频和周期变化的特征。结果指出,在重建的345年中,冷冬发生过22年,暖冬发生过26年;有过5个变冷、5个变暖和1个稳定阶段;19世纪前半叶为暖冬期,并变幅最小;本世纪的后半叶为冷冬期,但自60年代以来的增温显著;重建序列中存在着60a左右的长周期变化。     

A ring-width-based reconstruction of June–July minimum temperatures since AD 1245 from white spruce stands in the Mackenzie Delta region,northwestern Canada

We present a reconstruction of June–July minimum temperatures since AD 1245 for the Mackenzie Delta region based on a 29-site network of white spruce (Picea glauca) ring-width series. Most but not all trees experienced a divergent temperature–growth response, similar to the divergence that has affected other white spruce trees across Yukon and Alaska. However, divergence in the study region began as early as AD 1900 and we have documented our methods to avoid including divergent signals in the reconstruction. Calibration/verification testing based on local temperature data, and multi-century coherence with nearby and large-scale temperature proxy records, confirm that our reconstruction is robust. The reconstruction shows cool conditions in the late 13th, early 18th and early 19th centuries, corresponding with solar minima and increased volcanism. These cool periods are interrupted by warm periods consistent with early to mid-20th century warmth. The late 20th century is the warmest interval, and the last decade is estimated to be 1.4°C warmer than any decade before the mid-20th century. The reconstructed climate history corroborates other proxy-based inferences and supports the notion that high-latitude regions such as the Mackenzie Delta have experienced rapid warming in recent decades that is exceptional in the last eight centuries.     

Exploring the potential of tree-ring chronologies from the Trafoi Valley (Central Italian Alps) to reconstruct glacier mass balance

Two tree-ring chronologies of stone pine ( Pinus cembra L.) and two of Norway spruce ( Picea abies Karst.) were constructed on the basis of data from three high-altitude sites in the Trafoi Valley (Central Alps, Italy) to test tree species sensitivity to climate at different sites and to explore the potential of the two species for reconstructing the mass balance of two glaciers in the same region (the Careser and Hintereis glaciers). Influence of climate on tree-ring growth and on glacier mass variations was tested by means of Pearson's correlation and response functions. At highest altitude sites, both species appeared to be sensitive to July temperatures, while stone pine also showed higher sensitivity than Norway spruce to previous winter precipitation. Comparing the dendrochronological and glaciological series, stone pine showed higher negative correlations with glacier mass balance series than Norway spruce. These different relationships reflect different species responses to climate, and stone pine is potentially useful in reconstructing past glacier mass balance in the Central Alps. Extreme climatic events induce different and even contrasting responses of tree-ring growth and glacier mass variations and may therefore bias tree-ring-based glacier mass balance reconstructions.     

Detection of a sulfur dioxide signal in a tree-ring record: a case study from Trail,British Columbia,Canada

Dendroecological analysis of tree-ring chronologies was used to determine radial growth responses of a western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) stand to climate and ambient SO₂ exposure. A unique, 32-year long record of ambient SO₂ concentrations was exploited to estimate annual SO₂ dose with a 0.25 ppm threshold. Tree-ring data were a subset from a previous study including three control sites and one polluted site that was near the location of the SO₂ monitor. An autoregression model was employed in a stagewise procedure that first removed climate effects by autoregression on the average of the controls and then estimated a dose-response relationship by autoregression of the residuals from the first stage on SO₂ exposure. Significant growth losses from air pollution were demonstrated that were approximately equal in magnitude to the variation explained by annual fluctuations of climate.     

Tree-Ring-Based Spring Temperature Patterns over the Past Four Centuries in Western Himalaya

A network of 12 tree-ring width chronologies of Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara) from the western Himalayan region, India, has been used to reconstruct mean spring (March–May) temperature variations back to A.D. 1600. The most conspicuous feature of the temperature reconstruction is the long-term cooling trend since the late 17th century that ended early in the 20th century. The warmest 30-yr mean for the 20th century was recorded during 1945–1974. However, this warming, in the context of the past four centuries is well within the range of natural variability, since warmer springs of greater magnitude occurred in the later part of the 17th century (1662–1691).